PPA Volumetrics - 2 PDF

2005 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
2 Key Questions
2 Key Questions
Are any commercial O & G
fields present
fields present
fields present
?
?
?
What is the probability?

How much O & G is
How much O & G is
present
present
?
?
Average expected amount
Range of reserves expected
P. 2-27
Prospect Hydrocarbon Volume
Predicted volume is product
of:
of:
closure area
net thickness of the reservoir
porosity
hydrocarbon fill of trap volume
recovery factor
P. 2-56
Volumetric determination
Volumetric determination
1. N
R
= GBV *N/G * (1 - Sw)
Where:
N
R =
hydrocarbons in place at reservoir conditions
GBV=Gross Bulk Volume of reservoir
N/G = Net to Gross ratio
= Porosity, fraction
Sw = Water saturation, fraction
2.
2.
Conversion to surface volume
Conversion to surface volume
-
-
oil
oil
Shrinkage factor (1/FVF formation volume
factor)
3.
3.
Times recovery factor
Times recovery factor
Typical exploration workflows
1.
1.
Map the critical prospect factors
(trap type and size, reservoir presence, porosity,
source capability, drive mechanism,
recoverability, etc)
2.
2.
Select ranges for factors that describe
prospect conditions
prospect conditions
3.
3.
Combine factors to derive an
assessment curve
assessment curve
Describes sizes that can occur given local
conditions
4.
4.
Perform a risk assessment on the
project
project
Mean = 50.00
25.00 37.50 50.00 62.50 75.00
Effecti ve thi ckness
TRAP, SEAL, TIMING 0.72
Closure volume 0.8
Seal - top.lateral,no serious leakage by faults or fractures 0.9
Timing - Relative to migration 1
RESERVOIR, POROSITY, PERMEABILITY 0.8
Adequate reservoir thickness 0.8
Porosity 1
Permeability, Continuity 1
SOURCE, MATURATION, MIGRATION 0.9
Organic quantity/quality 1
Maturation (adequate time, temperature, pressure) 1
Migration (primary, secondary, source to trap) 0.9
PRESERVATION, HC QUALITY, RECOVERY 1
Preservation (no bad flushing, biodegradation) 1
HC Quality and concentration 1
Recovery (drive, pressure, depth) 1
How Much O & G?
How Much O & G?
Several methods used
Several methods used
Volumetrics & HC charge
Volumetrics & HC charge
recommended for
recommended for
prospects
prospects
Field number and size
recommended for
recommended for
plays
plays
P. 2-27
Provide selection
Provide selection
priorities for choices
priorities for choices
among prospects within
among prospects within
organization. Review
organization. Review
current and past
current and past
evaluations to develop
evaluations to develop
internal consistency in
internal consistency in
application.
application.
Combine reservoir
Combine reservoir
parameters to produce
parameters to produce
statistically correct
statistically correct
assessment curve.
assessment curve.
Determine ranges of
Determine ranges of
values for reservoir
values for reservoir
parameters, from multiple
parameters, from multiple
sources and ranges of
sources and ranges of
uncertainty of each to
uncertainty of each to
Describe techniques of
Describe techniques of
assessing trap volumes
assessing trap volumes
and calculating statistical
and calculating statistical
ranges of expected
ranges of expected
volumes
volumes
2. Prospect Volume
2. Prospect Volume
Calculation
Calculation
P. 2-27
of:
of:
closure area
porosity
recovery factor
P. 2-56
Prospect Volume Elements
Trap volume
Trap volume
Reservoir thickness
Areal extent
Reservoir properties
Net/gross ratio
Average porosity
Average HC saturation
Percent of trap filled (HC fill)
Shrinkage or volume factor
Recovery factor
Oil or gas fraction of HC volume
P. 2-28
Prospect Assessment
Prospect Assessment
Success
Success
-
-
meeting or exceeding
minimum economic size
Steps in assessment process
1.
1.
1.
Define minimum economic size
2. Select ranges for individual factors
3.
3.
3.
Combine factors to derive
assessment curve
assessment curve
assessment curve
4.
4.
4.
Estimate adequacy of achieving
P. 2-28
Assessment Methods
Assessment Methods
Geologic Analogy
Geologic Analogy
Delphi
Delphi
Areal & volumetric yield
Areal & volumetric yield
*
*
*
*
Geochemical yields (Material
Geochemical yields (Material
Balance)
Balance)
Summations
Summations
*
*
Extrapolations
Extrapolations
P. 2-28
* Used
in this
course
Geologic Analogy
Geologic Analogy
If A looks like B, then they must
If A looks like B, then they must
