Applied Geography 25 (2005) 287307 www.elsevier.

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Multi-criteria evaluation and least cost path analysis for an arctic all-weather road
David M. Atkinsona, Peter Deadmanb,*, Douglas Dudychab, Stephen Traynorc
a Department of Geography, Queens University, Kingston, Ont., Canada K7L 3N6 Department of Geography, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ont., Canada N2L 3G1 c Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development, Nunavut Regional Ofce, P.O. Box 2200, Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada X0A 0H0 b

Abstract Increasing interest in the development of the base metal, gold, and diamond resources in the Slave Geological Province in Nunavut has led to the proposal that a deep-water port be constructed in Bathurst Inlet and connected to these mining regions by an all-weather road. In response to previous concerns regarding the subjectivity of existing techniques for route determination, this paper outlines a methodology for determining a least-cost-path for the route of an all-weather road that incorporates multi-criteria analysis. This methodology allows for the objective comparison of alternate scenarios for weighting the factors that determine the location of a roads route. The methodology is applied, using three alternate scenarios for road construction that are compared so as to determine the effectiveness and sensitivity of this approach. The strengths and limitations of this methodology are discussed. q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE); Pair-wise comparison; Least Cost Path; Artic; Route determination; GIS

Introduction Covering approximately 190,000 km2 within Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, the Slave Geological Province (SGP) is the richest and most promising mining region

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: pjdeadma@fes.uwaterloo.ca (P. Deadman).

0143-6228/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2005.08.001

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within Canadas north (Reynolds, 1996). Diamonds, gold, and various base metals comprise the majority of mineral resources in the SGP. The region currently contains two operating mines, while over 25 diamond, gold, or base metal mining projects are in various stages of exploration or development (GNWT, 1999). Winter roads have been used for decades throughout Northern Canada as supply routes for temporary access to natural resources (Hayley & Valeriote, 1994). The seasonal, weather-dependant nature of ice roads can limit the economic viability of northern projects, especially base metal mining operations. Furthermore, climate change scenarios indicate that the arctic will experience signicant warming (Serreze et al., 2000) this may reduce the length of the ice road season, placing further economic pressures on mining operations in the region. In response to this problem, proposals have been developed for the construction of a deep-water port in Bathurst Inlet, Nunavut and an all-weather road into the mining region around Contwoyto Lake, Nunavut (Fig. 1). An all-weather road would solve the problems associated with the existing ice road and increase the economic feasibility of many mining operations. While the construction of an all-weather road through this region of the arctic could aid in the economic development of the region, and the Canadian arctic more broadly, it also raises a number of concerns regarding the impacts on the fragile environment of the region. Clearly, the ability to understand and incorporate many complex factors into the design of a route for such a road is important. Any tool capable of incorporating multiple factors into the design, selection, and evaluation of alternate routes would be useful in

Fig. 1. Study site.

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support of the decision making process. This paper presents a geographic information system (GIS) based methodology that combines least cost path (LCP) analysis on a continuous surface and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to facilitate route generation based on multiple environmental and economic criteria. Weights for the route criteria are generated though a pair-wise comparison of criteria based on three decision-making scenarios (Fig. 2). The methodology presented allows the exploration of a variety of scenarios in an effort to strike a balance between development and the protection of the environment. The ability to model the routing of such a road could not only reduce the costs of construction and maintenance but also allow for sensitive environmental areas to be avoided and protected.

Fig. 2. Flow diagram of the least cost path algorithm.

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Cold region road construction Many of the factors inuencing the routing of an all-weather haul road in the arctic are determined by cold region design and construction standards and techniques. Factors that inuence the performance of an arctic all-weather road include; climate, hydrology, topography, geology, vegetation, material availability and suitability, and the soils thermal state (Schraeder, Riddle, & Slater, 1996). The continuous permafrost is a controlling design parameter when working in this region. The permafrost must either be preserved (prevented from thawing) or completely removed (McFadden & Bennett, 1991). Drainage is one of the most important considerations even though precipitation is low. Pooled water can quickly alter the thermal regime of the underlying soils, increasing the risk of damage to the road. The largest threat to a road embankment in cold regions is the stability of the underlying soils. Even if the embankment itself is stable it may suffer damage if its level of support from underlying soils changes. The richer the ice-content, the thicker the embankment design will need to be. It is desirable to obtain gravel of the requisite quality and quantity and keep the haul distance to a practical minimum. A good clean gravel embankment makes a very good foundation in a very cold environment where it is possible to contain the zero degrees Celsius isotherm within the embankment (Schraeder et al., 1996).

