American Association for Public Opinion Research

On Communication Models in the Social Sciences Author(s): Karl W. Deutsch Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Autumn, 1952), pp. 356-380 Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2745780 . Accessed: 12/06/2011 04:59
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On in the

Models Communication
Social Sciences
munications models for the evaluation of certain critical aspects of organizational behavior. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Conference on Organizational Behavior held under the auspices of the Organizational Behavior Project at Princeton University in March 1952.

BY KARL W. DEUTSCH
Models defined broadly by the author as structures of symbols and rules designed to correspond to the relevant points of an existing structure or process, are indispensable to the study and understanding of social organizations. In this article, Dr. Deutsch lays special emphasis on the implications of cor-

IN

RECENT YEARS,

increasing attention has been paid to both the use

of symbols in the process of thinking, and to the problems that arise when symbols are combined into larger configurations or models -particularly when these models are then used as an aid in investigating or forecasting events that occur in the world outside the thinking system. One important use of such models is in describing the behavior of social organizations. The organizations to be described may be informal groups, they may be political units or agencies of government, or they may be industrial or business organizations. Each of these organizations is composed of parts which communicate with each other by means of messages; it receives further messages from the outside world; it stores information derived from messages in certain facilities of memory; and all these functions together may involve a configuration of processes,and perhaps of message flow, that goes clearly beyond any single element within the system. Whenever we are discussing the past or future behavior of such an organization, we must use a model for it, and much of the effectiveness of our discussion may depend upon the degree of similarity or dissimilarity between the model and the thing supposedly modeled. Investigation of such models, therefore, is more than a mere play upon some fine points in the theory of knowledge. We are using models, willingly or not, whenever we are trying to think systematically about anything at all. The results of our thinking in each case will depend upon what elements we put into our model, what rules and

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structure we imposedon thoseelements,and upon what actualuse we made of the ensemble of possibilitieswhich this particularmodel offered. In one sensethe studyof models,and the theoryof organizations that could be derived from it, cuts acrossmany of the traditional divisionsbetweenthe naturaland social sciences,as well as between the particular social sciencesthemselves.In all these fields, symbols areusedto describe of patterns the accumulation and preservation from the past and theirarrangement selfinto moreor less self-maintaining, models are or The then resulting destroying, self-transforming systems. used to describefurtherthe impact of outsideeventsupon such systemsand the responses which eachsystemmakesto them.In this manner we use modelsin describing the behaviorof a socialgroup,or of a state,or of a nation,or of the memoriesand preferences that make we use an individual In a similar models in up personality. way, a systemof logic, or in suggestinga theoryof games,or in describing describingthe behaviorof an arrayof communications machinery. of models The present paperwill beginwith a verybriefdiscussion of somework published in the abstract and a briefsummary previously on the subject.Its next sectionwill considersome generalfunctions of models and some yardsticks by which their performance may be discuss some differences section will between evaluated. The following in the social sciencesand some possible genuine and pseudo-models misusesof mathematical languagein the socialsciences.The last and with some implicationsof communications will deal section longest it will consider In particular, models for the study of organizations. the implicationsof such models for the evaluationof organizations in termsof the degreeof autonomy,self-consciousness, initiative,and which the observable for growthandlearning maybe foundin capacity of each organization. and behavior structure
SOME EARLIER WORK ON MODELS

of symbolsand operatingrules By a model is meant a structure which is supposedto match a set of relevantpoints in an existing for the unModelsof this kind are indispensable or process. structure The alternative to their more of only complexprocesses. derstanding or processto the structure use would be an attemptto "graspdirectly" that is to say, to match it completelypoint for point. be understood;

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This is manifestlyimpossible. We use maps or anatomical atlasespreor completehuman ciselybecausewe cannotcarrycompletecountries bodiesin our heads. Each model impliesa theoryasserting a structural correspondence between the model and certainaspectsof the thing supposedto be modeled.It also implies judgmentsof relevance;it suggeststhat the are in fact the important particular aspectsto which it corresponds of the of for the the model makersor users. aspects thing purposes a model, if it is operational, which Furthermore, implies predictions can be verifiedby physicaltests.A rough surveyof majormodelsused in human thinking in the courseof history suggeststhat there has beena changein the character of the modelsthatpredominated in each and it been that has a from to period, gradualchange pictures fullmodels in the modern sense. fledged A more extendeddiscussion of the generalrelationship of models to knowledgehas been given in two papersby the presentwriterand Society,"' and "Mechanism, "Mechanism, Organism Teleologyand Mind."2 I do not proposeto repeatthe descriptions given in them, but I shall referto them for the use of thosereaders who may wish to go more thoroughlyinto the background of the discussion that follows. other these two contain discussions of a things, Among papers numberof primitivemodels,3 and of the classicalconceptsof mechaAll three classicalconcepts nism, organism,and of historical process.4 were found to have majorshortcomings. Mechanism cannotrepresent of extensive areincapable internalrearrangement; evolution;organisms modelsof historical have thus far lackedinner structure and processes quantitative predictability. therehas been a revivalin a type During the last two generations of modelrelatedto mechanism. It has,however,beenderivednot from the classical image of clockwork,but ratherfrom the image of circulating systemsof liquids,pumps,and valves.An earlyclassicapplying the analogyof pumps,pipes,and valvesto the circulation of the blood had been Harvey'sOn the Motion of the Heart. Morerecentapplica1 Deutsch, Karl W., "Mechanism, Organism and Society," Philosophy of Science, vol. I8, no. 3 (July I95I), pp. 230-252; henceforth referred to as MOS. 2 Deutsch, Karl W., "Mechanism,Teleology and Mind," Philosophical and Phenomenological Research, vol. 12, no. 2 (December 1951), pp. 185-222; henceforth referred to as MTM. 3 MOS, pp. 232-233.