have similar values
have similar values
Advantages
Advantages
Ties to experience
Easier to sell prospect
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
Miss key factor
May use only one factor
Useful for individual factors
Useful for individual factors
P. 2-29
RESERVOIR INFORMATION
SOURCE
Regional
environment Continuity Geometry
Rock
properties
Fluid
properties
Depletion
technology
Well
Pattern Economics
Geologic model xx x xx x
Geophysics xx xx xx x x
Outcrop studies xx xx xx xx
Well logging x x xxx xx
Core samples xxx xx
Drilling history x xx xx
Fluid sample xx x xxx xx x
Well test xxx x xx xx xx x
Production history xxx x x xxx xxx xx xxx
Analogy x x x x x x xx xx
Legend:
x = i ndi cator
xx = qual i tati ve
Sources of data
Sources of data
xxx = quantitative
P. 2-29
Delphi
Delphi
Average of several experts
Average of several experts
Advantages
Advantages
Fuller range of possibilities
Easy to use, but time consuming
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
No scaling factors
Paradigm blindness
Useful judgment check
Useful judgment check
P. 2-30
Areal/Volumetric Yields
Areal/Volumetric Yields
Yield per unit area/volume
Yield per unit area/volume
Advantages
Advantages
Quick
Easy
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
No third dimension
Tough to estimate
Useful in combination with other
Useful in combination with other
methods
methods
P. 2-30
Field Number and Size
Field Number and Size
Like analogy with more data
Like analogy with more data
Advantages
Advantages
Deals with prospects & fields
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
Large amount of data needed
Subtle traps difficult
Useful in play assessment
Useful in play assessment
P. 2-30
Material Balance
Material Balance
Special form of volumetric
Special form of volumetric
method
method
Advantages
Advantages
Covers numerous genetic factors
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
Time reconstruction difficult
Ignorance of geochemical processes
Useful as supplementary method
P. 2-31
Summation of Prospects and Plays
Summation of Prospects and Plays
Totals individual assessments
Totals individual assessments
Advantages
Advantages
Combines ranges of possibilities
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
Requires much data
Cant be used for individual prospect
Useful in play & basin assessment
Useful in play & basin assessment
P. 2-31
Extrapolation of Discovery Rates
Extrapolation of Discovery Rates
Useful for resource assessment
Useful for resource assessment
Advantages
Advantages
Ties to reality
Disadvantages
Disadvantages
Cant be used for prospects or play
Economic/ technical factors may
change
P. 2-31
Prospect Assessment
Prospect Assessment
Success
Success
-
-
1. Define minimum economic size
3. Combine factors to derive
assessment curve
4. Estimate adequacy of achieving
P. 2-21
Measures of Uncertainty
Measures of Uncertainty
Always remember that there is a single
Always remember that there is a single
truth to the factor that we are modeling
truth to the factor that we are modeling
Uncertainties frequently expressed in
Uncertainties frequently expressed in
various manners:
various manners:
Single value
Min, ML, Max
Statistical description
Geostatistical approaches
Geostatistical approaches
Single models of complex data sets
Multiple simulations (probabilistic approach)
P. 2-32
Definitions
Definitions
Deterministic solution
Deterministic solution
Single (best?) solution to problem/conditions
Probabilistic solution
Probabilistic solution
Multiple simulations or probabilities that fit conditions
Continuous probability distribution
Continuous probability distribution
A probability distribution that describes uninterrupted
values over a range.
Discrete probability distribution
Discrete probability distribution
A probability distribution that describes distinct values,
usually integers, with no intermediate values.
P. 2-32
Statistical Distributions
Statistical Distributions
Exceedance/Cumulative
Exceedance/Cumulative
*
*
Normal (gaussian or bell
Normal (gaussian or bell
-
-
shaped)
shaped)
Lognormal
Lognormal
Histogram
Histogram
Equal
Equal
Rectangular
Rectangular
Triangular*
Triangular*
Log
Log
-
-
triangular*
triangular*
P. 2-32
Symmetrical Distributions
Symmetrical Distributions
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