Least cost path analysis The study of the least-cost path problem predates the development of modern GIS. Some of the earliest work came from Warntz (1957) who considered where a good must be transported over two broad regions, each with a different cost of transportation. There are a number of basic steps in nding a minimum cost path over a surface partitioned into regions of different resistances to movement (Collischonn & Pilar, 2000; Douglas, 1994) (Fig. 2): A friction surface is created for each evaluation criterion, where each cell in the grid is assigned a value based on the relative cost of traversing that cell. Multiple friction surfaces are weighted and combined to create a cost-of-passage surface, representing the total cost associated with traversing each cell. A spreading function combines two separate grids representing source points and destination points are combined with the cost-of-passage grid to calculate an accumulated cost surface. The lowest cost line is traced down the accumulated-cost-surface from a departure point to a destination. The resulting path is considered optimal for all criteria considered (Lee & Stucky, 1998). The use of least-cost path analysis for real world problems has become possible with the development with todays fast and powerful computers (Lee & Stucky, 1998). There have been several recent applications of least-cost path methodologies which involve:

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selecting the fastest path with the least slope based on elevation data (Stefanakis & Kavouras, 1995); selecting the best route for a pipeline based on land use and land cover data (Feldman, Pelletier, Walser, Smoot, & Ahl, 1996); selecting the cheapest route to transport commodities based on land use and topographic data (Jaga, Sundaram, & Natarajan, 1993). Now, the computation of least-cost paths is considered the most useful tool available for determining the optimal path from one or more origin points to one or more destination points (Lee & Stucky, 1998). The methodology for the calculation of an accumulated-cost surface is well documented in commercial GIS packages and in Collischonn and Pilar (2000); Douglas (1994), and Lee and Stucky (1998). What is lacking in many of the methodological discussions is how to appropriately weight and combine factors to create suitable cost-surfaces and how to incorporate differing weighting scenarios and differing points of view in the routing process. Often activities such as the selection of an appropriate route between two points are undertaken by an individual or a small group. In such a process, outcomes can be inuenced by personal bias toward certain objectives or the inconsistent application of the project criteria to the route study area (Motemurro, Barnett, & Gale, 1998). Routes for features such as roads, railways, or pipelines are often constrained by physical, environmental, political, social, economic, and regulatory factors. A system that can optimize relationships among these factors and identify trade-offs can produce a wide range of alternatives (Montemurro et al., 1998).

Multi criteria evaluation When using least-cost path analysis to determine route alternatives, the perceived importance, or weight, of each criterion will directly affect the routing outcome. Therefore, a process to determine the relative importance of criteria is required. This process is known as multi-criteria evaluation (MCE). The decision about which route alternative to select would be dened as a multi-objective decision (Eastman, 1999). An objective is understood here to imply a perspective, philosophy, or motive that guides the construction of a specic multi-criteria decision rule. In the case of routing an arctic road, the objective of a mining company might be economical construction, whereas the objective of an environmental group would likely be environmental protection. The criteria they consider, and the relative importance of these criteria, will likely be quite different. Each party faces the challenge of assessing and clearly articulating the relative importance of the criteria inuencing the decision. Multi-criteria evaluation requires the determination of the importance, or weight, of each criterion to the decision making process as a whole. Within the context of multispatial-criteria evaluation, Rao et al. (1991) state that a logical process for the development of such weights is the procedure of pair-wise comparisons developed by Saaty (1977). The procedure outlined by Saaty (1977, 1980) rates the importance of each factor, or criterion, relative to every other factor using a 9-point reciprocal scale. Fig. 3 shows the 9-point rating scale developed by Saaty (1977). If, for example, we were comparing factor I with factor J and were to state that factor I was very more important than factor J then a value of 7 would be placed in an n!n matrix

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Fig. 3. Nine point reciprocal scale developed by Saaty (1977).

of ratings (where n is the number of factors being considered). The reciprocal of that rating would be 1/7 meaning that J is very less important than I. The number of factor comparisons can be determined using the following formula. nn K1 2

Comparisons Z

(1)