4 MTM, pp. I87-192; MOS, pp. 234-239.

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of money tions of the flow idea have been the conceptsof circulation and goods in economics,and of ambitiouswould-be politiciansin of the elite.SigmundFreud's VilfredoPareto's theoryof the circulation in some image of the libido of an individual,which when repressed force an outlet in some other aspect mannerwill seek with increased a of his personality, has been accused by K. S. Lashleyof representing In any case, the analogy between the systemof "psychohydraulics." movementof psychologicalmoods and of bodily liquids-as in the ambiguoususe of the word "humour"-has been old in medicine. While many of these flow models have been very crude, some flow models have reacheda considerable degree of quantitative precision. Here we may think of the flow chartsof industrial engineeringand of traffic level,of the outputand,on a far moresophisticated engineering, and the of the school economics of economics input VassilyLeontieff, of John Maynard Keynes. All these flow models,however,take their channelconfigurations for granted. They try to predict,so to speak,how muchwaterwill flow river a bed, ratherthan when and where the river will dig through itselfa new one.Differently learning. put,flow modelscannotrepresent Those aspectsof realitywhich are connectedwith learningprocesses theyusuallymusttakefor granted(thus,the technological "production function"or the popular"propensity to consume"in Keynesianeconomics). They cannotdeal easilywith changesin technologyor tastes and have often tried to pass these unwantedbabiesto the other social factors." sciencesunder the title of "non-economic models been derivedfrom developanother has of Finally, group ments in neuro-physiology and communications engineering,as indicated by Walter B. Cannon'sconceptof "homeostasis"5 and Norbert and problems Wiener's"cybernetics." Someof the properties of cybernetic modelshave been extensively in Wiener'sCybernetics6 discussed and The Human Use of Human Beings: Cybernetics and Society.7 models I have tried to outline Startingfrom these communications certainspecific-and, it is hoped,operational-concepts of socialcom5 Cannon, Walter B., The Wisdom of the Body, New York: Norton, 1932. 6 Wiener, Norbert, Institute of Technology Cybernetics,Cambridge, New York: Massachusetts Press and John Wiley, 1948. 7 Wiener, Norbert, The Human Use of Human Beings: Cybernetics and Society, Boston:
Houghton Mifflin, 1950.

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munication for the description of such problems or processes as recognition,novelty,values,learningcapacity, consciousness, will, autonomy, and growth.8 integrity,openness, The present paper will consist of a few commentson general standards accordingto which models in the social sciencesmight be evaluated,of discussionof a number of specificpicturesof models and control, and of the suggestedby the theory of communication which specificresearch approaches they might suggest.
THE EVALUATION OF MODELS

We may think of modelsas serving,moreor less imperfectly, four distinct functions: the organizing,the heuristic,the predictive,and the measuring(or mensurative). By the organizingfunction is meant the ability of a model to orderandrelatedisjointed or connections data,and to show similarities betweenthem which had previously remainedunperceived. To make isolatedpiecesof information fall suddenlyinto a meaningfulpattern is to furnish an esthetic experience;ProfessorPaul Lazarsfeldonce described it as the "Aha!-experience" familiarto psychologists.9 Such facilitate its in and organization may storage memory, perhapseven more its recall. If the new modelorganizes information aboutunfamiliar processes in terms of images borrowedfrom familiarevents,we call it an explanation.The operationalfunction of an explanationis that of a trainingor teaching device which facilitatesthe transferof learned habits from a familiar to an unfamiliarenvironment.If it actually does help us to transfersome familiar behaviorpattern to a new or even problem,we may feel that the explanationis "satisfactory," that it "satisfies our curiosity," at leastfor a time. Such an explanation might be subjectively satisfyingwithout being predictive;it would some but memsatisfy persons not others,dependingon each person's ories and habits,and since it yields no predictions that can be tested it would be rejectedby some scientistsas a by physicaloperations, "mereexplanation" which would be operationally meaningless.10
8MTM,

9 Paul Lazarsfeld at a meeting of the Columbia University Seminar on Methods in the Social
Sciences, March 12, I95I.

pp.

192-216;

MOS, pp. 243-252.

10 Conant, James B., On Understanding Science, New Haven: Yale University Press, 1947; cf. also Bridgman, P. W., The Logic of Modern Physics, New York: Macmillan, 1927.

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Certainly, such "mere explanations" are models of a very low order. It seems, however, that explanations almost invariably imply some predictions; even if these predictions cannot be verified by techniques practicable at the present time, they may yet serve as heuristic devices leading to the discovery of new facts and new methods.11 The heuristic function of a model may be independent to a considerable degree from its orderliness or organizing power, as well as from its predictive and mensurative performance. Little has to be said about the predictive function of a model, beyond the well known requirement of verifiability by physical operations. There are different kinds of prediction, however, which form something of a spectrum. At one extreme we find simple yes-or-no predictions; at higher degrees of specificity we get qualitative predictions of similarity or matching, where the result is predicted to be of this kind or of that kind, or of this particular delicate shade; and at the other extreme we find completely quantitative predictions which may give us elaborate time series which may answer the questions of when and how much.12 At this extreme, models become related to measurement. If the model is related to the thing modeled by laws which are not clearly understood, the data it yields may serve as indicants. If it is connected to the thing modeled by processes clearly understood, we may call the data obtained with its help a measure-and measures again may range all the way from simple rank orderings, to full-fledged ratio scales.13
11 For the concept of heuristics, see Polya, George, How to Solve It, Princeton: Princeton University Press, I944. 12 For the relationship of prediction to time series, cf. Wiener, Norbert, Extrapolation,Interpolation, and Smoothing of Stationary Time Series, Cambridge: MassachusettsInstitute of Technology Press, 1949. In the natural sciences a yes-or-no prediction might answer a question like this: Will this paper burn or not? A qualitative prediction might answer the question: Will it burn with a bright yellow flame? A quantitative prediction might answer the question: In how many seconds will it heat the contents of a test tube to 400 Fahrenheit? In economics or politics, yes-or-no questions might be: Will the Jones Corporation build a new plant? Will the Blank party put on a political drive? Qualitative questions might be: Will the Jones Corporationbuild a large and modern plant? Will the Blank party put on a drive for clean government? Quantitative questions might be: How large a plant will they have built by what date? How many meetings, poster, radio appeals will the Blank party use before next November, and when will the drive reach its climax? It should be rememberedthat the spectrum formed by these different kinds of questions might well be continuous. 13 Cf. Stevens, S. S., "Mathematics,Measurementand Psychophysics"in Stevens, ed., Handbook of ExperimentalPsychology, New York: John Wiley, I95I, pp. 1-48.