HISTOGRAM
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1 3 5 7 9 11
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3
P. 2-33
7
12
7
12
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Describes many natural phenomena
Describes many natural phenomena (IQ's, people's (IQ's, people's
heights, the inflation rate, or errors in measurements). heights, the inflation rate, or errors in measurements).
Continuous probability distribution.
Parameters are:
Parameters are:
Mean
Standard deviation.
Some value is the most likely (the mean of the Some value is the most likely (the mean of the
distribution). distribution).
The unknown variable could as likely be above or below The unknown variable could as likely be above or below
the mean (symmetrical about the mean). the mean (symmetrical about the mean).
The unknown variable is more likely to be close to the The unknown variable is more likely to be close to the
mean than far away mean than far away
Approximately 68% are within 1 standard deviation of the mean
P. 2-34
Normal Distributions
Normal Distributions
1 Standard
deviation
P. 2-34
Cumulative Curve
Cumulative Curve
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
9 18 27 36 45 54 63 72 81 90
Economic Threshold
- 40'
Cumulative frequency Cumulative frequency
distribution distribution
A chart that shows the A chart that shows the
number or proportion (or number or proportion (or
percentage) of values percentage) of values
less than less than or equal to a or equal to a
given amount. given amount.
P. 2-35
Exceedance Curve
Exceedance Curve
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
9 18 27 36 45 54 63 72 81 90
Economic Threshold
- 40'
Exceedance Exceedance
distribution distribution
A chart that shows the A chart that shows the
number or proportion (or number or proportion (or
percentage) of values percentage) of values
greater than greater than or equal to or equal to
a given amount. a given amount.
P. 2-35
Sand Distribution
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
9
1
8
2
7
3
6
4
5
5
4
6
3
7
2
8
1
9
0
Economic Threshold - 40'
Histogram and
Frequency
Curve Displays
P. 2-36
Lognormal Distribution
Lognormal Distribution
Widely used in situations where values are Widely used in situations where values are positively skewed positively skewed (where (where
most of the values occur near the minimum value) most of the values occur near the minimum value)
Financial analysis for security valuation
Real estate for property valuation
Distribution of reserves in a play
Continuous probability distribution. Continuous probability distribution.
Financial analysts have observed that the stock prices are usual Financial analysts have observed that the stock prices are usual ly ly
positively skewed. positively skewed.
Stock prices exhibit this trend because the stock price cannot fall below the
lower limit of zero but may increase to any price without limit.
The parameters for the lognormal distribution The parameters for the lognormal distribution
Mean
Standard deviation
Three conditions underlying a lognormal distribution are: Three conditions underlying a lognormal distribution are:
1. The unknown variable can increase without bound, but is confined to a finite value
at the lower limit.
2. The unknown variable exhibits a positively skewed distribution.
3. The natural logarithm of the unknown variable will yield a normal curve.
P. 2-36
Triangular Distribution
Triangular Distribution
Shows number of successes when you know
Shows number of successes when you know
the
the
minimum, maximum
minimum, maximum
, and
, and
most likely
most likely
values.
values.
The parameters for the triangular distribution
The parameters for the triangular distribution
are
are
minimum, maximum, and likeliest
minimum, maximum, and likeliest
For example, you could describe the number of cars sold per week when
past sales show the minimum, maximum, and most likely number of cars
sold
Three conditions:
Three conditions:
1. The minimum number is fixed.
2. The maximum number is fixed.
3. The most likely number falls between the minimum and maximum
values, forming a triangular shaped distribution, which shows that
values near the minimum and maximum are less likely to occur than
those near the most likely value.
P. 2-37
NORMAL TRIANGLE
(e.g., 2 - 4 - 6)