Let us suppose that there are three (3) criteria A, B, and C. In this case three (3) comparisons are required to complete a 3!3 matrix Y, according to the previous formula. The three statements, and the resulting comparison matrix based on Saatys 9-point scale, are shown in Fig. 4. Saaty (1977) has shown that the principal eigenvector of the comparison matrix represents a best-t set of weights. In pair-wise comparison, consistency within comparisons is important. Saaty (1980), states that a consistency ratio (CR) of 0.10 or less is considered acceptable. The CR value is the probability that the weights are random. The principal eigenvector corresponding to matrix Y is seen in vector W shown in Fig. 5 along with the consistency ratio. In a general sense, a GIS model can be thought of as the process of combining a set of input maps with a function to produce an output map (Bonham-Carter, 1994). For this paper, the combination of factors represents the creation of the cost surface for least-cost path analysis. There are a number of models for combining maps together including Boolean operations, index overlay, and fuzzy logic. The Boolean model takes a strict binary (true or false) approach to a problem, while the greatest disadvantage of the index overlay is its linear additive nature. Both Eastman (1999); Bonham-Carter (1994), suggest that a fuzzy logic approach is in many ways similar to the index overlay method

Fig. 4. Criteria comparison statements, and the resulting reciprocal matrix.

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Fig. 5. Eigenvector produced from the comparison matrix with consistency ratio.

but offers a more exible set of combination options and improves on the linear additive nature of the index overlay model. In classical set theory, set membership is dened as true or false, 1 or 0. Membership in a fuzzy set is expressed on a continuous scale from 1 (full membership) to 0 (full nonmembership). Fuzzy membership values can be applied to categorical, ordinal, or interval variables. As long as fuzzy membership values lie within the range of 0 and 1 there are no practical constraints on the choice of fuzzy membership values (Bonham-Carter, 1994). Yager (1977) established that raising a fuzzy set by the power of its weighted eigenvalue, derived from Saatys pair-wise comparison technique for developing criteria weights, was a good method for adjusting fuzzy sets to reect their relative importance prior to combining fuzzy membership functions. Yager (1977); Bonham-Carter (1994), and Zimmerman and Zysno (1980) all show that fuzzy sets provide very useful tools to investigate multi-criteria decision problems. One reason for this is that fuzzy sets provide a mathematical structure for manipulating and evaluating vague ideas that can become very complex (Yager, 1977). What is important is that the idea of comparing the criteria as to their importance incorporates an ability to account for trade-offs between criteria. Furthermore, the power of each criterion that is included in the model corresponds to a hierarchical structure in the sense that various experts can evaluate each fuzzy set and then these can be combined to create a result based on all criteria. As an example of a fuzzy membership we can examine the degree of membership in the set dened as suitable locations for a road. Let us consider a siting of a road in relation to a stream, where it is more desirable to be further from the stream to a maximum of 60 m; the stream is dened as 010 m. The fuzzy values for positions start to rise above 0.0 immediately at the stream boundary (10m) and approach a value of 1.0 at the 60 m mark. Further distance does not increase the value since the distance is far enough to not affect the stream or the road. Such a membership function might be expressed as in Fig. 6 along with its accompanying graphical representation of that linear function. In this example, X is the distance in meters and x(x) is the fuzzy membership function. The ordered pairs (X, x(x)) are known as the fuzzy set (Bonham-Carter, 1994). According to Bonham-Carter (1994), the shape of fuzzy membership function need not be linear; it can take any analytical or arbitrary shape appropriate to the problem, and can be expressed as a continuous surface, lists, or tables of numbers. One must be aware that when discretisizing continuous data some data may be lost in the generalization. Previously we developed a set of weights for three criteria A, B, and C (Fig. 4). Let us now assign a fuzzy membership value to each of those criteria. Within each criterion there are four classes, each of which has an assigned fuzzy value (Table 1). These values are derived from an example given in Yager (1977).

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Fig. 6. Fuzzy membership function and graph for stream data.