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A dimensionof evaluation to eachof thesefour funccorresponds tions of a model. How great is a model's generalityor organizing or heuristicvalue? How important or power?What is its fruitfulness are the verifiable which it And how acstrategic predictions yields? curateare the operations of measurement that can be developedwith its aid? If we collect the answersto these four questionsunder the of a model, we may then evaluatethe headingof the "performance" model still furtherin terms of the three additionalconsiderations of and realism. originality,simplicity of a model,or of any otherintellectual contribuBy the originality tion, we mean its improbability. Any idea, schemeor model may be of previously thoughtof as the productof the recombination existing elements,and perhapsof a subsequent processof abstraction omitting someof the tracesof its combinatorial origin.The greaterthe probabilor obviousness of or a triteness, model,the morefrequentis this parity, in the ensembleof combinatorial ticularrecombination at possibilities the immediately or is the repreceding stage.Originality improbability verseof this value. A structure of symbolsmay be highly originalbut useless.Or a modelmay be originaland performwell but requiresucha largeshare of the available meansandeffortsas to impairthe pursuit of otherwork. Models are thereforeevaluatedfor their simplicity or economy of means.But it turnsout that the conceptof simplicityis not completely betweenPtolemaic simple.FrancisBacondeclaredin the controversy and Copernican in the absence of conclusivedata Astronomythat, from observation, he would choosethe simplerof the two hypotheses; he then dulychosethe Ptolemaic systemon the groundsthatit required fewer readjustments of his everydayexperience.14 Clearly,all notions of simplicityinvolvesome sort of minimization problem,but what is or disto be minimized?Is it the numberof unverifiedassumptions tinctions,as William of Occamseemsto have taught?Or is it a numin praiseof his system? berof calculating suggested steps,as Copernicus of acquiredhabits,as in Lord Or is it the numberof readjustments ChancellorBacon'sreasoning?If we could succeedin reducingthe in a modelby introducnumberof logicalor calculating stepsrequired
14 Frank, Phillip, Modern Science and Its Philosophy, Cambridge: Harvard University Press,
I949, pp. 209-10.

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ing a largenumberof suitablefictions,have we simplifiedthe model, or havewe increased the complexity Would we not of its assumptions? have simplifiedit according to Copernicus, but made it more complex accordingto Occam? and could Perhapsthe conceptof simplicityitself is operational, be considered to resemble in engineeringand the conceptof efficiency in economics. in economics denotesthe attainment of a given Efficiency resultwith the greatesteconomyin the employmentof those means in supplyat eachparticular which are shortest time, place,or situation. Since such supplyconditionsare historical,simplicity,like efficiency, would then be a historical concept.(If thereis merit in this approach, we might wonder about the effect of the availability of cheap calcuon stresson eleaids and calculators the traditional electronic lating gancein mathematics.) If simplicityis measuredby the economy of means in critical supply,then claimsto simplicityon behalf of rival modelsor theories can be evaluatedmore objectively. We might also be able to predict about standards of simplicity,as well as cross-cultural disagreements over standards time. Some of these in of changes accepted simplicity of of simplicitycould also be appliedto the evaluation considerations of organizational researchprogramsas well as to the measurement behavior. for evaluatinga model or a conceptual The last consideration schemeis its realism:that is, the degree of reliancewhich we may to physicalreality.Acsome approximation place on its representing we W. P. to reality"to a Bridgman, may impute "physical cording verified which are leads to or model if it construct predictions by at If we least two different,mutuallyindependentphysicaloperations. the we that statement "X is more somewhat this formally, may say put basedon the assumption that "Predictions real"impliesthe prediction of X will be confirmedby (2 + N) mutuallyindependentphysical where N is any numberlargerthan one."The largerNoperations, turnsout the numberof independent confirmatory operations-actually to be, the greaterthe degreeof reality,or contentof reality,we may infinity,we may be justifiedin treating imputeto X. If N approaches This approach as exhaustive. X as real,thoughby no meansnecessarily or real that object processis in principle every impliesthe assumption It may seem farfetchedto define knowablebut may be inexhaustible.

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the conceptof realityas a prediction abouta seriesof otherpredictions, but it is a definitionthat can be tested,and I believe,appliedto the evaluation of models,or of statements aboutthe inferredinner structure of organizations.
GENUINE VERSUS PSEUDO-MODELS

modelsin the socialsciences Mathematical may lose much of their usefulnessthrough startingfrom too naive assumptions, or through the introduction of pseudo-constants: that is, magnitudesrepresented as constantsin the mathematical equations,but incapableof being checkedby independent and impersonal operations. An exampleof sophisticated mathematical techniquesprevented from becominguseful by regrettably naive assumptions is found in ProfessorNicholas Rashevsky's discussionof changing levels of acin his Matheof nations," tivityin socialgroupsand of the "interaction ProfessorRashevskyassumes matical Theory of Human Relations."5 that membersof the politicallyand economically "activepopulation" differ from the "passivepopulation" and by hereditaryconstitution, of "active" and "passive" that the relativeproportions populationthen to of and natural certain selection, patterns genetics according develop on of numbers and total the density dependinglargely population. mathematical To what extent Professor Rashevsky's techniquescould be applied to more realisticsocial and economic assumptions, and in to of social contrast mere to learning, heredity, particularly processes only the futurecan show. matheof relatively A far morestrikingcombination sophisticated maticswith utternaivetein socialsciencecan be found in the work of the late George KingsleyZipf.'6Accordingto Zipf the size of comshould approximate munitiesin termsof their numberof inhabitants a harmonicseriesfor each country,if its cities were ranked in the of the actualdisThe closeness orderof size of population. decreasing tributionfound to the theoreticalharmonicseries was then naively of socialstability. taken as an indicator Thus, Zipf found that Austria
15 Rashevsky, N., MathematicalTheory of Human Relations: An Approach to a Mathematical Biology of Social Phenomena, Bloomington, Indiana: Principia Press, 1947, pp. 127-I48 and
16 Zipf, George Kingsley, National Unity and Disunity: The Nation as a Biosocial Organism, Bloomington, Indiana: Principia Press, 1941; and Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort, Cambridge: Addison-Wesley, 1949.

esp. pp. I48-49.

