BAKED GOODS IN CANADA

Euromonitor International December 2013

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LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

Headlines ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................ 3 Prospects ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Category Data .............................................................................................................................. 5 Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2008-2013 ............................. 5 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2008-2013 ................................ 5 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2008-2013 ............ 6 Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2008-2013 ............... 6 Sales of Packaged/Industrial Bread by Type: % Value Breakdown 2008-2013 .................................................................................................... 6 Sales of Packaged/Industrial Cakes by Single Portion vs Multi-pack: % Value 2008-2013...................................................................................... 7 NBO Company Shares of Baked Goods: % Value 2009-2013 ..................... 7 LBN Brand Shares of Baked Goods: % Value 2010-2013 ........................... 7 Distribution of Baked Goods by Format: % Value 2008-2013 ...................... 8 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2012-2017 .............. 8 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2012-2017 ................. 9 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2012-2017 .................................................................................................... 9 Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 20122017 ........................................................................................................... 10

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BAKED GOODS IN CANADA

HEADLINES
In 2013, baked goods grows by 3% in current retail value terms to reach C$7 billion, while retail volume sales grow marginally to 921,000 tonnes Healthy demand for artisanal and ethnic breads continues Gluten-free bakery remains on the agenda, posting a 10% increase in current value terms Slower volume trends are indicative of price increases supported by higher-priced artisanal products George Weston Ltd continues to lead with a 14% value share in baked goods in 2013 Over the forecast period, retail sales are expected to see a CAGR of 2% and 1% in constant value and volume terms respectively

TRENDS
The baked goods category continues to be influenced by two key factors relatively slow population growth in Canada and a high level of household penetration. Both factors leave little room for significant volume growth, thereby encouraging manufacturers and retailers to think through their strategies to drive sales growth in value terms. Shifting preferences towards artisanal, fresh, ethic and value-added baked goods then remain on the agenda as these typically command higher prices, being sold through in-store supermarket bakeries or stand-alone bakeries and other food specialists. In 2013, artisanal bread continued to grow, posting 5% growth in value terms and 2% in volume terms. These gains in sales, however, come at the expense of packaged/industrial bread, which posted much slower growth in 2013 (marginal growth in volume terms and 2% value growth). In actual value and volume terms, however, pre-packaged/industrial bread still outsells artisanal, with total sales of the former achieving C$3 billion in 2013. While many Canadians have been moving towards artisanal freshly-baked breads, willing to pay higher prices for the products, a large consumer base of mid- to low-income Canadians still exists and continues to choose value pre-packaged products, thereby sustaining the substantial packaged breads marketplace. The consumption of ethnic bread in Canada shows healthy gains, in both artisanal and packaged breads. For example, driven by the growing proportion of immigrants from India, Indian breads are seeing solid upper single digit gains, also supported by purchases from non-Indian shoppers. Other types of bread, such as the Middle Eastern pita and specialty bread like ciabatta bread, have also gained traction in Canada. Although the main consumption of specialty bread is attributed to specific nationalities, more varied and diverse people are consuming these ethnic baked goods. This trend is particularly noticeable in the ethnic supermarket Adonis that was bought by Metro. More nationalities are shopping in this retailer while buying country-specific products like pita bread. Bread has a 100% household penetration and will continue to show continuous growth as the population in Canada increases. A 3% growth rate in retail value is anticipated for 2013. The increase in market value is explained by the growing tendency by Canadian consumers to direct their spending towards more expensive bakery products. Bread has been part of the daily Canadian diet, and will continue to be. However, consumers are finding more value in spending more on freshly-baked bread. Artisanal bread is more expensive than packaged