Yager (1977) states that the rst step is that the unit eigenvector W needs to be scaled. The reason for this is that if all the criteria were equal then the there would be no effect on the fuzzy values entering the decision function. Each fuzzy set is then raised by the power of its scaled eigenvalue. The scaled values for the three criteria are shown in Table 1. This scaling procedure means that important criteria are exponentially weighted heavy forcing them into the decision process while small values tend to make the membership value smaller which effectively takes them out of the process (Yager, 1977). Zimmermann (1985) discusses a variety of fuzzy logic combinations such as the fuzzy algebraic product, the fuzzy algebraic sum and the fuzzy gamma operator. The fuzzy
Table 1 Fuzzy values, and scaled fuzzy values, assigned to each criterias four subclasses Fuzzy Values Class 1 2 3 4 Scaled fuzzy values Class 1 2 3 4 Criteria A 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 Criteria A0.48 0.72 0.84 0.56 0.78 B1.77 0.29 0.2 0.67 0.2 C0.75 0.3 0.03 0.2 0.92 B 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 C 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.9

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algebraic product combines fuzzy memberships through multiplication. This model is decreasive since the output value is always less than or equal to the smallest fuzzy membership. The fuzzy algebraic sum is complementary to the algebraic product. Unlike the algebraic product, the algebraic sum is always greater than or equal to the largest contributing fuzzy membership value. This creates an increasive effect although the output is limited to a maximum value of 1.0. The nal combination operator is, in essence, a combination of the previous operators. The Gamma operation utilizes the algebraic sum and the algebraic product in the following formula Gamma Z Algebraic sumy Algebraic product1Ky (2)

The y is a parameter chosen in the range (0,1). When the y is 1, the combination is the same as the algebraic sum, while when y is 0 the combination is the same as the algebraic product (Bonham-Carter, 1994; Zimmerman & Zysno, 1980). According to Bonham-Carter (1994), a judicious choice of y produces output values that ensure a exible compromise between the increasive fuzzy algebraic sum and the decreasive effects of the fuzzy algebraic product. The selection of y is arbitrary and based on degree of increasive or decreasiveness that is desired for a given solution. An increasive solution includes more trade-offs creating more possible solutions, though they may not be ideal, while a decresive solution remains more rigid to the rule structure. In the case of selecting a y value for least-cost path analysis a low value (yZ0) can result in a path that has effectively removed the distance element to the routing and relies more on cell weights to determine the route. This could result in a very sinuous path. Selecting a high y (yZ1) could result in a path that minimizes the distance between two points and produce a straight path that ignores factors other than distance.

Methods The study area for this project is a large section of the Barren lands within the boundaries 65678N, and 1061128W. Previously proposed routes for an all-weather road run from the proposed port at Bathurst inlet to the area around Contwoyto lake (Fig. 1). The regions climate is classied as arctic tundra. The entire region is underlain with continuous permafrost (Natural Resources Canada, 1995), with an active thaw layer of about 0.51 m (Judge, Taylor, Burgess, & Allen, 1981). The methodology utilizes a GIS to prepare, weight, and combine construction factors. Actual construction costs are not included in this model as those values were unobtainable, and the assignment of monetary costs to environmental factors is beyond the scope of this paper. Instead a multi-criteria decision making methodology of pairwise comparisons is used to determine factor weights for three scenarios, an environmentally sensitive scenario, a strict engineering scenario, and a comprehensive scenario. These scenarios are based on subjective knowledge driven concepts. A detailed description of the weighting methods along with any assumptions made will be outlined.

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Construction factors The ultimate purpose of this methodology is to combine spatial data from diverse sources, in order to create a cost-of-passage surface that can be analyzed through least-cost path analysis to generate route alternatives, based on a series of factor scenarios. One of the initial steps is to identify the input factors that can be generated from the available data. Though there are many factors that can inuence the routing of a cold region road, this methodology only examines factors for which spatial data were collected or readily available. Cost factors for this methodology will be classied into two categories, engineering factors, and environmental factors. Each category has what could be viewed as a set of objectives, accompanying those objectives are spatial data inputs that would accomplish them. Table 2 outlines both the engineering and environmental objectives and their associated spatial data. For a least-cost path algorithm to be applied, the vector data were converted to raster format with a cell size of 20 m. This resolution was considered an acceptable trade-off between processing time, with increased number of cells, and the detail for small landscape features. Extensive pre-processing for each factor was required to prepare it for inclusion in a least-cost path analysis. For further discussion, see Atkinson (2003)

Table 2 Scenario criteria and associated data processing Engineering goals Avoid bodies of water Minimize stream crossing Maximize construction on low ice content surcial material Maximize proximity to aggregate sources to minimize haul distance Maintain low grade (Slope) Avoid bodies of water Avoid stream crossing Avoid sensitive soils Spatial data Lake locations Stream buffers Surcial Material Classications Esker and rock locations and Haul costs Slope maps Lake locations Stream buffers Surcial material classications Wolf den and archaeological site buffers Data source NTS 1:250 K NTS 1:250 K Satellite derived classications (Orazietti, 2003) Esker databaseb (WKSS, 1999) NTS 1:250K NTS 1:250K NTS 1:250K Satellite derived classications (Orazietti, 2003) Esker database (WKSS, 1999) Pre-processing Boolean Clip 20, 40, 60 m Boolean Clip 20, 40, 60 m Clipped to study area