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betweenthe two world wars had too large a capitalcity and too few citiesof middlesize, and that the aggregate seriesof citiesin Germany a and Austriaafter Austria'sannexationby the Nazis approximated harmonicseriesmorecloselythan before.From this he concludedthat the Germanannexations of Austriaand the Sudetenland in 1938had increased the stability of Germany and the socialand economicbalance of her "Lebensraum."'7 This "mathematical" conclusioncompletely overlooked the fact thatbefore1938Germany had already beena foodon exportsfor partof her living, and that Ausdeficitarea,dependent triaas well as the Sudetenland been areasof food deficits, had similarly and unemployment. of What the Nazi annexations exportdependence, a of had had been three deficits. The 1938 merger produced "greater of 1939was moredependent on food importsand on export Germany" drivesto pay for them than its componentparts; the pooled threats of unemployment in all three territories were met by an armament and were and food drive, soughtby imperial expansion. supplies exports as a harmonicserieson paper,was What Professor Zipf has described in realitya situation and disharmony, of extremeunbalance which led within a yearto a violentexplosionin the Germaninvasionof Poland and the unfoldingof the SecondWorld War. it is too muchto expectat this stagethatindividuals should Perhaps undergothe highly specializedtrainingof the advancedprofessional mathematician and at the sametime, the at leastequallyintensetrainin the intellectual of socialscientist. The difference the ing experienced techniquesin these two fields should not obscurethe fact that both full-timeintellectualjobs.The main task of the approaches represent on the single-minded mathematician is perhapsto concentrate pursuit He may startout on thesefrom of long trainsof symbolicoperations. as a rule, withoutcaringovermuch, any set of given initialconditions, and no otherswere selected. or assumptions why just these conditions is just the and socialscientist Muchof the trainingof the historian He mustbecomefamiliarwith a verywide rangeof socialand opposite. economicsituations at differentplacesand times.The outcomeof this of his part trainingis at best a sense of relevance,an experiencein judging which factorsin a situationmust be taken into accountand which ones may be neglectedwithoutmuch risk of error.To be sure,
17 National Unity and Disunity, p. 196- 97 and figure i8.

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the social scientistcan only benefit from analytictraining.He does and shouldstudyeconomic,political,and psychological theory,and to an increasingextent mathematics and symboliclogic. Yet all analytic work in the socialsciencesis primarily tied to judgmentsof relevance, of to evaluatingthe realismof assumptions and the appropriateness models.This abilityis not easilyacquiredby mathematicians in their labors. periodsof rest betweenor aftertheirmorearduous professional And the adviceto youngersocialscientists to studymore mathematics shouldbe temperedwith the insistencethat they will have to judge the relevance of their modelsagainsttheir fund of factualknowledge as social scientists;no amountof mathematical knowledgeor advice can take this task from their shoulders. The most hopeful answerto this problemat the presenttime lies perhaps in the developmentof teamwork between men who are but who havehad enoughanalytical socialscientists training primarily can go to to put their problemsinto a form where mathematicians who have had enough of a solid work on them, and mathematicians what the social scientists trainingin the social sciencesto understand treatment need from them, and how to select lines of mathematical which will lead more closelytowardrealityratherthan away from it. modelsin the social Anothersourceof troublewith mathematical constantsor coeffisciencesstems from the tendencyto put arbitrary cientsinto equationsso as to make their resultsfit a known seriesof "Gennumbersor their extrapolations. Thus, Lewis F. Richardson's eralizedForeignPolitics"attemptsto predictthe armaments expenditures of two rival countriesby equationswhich contain numerical of each counand the "submissiveness" for the "grievances" coefficients the other.18 try vis-a-vis It is well known that any finite seriesof numberscan be fittedby more than one equation,and, on the other hand, that any resultcan a sufficiently be attainedin an equationby introducing large number in .the There is all the difference or coefficients. constants of arbitrary and a constantin physics, coefficients world between such arbitrary
18 Richardson, Lewis F., "Generalized Foreign Politics; A Study in Group Psychology," British Journal of Psychology, Monograph Supplement No. 23, London: Cambridge University Press, 1939; cf. also the summaries in Quincy Wright, A Study of War, Vol. II, appendix 42, pp. 1482-83; Kenneth J. Arrow, "Mathematical Models in the Social Sciences," in Daniel Lerner and Harold D. Lasswell, eds., The Policy Sciences: Recent Developments in Scope and Method, Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, I951, p. 137.

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such as Planck's quantum constant h. Genuine constants in physics can be verified by impersonal physical operations of measurement, or by impersonally verifiable inferences from measurement. Such constants are the same for all physicists regardless of their sympathies or political beliefs, and they would be confirmed, in principle, by impersonal recording and measuring devices. The use of such operationally independent and verifiable concepts in models, such as in Bohr's model of the atom, is therefore quite legitimate. As long as social scientists cannot specify an impersonal set of operations for producing a numerical measure of "grievance" or "submissiveness," there will remain a grave suspicion that coefficientsbased on arbitrary estimatesin such matters are somewhat akin to the "variableconstants" familiar from the folklore of undergraduatehumor. To be sure, there may be cases where such mathematical pseudomodels may describe, however inadequately, some genuine intuitive insight of their author. It would be folly to suggest that only that is real which is measurableby present-daymethods; the perception of Gestalt or the structural vision of a previously unrecognized configuration of phenomena all have their places among our sources of knowledge. In all such cases, however, it is the qualitative insights that are relevant, and not the mathematical disguises which they have prematurely donned.
SOME IMPLICATIONS OF MODELS OF COMMUNICATION AND CONTROL FOR RESEARCH ON ORGANIZATIONS

Communication and control are the decisive processesin organizations. Communication is what makes organizations cohere; control is what regulates their behavior. If we can map the pathways by which information is communicated between different parts of an organization and by which it is applied to the behavior of the organization in relation to the outside world, we will have gone far toward understanding that organization. This will be true of an organization composed of cells in an organism, or of machines in an automatic communications network, or of human beings in a social organization. The fundamental processesof communication and control in all these types of organization follow at least some of the same fundamental regularities. Some of these have been best understood thus far in the field of communication engineering as applied to machines. Others

