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Good afternoon and welcome to The Rundown. This weekend, violence escalated in Ukraine,
Syrian rebels lost the stronghold of Homs, and 2,000 people were killed in a mudslide in
Afghanistan. But enough about that; lets talk about the White House Correspondents Dinner!
Did you see J essica Simpson? Sofia Vergara? Far from bringing Hollywood style to
Washington substance, the event managed to bring Hollywood substance to Washington style.
Imagine.

Have a good week,
Your AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Studies team


Tweet of the Week
Sadanand Dhume @dhume
Intriguing possibility: The biggest hurdle to Rahul Gandhi one day becoming prime minister of
India is his sister. #GameOfThrones

In the News

American Internationalism Project
Its never a good day for Barack Obama when The New York Ti mes echoes the now conventional wisdom
that [i]t does not feel as if he is exercising sufficient American leadership and power in foreign policy. In
reality, the publics demand for US leadership remains strong indeed, stronger than many headlines
would have you believe.

On Wednesday, The Wall Street J ournal argued, based on a poll it conducted with NBC, that Americans in
large numbers want the US to reduce its role in world affairs despite the turmoil in Ukraine, Syria, the
Middle East and elsewhere. A grave concern for US foreign policy? Maybe, if it were true.

In a Foreign Policy article by Senators Joseph Lieberman and Jon Kyl, cochairs of AEIs American
Internationalism Project, they explain that The time has come for the advocates of US passivity to stop
talking about the popular mandate they never had and to speak honestly to the American people. And it's
high time for others to stop cowering before this imaginary consensus. There are real challenges to US
security and prosperity out there from Ukraine to Iran, Syria to China. It's time to give Americans the
leadership they want.

Ukraine
On Sunday, as Ukraines prime minister was visiting Odessa, a mob stormed a police station in the Black
Sea port and freed 67 pro-Russian militants from detention.

The Ukraine crisis, conceived and executed by the Kremlin, is part and parcel of Vladimir Putins long game.
In his most recent Russian Outlook, AEI's Leon Aron explains that Completing, post-Crimea annexation,
the inextricable merger of his physical existence with that of his regime, Putin has stepped on the dictator-
for-life escalator from which only physical demise, whether peaceful or violent, provides exit. Also see
Aron's AEIdeas blog post titled Putin's motivations: A helpful hint for Secretary Kerry.

As the West continues to seek options for Ukraine, John Bolton reflects on what could have been if
Georgia and Ukraine had been accepted to NATO in 2008: Had the Europeans backed Bush in 2008, we
might well have deterred Russian military and political aggression in both Georgia and Ukraine. In truth,
Europes timidity is a real obstacle to a more assertive response to Russian aggression. Bolton continues,
Obamas own weakness has created a vicious circle. European fears provide Obama with an excuse not to
act, and the failure of U.S. leadership leaves Europe even more reluctant to respond effectively. It may be
that Europe is not up to the task, but we will never find out if America does not first at least try to exercise
leadership, which Obama has consistently failed to do.


East Asia
Thousands of Philippine and US soldiers began annual war games on Monday, the first under a new
security pact with the United States, focusing on maritime security in the face of China's growing naval
presence in the disputed South China Sea.

As the United States continues to downsize military forces abroad, Dan Blumenthal and Michael Mazza
emphasize the necessity of maintaining a powerful US presence in the Pacific. Successful statecraft rests
on four pillars, Blumenthal writes. Sound strategic logic; high-level diplomacy that produces favorable
outcomes; economic leadership; military might to amplify diplomacy. Measured against these criteria, the
pivot falls short. Mazza underscores this argument by explaining, that the United States is prepared to act
in the face of aggressionwill be well-received by J apan, South Korea, the Philippines, and others. . . . The
Obama administration has not exactly drawn a new red line here, but it has expressed an intention to
respond to future Chinese assertiveness. Given how active China has been of late, we may soon find out
just how serious the president is.

Much of the talk surrounding the conclusion of President Obamas trip to Asia focused on promises made to
J apan over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands, his failure to make progress on the Trans Pacific
Partnership agreement, and the 10-year defense treaty America signed with the Philippines. But as Paul
Wolfowitz notes, President Obama made a largely unnoticed yet critical error while he was in Malaysi a.
A rare occurrence for presidential visits, President Obama deferred his meeting with Malaysias democratic
opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to National Security Adviser Susan Rice. Wolfowitz argues that by refusing
to meet with him, the president appears to be sending a green light to the Malaysian government, whether
he means to or not, that it can continue its legal persecution of the opposition leadership without meeting
any serious American objection.

For more on President Obamas trip to Asia, watch John Boltons latest interview with Fox News and listen
in on last weeks conference call in which several AEI Asia scholars weighed in on the conclusion of the
trip.

This week top news sources reported that based on a comparison of China and Americas respective GDP
and purchasing power parity (PPP) numbers, China might actually surpass the United States as the worlds
largest economy before the end of this year. Yet, as Derek Scissors explains, this is most certainly not the
case: The comparison makes no sense...PPP is supposed to be about purchasing power, as the term
indicates, not economic size. Most comparable goods and services are cheaper on average in Bangladesh
than in New Zealand. How do we jump from that, to saying Bangladeshs economy is really (much) bigger
than it seems?

Also see Scissors's explanation of whether China can successfully duplicate Americas success in energy
production, specifically shale, in the South China Morning Post, as well as further elaboration on the hope
and likel ihood of economic reform in China.

South Asia
Although the NATO combat mission in Afghanistan is due to end this year, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel
called upon the alliance to accept a new mission: stand up to a resurgent Russia. But what about
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and democratic India?