Spreading function for haul costs DEM Boolean clip 20, 40, 60 m Boolean clip 20, 40, 60 m Clipped to study area

Avoid sensitive wildlife and cultural sites

Spreading funciton 2501000 m

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Factor weightings For reasons outlined previously, each factor will be dened in terms of a fuzzy membership function. Traditionally, fuzzy membership functions are expressed on a continuous scale from 1 (full membership) to 0 (full non-membership). Fuzzy map values are dened according to a given spatial locations degree of membership in a set. In this methodology the values for each factor map are assigned a fuzzy membership value based on their degree of membership in the set suitable for a road. For example, the fuzzy set for surcial material is based on the suitability of different materials for road construction. Rock provides a solid base for a road so has a high degree of membership in the set suitable for a road while deep till requires a thicker roadbed to protect the underlying permafrost so has a lower degree of membership in the suitable for a road set. For the least cost path analysis, the polarity of the fuzzy membership function is reversed so that values closer to 0 indicate stronger membership in the suitable for a road set. This is necessary because the least cost path algorithm interprets the cell values as costs. Reversing the polarity of the fuzzy membership function assigns lower cost values to cells that are more suitable for a road. The fuzzy values reect the degree of membership in the suitable for a road set and are based on information gathered through a literature review of expert knowledge. Subjective judgment was required to translate qualitative information from the literature into quantitative fuzzy membership values. A detailed discussion of how the costs for each factor were developed is beyond the scope of this paper. However, the considerations surrounding each factor are briey discussed below. The surcial material factor is based on the fact that lower ice content materials, such as rock and thin till, do not require a thick road base and are less prone to permafrost degradation. For this reason they are better materials to build a road on and thus given a fuzzy value closer to zero. Table 3 summarizes the attribute values and corresponding fuzzy membership values for this criterion. The maximum slope for the road is 8%. This methodology does not account for cut and ll construction techniques and is looking to nd the route that follows the lowest natural slope. For this reason it was decided to eliminate all areas of slope greater than 10%.
Table 3 Attribute data and fuzzy values for the surcial material factor Surcial material Legend Unknown water Gravel Organic Rock T1 T2 T3 Unknown/cloud Bridge Class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Fuzzy 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1

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Continuous fuzzy values were derived by processing the slope data with the following linear equation where x is the percent slope. mx Z 0:099x (3)

Steep regions, with a slope between 9 and 10% were given the highest values of 0.89 and 0.99 this creates the possibility that some slopes in this range may be crossed by the path but the higher value will limit them. The stream distance factor acknowledges that crossing streams is necessary in road construction but the ideal is to minimize crossings and approach them at right angles if possible. Furthermore, if a stream is not to be crossed, the road should travel at least 60 m away to minimize disturbances or contamination. The stream location was given a fuzzy value of 0.9 away from that the following linear formula (where x is the distance away from the stream) was used to determine the decreasing fuzzy values to a maximum of 60m after which a fuzzy value of 0.1 was assigned to all distances greater than 60 m. mx Z K 0:0075x C 1:05 (4)

For the Archaeological and Wolf Den sites it was decided that areas within 250 m of the site were to be eliminated from analysis to insure that no route would enter such an area. Using a distance function and the following formula the fuzzy values were determined to the maximum distance of 1 km after which the lowest value of 0.1 was assigned mx Z K 0:0008x C 0:9 (5)

Construction of a road in this region depends upon access to local aggregate sources. Access to these sources will most likely require the further construction of access roads to link the main road construction with the aggregate source. The designs of these access roads also form an interesting least-cost path problem that is not within the scope of this paper. Some understanding of haul cost is required to ensure that the main road is constructed to minimize haul distances. The esker and rock haul distance factor was created using a cost surface and a spreading function. Further details on the creation of this factor can be found in Atkinson (2003). Least cost path scenarios To outline how this methodology allows the factors discussed above to be combined in different ways, three decision scenarios were examined. Each scenario placed a differing level of importance on the different factors. The scenarios result in different factor weights and thus generate three cost-of-passage surfaces and least cost paths. The three scenarios were developed to approximate an engineering based approach to routing a cold-region road, an approach where more importance was given to environmental factors, and nally an approach representing a compromise between the engineering and environmental scenarios. Within each scenario factors deemed unnecessary to the location of a road were given a weight of zero. The non-zero weight factors were weighted using Saatys paired comparison technique. The comparisons were made using IDRISI 32s WEIGHT module which also output the eigenvalues for each factor along with the consistency ratio. As

