2DayInHouseDemandPlanning& ForecastingTrainingOutline

On-site Corporate Training at Your Company's Convenience! ForfurtherinformationortoscheduleIBFscorporatetrainingatyour company,pleasecontactusat: Tel:+1.516.504.7576 Email:info@ibf.org I.FundamentalsofDemandPlanning&Forecasting:People,Processes andTechnology
DemandPlanning&Forecastingisacombinationofartandscience.Whendone properly,itcanprovideatruecompetitiveedge,andfinancialbenefittothecompany. Inthismoduleyouwilllearnaboutkeybasicforecasting&planningconcepts,how forecastingrelatestoplanning,andhowtoconsideranduseforecastingerror. Furthermore,wewilldiscussforecasting&demandplanninginregardtopeople, processesandtechnology.Wewillshowyouhowtheyareusedforoptimalresults.Key terminologyandconceptswillalsobediscussedinthismodule. KeyLearnings: Learnhowtostructureademandplanningprocesstogetthebestresultsfor yourforecasting&planningefforts. Learnhowtheforecastingprocessimpactsforecastaccuracyandhowtogain forecastbuyin/acceptancewithintheorganization. Learntherolesandresponsibilitiesofkeyparticipantsintheprocessandhowto coordinatethem. Learnhowforecastsimpactmanagementdecisions. Learnthetypesofforecastingtobeconsideredindevelopingademandplanning process.

Learnabouttheneeds,goals,andperspectivesofthekeyparticipantsandusers ofthedemandforecast. Learnapproachestohandlingproductsanddatapatterns,whichareeasyto forecast,aswellasthosethataredifficulttoforecast. Learnhowtomanageanddealwithbiasacrossbusinessfunctionsandpeople towardforecasting&planning Learnwhentouseshipmentforecasts,unitforecasts,revenueforecastsas comparedtoorder(demand)forecasts Learnthebenefitsofconsumptionbasedforecasting,alsoknownasPOSdata forecasting

II.TheDemandPlanning&ForecastingProcess:BasicsofDemand ForecastingandTheirDriversforOperations/SupplyChainPlanning

Thismodulewilldelvedeeperandcoverforecastingandplanningprocessesinmore detail,includinghowtheyimpactsupplychainplanningtominimizeoperatingcostsand freeupworkingcapital,andmore.Theforecastingprocessdrivesandsupportsthekey decisionsandplanningprocessesofacompany.Animportantpartofthismodulewill includetheconsensusmeetingandbenefitsofasinglenumberforecast.Also,youwill learnhowtocomputesafetystockswithdemandforecastsandtobettermanage inventory.Keyprocessconceptsandtermswillalsobecoveredinthissession.But mostimportantly,youwilllearnprocessbestpracticesthatcanbeusedtoimproveyour demandplanningprocessandachievethebestforecastingresults. KeyLearnings: Learnwhatthebullwhipeffectis,itseffectonforecasting&planning,andhow topreventthisfromhappening Learnaboutthekeydriversandtheconsiderationsinoperationsplanning/ supplychainmanagement,andtheroleforecastingplays Learnabouttherelatedinventoryandcustomerfulfillmentissuesthatwillbeof concerntoyourcompanyoperations,andhowtomanageandhedgeagainst them Learnhowtodesignademandplanning&forecastingprocessthatisgoaland decisiondriven. Learnhowtointegratemanagementanduserneedsintotheprocess. Learnhowtoestablishprioritiesforforecasting&planning,howmuchtimeto spendandwheretospendit,aswellashowtohedgeagainsttheUn forecastable Learnhowtosetupademandplanningconsensusmeetingandbedrivenbya singlenumberforecasts

III.CollaborativeProcesses:Sales&OperationsPlanning(S&OP)and Collaborative,Planning,Forecasting,&Replenishment(CPFR)
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 AkeyuseofthedemandplanisitsinputintoSalesandOperationsPlanning(S&OP)and otherplanningprocesses.Thisprocessisusedtocoordinatethecompanysoperations inordertobalancesupplywithdemand,andtoachievekeycompanygoals.Also, CollaborativePlanning,Forecasting,&Replenishment(CPFR)isusedbymanycompanies withkeyaccountstobetterandmoreefficientlymanagetheirbusiness.Thishasbeen especiallysuccessfulformanysuppliersthathaveutilizedCPFRwithretailers.Inthis module,youwillheartheprosandconsofCPFRdrivenbyPOS/Syndicateddatafor consumercentricforecasting,andhowtouseit.Plus,successfactorsandcommon challenges,alongwithhowtodealwiththem,willbediscussed. KeyLearnings: LearnhowtodesignanoptimalS&OPprocessandmanageiteffectively Learntherelationshipandinteractionofdemandplanningandsupplychain planning LearnhowtostructureandmanagethemonthlyS&OPcycle LearnhowtoorganizeandmanageS&OPmeetingsandensuretopmanagement support LearnDemandSensing&DemandShapingforbalancingsupplywithdemandto achievecompanygoals Learnwhataresupply&demandplanningoperationallevers LearnthebasicsofCPFR,successfactors,andchallenges LearnthenatureofPOS&Syndicateddata,andthevaluablemarketintelligence theyprovide LearnhowtousePOS/syndicateddataforconsumercentricforecastingto supportCPFRactivities LearnthesourcesofsyndicateddatasuchasACNeilsonandIRI LearnhowtopilotandlaunchCPFRwithkeyaccounts/customers LearnCPFRprocessstepsandsupportingelements,suchasthebusinessplan, handlingofexceptions,andorderpolicy