April 5 marked a milestone for Afghanistan in its journey toward democratic consolidation. Defying threats
from the Taliban, 6.9 million Afghan citizens voted for President Karzais successor and are now anticipating
a runoff in early J une. Both competitors have pledged to negotiate with the Taliban, but as Ahmad Majidyar
argues in his most recent paper, Negotiating with the Taliban: Lessons from hi story, this is not
necessarily a promising campaign pledge: The Talibans track record of negotiation is replete with
deception. In the past two decades, the Taliban has used negotiation more as a ploy to gain political and
military advantages than as a way to settle conflicts. With the United States phasing out its forces and
overall presence in the country, Ahmad asserts that the Obama administration must realize that there is no
quick fix to the threat of international terrorism emanating from South Asia and that combating and defeating
terrorism in the region require a long-term civilian and military commitment by the United States and its
allies.

In the final weeks of Indias parliamentary elections, many are asking, what would a Bharatiya J anata Party
victory look like for India's Muslim minority of 150 million? Front-runner Narendra Modis reputation with the
Muslim population has been a contentious one since violence erupted between Muslims and Hindus in his
state of Gujarat in 2002. But as Sadanand Dhume notes: In an ideal world, they would have the option of
backing a candidate supported equally by Hindus and Muslims to perform these tasks. In the real world,
they appear to have decided that the best man for the job is Mr. Modi. This is why, a little more than two
weeks from now, he will likely be sworn in as India's 14th prime minister.

Also see Dhume's analysis of Modi and Indias Muslim minority in the AEIdeas blog.

Middle East
Heavy fighting between rival Islamic rebel groups in eastern Syria killed 62 fighters and forced tens of
thousands to flee their homes, activists said Sunday. Meanwhile, talks continued over allowing rebels to
leave the besieged Old City of Homs.

Earlier this week, Secretary of State J ohn Kerry predicted that failure to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict through a two-state solution would leave Israel an apartheid-like state. Danielle Pletka argues that
Kerrys statement is not simply wrong but also discredits the United States as an honest broker in the
peace process and discourages the Arab world from trusting Washington. To read her full response, click
here.

On May 13, negotiations with Iran over a nuclear deal will continue. But to what end? Matthew McInnis
explains: IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali J afari who initially ardently opposed negotiations
has urged the negotiations team to exploit the ambiguities of the J oint Plan of Action to ensure an
agreement that reinforces the Islamic Republics national interestsIf the nuclear negotiations go as well as
expected this month, the Supreme Leader will have renewed confidence both in President Rouhani and in
the cohesiveness of his regime.

WATCH: John Yoo discusses US interventionism and religious extremism as a component of his new book,
Point of Attack: Preventative War, International Law, and Global Welfare, on Fox News' " Fox and
Friends." On Fox News' " The Kell y File," Marc Thiessen helps shed light on recent developments in the
Benghazi investigation.

Defense
In a wide-ranging speech, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel warned NATO members that they would be
judged harshly if they did not up defense spending. But Hagels own standing on the matter is far from
clear as the United States has slashed defense dramatically in recent years.

As the crisis in Ukraine progresses, US forces and regional allies are concerned about Americas
diminishing presence in Europe and are looking to revisit Americas broader military strategy. Air Force
General Philip Breedlove, NATOs supreme allied commander in Europe, and the Pentagons European
Command have repeatedly attempted to stall cuts to forces and continue to oppose the current strategy of
rotating forces from base to base.

In a US News & World Report article, Mackenzie Eaglen writes, There is an important if unspoken
difference between forces with an expiration date and permanently forward-stationed troops when it comes
to US policy and the intent to signal, assure, deter or influence. She continues, Declining US military power
in Europe has given way to decreased American diplomatic influence in continental affairs. Since forward-
deployed military forces play a critical role in deterrence and other desirable outcomes, reversing course
should be an easy and obvious choice for Washington.

At home, the US government is taking an unbalanced approach to spending and prioritizing its forces. In the
Air Force, the civilian workforce of 1,400 nearly matches the Air Force National Guard and reserves
combined. This only underscores the administrations failure to follow best practices on personnel. Eaglen
explains that Despite guidance that requires that missions be accomplished with the least cost, incomplete
personnel data means that DoD does not currently employ the right mix of military, civilian and contractor
workforces."
Throughout the course of US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, the possibility of reforming the US
acquisition system seemed farfetched at best. But if America continues to remain committed to global
engagement, the notion of reform is something that, as Bill Greenwalt writes, requires a focus on
maximizing benefits from the legacy system while concurrently creating a process capable of building a
brand new acquisition system. He concludes that we are approaching a TINA moment in defense
acquisition, and I am not referring to the Truth in Negotiations Act. Think of Margaret Thatchers There is No
Alternative context. The time for real acquisition reform is now.

Also see Michael Auslins Wall Street J ournal articl e on the possible discontinuation of the U-2 Dragon
Lady reconnaissance aircraft. Auslin argues, one day the U-2 will no longer be able to do its mission better
than remotely piloted drones. But that day is not here yet, and it is more cost effective and operationally wise
to use the best airplane for the job.

AEI on Campus

As part of AEI's on-campus leadership program, AEI foreign and defense policy scholars are talking to
hundreds of students every semester. If you know any exceptional student leaders, connect them to
Scott.Fyall @aei.org, and we'll tell them more about AEI on Campus Executive Council positions.
Executive Council members travel to DC for leadership conferences, network with business leaders and
scholars, and host influential thinkers on campus. Learn more here! The priority application deadline for
2014-15 is J une 8, 2014.

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