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or to the studentof may be most familiarto the neuro-physiologist, In field whatever are first studied,they may be used to society. they in the others. suggestquestionsfor research The general viewpointof communications theory or cybernetics for concrete but is thus not a substitute research, it suggestsa strategy for it. It suggeststhat certainquestionsare more relevantthan others and that certainclassesof data are worth obtainingand measuring, it suggeststhat effort. Particularly, even at the cost of considerable certainareasof experiencein social life (such as the phenomenaof and consciousness) are worth examining autonomy, novelty,creativity, these have been long neglected that the fact questions anew-despite and by literary are that on the they meaningless, grounds by empiricists social scientistson the groundsthat they are ineffable.Some of the and some of the kinds of data that might lines suggestedfor research be worth collectingwill be indicatedin the rest of this paper. approachsuggestslines Generallyspeaking,the communications of attackin the study of organizations. First, insteadof concentrating on it will concentrate on the ostensiblepurposeof the organization, two questions:how are the formal and informal communications and how are they maintained? of the organization channels connected, Barnard the with would agree This approach viewpointof Chester have laws of behaviordifferentfrom those of their that organizations members :19 individual
"The primaryeffortsof leadersneed to be directedto the maintenance I believethis as whole systemsof activities. and guidanceof organizations sectorof leadership to be the most distinctiveand characteristic behavior, Sincemostof the actswhich but it is the leastobviousand leastunderstood. is indefunctionwhich superficially have a specific constitute organizations the of organization-forexample, accomplishpendentof the maintenance that such tasksof the organization-it may not be observed ment of specific acts at the same time also constituteorganizationand that this, not the is the primaryaspectof such acts from the technicaland instrumental,
19 Organization and Management, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, I949, pp. II4-II5. "Take, for instance, a man who is always changing, or a corporation of by-laws, or to get farther toward the earth, take a whirlpool. This is a realistic thing to one who gets into it, and it seems real enough to anyone who watches it. ... A whirlpool is a situation in a body of water in whi6h there are comparatively stable uniformities of relations between streams of molecules of water, moving with increasing rapidity, spirally towards a center called a vortex, . . . If the molecules stop moving in this way, there is no whirlpool, because all there is to a whirlpool are streams of molecules of water moving in certain ways." (Italics in original.)

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conscious most leadersare not ordinarily viewpointof leadership. Probably of this, thoughintuitivelythey are governedby it."20

Closely connectedwith our study of channel maintenanceand channel layout would be our special interest in whateverfeedback channelsthere are in the organization.What inner disequilibrium drivesthe organization at all to behave,that is, to changeits relations vis-a-visthe outsideworld? What data concerningits own behavior are fed back into the organization, and how are they applied to the its actions? what in relationto the outof At guidance goal situations side world is the inner disequilibrium at a miniof the organization mum? Are thereone or severalsuch minima, and is the information availableto the organization adequateto reach them? The secondpriorityin the study of organizations deals with the problemof memory.What informationis storedin the organization and at what points?How is it selected,brokendown into parts,and recombined? Above all, where and how is it appliedto the guidance is autonomous insofaras it remembers of behavior?An organization recalled and is thus guided by its past,providedthat this information from memoryis confrontedor balancedwith incoming information from the presentstateof the outsideworld and from the organization's own position within it. Where are the points where memoriesare stored,where are they fed back into behavior,and where are they balancedagainstcurrentintake from the present?These are critical as a whole, pointsfor the controlof the behaviorof the organization at these behavior and structure and if we understand organizational decision of the much about the structure points we will understand is guided. the which organization systemby of secondA thirdline of inquirywould dealwith the attachment What usedby the organization. information to the primary arysymbols the about use the does and how manysecondary organization messages does To what extent its channels ?21 movingthrough messages primary and what use is made of the init monitorits own internalprocesses, is the organization formationthus obtained?In short,how conscious that of its of its own knowledge and behaviorand parts? In other words,what internaldataaboutthe knowledgestoredin the organiza21 For definitions of primary and secondarymessages and the general concept of consciousness, see MTM, pp. 205-208.

20 Barnard,op. cit., p. 89.

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tion and the behaviorof its elementsis abstracted to and transmitted and committees, committees, executives, steering governing policy boardsof variouskinds,and what use is made of it? What difference, that is to say, does it make in the probability deof their subsequent cisions?What are the costs of this consciousness or internalmonitorlabor,and time of delay? ing-in resources, How realisticis this consciousness? How differentis the ensemble of secondary as it comesto the policyboards or the executives, symbols, from the ensembleof primarymessagesthat make up the life of the To what extentdo whole categories of internalinformaorganization? remain tion unmonitored or untransmitted, and thus ineffective at the for thatmatter, is the feedback of ostensible policylevel?How effective, actual behavior?In policy decisionsin changing the organizations' to extent the rewhat does of short, steeringsystem the organization main blind to its surroundings or to the consequences of its own behavior?And, on the otherhand,how often are leadersof an organization as vividlyawareof its behavior as Cassandra was of the impending to changeit? fall of Troy,but are equallypowerless To what extentare failuresin the steeringof an organization due link not to the presence to the absence of somecrucialcommunication of someevil elements?Too often the theoryof the improvement of organizationsthrough "shakeups" or "purges" may turn out to be a and lineal descendant of the medievaltheoriesof demonicpossession emof exorcism-and hardlymore efficientthan its ancestors. Firing ployeesmay seem less expensivethan a thoroughsurveyof the workbut traffic jams are rarelyimprovedby firing ings of an organization, or switchboards drivers, telephone by firing operators. here that none of the questions listed it is worthrepeating Perhaps are rhetorical.All of them should be in the precedingparagraphs of surveying, of answered by procedures mapping,and capable being often measuringand counting. and priorities of preferences In mappingthe structure which govwithin an organization of information ern the transmission (and thus the outside we toward should behavior obtain its world), indirectly or and its order scale of thus a a rank operatingpreferences values, map of its internalvalue system.This internalvalue systemmay be different fromthe collectionof valueimagesas theymay appear among the collectionof secondary Consymbolson the level of consciousness.