MOST LIKELY = (MIN+MAX) / 2 = (2 + 6) / 2 = 4

MINIMUM = 2 ML - MAX = 2 x 4 - 6 = 2

MAXIMUM = 2 ML - MIN = 2 x 4 - 2 = 6

MEAN = (MIN + ML + MAX) / 3
= ML (IF SYMMETRICAL)
P. 2-37

LOG TRIANGLE
(e.g., 2 - 4 - 8)

MOST LIKELY = MIN x MAX = 16 = 4
MINIMUM = ML
2
/ MAX = 16 / 8 = 2
MAXIMUM = ML
2
/ MIN = 16 / 2 = 8

SYMMETRICAL LOG TRIANGLE
MEAN = ML + 0.06 (MAX - ML) *
*DERIVED BY W. R. JAMES
P. 2-38
Uniform (Rectangular) Distribution
Uniform (Rectangular) Distribution
All values between the minimum and
All values between the minimum and
maximum are equally likely to occur
maximum are equally likely to occur
The parameters for the uniform
The parameters for the uniform
distribution are
distribution are
minimum
minimum
and
and
maximum
maximum
.
.
Three conditions:
Three conditions:
1. The minimum value is fixed.
2. The maximum value is fixed.
3. All values between the minimum and maximum
are equally likely to occur.
P. 2-38
Definitions
Definitions
-
-
2
2
Mean Mean
The arithmetic average of a set of numbers
Mode Mode
That value which, if it exists, occurs most often in a data set.
Standard deviation Standard deviation
The square root of the variance of the numbers in a sample set of
size n. The standard deviation is the average amount a set of
numbers deviate from the mean
Variance Variance
Average of the squared differences between a number of
observations in a sample set of size n and their mean
Skewness Skewness
Measure of the degree of deviation of a curve from the norm. The
greater the degree of skewness, the more points of the curve lie to
either side of the peak of the curve. A normal distribution curve,
having no skewness, is symmetrical in shape
P. 2-39
1.
1.
(trap type and size, reservoir presence, porosity,
source capability, drive mechanism,
recoverability, etc)
2.
2.
prospect conditions
prospect conditions
3.
3.
assessment curve
assessment curve
Describes sizes that can occur given local
conditions
4.
4.
project
project
Mean = 50.00
25.00 37.50 50.00 62.50 75.00
TRAP, SEAL, TIMING 0.72
Closure volume 0.8
Seal - top.lateral,no serious leakage by faults or fractures 0.9
Timing - Relative to migration 1
RESERVOIR, POROSITY, PERMEABILITY 0.8
Adequate reservoir thickness 0.8
Porosity 1
Permeability, Continuity 1
SOURCE, MATURATION, MIGRATION 0.9
Organic quantity/quality 1
Maturation (adequate time, temperature, pressure) 1
Migration (primary, secondary, source to trap) 0.9
PRESERVATION, HC QUALITY, RECOVERY 1
Preservation (no bad flushing, biodegradation) 1
HC Quality and concentration 1
Recovery (drive, pressure, depth) 1
2. Select Ranges for Individual Factors
2. Select Ranges for Individual Factors
Minimum
Minimum
values are those that
values are those that
are critical to achieve minimum
are critical to achieve minimum
economic accumulation
economic accumulation
Ranges reflect assessment of
Ranges reflect assessment of
potential sizes for each factor
potential sizes for each factor
Best estimate for each factor is
Best estimate for each factor is
most likely
most likely
Factors combined to achieve
Factors combined to achieve
mean
mean
for each factor
for each factor
P. 2-39
Min, ML, Max Definitions
Min, ML, Max Definitions
Min (Minimum)
Min (Minimum)
Largest risk free(certain) value or
Value needed to reach economic minimum
accumulation
Risk will need to be accounted for
ML (Most Likely)
ML (Most Likely)
What you really think the value is - your
best interpretation
Probably not risk free
Max (Maximum)
Max (Maximum)
Largest value reasonably expected
P. 2-39
Case Against ML
Case Against ML Rose, 2001 Rose, 2001
Triangular distributions are poor proxies for the
Triangular distributions are poor proxies for the
lognormal frequency distributions
lognormal frequency distributions
Most prospectors don
Most prospectors don
t recognize how severely

t recognize how severely
skewed natural distributions are
skewed natural distributions are
Process:
Process:
Postulate tentative high-side and low-side outcomes
plot at P10 percent and P90 percent points
evaluate the plausibility of the consequential P1 percent,
P50 percent, P99 percent and Mean outcomes
Iterate and reiterate the cumulative probability
Iterate and reiterate the cumulative probability
distribution until a
distribution until a
best fit
best fit
is obtained
is obtained
P. 2-40
Trap volume
Trap volume
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Areal extent
Areal extent
Areal extent
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Average porosity
Average porosity
Average porosity