Table 4 Comparison matrix with eigenvalues and scaled map weights for the (a) engineering scenario (b) environmental scenario and (c) compromise scenario cost factors (a) Surcial Esker Dist Rock Slope Streams Wolf site Arc site (b) Surcial Esker dist Rock Slope Streams Wolf site Arc site (c) Surcial Esker dist Rock Slope Streams Wolf site Arc site Surcial 1 1/3 1/4 1/4 1/7 Esker Dist 1
1

Rock

Slope

Streams

Eigen vector 0.4714 0.2303 0.1549 0.099 0.0444 N/A N/A 1 Arch Eigen vector 0.1491 0.0573 0.0436 0.0556 0.2046 0.2449 0.2449 1 Eigen vector 0.3119 0.1831 0.1376 0.1269 0.0883 0.0761 0.0761 1

Eigen!5 2.357 1.1515 0.7745 0.495 0.222 0 0 5 Eigen!7 1.04 0.40 0.31 0.39 1.43 1.71 1.71 7 Eigen!7 2.1833 1.2817 0.9632 0.8883 0.6181 0.5327 0.5327 7

1/3 1/5

1 1/3 1/3

1 1/4

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Consistency Surcial 1 1/5 1/6 1/3 2 3 3 Consistency Surcial 1 1/3 1/4 1/3 1/3 1/2 1/2 Consistency

0.06 Esker Dist 1 1/2 1/2 4 5 5 0.07 Esker Dist 1

1 1

Sum Rock Slope Streams Wolf

1 1/2 5 6 6 Rock

1 2 3 3 Slope

1 1 1 Streams

1 1 Wolf

1 Sum Arch

2 2

1/3 1/2 1/2 0.07

1 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2

1 1/3 1/2 1/2

1 1/2 1/2

1 1

1 Sum

299

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previously mentioned, the eigenvalues were multiplied by the number of non-zero-weight factors to obtain scaled eigenvalues which then were used to exponentially weight each factors fuzzy value (Yager, 1977). The location of water bodies was included in each scenario as a Boolean clip to the surcial material dataset. Each scenario had a hard rule for the distance from a lake that the road could be located. The lake locations along with a 20, 60, and 40 m buffer were classed as a no-data barrier for the engineering, environmental, and comprehensive scenarios, respectively. This Boolean operation is analogous to a group requiring that specic land parcels be off limits to development. For the Engineering scenario only ve factors were evaluated with non-zero-weights. These factors are surcial material, esker distance, rock distance, slope, and streams. Wolf den sites and Archaeological sites were given a weight of zero. Ten comparisons are made using the 9-point scale discussed previously. The Environmental scenario evaluated seven non-zero factors: surcial material, esker distance, rock distance, slope, streams, wolf den sites and Archaeological sites. The nal scenario, the comprehensive scenario, also considered all seven factors as non-zero weights in the factor comparisons. Twenty-one comparisons are made using Saatys scale. The matricies of comparison values for each scenario are shown in Table 4. Least cost path modeling All spatial data analysis was undertaken using ArcGIS. The factor grids were exponentially weighted using the weights shown in Table 5, and the fuzzy product and fuzzy sum of the resulting weighted grids were calculated. The fuzzy product and fuzzy sum grids were combined in a Gamma operation (YZ0.7) to produce the nal cost surfaces. A YZ0.7 is slightly increasive but generates outputs that lie slightly above the initial rage of values. This value is a good balance between the routing factors and desire to minimize the total distance of the route. A cost surface was generated for each scenario representing the combined frictions of the weighted factors for each cell within the study area. These nal cost surfaces were then used to generate paths. The accumulated-cost-surface (ACS) was generated by treating the proposed port as the destination location and then using a spreading function to sum the costs of movement away from that destination. To generate paths from the ACS, all that was required was
Table 5 Scenario weights for each input factor Factor Surcial Esker dist Rock Slope Streams Wolf site Arc Sum Engineering weight 2.357 1.1515 0.7745 0.495 0.222 0 0 5 Environmental weight 1.04 0.40 0.31 0.39 1.43 1.71 1.71 7 Comprehensive weight 2.1833 1.2817 0.9632 0.8883 0.6181 0.5327 0.5327 7

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a starting location, in this case Lupin Mine, to then trace a least-cost line back to the destination.