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sciousness in regard to values,as to other things, may be false conThe organization-that is, its leaders,or even all of its sciousness. membersand all of its permanent records-may "think"that the orone in its actualoperations while it might preganization prefers thing fer anothermost of the time. Similarly,of course,this internal value systemmay be different from the presumable value systemwhich an outsideobservermight deducefrom its grossexternalbehaviorover a limited periodof time, Such externalbehaviorhas been the favoritesubjectof study for the schoolof psychology, behavioristic but it does not predictthe internal orthe internal the internal of information, preferences storage governing or communicaof the organization's rearrangements physicalresources of its eventual tion channels(and thus the changesin the probabilities Second World trains valuafuturebehavior). the War, During carrying ble freightwere protected againstland minesby a precedingstringof mines countered mines land cars. of by constructing Designers empty which did not explode under the first five or six impacts,but did respondto each impactby a changein an internalrelay that insured on such land their explosionunder the seventh.Steppingrepeatedly behavioral mines would have surprised psychologists-and so would of how to disarmtimebombs. the problem are studiesof the relaWhat is suggestedby such considerations and inner structuralchange, as behavior outward between tionship betweengoal imagesandactualgoal situations, well as the relationships and betweenvalue imagesand operatingvalue systems.In particular, for the extent of such operatingvalue systemsshould be investigated and goal seeking that preinconsistency, disequilibrium, circularity, to the personality of indivails in them. This might have applications of large socialgroupsand particular vidualsas well as to the behavior Too often, it has been social, economic, or political organizations. almost attention concentrate to entirelyon the consistent customary has described the cultureof an Ruth Benedict aspectsof such systems. Indiantribeas a single vessel,having one consistentshape,and then on harmony Similaremphasis brokenby contactwith the white men.22 of westernmedievalculture,23 in descriptions and unity is customary
Benedict, Ruth, Patterns of Culture, New York: Penguin Books, 1947, pp. 19-21. E.g. Randall, John Herman, Jr., The Making of the Modern Mind, revised edition, Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1940, pp. I7-106.
23

22

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in corporation and in electionplatforms to stockholders, of the reports majorpoliticalparties.All these embodyat best only limited aspects of reality. In studying more realisticallythe present structureand societies,or cultures,we probablefuture behaviorof organizations, and inconsistmight ratherask: What are their strategicunbalances encies?What are the pointswhere, and what are the ratesat which, or strainsare accumulated in such a manneras memories,resources, to leadto changesin probable futurebehavior?
LEARNING AND ORGANIZATIONS

When we deal with changes in inner structurewhich imply changesin behavior,we are not far from studyingthe processesof learning.Learningis here used to signify those inner changesin an that occurin responseto some repeatedoutsidestimulus organization and that changethe system's subsequent responseto it. However,the connection with the repeated outsidestimulusneed not be close.Items of information in memoryand then be and abstracted dissociated may recombined to new patterns; from simplerpatternsmay be abstracted the combinatorial these, thus obliterating origin, and completingthe of novelty.These new internallycreatedpatternsmay be production fed back into the determination of new behaviorand thus constitute
initiative.

All these processescan be studied in structuralor quantitative terms.The probability of noveltyand the capacity for learningdepend to some extenton the size of the ensembleof possiblerecombinations of separateitems of informationand materialinternalresources. In in organizations this sense,learningcapacity on the depends range of of available recombinations knowledge, manpower, and internally facilities.These rangesshouldincreasewith the effectiveness of dissociation,that is, the extent to which knowledgeor facilitiescould be into ever smallerindependent subdivided pieces. would be a dangerous half-truth. For Unqualified,this statement and the vasterwe make the smallerwe make the itemsof information the longer it would the ensembleof their possiblenew combinations, and the less would be the probability take to scan theseensembles, of from them relevantor usablecombinations within a limited extracting offera range time.A million monkeystypingon a million typewriters thatincludesthe collected worksof William recombinations of possible

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but the probabilityof obtainingthem by this method Shakespeare, withina limitedtime is infinitesimal. Learningthroughthe recombination of largenumbersof unrelated small items is therefore likely to be slow and may have to be guidedheavilyby additionalselectivecriteria from outsidethe ensembleof recombinable items. This would correspondto the descriptionof "infant learning" of the learngiven by D. O. Hebb,and to the sameauthor's description of orientation who visual vision for the first ing by persons acquired time in adultlife as the resultof a cornealoperation.24 Hebb contrasts thiswith whathe calls"adultlearning." of This, in his opinion,consists the recombination of a smallernumberof largersubassemblies of memoriesor habits.The principlewould applymutatismutandisto recomof material binations facilities.Infantlearning,in this of subassemblies a from house view, resembles bricks;adultlearningresembles building from it assembling prefabricated panels.Infant learningthus is slower but richerin possibilities; adultlearningis morerapidwithin the limits of combinations of the subassemblies which are given.25 In the search for an increase in the capacity to learn, then, the problemsare to find some optimum range between infant type and adulttype learning;or to alternate betweeninfanttype and adult at various within the same organization;or, stages type learning criteria of to establish interest for the selectionof finally, strategic from the large ensembleof "infant"type promisingconfigurations of developing the selected more learningfor the purpose configurations more "adult" methods. nearly by type learning intensively From a structural point of view, the learningcapacityof an orinner ganizationis thus indicatedby the amountof its uncommitted the extent of their dissociation into discrete resources, items, by possible and by the extent and probablerelevanceof its fixed subassemblies Somewherebetween the extreme availablefor new recombinations. in items infant subdivision of learningand the relativerigidity of a there exists probablya small ensembleof large fixed subassemblies, a of region optimum solutions,combining high degree of richness and originality-that is, improbability-of new patternswith a high of their degreeof speedin their selection,and with a high probability
24 Hebb, D. 0., The Organization of Behavior, New York: John Wiley, 1949, pp. 109-I34,
esp. pp. 111-120. 25 Ibid.