Recovery factor
Recovery factor
Recovery factor

P. 2-41
P. 2-41
P. 2-41
Trap Volume perspectives
Trap Volume perspectives
Assessment starts with the volume of the
Assessment starts with the volume of the
trap
trap
Remember to model the trap initially,
Remember to model the trap initially,
DO
DO
NOT INFER ANY HC FILL AT THIS
NOT INFER ANY HC FILL AT THIS
STAGE!
STAGE!
Recommended approach is to use depth /
Recommended approach is to use depth /
volume plot (demonstrated later)
volume plot (demonstrated later)
Modern 3D data sets and work stations
Modern 3D data sets and work stations
make this much easier
make this much easier
Adjust volumes with geometry factors
Adjust volumes with geometry factors
Assure that your workstation handles this
correctly
Edge Water Model
Edge Water Model
Bottom Water Model
Bottom Water Model
Which requires more correction by
Which requires more correction by
geometry factor? Why?
geometry factor? Why?
How does your work
station know to choose the
lesser of closure height or
reservoir thickness or
does it need to?
Mapping Exercise
Mapping Exercise
1.
1.
Draw contours for sand
Draw contours for sand
thickness.
thickness.
2.
2.
Estimate the Min, ML, and Max
Estimate the Min, ML, and Max
for locations A and B.
for locations A and B.
3.
3.
Estimate chance of adequacy
Estimate chance of adequacy
(exceeding the Minimum)
(exceeding the Minimum)
4.
4.
Economic minimum sand
Economic minimum sand
thickness
thickness
50
50
P. 2-42
P. 2-43
ML
ML
School
School
Answer
Answer
Min?
Min?
Max?
Max?
P. 2-35
Trap volume
Trap volume
Trap volume
Reservoir thickness
Areal extent
Areal extent
Areal extent
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Average porosity
Average porosity
Average porosity


Recovery factor
Recovery factor
Recovery factor

Ref. P. 58+
65% 35%
Trap volume
Trap volume
Trap volume
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Areal extent
Areal extent
Areal extent
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Average porosity


Recovery factor
Recovery factor
Recovery factor

P. 2-44
Multiple realizations of permeability
Multiple realizations of permeability
P. 2-44
P. 2-45
C
o
u
n
t
s
C
o
u
n
t
s
C
o
u
n
t
s
C
o
u
n
t
s
C
o
u
n
t
s
Intrafossil
porosity
Moldic
porosity
Interparticle
porosity
Low-porosity,
cemented rocks
Microporosity
(A) (B)
(C) (D)
(E) (F)
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
-1000 0 0 -1000 +1000 +2000 +1000 +2000
Mean value and
standard deviation
Velocity deviation (m/s) Velocity deviation (m/s)
C
o
u
n
t
s
C
o
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n
t
s
C
o
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n
t
s
C
o
u
n
t
s
C
o
u
n
t
s
Intrafossil
porosity
Moldic
porosity
Interparticle
porosity
Low-porosity,
cemented rocks
Microporosity
(A) (B)
(C) (D)
(E) (F)
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
-1000 0 0 -1000 +1000 +2000 +1000 +2000
Mean value and
standard deviation
Velocity deviation (m/s) Velocity deviation (m/s)
0
2
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
0
0
6
0
0
8
0
0
1
0
0
0
1.0
0
1.0
0
1.0
0
1.0
0
1.0
0
1.0
0
1.0
0
10
0
10
0
20
0
30
0
15
0
20
0
16
0
C
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a
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P
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b
a
b
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C
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a
t
i
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e
P
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b
a
b
i
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i
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C
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m
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a
t
i
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e
P
r
o
b
a
b
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F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
Permeability (md)
Permeability (md) Permeability (md)
Cpc Cpf Cxd
Cxp Cs
Cf
Cgu
Matrix
Clasts
P. 2-46
P. 2-47
Distributions in Various Lithofacies - Porosity (%)
-0.04 -1.33 -0.38 -1.21 Kurtosis
-0.80 -0.17 -0.67 -0.53 Skewness
0.46 0.51 0.12 0.45 CV
4.21 8.46 3.29 8.98 Std. Dev.
- 27.00 - 27.00 Mode 2
7.00 7.00 27.00 7.00 Mode 1
8.20 16.60 27.35 23.20 Median
9.17 16.52 26.55 19.91 Mean
18.80 28.70 32.50 32.50 Maximum
2.80 2.60 19.30 2.60 Minimum
37.00 38.00 78.00 153.00
Points
Muddy Muddy-
Granular
Granular All
Lithofacies
Uthmaniyah field, Saudi Arabia
Uthmaniyah field, Saudi Arabia
Saner and Sahin,1999 Saner and Sahin,1999
P. 2-47
ALL 153
SAMPLES
GRANULAR
FACIES
MUDDY-GRANULAR
FACIES
MUDDY-FACIES
ALL 153
SAMPLES
GRANULAR
FACIES
MUDDY-GRANULAR
FACIES
MUDDY-FACIES
(A)
(C)
(E)
(G)
(B)
(D)
(F)
(H)
N
U
M
B
E
R