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bread, and this is reflected in the price of each unit (C$8 vs. C$6 per kg). As the trend is continuing its development towards artisanal bread, the category can expect value growth. Gluten-free bakery also continues to see demand and growth, posting a 10% rise in current value to reach C$16 million in 2013. Many Canadians continue to explore products they perceive as healthier for their overall general wellbeing. Even though the principal use of gluten-free products is to manage celiac disease with an estimated consumer base of over 300,000 Canadians according to information from the Canadian Digestive Health Foundation some Canadians not affected by the decease opt for gluten-free bakery goods as they see them as a healthier option. Product development also helps to support demand and sales, with mainstream manufacturers exploring opportunities in the category. Thus, for instance, George Weston introduced a new line of gluten-free baked goods under the All But Gluten brand. The consumer perception, however, is that gluten-free bread is not very tasty. However, industry players indicate that the manufacturers are working on improving the taste of these products to enlarge their consumer base across Canada. High-fibre bread, typically positioned as naturally healthier compared with white bread, continued to see stronger demand. In 2013, sales of high-fibre bread saw growth of 5% in current value terms and 2% in volume terms. The trend towards whole wheat and whole grain bread is present in both packaged industrial and artisanal bread. However, it has to be said that in artisanal breads, quality, freshness and variety often take precedence over high fibre content, and white bread varieties are not suffering as much as they are in the packaged/industrial category. All in all, many Canadians continue to seek food options that are seen as healthier, high-fibre bread included. A typical Canadian breakfast includes toast, and many Canadians are purchasing high-fibre bread in order to start the day on a healthier note by adding fibre to their daily nutrition. Organic bread in 2013 is anticipated to see value growth of 3% and marginal volume growth by the end of the year. While an overall trend towards products with organic and natural claims does exist in Canada, it does not affect all food categories in the same way, and bread is one example of a category where organic claims have limited appeal to most Canadians. This fact is also reflected in the product withdrawal for some of the mainstream brand varieties that came out earlier in the review period with an organic logo, such as Dempsters. Consumers respond better to products positioned as natural, free from preservatives and other artificial ingredients. Within cakes and pastries, trends mirror somewhat those in bread as unpackaged/artisanal products see better demand, supported by both stand-alone bakeries and pastry shops and by in-store bakeries in supermarkets and hypermarkets that offer a wide variety of freshlymade cakes and pastries. The pastries category has retail sales of C$1 billion, posting growth of 3% in 2013, with artisanal/unpackaged products supporting the growth. The tendency towards freshly-baked products is also reflected in volume growth tendencies, with packaged/industrial in decline by 1% in volume terms, while unpackaged/artisanal is seeing growth of 1%. Cakes are seeing a similar dynamic, with unpackaged/artisanal cakes recording growth of 4% in current value terms and volume growth of 1%, while the packaged/industrial category is witnessing a decline in value and volume by 2% and 4%, respectively. Within cakes and pastries, products with healthier attributes, such as organic and reduced fat/reduced sugar, have limited appeal. Most Canadians see these as indulgent and affordable luxuries, and taste takes priority over health (except for products specifically developed for those with diabetes and celiac decease). Healthy in these products typically refers to freshness and a lack of artificial preservatives. In 2013, the percentage of total sales for single portion of cakes is 90% versus 10% for multi portion servings. While single portion varieties within industrial cakes are well established in