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relevanceto the challengesofferedto the organization by its environment. Structural data about learningcapacitymay be checked against dataof learningperformance. observed Here,research might deal with the to of of the curve the behaviorof concept learning adaptations or industries For a countries. organizations, quantitative approachto in economic the problems of learningand innovation history,I should research like to repeatan outlineof concrete which I listed possibilities in anotherpaper:26
"We might measure the imitative innovation rate, that is the rate at which selected, standardized, technical innovations were accepted in given countries. We could select those cases for which sufficientrecords are available. Numerous examples suggest themselves: the linotype machine, the shoe machines of the United Shoe Machinery Corporation,the cash register, typewriter, ball-bearing, telephone, the Westinghouse railroad air-brake, and many like instances. We might then try, let us say in the case of the linotype machine, to find out when and where these machines were first introduced on a significant scale, how long a time elapsed between the first introduction and the stage when more than one-third the total circulation of a country was printed with their aid, and how much longer until the one-half and two-thirds marks were reached. Figures on the linotype machines might be obtainable from the corporationhandling the license rights; data on newspaper circulation have been collected for some time now by the Editors' and Publishers' Year Book. A sample graph of the speed with which the printing of newspapers was modernized, in this respect, could be correlated with such 'economic' factors as the total numbers of newspapers among which the entire circulation was divided; the capital investment in the newspaper industry; the volume of paid advertising; the profits of the business; and numerous other variables. After some of these correlations have been made, it might be possible to see if there still remained any significant differences in the speed with which typesetting was being modernized in the United States, for example, as compared with, perhaps, France. This comparison could tell us for the limited subject of typesetting, not only whether French entrepreneurswere as quick (or slower) than their American counterparts in modernizing
26 Deutsch, Karl W., "Innovation, Entrepreneurship,and the Learning Process," in Cole, A. H., ed., Change and the Entrepreneur: Postulates and Patterns for EntrepreneurialHistory, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1949, pp. 24-29; the citations are from pp. 25-27, slightly modified.

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their plants, but also, if they had been slower, by just how much they had lagged behind. Such figures as those for the linotype machine alone would mean little, but if the investigation is repeated for, let us say, the cash register (utilizing the recordsof the National Cash Register Company)-comparing the number of cash registers installed in a given country with the volume of retail sales, or with the number and turnover of retail stores above a certain minimum sales volume per store-the aggregate data would begin to take on significance. (The available figures in each case would, of course, vary with the obtainable statistics for each country.) The outcome of a comparison of these several innovation rates in different countries with those found to have prevailed in the United States might show that the French retail grocers or department store executives had a different rate of adoption of these techniques, that perhaps they were more quick to adopt one innovation than another; and, in the end, we might emerge with a quantitative measure of the differential rates of the acceptance of innovation. This sort of data would be essential for any significant statements about the performance of French entrepreneurshipas compared to the American variety, or about the innovating performance of small owner-managed firms as compared to large corporate enterprises; or, to look at the matter from another side, about the innovating performances of all types of business in the classical decades of free trade, say, I846-I873, as compared with the classical period of capital concentration and protection, say, I890I929.

Complementary to these investigations of imitative innovation would be an investigation of initiative innovation, that is, the frequency with which significant innovations originate and are first significantly applied in a particular country, or in special types of economic institutions. A study of imitative innovation might tell us how quickly American improvements in the technology of coal-mining were introduced in Britain during the era of private enterprise in the Igth century as compared with the rate of such introductions in the 20th century before I945, and with the rate of such innovations since that time under public management. A study of initiative innovation could tell us, at the same time, what significant innovations in coal-mining, if any, originated in Britain during each of these periods. Findings for both types of innovations could then be compared to similar data for coal-mining in France and Germany, with due allowances, of course, for the different geological and geographical conditions in each case.

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of the It would be againstthis international backgroundof comparison and officialsin other countriesthat the of both businessmen performance in variousperiodsof economichiscontribution of Americanbusinessmen or the chancesbetterestimated for stimutorycouldbe properly appraised, lating furtherinnovationsin a given countryby means of economicaid from the United States." Records of learning performance at successive times may themselves be made the basis for a second-order measurement of what Gregory Bateson has called the "deuterolearning" of an organization.27 Deutero learning is second-order learning. Its measurement would measure the speed at which an organization learns to learn; that is, the rate of improvement in its performance when confronted with a succession of different learning tasks. From a structural investigation of the learning facilities and the learning capacity of an organization, and from measurements of its learning performancesas well as of its second-orderlearning, we may derive a test for evaluating major over-all learning and behavior patterns of the organization. Has the learning of the organization been creative; that is to say, has it increased its ranges of possible intake of information from the outside world and its ranges of possible inner recombinations? Or has the learning of the organization been merely viable; that is, has it neither added nor detracted from the subsequent capacitiesof the organization for learning and self steering? Or finally, has the learning performance of the organization been pathological; that is, has the organization learned something that has reduced its subsequent capacity to learn or its subsequent capacity to control its own behavior? Such self-destructivelearning resembles what moralists call sin, and perhaps what Socrates had in mind when he taught that no man would "err willingly." Any shift from infant type to adult type learning has (on this showing, at least) a pathological aspect. As large subassembliesof information or resourcesare frozen and as major pathways of habit and routine become fixed, the speed and probabilityof the responsesof the organization will increase in relation to a limited range of currently probable or frequent stimuli. But this observable improvement in ob27 Bateson, Gregory, "Social Planning and the Concept of Deutero-Learning,"in Newcomb, T. E., and E. L. Hartley, eds., Readings in Social Psychology, New York: Henry Holt & Co., 1947, PP. 121-I28.

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viouscompetence in routinematters will havebeenboughtat the price of reducingthe range of available new recombinations within the orthat at the of its inner resources of origiis, ganization; price reducing and nality creativity. The same process may, of course, have involved the hardenfor intake,as ing of routinesin the selectionof kinds of information well as in the allocation of priorities in its treatment, and in the attachment of secondary in the feedbackchannels symbolsto it for treatment that carry consciousness. All this may result in a narrowingin the range of informationthat is permittedto enter the organization,or thatis likelyto becomeeffective in it. Thus,the organization may come to run in blinkersof its own making,and cumulativelossesof sensitivitymay lead to partialblindnessbehind a facadeof seeminglyever morematureperformance. There is evidencethat this pathologicalaspectof adult learning was known intuitively to the earlyChristians. Their injunction to men to "become like little children" musthave shockeddisciples of Platonic which extolledperfectionand maturity,but it should be philosophy, as recognized a legitimateand significantinsight by moderntheorists of learningand organization. Considerations of this kind have a directbearingon the valuation of the evolutionand learningperformance of countriesand societies. Severaltimes in historywe find a conspicuous declineand partialdisin of integration the establishedroutines and fixed subassemblies formalized of custom and civilization, learningand established patterns coupledat the sametime with a broaddiffusionof some fundamental itemsof knowledgeand technology andwith the emergence of a larger of knowledgeor of economic numberof smallerunitsor subassemblies or politicalactivity,offeringa wider range of possiblenew combinations. The so-called"darkages"in westernEuropebetweenA.D. 500 The civilization and iooo arean exampleof this process. of the American colonies,and later the United States,between i750 and I850 is perhapsanother.In both these caseswe find numerouscommentson the lossof manyfixedtraditions, or patterns of civilization, institutions, summedup in eloquentcomplaintsabouta supposednew barbarism or culturalchaos.On closerinspection, these periodsturn out to have beenperiodsof greatfundamental of the growthand of the enrichment ensembleof learning resources and possibilities, which then in turn