O
F

S
A
M
P
L
E
S
N
U
M
B
E
R

O
F

S
A
M
P
L
E
S
POROSITY % Log
-0
PERMEABILITY (md)
0 8 16 24 32 40
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
50
40
30
20
10
0
25
20
15
10
5
0
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
8
6
4
2
0
30
20
10
0
15
10
5
0
15
10
5
0
15
10
5
0
P. 2-48
Solid line
shows mean
permeabilities
CORING STATIONS
P
E
R
M
E
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y

(
m
d
)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
Exercise
Exercise
P. 2-49
Rock and fluid properties from geophysics
Rock and fluid properties from geophysics
Amplitudes
Amplitudes
Phase changes
Phase changes
Interval travel times between
Interval travel times between
events
events
Frequency variations
Frequency variations
Cross
Cross
-
-
plots
plots
Algorithms based on geostatistical
Algorithms based on geostatistical
concepts
concepts
Velocity ratios (Vp/Vs)
Velocity ratios (Vp/Vs)
P. 2-50
Seismic Attribute Analysis
Seismic Attribute Analysis (Hart, 1999 OGJ ) (Hart, 1999 OGJ )
Purpose
Purpose
Physical basis of relationships between well and seismic
data
Methods of predicting inter-well reservoir parameters
Attributes
Attributes
1. Amplitude
2. Complex trace attributes (instantaneous phase,
instantaneous frequency)
3. Time-derived (structure, isochron)
4. Horizon-derived (dip, azimuth)
5. Coherency
6. Others
P. 2-50
P wave vs. Bulk Density
P wave vs. Bulk Density
Gartner and Gartner and Schlager Schlager, AAPG, 1999 , AAPG, 1999
P. 2-51
Attribute Analysis Methodology
Attribute Analysis Methodology
1.
1.
Define/measure/interpret property for all wells
Define/measure/interpret property for all wells
2.
2.
Extract values of attributes at x
Extract values of attributes at x
-
-
y locations of
y locations of
wells
wells
3.
3.
Correlate well data and attribute(s)
Correlate well data and attribute(s)
Statistically significant correlation (regression,
geostatistics, neural networks, etc.)
4.
4.
Populate grid with derived data
Populate grid with derived data
5.
5.
Test for validity
Test for validity
Exclusion testing
History match
6.
6.
Verify physical mechanism for relationship
Verify physical mechanism for relationship
Rock physics, locally calibrated, properly applied
P. 2-51
Test for Validity
Test for Validity
Higher possibility of invalid
Higher possibility of invalid
(coincidental) relationship with:
(coincidental) relationship with:
Greater number of attributes considered
Fewer wells used for control
Factors:
Factors:
Random chance
Acquisition and processing parameters
Spatially variable surface conditions
Biased sampling of wells
P. 2-52
Attribute Case Study
Attribute Case Study (Hart, 1999 OGJ) (Hart, 1999 OGJ)
1.
1.
8 well
8 well
2.
2.
Multiple pay zones
Multiple pay zones
3.
3.
Used production indicator
Used production indicator
4.
4.
Decades of history
Decades of history
5.
5.
Fuzzy correlations
Fuzzy correlations
-
-
used
used
neural network
neural network
(Fig. A)
(Fig. A)
(Correlation coefficient
(Correlation coefficient
-
-
0.96)
0.96)
Results
Results
Production extremes not
Production extremes not
sampled by wells
sampled by wells
Fracture control observed
Fracture control observed
Rejected map
Rejected map
,
,
used fracture
used fracture
attribute (Fig. B)
attribute (Fig. B)
P. 2-52
Trap volume
Trap volume
Trap volume
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Areal extent
Areal extent
Areal extent
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Average porosity
Average porosity
Average porosity