IV.DataManagement,Forecasting&PlanningError,andMeasurement Metrics
Theheartofforecastingandplanningisimprovingdemandforecastaccuracythat ultimatelyleadstofavorableinventorylevels,improvedcustomerservice,anoptimized supplychain,andgreaterprofits.But,howdoesoneknowwhattoimproveifnothingis measured?Inthismoduleyouwilllearnhowtomeasureperformance,andlearnwhat thecontributingforcestotheerrorinyourforecastsandplansare.Youwillalsolearn howtocalculatethecostoferrortoyourbusinessandtrulyshowuppermanagement whatitmeanstothebottomlinetoimproveeachpercentageoferror.Also,demand planning&forecastingeffortsarebasedupontheavailabilityofreliable,relevant, standardized,andusabledata.Thismodulewillalsodiscussprocessesforgettingyour datareadyfordemandforecastinginturnbringingyoubetterresults. 3

 KeyLearnings: Learnhowtodefineandlocateimportantdataforyourforecastingeffort Learnhowtoanalyzedatatodeterminepatternsthatareusefulforyour planningandforecastingprocesses. Learnhowtocleansedataanddealwithdataoutliers,missingdata,promotional effects,events,unitofmeasuremismatches,seasonalandtrendeffects,and otherconsiderationsinensuringthatyouhaveusableandrelevantinformation Learnhowtoidentifyandmeasuretheoutsideforcesaffectingyourbusinessin ordertocreatebetterforecastsandplans. Learnaboutdifferenterrormeasurementmetrics,andtheirprosandcons,that canbeusedtobetterunderstandyourforecastingandplanningperformance LearnhowtodevelopKeyPerformanceIndicators(KPIs)thataremost appropriateandapplicabletoyourorganizationsneeds Learnaboutthecostoferror,calculatingtheimpactoferroronyourbusiness, andhowtoreduceerrorinyourforecastsandplans Learnhowtouseerrorasinformationfeedbacktoimproveyourfutureplans andforecasts,aswellasasourceofbusinessinformationforyourcompanys management

V.ForecastingModels:TimeSeriesMethods,&HowtoSelectWhichOne toUse
Therightmodelfortherightdataisvitaltoaccurateforecastingandbusinessplanning. Inthismodule,youwilllearnhowtodevelopforecastmodelsthatachieveyour accuracygoals.Essentialprinciplesofmodelevaluationandselectionwillbediscussed, alongwithwhichmodeltouseandwhen.Furthermore,variousformsandtechniques usedintimeseriesmodelswillbecovered.Asof2008,accordingtoIBF'sbenchmarking research,61%ofcompaniesusetimeseriesmethodsforforecasting.Inthismodule,you willlearnwhattypesoftimeseriesmodelsareavailable,andhowtomeasuretheir performance.Furthermore,thecharacteristics,benefits,andlimitationsofexponential smoothingwillalsobediscussedduringthishere.Keyforecastmodelconceptsand terminologywillbediscussedthroughoutthemodule.Also,datasets,templates,and exerciseswillbeprovidedtooptimizethelearning. KeyLearnings: Learnhowtoevaluateandmatchdatapatternswithforecastmodels. Learnthefundamentaldifferencesbetweentimeseriesforecastingandusing causeandeffect/regressionmodels. Learnhowtoevaluateaccuracyinselectingyourmodel,andhowtoestablishin advance,theexpectedaccuracyandrangeofforecasts Learnkeyconceptsandterminologyoftimeseriesforecastingmodelsand methods 4

Learnhowtoestimateseasonalfactors,andimproveforecastaccuracy Learnhowtodisaggregateyourbestcategorylevelforecastsintotheir respectiveSKUforecasts Learnhowtotrackandprepareforecastsusingthesalesratiomethod Learnhowprepareforecastsusingseveralmodelsbasedonaverages,aswellas exponentialsmoothing

VI.Cause&Effect/RegressionModelsforForecasting&WhenTheyare MostAppropriate
Forlongertermforecasting,whatifscenario,sensitivityanalysis,andforsituations whereitisimportanttoexplainwhatisaffectingyourbusiness,regressionforecasting models,otherwiseknownascauseandeffectforecastingmodels,areapowerfultool. Forexample,regressionmodelsallowyoutoquantifyanddeterminetheimpactofyour marketingpromotionsonsales;quantifyanddeterminetheimpactofproductprice changesonsales;andmuchmore.Plus,inthismodule,datasets,templates,and exerciseswillbeprovidedtooptimizethelearning. KeyLearnings: Learnthebenefitsofcauseandeffectmodelsaswellaswhenandhowtouse them Learnhowtobuildacauseandeffectmodelandprepareforecaststhatmeet yourneeds Learnthenecessarydatarequirements,andtransformationsthatcanmakeyour causeandeffectmodelsmoreeffective Learnhowtovalidateandgainconfidenceinyourcauseandeffectforecastsby evaluatingandputtingthemodelthroughdiagnostictestingsuchasexpost forecasting&more