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Canada and still have a strong presence in grocery stores, the products continue to see decline in demand and sales, mostly due to their perceived unhealthy attributes and the availability of fresher choices for those moments of indulgence. While manufacturers like Saputo attempted to develop products with healthier attributes, such as reduced fat, it did not help to reverse the declining trend. Bread substitutes continue to see a positive trend, rising by 4% in current value and 1% in volume, to achieve C$84 million. While product development and marketing for the products has been somewhat limited over the review period, the products are well represented and well positioned in retail, with demand stemming from an established consumer base of Canadians (typically women) seeking products that help weight loss/weight management.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
George Weston Ltd remains the leading manufacturer of baked goods in Canada, accounting for a 14% share of total retail sales in 2013. The company markets well-established brands, including Wonder Bread, DItaliano, Country Harvest and Weston. The companys share, however, has seen a slight dip, in part due to competitive activity in industrial as well as artisanal bread, and in part due to its high exposure in white bread. The company has, however, been strengthening its nutritional profile to support growth and maintain relevance to changing consumer demands through product development, such as Country Harvest Cranberry Muesli and Flax and Quinoa breads, DItaliano Brizzolio rolls, Gadoua Pain de Mnage, and the Flat Oven bakery line of international flatbreads. These additions contributed positively to the companys sales. The company is also exploring targeting specific dietary requirements. In 2013, it introduced a line of baked goods called All But Gluten, tapping into the demand for gluten-free bakery products in Canada. Canada Bread Co follows closely behind with a value share of 13%. The company mainly operates in packaged/industrial bread and its success can be attributed to brands such as Dempsters bread. Canada bread Co brands held a 28% share in industrial/packaged bread in 2013. Unlike George Weston Co, Canada Bread Co has posted positive results for its bakery business in 2013. The company is improving the efficiency of its bakeries in Canada by improving its manufacturing costs and reducing the cost of raw materials. Through these activities, Canada bread Co is positioning itself better to readjust to the changing landscape of the bakery business. Also supporting growth are new products offered by the company, such as artisan ciabatta launched in 2012 (round and triangle shape), which will diversify and increase the sales of the company for specialty bread. Artisanal and private label products have continued to increase their respective market share in baked goods. In 2013, artisanal baked products accounted for a 39% share of total retail sales, and private label for 21%. Artisanal products offer a wide range of products, including specialty products from ethnic breads to gluten-free options, through stand-alone bakeries and in-store bakeries and pastry sections. With respect to the latter, while not a new trend as such, there is a tendency towards well-developed in-store bakeries that emphasise products as freshly made by on-site bakers. The leading private label lines are Loblaws Presidents Choice with an 11% value share, followed by Sobeyss Compliments with 8% and by Metro Inc. with 1%. Private label products are also seeing development, allowing the retailers to offer a wide range of products. Private label is typically strong in packaged/industrial bread. For instance, the Presidents Choice luxury private label line under the Black Label name features products like Cinnamon Torta de Aceite sweet flatbreads imported from Spain and marketed as authentic and traditionally hand-baked Spanish flatbreads.

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In gluten-free bakery products the leading player is Kinnikinnick Foods Inc. The companys share has increased by 1 percentage point since 2012 to 32%. In the gluten-free category, good taste is a priority, and manufacturers like Kinnikinnick are constantly trying to innovate to improve taste. Additionally, the company is active in promotional activity and also discounts to encourage purchases.

PROSPECTS
Baked goods is expected to see a constant value CAGR of 2% over the forecast period. Volume sales are set to grow by 1% annually, which indicates that most of the value growth in this category will come from unit price increases as the category is already mature and has a near 100% household penetration. Price increases will be the factor of two trends outright increases in prices to compensate for production costs as well as the expected further shift towards products seen as better quality and fresh, including artisanal products. Over the forecast period, unpackaged/artisanal bread will continue to see the better performance compared with packaged/industrial bread. The former is expected to see a constant value CAGR of 3% and a 2% CAGR in volume terms, while packaged/industrial will see a 1% constant value and volume CAGR. Both categories are expected to see further product development to support value growth, since volume is hard to drive forward beyond population growth with an already nearly universal household penetration. Product development will continue to evolve around ethnic breads, fresh products, novelty and variety in recipes, as well as products developed for those who seek foods for specific dietary conditions, such as gluten-free products. To further sustain interest in artisanal bread and draw attention to bakery sections, retailers might consider staging demonstrations showcasing a variety of breads and their origins and place within specific cultures as well as providing serving and pairing suggestions. Bread substitutes are expected to see a respectable CAGR 2% in constant value and volume terms over the 2013-2018 period. The category does not present too many opportunities for significant price increases or significant developments in artisanal products, which is reflected in the smaller gap between the expected value and volume growth trends. However, all in all, demand will continue to be driven by consumers seeking to manage their weight and reduce their calorie and fat intake. Gluten-free products are expected to record a CAGR of 8% in constant value terms over the forecast period. A lifelong gluten-free diet is the only way to avoid the symptoms and the complications of celiac disease, which afflicts over 300,000 Canadians. With improved product variety and taste, family members of those affected by the condition might consider incorporating gluten-free products into their own diet to simply save on purchasing different types of baked goods for different family members. Although controversial due to the lack of scientific support, some Canadians have also adopted gluten-free diets to be healthier and are expected to continue to turn to the products in the coming years. The threat to growth among these consumers is the lack of scientific basis behind the choice this diet may only have a short-term effect like any other fad diet. Packaged/industrial cakes is one of the categories that will suffer from a drop in sales over the forecast period. A decline of 2% between 2013 and 2018 will reduce the market value for cakes. Key players like Saputo are posting negative results in this category and the Hostess brand declared bankruptcy. However, as in other categories, artisanal cakes will see positive results. The ability of pastry shops and bakeries to offer a wide range of fresh products and constantly innovate will help sales. A decline for industrial pastries in volume terms is also

