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Further comments
Starting point: What is the total number of possible responders from the
population? The answer to this can come from past campaigns.
Our aim is to have a model to (help us) build a customer segmentation arranged
in percentiles of the number of people with a certain probability to respond to
the advertisement. The top segment or percentile 1 is made up of the people
with the highest probability or likelihood to respond.
So as expected the people in the top segment will have some common profile
and as such will have similar values for their attributes to values to their
attributes
Among the total number of potential responders we would expect to have more
people to be in the segment 1/percentile1 and followed by segment
2/percentile2 etc...
The lift is defined as the number of possible responder in each segment divided
by the anticipated total number of possible responders for the whole customers
in the database (the population)
The lift and profit charts are ordered by decreasing probability of the target. The chart moves "up" when a
prediction is corrent and doesn't when a prediction is wrong. The predict probability in the legend indicates
the predict probability of the selection in the chart. That is, if you have clicked somewhere on the chart and
the legend shows predict probability = 52%, then everything to the left of the bar has a PredictProbability of
52% or greater and everything to the right has less than 52%.
This is very useful for profit charts, where you can determine the probability threshold you should use to
select candidates based on the predict probability value at the peak of the curve.