VII.NewProductForecasting&Planning:MakingDecisionsWhenLittleor NoDataisAvailable
Howdoyouforecastforproductswhenyouhavelittleornohistory?Newproduct forecastingisauniqueforecastingchallengeduetoabsenceofdata,aswellasthe higherdegreeofuncertaintyassociatedwiththem.Inparticular,thismodulewillshow youtheroleofjudgmentandhowtouseitmoreeffectivelytoimprovethechancesof successinforecastingnewproducts&services.Thecommonqualitativeand quantitativemodelsusedinnewproductforecastingwillbediscussedincluding characteristics,benefits,andrisks.Plus,youwillhearhownewproductforecasting& planningisincorporatedintheS&OPprocess,andmore. KeyLearnings:

Learnwhattoexpectwhendevelopingandforecastingfornewproducts& services Learnwhatmodelsareavailabletoforecastnewproductsandhowtousethem incombination,e.g.causeandeffectmodelanddiffusionmodel. Learnhowtousebothquantitativeandqualitativemethodsincombinationto getbetterresultsinyourforecasts Learnhowtostructureanewproductdevelopmentplanningandforecasting process Learnwhoshouldbeinvolvedandwheninthenewproductforecasting& planningprocess Learnhowtomodulateyourforecastsandforecastmethodsasthenew productsapproachtheirlaunchtime Learntheroleofjudgmentandhowcollaborativeeffortsimprovenewproduct forecasts&plans.

VIII.DemandPlanning&ForecastingSoftwareSystems:Selection,Audits, andMore
Forecasting&planningismadeeasierwiththesupportofadedicateddemandplanning &forecastingsoftwareandsystems.Aftermakingsureyouhavetheproperprocessin place,thenextstepisautomatingtheprocesswithtechnology.Asthesourcesfor forecastinginputincrease,alongwiththenumberofSKUsthatrequireforecasts,itisan absolutemusttoinvestintechnologytospeeduptheforecastingprocess.Inthis module,wewilltalkaboutthepitfallsinsoftwareselectionandwhattolookforinan applicationthatisrightforyou.TheIBFisanobjectiveorganization:itdoesn'tsupport onevendoroveranother.Therefore,youwillreceiveunbiaseddirectiononhowtomeet yourtechnologyneedsinDemandPlanning&Forecastingforachievinggreaterbusiness performance. KeyLearnings: Learnwhyitisimportanttodeterminetheprocessfirstandthendecideonthe systemthatalignswiththeprocess Learnwhoshouldbeinvolvedinidentifyingtheprocessyouneedaswellas validatingtheprocesspriortoasoftwareapplicationrollout Learntheprosandconsofusingsoftwaretoautomateprocesses Learnwhatattributestolookforinaforecastingsoftware/systemthatisbest foryou Learnhowtodeterminetheneedforaforecasting&demandplanning application

IX.CorporateBenchmarks,BestPractices,andGainingBuyinThrough BetterCommunicationinDemandPlanning&Forecasting
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Animportantframeofreferenceiswhathasemergedasbenchmarksandbestpractices bysuccessfulcompanies.Usinginformationgatheredovermanyyearsthrough contributorstoIBFconferencesandpublications,aswellasthroughsurveyscompleted byIBFmembers,bestpracticesandbenchmarkshavebeendevelopedcoveringmany areasoftheforecasting&planningdiscipline.Alongwithbenchmarks,thismodulewill alsocoverhowdemandplanningandforecastingprofessionalsshouldpresenttheir forecastsandplanstogainorganizationalbuyin.Thiswillincludeguidelinesfor effectivemeetings,reports,behavior,presentations,andmore. KeyLearnings: Learnaboutdealingwithdifficultpeople,resolvingconflict,dealingwitharange ofpeoplewhohavedifferentneedsandpriorities Learnthebasicsofrunninganeffectivereviewmeeting,howtostructurean appropriateagenda,andhowtopreparethemosteffectivepresentation materials. Learnhowtomoreeffectivelycommunicatewithdifferentlevelsof managementandprofessionalsandmanagersindifferentfunctionalareasofthe company Learnsomeofthemostimportantcharacteristicsincommunicatingforecasts basedupontheexperienceofdemandplanners&forecastersatbestinclass companies Learnhowtousebenchmarkingforalldimensionsofyourforecasting& planningactivities Learnaboutthesuccessfactorsandbestpracticesintheforecasting&planning process. Learnaboutthebestpracticesofcompaniesindevelopingmodelsand accuratelyforecastingwiththem Learnhowbestpractices/bestinclasscompaniesusesoftwaretosupporttheir forecastingmodelsanddataneeds,aswellashowtheytracktheiraccuracyover time

ForfurtherinformationortoscheduleIBFscorporatetrainingatyour company,pleasecontactusat: Tel:+1.516.504.7576 Email:info@ibf.org