To: Senior Staff, Seaborn for Congress From: Cody Ferrantino, Strategist Date: May 1, 2014 Re: Issues

to Highlight in Colorado 7th Election

Executive Summary This memo provides a brief summary of issues to emphasize or understate for the best chances to win the Colorado 7th. With regards to these key issues (abortion, taxing high income, the Affordable Care Act, and immigration), this district does not fall along predictable partisan lines and therefore, the candidate should exhibit extreme caution in his remarks on each of the four. It is recommended that the candidate actively support a progressive tax system and immigration reform, but de-emphasize his positions on abortion and the 2010 Affordable Care Act, in order to maximize vote share.

Data and Methods The survey, conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, included 897 respondents across the Colorado 7th district, surveying people from age 17-75+ and including Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Identifying markers included age, gender, race, highest level of education, income, and party identification. With a population of approximately 730,000 and a sample size of 897, the margin of error for this survey is 3.27%.

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The age breakdown of the respondents is as follows: 17-29 (14%), 30-54 (47%), and 55-75+ (39%). Of this sampled population, 46% qualify as Democrats, whether through identifying strongly, moderately, or leaning towards the Democratic party. 39% of those surveyed qualify as Republican, based on similar classifications, and only 14% identify as true Independents. Respondents were asked to evaluate their position on elective/non-life threatening abortion (Table A), reducing the deficit by more-heavily taxing those with an income greater than $250,000 (Table B), support for the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Table C), and the suggested US government policy on immigration (Table D). The results for each question are listed below. Results Table A indicates that 46% of all respondents support legal abortion even with no direct threat to the womans health, whereas 32% oppose such action and 22% are undecided. Table B indicates that an overwhelming 68% of respondents favor legislation that aims to reduce the deficit by more heavily taxing those who earn greater than $250,000 per year. Only 18% oppose the measure and 14% are undecided. Table C indicates that 41% of respondents favor the 2010 Affordable Care Act, whether strongly, moderately, or a little. A sizable 38% of respondents oppose the ACA and 21% are undecided on the issue.

Table D indicates that a majority of respondents, 56%, favor allowing unauthorized immigrants to remain in the United States with some restrictions. Only 19% favor deporting all undocumented persons and labeling them felons, while 17% support creating a Guest Worker program. Table A: Abortion
Favor or Oppose Legal Abortion When Nonfatal Health Risk Dem. Favor Oppose Neither Ind. Rep. 36% TOTAL

Table B: Progressive Tax System

Reduce Decit by Raising Income Tax for Those Making Over $250,000 Annually Dem. Favor Oppose Neither Ind. Rep. TOTAL

55%
22% 22%

44%
25% 30%

46%
32% 22%

87%
5% 8%

65%
12% 22%

48%
34% 18%

68%
18% 14%

45%
18%

Table C: 2010 ACA

Favor or Oppose the 2010! Affordable Care Act Dem. Favor Oppose Neither Ind. 26% Rep. 12% TOTAL

Table D: Immigration
Favored US Government Policy Toward Unauthorized Immigrants Dem.
Deport All
Guest Workers
Some Restrictions

Ind. 29% 13%

Rep. 25% 22%

TOTAL 19% 17%

70%
9% 21%

41%
38% 21%

11% 15%

37% 37%

73%
15%

63%

51%

50%

56%

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Recommendations Issue: Progressive Tax System Recommendation: Actively Support With 68% in support and only 14% with no opinion, the candidate has the potential to accrue voters through supporting this measure. Issue: Immigration Reform Recommendation: Actively Support 56% of respondents favored allowing undocumented immigrants to remain in the country with restrictions. The candidate will not lose votes for advocating this position. Issue: Legal Abortion Recommendation: Avoid Any stance in favor of unrestricted access to abortion should solidify his Democratic base, but will split the 22% with no opinion, potentially against the candidate. Issue: 2010 Affordable Care Act Recommendation: Avoid The candidate will not gain the few undecided Democrats or Republicans by supporting the ACA. Further, he will lose independent voters who might otherwise have supported him.