Results Three routes were created through the least-cost path analysis, one for each weighting scenario. Fig. 7 shows the northern sections of the study area with the three generated routes and a fourth route that was proposed by the Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT) in 1999. The GNWT route, known as Route I, was determined through an air photo analysis. The gure shows the locations and size of esker deposits, wolf dens. Archaeological sites have been omitted from the map due to protective legislation. Within this route there are three areas where variation in route location occurs. These three areas (1, 2, and 3) will be used to better compare these routes. Area 1 can be seen in Fig. 8, area 2 in Fig. 9 and area 3 in Fig. 10. Within area 1 the study area is rather conning for the routes. All three routes follow very similar paths from Lupin west and then north towards the Contwoyto lake crossing point. Aggregate sources are scarce in this area and so do not inuence the path of the route. There is a cluster of archaeological sites in the northern section. The Engineering route bisects this cluster while the Comprehensive route travels around the cluster to

Fig. 7. Least-cost paths from the proposed port on Bathurst inlet to Lupin mine.

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Fig. 8. Lupin least-cost paths in sub-area 1.

the west. Route I, the GNWT route, follows a similar route to the LCP routes, though it takes a much wider curve around the western Contwoyto bay, and, like the Engineering Route, bisects the cluster of Archaeological sites. Area 2 shows much more variation in route location. There are only a few archaeological sites or wolf dens in the data for this area; they are located in the north, and so have little effect on the LCP routes. The Engineering route is pulled further south in this area by the aggregate deposits, then curves north again meeting up with the comprehensive route. Route I takes northern course, coming close to some archaeological sites, but is further from some larger aggregate deposits. Area three has the LCP routes again following a very similar path, yet it is quite different from route I. The LCP routes travel in a steady northeast route towards the port, while route I travels due east quite a distance then curves north. Again this area does not show many Archaeological sites, however there are a few Wolf dens near the port. Route I appears to run closer to some esker deposits in the eastern portions of the area, yet they are mostly small eskers that would not provide much aggregate. Stream crossings The number of stream crossings on a route can directly affect the cost of construction as well as the environment. The engineering route crosses the most streams with 93

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Fig. 9. Lupin least-cost paths in sub-area 2.

crossings, while the environmental route, which had streams with a larger criteria weight from the scenario comparisons, crosses far fewer at 77. The Comprehensive route crosses 82, which is very similar to Route I, which crosses 84. Aggregate volume The volume of aggregate required to construct a given route is dependant upon the underlying surcial material. The LCP routes and Route I have been examined in terms of their underlying surcial geology. Route I values have been taken from Orazietti (2003) who analysed all proposed routes in terms of aggregate. All routes are very close in overall length, including Route I, approximately 300 km in length. The lengths of road segments for each surcial geology type do vary. The largest difference is that Route I has 23% of its route traveling over thick, ice-rich till and 7% on organic soils which require thicker embankments to stabilize the underlying permafrost, compared to 2% and 1% respectively for the LCP routes. The majorities of LCP routes are on thin till veneer (54%) and rock (30%), which require much less aggregate to prevent permafrost degradation. These lengths make a signicant impact on the volume of aggregate required to construct the routes, when these least cost paths are compared to previously proposed routes in terms of aggregate requirements there is a 20% reduction in the required aggregate.

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Fig. 10. Lupin least-cost paths in sub-area.

Discussion Criteria evaluation Schraeder et al. (1996), and McFadden and Bennett (1991) all illustrate the importance of construction factors. What is not stated is the quantied importance of each of these factors, although certain criteria are emphasized. Personal bias toward certain objectives and inconsistencys can often result when criteria importance is guided by an individual or a small group (Montemurro et al., 1998). The criteria for the methodology were selected criteria based on the engineering literature, environmental principles, and the availability of spatial data. A mathematical structure for manipulating, evaluating and combining, road routing criteria is provided through the use of Saatys multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) method of pair-wise comparisons, along with the methods of weighting and combining fuzzy sets presented by Bonham-Carter (1994); Yager (1977). What has been illustrated is the idea that comparing the criteria, as to their importance in selecting a route, incorporates an ability to account for trade-offs. Second, the weight of each criterion corresponds to a hierarchical structure, in the sense that each fuzzy set can be evaluated by various experts, and these can then be combined to create the resulting cost surface and thus that experts least-cost path. The criteria comparisons and thus weights that were generated through the three