Recovery factor
Recovery factor
Recovery factor

P. 2-53
P. 2-54
How to choose ? : Min, ML, Max
HC Fill perspectives
HC Fill perspectives
Frequently a critical element in assessment
Frequently a critical element in assessment
As always, local knowledge vital
As always, local knowledge vital
Best way to estimate is through HC Charge
Best way to estimate is through HC Charge
ML fill fraction should be related to trap
ML fill fraction should be related to trap
volume
volume
ML Possibilities:
ML Possibilities:
Lognormal (0.32)
Normal ((0.55)
Maximized (1.0)
P. 3-25
Trap volume
Trap volume
Trap volume
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Reservoir thickness
Areal extent
Areal extent
Areal extent
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Net/gross ratio
Average porosity
Average porosity
Average porosity

Recovery factor
Relative volumes
Relative volumes
Prospect Assessment
Prospect Assessment
Success
Success
-
-
1. Define minimum economic size
3. Combine factors to derive
assessment curve
4. Estimate adequacy of achieving
P. 2-56
Provide selection priorities Provide selection priorities
for choices among prospects for choices among prospects
within organization. Review within organization. Review
current and past evaluations current and past evaluations
to develop internal to develop internal
consistency in application. consistency in application.
Combine reservoir Combine reservoir
parameters to produce parameters to produce
statistically correct statistically correct
assessment curve. Determine assessment curve. Determine
ranges of values for reservoir ranges of values for reservoir
parameters, from multiple parameters, from multiple
sources and ranges of sources and ranges of
uncertainty of each to uncertainty of each to
combine for volumetric combine for volumetric
calculation. calculation.
Describe techniques of Describe techniques of
assessing trap volumes and assessing trap volumes and
calculating statistical ranges calculating statistical ranges
of expected volumes of expected volumes
2. Prospect Volume 2. Prospect Volume
Calculation Calculation
of:
of:
closure area
porosity
recovery factor
P. 2-56
3. Combine Factors to Derive Assessment Curve
3. Combine Factors to Derive Assessment Curve
Factors multiplied to achieve
Factors multiplied to achieve
assessment
assessment
curve
curve
for all potential size accumulations
for all potential size accumulations
that meet defined circumstances
that meet defined circumstances
Usually combined through
Usually combined through
Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
methods
methods
Minimum
Minimum
(P100 of curve) should be equal
(P100 of curve) should be equal
to minimum economic size
to minimum economic size
Mean
Mean
= average of potential outcomes
= average of potential outcomes
P. 2-56
Building an Assessment Curve
Curve represents our best interpretation of the prospect Curve represents our best interpretation of the prospect
size size
Most if not all of these factors are represented by ranges of Most if not all of these factors are represented by ranges of
values values
Statistically valid Statistically valid potential sizes for the combination of potential sizes for the combination of
values values
y axis shows y axis shows exceedance probabilities exceedance probabilities (percentage of all of (percentage of all of
the potential sizes larger than the value plotted) the potential sizes larger than the value plotted)
Keep in mind that for each accumulation we assess there Keep in mind that for each accumulation we assess there
is a unique solution is a unique solution
If we assess carefully and consistently, most volumes for If we assess carefully and consistently, most volumes for
successful cases will fall near the average predicted successful cases will fall near the average predicted
volumes ( volumes (mean mean) )
Predicted values most frequently combined using a Predicted values most frequently combined using a Monte Monte
Carlo Carlo computer program computer program
P. 2-56
Mean = 50.00
25.00 37.50 50.00 62.50 75.00
Actual Size Found
Curve represents our best interpretation of the prospect Curve represents our best interpretation of the prospect
size size
Most if not all of these factors are represented by ranges of Most if not all of these factors are represented by ranges of
values values
Statistically valid potential sizes for the combination of Statistically valid potential sizes for the combination of
values values
y axis shows y axis shows exceedance probabilities exceedance probabilities (percentage of all of (percentage of all of
the potential sizes larger than the value plotted) the potential sizes larger than the value plotted)
Keep in mind that for each accumulation we assess there Keep in mind that for each accumulation we assess there
is a unique solution is a unique solution
If we assess carefully and consistently, most volumes for If we assess carefully and consistently, most volumes for
successful cases will fall near the average predicted successful cases will fall near the average predicted
volumes ( volumes (mean mean) )
Predicted values most frequently combined using a Predicted values most frequently combined using a Monte Monte
Carlo Carlo computer program computer program
P. 2-56
Assessment Curve
Assessment Curve
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
100
200
300
400
MILLION BARRELS POTENTIAL
UNRISKED MEAN - 140
MINIMUM - 20
P. 2-59
ALPHA PROSPECT
ESTIMATES
1
ST
CASE 2
ND
CASE 3
RD
CASE 4
TH
Case 5
TH
Case
Closure area - acres
Avg. reservoir thickness - ft.
% HC fill of trap
Recovery (Bbl/ac. ft.)
Absolute Product (MM BO)
Vol ume Fac t or Est i mat es - Al pha Prospec t
1 2 3 4 5 6
Cl osure area - ac res 2500 3000 4000 4000 4700 5500
Avg. reservoi r t hi c k ness - f t . 10 30 50 50 70 90
% HC f i l l of t rap 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1
Rec overy (Bbl /ac . f t .) 400 450 500 500 550 600