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expected, while unpackaged/artisanal pastries will record positive results over the forecast period. Organic bread is set to post a constant value CAGR of 2% and a 1% volume CAGR over 2013-2018, indicating that some consumers will be willing to pay higher unit prices for what they perceive to be a nutritiously better product. In actual sales, however, this will remain a comparatively small category within baked goods. The same tendency will be seen in organic cakes and pastries. Naturally healthy/high-fibre breads are expected to see a better performance as these are promoted as healthier compared with white bread. The trend will remain stronger in packaged/industrial bread, while in artisanal, once again, quality, taste, freshness and variety will remain the key driving forces.

CATEGORY DATA
Table 1 '000 tonnes 2008 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2008-2013

2009 646.9 6.6 478.9 161.4 78.2 30.4 47.9 158.5 81.9 76.6 883.7

2010 663.5 6.7 492.4 164.3 78.3 30.2 48.0 159.8 82.5 77.3 901.6

2011 667.9 6.8 494.9 166.2 77.9 29.6 48.3 161.4 83.3 78.1 907.2

2012 676.4 6.9 499.6 169.9 78.6 30.0 48.6 162.1 82.7 79.4 917.2

2013 680.5 7.0 501.1 172.4 78.0 29.0 49.1 162.2 82.1 80.1 920.7

628.8 6.4 463.6 158.8 78.1 30.6 47.5 157.4 81.2 76.2 864.3

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 2 C$ million

Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2008-2013

2008 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes 3,582.9 66.5 2,447.5 1,068.9 727.2 276.6 450.6

2009 3,756.0 69.0 2,577.5 1,109.5 732.8 277.7 455.1

2010 3,949.2 71.1 2,709.7 1,168.3 744.7 277.9 466.8

2011 4,109.8 76.1 2,805.6 1,228.1 759.8 279.0 480.8

2012 4,250.2 80.6 2,880.1 1,289.5 782.8 285.9 496.8

2013 4,379.5 84.1 2,947.2 1,348.2 796.4 280.2 516.2

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Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods

Source:

1,163.3 588.6 574.7 5,473.3

1,198.1 600.5 597.6 5,686.9

1,234.4 612.4 622.1 5,928.3

1,272.1 624.9 647.1 6,141.7

1,311.8 637.0 674.7 6,344.8

1,349.6 648.5 701.1 6,525.6

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Table 3 % volume growth

Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2008-2013

2012/13 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2008-13 CAGR 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 0.0 -1.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.0 1.3

2008/13 Total 8.2 9.7 8.1 8.6 -0.1 -5.2 3.3 3.0 1.1 5.1 6.5

0.6 1.4 0.3 1.5 -0.7 -3.5 1.0 0.0 -0.8 0.9 0.4

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Table 4

Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2008-2013

% current value growth 2012/13 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2008-13 CAGR 4.1 4.8 3.8 4.8 1.8 0.3 2.8 3.0 2.0 4.1 3.6