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scenarios, engineering, environmental, and comprehensive, were based on subjective decisions derived from the knowledge base within the literature. Although the actual weightings for a given scenario may be inaccurate, due to the subjective nature of the comparisons, the use of differing scenarios, which took different views, compensates for this. What is important is that this methodology of MCE provides a mathematical structure to ensure that criteria are evaluated equally across the study area and not subjectively within the study area. Route determination: LCP versus traditional approaches The traditional methodology that was used to produce the previously proposed routes is that of Terrain Unit Mapping using non-digital black and white air photos and maps (GNWT, 1999). Terrain units were evaluated by strictly using these data sources, no eldwork was undertaken. The GNWT routes were determined based on the criteria outlined in Table 6. The methodology for the previously proposed routes was subjective and qualitative. The use of a GIS and most importantly LCP analysis provides a methodology for a less subjective and more quantitative analysis. The power of GIS and LCP comes not only from the ability to store geographic data, but also from the ability to analyze it more efciently and more conveniently than is possible with paper maps (ESRI, 2000). The LCP analysis combines and analyzes all of the spatial criteria to produce a cost surface for the entire study area. The LCP analysis examines a variety of data over a large area relatively quickly and is consistent in its evaluation of criteria to nd the least-cost path based on the given data. Strengths and limitations A prime strength of this methodology is that it can be applied to routing applications for a variety of study areas and differing criteria can be compared and weighted to produce alternative routes. What is needed to apply this methodology to other locations
Table 6 Route selection criteria outlined by the GNWT Criteria Topography Bedrock surface Lakes River crossings Wet organic terrain Granular borrow sites Permafrost Implications Route selection should have little to no right-of-way excavation; embankment construction should average 0.51.5 m in thickness Route location should follow glacier-smooth surfaces with micro relief of 1.0 m Vertical and horizontal alignment considerations Route should minimize river crossings and locate crossings that are narrows and on suitable foundation conditions Route locations should avoid seasonally wet or permanent organic terrain wherever practical Route location should consider location, volume and composition of potential sources (i.e. esker complexes) Not considered a major factor in route location as entire area is a zone of permafrost

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and applications are identication of appropriate routing criteria and the data to represent those criteria for a study area. Within the context of this study area and application, the methodology can expand to handle additional criteria and more accurate data easily. There is a capability within this methodology to allow for differing groups or experts to evaluate criteria and produce routes. This methodology has the ability to produce a variety of routes relatively quickly when compared to the time consuming methods of air photo analysis. A limitation of this methodology is its reliance on a large amount of spatial data. The primary data issues are availability and scale. An attempt was made to gather data for as many factors as possible; there is a gap in available data for the region. Some examples of missing data, that may have proved useful include, snowdrift data, caribou migration data, and more detailed wildlife studies. An additional factor, that was not included, that could play a role in the routing of this all-weather road is the locations of known mineral deposits and their potential for development. This data was not available but could create a heavily weighted factor that could pull the road in the direction of the potential mine. The scale of the data is another limitation. At the time of the project computerprocessing power did not permit data at a ner scale. At the resolution that these grids were created their le size was rather large requiring several gigabytes of storage to allow for the data management and processing. If data at a larger scale was available, the le size may be prohibitively large, and inhibit processing. Other challenges exist with the pair-wise comparisons and determination of fuzzy values. The comparisons that were used in this project were based on subjective, knowledge-based judgments, but may not represent the opinions of an expert although the methodology permits the exibility of using expert opinion. Another issue may be how to compare criteria that cannot easily be compared. Physical properties of a factor are difcult to compare to emotions or ideologies. This project has contributed to our understanding of how pair-wise comparisons and fuzzy data sets can be used within a GIS and LCP analysis to determine possible routings of an arctic all-weather road. Ideally the methodology will provide a framework for further research and provide alternatives to the previously proposed routes. With some further renement, the methodology could be used by developers and decision makers with increased expert knowledge to create other routing alternatives. As better data becomes available, along with increased digital storage and processing capabilities, improved routes can be generated for this project and other routing applications.

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