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lead to the emergence of novel and temporarily morerelevant patterns. In the subsequent these new patterns turn into temporarily phase, fixed subassemblies. The subsequent age thus may impressobservers with its apparentconservatism and stability,while at the same time of change.These conembodyingcontinuedand important processes tinued changes,however,are then largely changeswithin the limits of adult-type or learning,exploitinga limitedrangeof recombinations routines. Such still be largely ready-made adult-typelearning may as these conceptswere definedabove,but it has originaland creative, strictlimits and it may containseriousinternalcontradictions and inThese contradictions and compatibilities. incompatibilities may end in deadlockor in a partialreturnto a seeminglybarbarous or infanttype learningstage. The demobilization of fixed subassemblies, pathways,or routines thus itself be creative or It is creative when it is acmay pathological. and thus by an increase in companied by a diffusionof basicresources, the possiblerangesof new connections, new intakes,and new recombinations.In organizations or societiesthe breakingof the cake of customis creativeif individualsare not merely set free from old restraints morecapable but if they are at the sametime rendered of comwith each other and with the world in municatingand cooperating which they live. In the absenceof these conditions,there may be "barbarism" would then mean not merelythe loss genuineregression; of prizedtraditions or routines, but rather the mutualbabbling to which the Greekword firstreferred.
LEARNING AND DECISION SYSTEMS

The problemof learningand learningcapacityseems clearlyrelatedto the problemof decisionsystemsand the problemof will; that is, the freezingof certainpatternsof decisionaftera point in time by ones.28 messagesover post-decision allocatingpriorityto pre-decision Problemsof will, or of the hardeningof decisionsin organizations, of mapping the could be measuredin part by the twin approaches and channels communication relevant the structure of memoryfacilibehaviorof the system. The ties, and by chartingthe input-output could then be checked against each resultsof these two approaches
28 For an extended discussion of this point, see MTM, pp. 208-212.

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viduals, or organizations in the outside world-that is to say powerare thus related to the ability not to learn, and they have significant possibilities for the potential loss of self-steering capacity and the possible self-destructionof the organization. These possibilities could again be in part charted and measured.9 Just as it should be possible to chart or measure the probability of certain pathological developments in the self-steering or learning of organizations, so should we be able to attach operational meaning to such intuitively understood concepts as integrity and dignity-concepts which we begin to understand painfully when what they describe is being violated and can no longer be taken for granted. As a first superficial approximation,we might call the integrity of an organization or person their continued possession of undisrupted inner communication facilities and learning equipment, and we might call the dignity of a person or organization their use of their autonomous learning or steering equipment at nondisruptive speeds. This approach would permit yes-or-nojudgments as to whether the integrity or dignity of a person or organization had been impaired to a significant extent or not. We could go further. We could undertake structural and quantitative studies of the steering processwhich itself is at the heart of autonomy or self-determination.In addition to mapping its relevant channels and measuring its over-all performance, we could identify particularly relevant magnitudes such as the lag and the gain of the steering system in response to variationsin input rates of information and in the loads on its communication channels, and in the performanceof its effectors.30 From this approach,the minimum requirementsfor the actual size and performance characteristicsof balancing or controlling facilities in an organization could be developed. To take an example, instead of merely stating in the discussionof the "cobwebtheorem"in market fluctuations that advance buying by speculators would "tend to" counterbalance the tendency to increase the fluctuations,it should be possible to state how large a proportion of the total demand present in the market
29 For a discussion of some of them, see Karl W. Deutsch, "Communication in Self-Governing Organizations"in Freedom and Authority Twelfth Symposium of the Conferenceon Science, Philosophy and Religion, L. Bryson et al., Eds., New York: Harper Brothers, publication scheduled I952-53. 30 For a discussion of the concepts of feedback versus equilibrium analysis and the concepts of lag and gain, see MTM, pp. 197-I99.

other.Will and the abilityto make it prevailagainstprocesses, indi-

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would have to be in the hands of such speculators (this might correto the rate of a in feedback and how spond gain system), earlyandhow reliablethe advanceinformation of thesespeculators would have to be to the lead in the seriesof datausedin certain (this would correspond instancesof controlengineering).Measurements of these magnitudes are as much subjectto quantitativetreatmentin principle,and as accessible to potentialmeasurement, as any othersused in currenteconomic theory.What is true of the proportion devotedto of resources in markets should in counter-speculation similarlyapply principleto the proportions betweencommittedtroopsand operational in reserves certainsituations of warfare,and perhapsto proportions of line work and staffwork in organizations.31
THE CONCEPT OF GROWTH

I shouldlike to closethis paperwith the suggestion relatingto the Suchgrowth couldbe measmeasurement of growthin organizations. ured in four dimensions. in openness-that is an inFirst,an increase creasein the rangeof the organization's channelsof intake from the or outside world; second, an increasein its inner complementarity with which informationis transcoherence-that is, in the efficiency to another; mittedand responded to from one partof the organization in the abilityto change in power-that is, an increase third,an increase the environment in accordance of the organization with its projected inner patterns,policies, and needs; fourth, an increasein learning to learnrapidlyand capacity-that is, in the abilityof the organization to own and and its change goals ratherthan yet originally creatively, to remain the prisonerof some temporarygoal or ideal and to fall instituvictimto what A. J. Toynbeecalledthe "worship of ephemeral
tions."32

It is hoped that it will to growth is philosophical. This approach stem from the philosophyof scienceratherthan of intuition,and that in the courseof time everydimensionof the growthand performance of organizationswhich was outlined above will prove capableof mappingand of measurement.
31 Cf. also the discussion of the ratio of total association cortex to total sensory cortexcalled the A/S ratio-in Hcbb, op. cit., pp. 124-125. 32 Toynbee, A. J., A Study of History, London: Oxford University Press, I939, vol. 4, pp. 303-422; see also the whole section "The Nemesis of Creativity,"pp. 245-584.