2008/13 Total 22.2 26.6 20.4 26.1 9.5 1.3 14.6 16.0 10.2 22.0 19.2

3.0 4.4 2.3 4.6 1.7 -2.0 3.9 2.9 1.8 3.9 2.8

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Table 5 % retail value rsp

Sales of Packaged/Industrial Bread by Type: % Value Breakdown 2008-2013

2008 Bagels Buns & Rolls English Muffins 10.4 15.1 2.5

2009 10.3 15.0 2.4

2010 10.1 14.8 2.3

2011 9.9 14.7 2.2

2012 9.9 14.6 2.2

2013 9.6 14.2 2.1

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Multigrain Sandwich Pita Specialty Bread Tortilla White Sandwich Wholewheat Sandwich Others Total
Source:

11.3 3.5 12.6 6.6 18.6 17.5 1.9 100.0

11.5 3.6 12.7 6.7 18.2 17.7 1.9 100.0

11.6 3.7 12.8 6.8 18.1 17.9 1.9 100.0

11.8 3.8 12.9 6.9 17.9 18.1 1.9 100.0

11.9 3.8 13.3 6.9 17.7 18.1 1.6 100.0

12.1 3.7 14.0 6.8 17.3 18.8 1.5 100.0

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Table 6

Sales of Packaged/Industrial Cakes by Single Portion vs Multi-pack: % Value 2008-2013

% retail value rsp 2008 Single Portion Multi Portion Total

Source:

2009 94.0 6.0 100.0

2010 93.9 6.1 100.0

2011 94.0 6.0 100.0

2012 91.0 9.0 100.0

2013 90.0 10.0 100.0

94.1 5.9 100.0

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Table 7 % retail value rsp Company

NBO Company Shares of Baked Goods: % Value 2009-2013

2009 14.3 12.8 11.1 8.5 4.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 38.0 8.8 100.0

2010 14.5 12.9 11.1 8.6 4.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 38.1 8.5 100.0

2011 14.4 12.7 10.9 8.5 4.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 38.4 9.1 100.0

2012 13.9 12.4 10.6 8.2 3.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 38.8 10.3 100.0

2013 13.7 12.9 10.7 8.4 3.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 39.3 9.4 100.0

George Weston Ltd Canada Bread Co Loblaws Cos Ltd Sobeys Inc Culinar Inc Metro Inc Kellogg Canada Inc Dare Foods Ltd Sara Lee Corp Artisanal Others Total
Source:

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Table 8 % retail value rsp Brand

LBN Brand Shares of Baked Goods: % Value 2010-2013

Company Loblaws Cos Ltd Sobeys Inc Canada Bread Co George Weston Ltd Culinar Inc George Weston Ltd George Weston Ltd

2010 11.1 8.6 6.6 5.9 3.8 3.0 2.7

2011 10.9 8.5 6.6 5.8 3.6 2.9 2.8

2012 10.6 8.2 6.6 5.6 3.5 2.8 2.7

2013 10.7 8.4 6.8 5.5 3.3 2.8 2.7

President's Choice Compliments Dempster's Wonder Bread Vachon D'Italiano Country Harvest

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Weston Irresistibles Other Private Label Ryvita Kellogg's Pop Tarts Hostess Melba Grissol Chevalier Sara Lee Artisanal Others Total
Source:

George Weston Ltd Metro Inc George Weston Ltd Kellogg Canada Inc Culinar Inc Dare Foods Ltd Dare Foods Ltd Canada Bread Co Sara Lee Corp

2.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 38.1 13.9 100.0

2.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 38.4 14.5 100.0

2.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 38.8 15.4 100.0

2.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 39.3 14.7 100.0

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Table 9 % retail value rsp

Distribution of Baked Goods by Format: % Value 2008-2013

2008 Store-Based Retailing - Grocery Retailers -- Modern Grocery Retailers --- Convenience Stores --- Discounters --- Forecourt Retailers --- Hypermarkets --- Supermarkets -- Traditional Grocery Retailers --- Food/drink/tobacco specialists --- Independent Small Grocers --- Other Grocery Retailers - Non-Grocery Retailers -- Health and Beauty Retailers -- Mixed Retailers -- Other Non-Grocery Retailers Non-Store Retailing - Vending - Homeshopping - Internet Retailing - Direct Selling Total
Source:

2009 99.9 98.1 71.6 0.8 5.4 2.0 13.7 49.7 26.5 12.6 5.8 8.1 1.8 1.8 0.1 0.1 100.0

2010 99.9 98.5 72.5 0.5 5.8 1.8 14.8 49.6 26.0 12.5 5.4 8.1 1.4 1.4 0.1 0.1 100.0

2011 99.9 98.9 73.1 0.5 5.9 1.7 15.6 49.4 25.8 12.5 5.3 8.0 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 100.0

2012 99.9 99.0 73.7 0.4 6.0 1.5 16.3 49.4 25.3 12.5 5.1 7.7 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 100.0

2013 99.9 97.5 73.7 0.4 6.1 1.3 16.5 49.4 23.8 12.2 4.6 7.0 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 100.0

99.9 97.8 71.2 0.8 5.3 2.0 13.4 49.7 26.6 12.6 5.8 8.2 2.1 2.1 0.1 0.1 100.0

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Table 10 '000 tonnes

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Volume 2012-2017

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

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Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

680.5 7.0 501.1 172.4 78.0 29.0 49.1 162.2 82.1 80.1 920.7

686.5 7.1 503.8 175.6 77.7 28.1 49.7 162.8 81.9 80.9 927.1

693.8 7.2 507.8 178.8 77.7 27.3 50.3 163.6 81.7 81.9 935.1

701.3 7.3 512.2 181.7 77.8 26.7 51.1 164.6 81.6 82.9 943.7

708.7 7.4 516.5 184.8 78.2 26.0 52.1 165.6 81.5 84.1 952.5

715.2 7.5 520.2 187.5 78.6 25.5 53.2 166.5 81.3 85.2 960.3

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Table 11 C$ million

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: Value 2012-2017

2013 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2014 4,451.3 86.0 2,976.7 1,388.7 799.4 271.8 527.6 1,366.7 649.5 717.2 6,617.4

2015 4,539.0 87.6 3,019.5 1,431.9 805.2 265.0 540.2 1,385.8 651.4 734.4 6,730.1

2016 4,630.6 89.2 3,066.6 1,474.8 812.9 259.2 553.8 1,406.3 652.8 753.5 6,849.9

2017 4,719.6 90.7 3,112.6 1,516.3 822.0 253.3 568.7 1,428.5 654.6 773.9 6,970.2

2018 4,799.4 92.1 3,154.0 1,553.2 831.8 248.3 583.5 1,448.9 656.1 792.8 7,080.1

4,379.5 84.1 2,947.2 1,348.2 796.4 280.2 516.2 1,349.6 648.5 701.1 6,525.6

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Table 12 % volume growth

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Volume Growth 2012-2017

2017/18 Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 -2.2

2013-18 CAGR 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.7 0.1 -2.5

2013/18 Total 5.1 6.2 3.8 8.7 0.7 -12.1

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10

- Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods

Source:

2.0 0.5 -0.3 1.3 0.8

1.6 0.5 -0.2 1.2 0.8

8.3 2.7 -1.0 6.4 4.3

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Table 13

Forecast Sales of Baked Goods by Category: % Value Growth 2012-2017

% constant value growth 2013-18 CAGR Bread - Bread Substitutes - Packaged/Industrial Bread - Unpackaged/Artisanal Bread Cakes - Packaged/Industrial Cakes - Unpackaged/Artisanal Cakes Pastries - Packaged/Industrial Pastries - Unpackaged/Artisanal Pastries Baked Goods
Source:

2013/18 TOTAL 9.6 9.5 7.0 15.2 4.4 -11.4 13.0 7.4 1.2 13.1 8.5

1.8 1.8 1.4 2.9 0.9 -2.4 2.5 1.4 0.2 2.5 1.6

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