Exercise
Exercise
-
-
Monte Carlo Demonstration
Monte Carlo Demonstration
Reserves (MMBO) = [area (acres) x thickness (ft.) x HC fill (%) Reserves (MMBO) = [area (acres) x thickness (ft.) x HC fill (%) x recovery x recovery
factor (Bbl./ac. ft)]/10 factor (Bbl./ac. ft)]/10
9 9
P. 2-58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 50 100 150 200
Assessment Curve
Assessment Curve
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
100
200
300
400
MILLION BARRELS POTENTIAL
UNRISKED MEAN - 140
MINIMUM - 20
P. 2-59
P100
P50
P0
100 t est s, 20 suc c esses, 80 dr y hol es
Chance of adequacy =
Chance of adequacy =
0.20
0.20
Understanding risked reserves
Understanding risked reserves
Probability of each Probability of each
potential size for potential size for
prospect prospect Successful Successful
cases only cases only
Size of a discovery if Size of a discovery if
average results average results
achieved achieved mean mean
reserves reserves
Probability of Probability of
potential sizes potential sizes
includes all includes all
dry hole dry hole
possibilities possibilities
P20
Remember,
Remember,
Only
Only
one result is possible
one result is possible
.
.
These illustrations
These illustrations
offer probabilities of all
offer probabilities of all
potential outcomes
potential outcomes
based upon our
based upon our
assessment knowledge
assessment knowledge
Risked Assessment Curve
Risked Assessment Curve
P. 2-60
MINIMUM 20
UNRISKED MEAN
140
MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL
420
MILLION BBL POTENTIALLY RECOVERABLE
CHANCE
GREATER
THAN
0 100 200 300 400
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
0
RISKED
MEAN
35
RISKED ASSESSMENT CURVE
V - 397
V - 381
V
V
397
397
200 BCFG
200 BCFG
V
V
381
381
Mean reserves Mean reserves: :
120 BCFG 120 BCFG
Adequacy Adequacy: : 0.20 0.20
Risked Reserves Risked Reserves: :
24 BCFG 24 BCFG
Play Economics
Play Economics
:
:
100 miles offshore
100 miles offshore
Minimum
Minimum
Economics
Economics
:
:
30 BCFG
30 BCFG
Cumulative Curve Exercise
Cumulative Curve Exercise
Write exceedance chances
Write exceedance chances
Plot pairs
Plot pairs
Plot additional intermediate
Plot additional intermediate
points
points
Calculate a mean value for the
Calculate a mean value for the
distribution
distribution
Plot a risk
Plot a risk
-
-
discounted curve
discounted curve
P. 2-62
Swanson
Swanson
s Rule
s Rule
P
90
___________ x 0.3 = ____________
P
50
___________ x 0.4 = ____________
P
10
___________ x 0.3 = ____________
SUM = MEAN _________
P. 2-62
Medi an
645
Mean
689
Ri sked Mean
345
1.0
.05
0.0
200
600
1000
1400
Max
2202
P. 15-3

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What is the probability?

t recognize how severely

Percent of trap filled (HC fill)

Shrinkage or volume factor

Oil or gas fraction of HC volume

Percent of trap filled (HC fill)

Shrinkage or volume factor

Oil or gas fraction of HC volume

Percent of trap filled (HC fill)

Shrinkage or volume factor

Oil or gas fraction of HC volume

Shrinkage or volume factor

Oil or gas fraction of HC volume

Percent of trap filled (HC fill)

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