Factsheet

Issue5
October2013
EarthSystemModelling

AMAZALERTisusingsomeoftheworldsmostcomplexmodelstounderstandhowclimatechangemaytakeplace
inAmazonia.ThesemodelsarebeingusedtoimprovesciencunderstandingoftheEarthsystemand,crucially,
howitmayrespondtohumanacvity.
ATAGLANCE
Earth system models
represent mathemacal-
ly the processes that de-
scribe Earth system com-
ponents and the interac-
onsbetweenthem.
Feedbacks in the Earth
system have the poten-
al to have signicant
impacts on global and
regionalclimatechange.
Earth system models
produce projecons of
futureclimates.Theyalso
allow the assessment of
the role of feedbacks in
the changes that are
seen.
Earth system models are
always being developed,
and observaons play a
centralroleinthiswork.
ThisfactsheetdescribeswhatEarthsystemmodelsareandthebenetstheybring
indevelopingunderstandingoftheEarthsystemandhowitrespondstochanges.

WhatisanEarthsystemmodel?
Therstclimatemodelssimulatedtheatmospherealone.Theywerecomposedof
mathemacal equaons based on established physical laws that described, for
example, changes in pressure, the movement of air, temperature and the for-
maonofrain.Inotherwords:theweatherandclimate.Overtheyears,asscien-
cunderstandinghasadvancedalongsidetechnologicaldevelopmentsincompu-
ng capability, these models have become more complex. More processes and
components of the Earth system have been incorporated, and hence some are
nowtermedEarthsystemmodels.
These represent mathemacally the
physical, chemical and biological
processes that describe the atmos-
phere, the oceans, the cryosphere
and the biosphere, and the interac-
onsbetweenthem.

Figure 1. Earth system models simulate

processes that describe the components
oftheEarthsystem,andtheinteracons
betweenthem
DreaminginthedeepSouth

Figure 2 (right): An example

ofaposivefeedbackinthe
climatecarbon cycle. This
cycle interacts with others
withintheEarthsystem.

BenetsofEarthsystemmodels
Itisnotjustthephysicalelementssuchasclouds,oceansandicethataectthe
climate. To give some examples, vegetaon, soils and plankton can modify at-
mosphericconcentraonsofcarbondioxide(CO
2
)throughabsorbingorreleasing
carbon. Aerosol parcles can absorb or reect sunlight, which has a heang or
cooling eect, respecvely, on the atmosphere. Chemical reacons determine
the concentraons of some aerosols and non-CO
2
greenhouse gases (e.g. me-
thane,ozone).Becausealloftheseprocessesareoccurringwithinthesamemod-
el, it provides an internally consistent way to assess the impacts of climate
changeonouratmosphere,ecosystemsandoceans.
Furthermore, many of the Earth system components that aect climate are
themselves aected by climate. Feedbacks between the dierent Earth system
components may act to amplify (posive feedback) or dampen (negave feed-
back)theoriginaleects.Forexample,warmertemperaturesacceleratesoilde-
composionandreleaseofCO
2
.TheresulngincreaseinCO
2
intheatmosphere
leadstofurtherwarming.Thisisaposiveclimate-carboncyclefeedback(Fig.2).
However,itshouldalsobenotedthatdierentcyclesinteractandmayhaveop-
posingeectsonthesamequanty.Forexample,underhigheratmosphericCO
2

concentraonsvegetaontakesupmoreCO
2
,whichhasaposiveeectonveg-
etaonproducvityandanegavefeedbackonatmosphericCO
2
levels.

The combined eects of Earth system feedbacks have the potenal to have sig-
nicantimpactsonglobalandregionalclimatechange.

UsingEarthsystemmodels
Models represent past, current or future climate by simulang the underlying
climate system together with external forcing factors such as solar energy,
greenhouse gas concentraons and even aerosols ejected into the atmosphere
fromvolcanoes.Byrunningthemodelaccordingtotheforcingofthe20thcentu-
ry, for example, it generates the climate of the past hundred years. Driving the
models with scenarios of dierent combinaons of forcing factors, including
changing greenhouse gas concentraons and land use, produce projecons of
climate to be made into the future. Earth system models also allow the assess-
mentoftheroleofinteraconsandfeedbacksinthechangesthatareseen.
NASAGoddardPhotoandVideo

Thereisconnuingeorttoincludefurtherimportantprocessesinthemodelsas
well as improving the representaon of exisng ones, some of which are not as
well understood as others. Observaons are essenal in helping us developing
knowledgeoftheseprocessesandhowtheyareincorporatedintothemodels.It
shouldbenoted,however,thatobservaonalrecordsarenotascompleteasthe
ideal,eitherinspaceatlocaonsrightacrosstheworldorinmesomerec-
ords go back longer than others, or are intermient. This is parcularly true for
some of the Earth system processes that are much more sparsely measured
comparedtorelavelywell-observedquanessuchasrainfallandsurfacetem-
perature. Observaons are central to improvements in modelling, and it is an
ongoingsciencchallengetomaintain,increaseandbringintouseobservaon-
aldata.
One outcome of the scienc uncertaines that exist in our knowledge of the
processesthemselvesandintheirrepresentaonisthatthereisagreaterspread
intheresultsgivenbythemodelsthanwhentheyareomied.Butbyincluding
these new processes we are beginning to beer characterize our understanding
ofhowclimatechangemayevolveinaninteracngEarthsystem.

References

Collins,W.J.etal.2011:DevelopmentandevaluaonofanEarthSystemmodel
HadGEM2,Geosci.ModelDev.,4,10511075,doi:10.5194/gmd410512011.

Jones,C.D.etal.2011:TheHadGEM2ESimplementaonofCMIP5centennialsimulaons,
Geosci.ModelDev.,4,543570,doi:10.5194/gmd45432011.

TheHadGEM2DevelopmentTeam2011:TheHadGEM2familyofMetOceUniedModel
climateconguraons,Geosci.ModelDev.,4,723757,doi:10.5194/gmd47232011.

Author

GillianKay
andallAMAZALERT
WorkPackage3partners
E-mail:
gillian.kay@metoce.gov.uk

ProjectCoordinator
AMAZALERT

Dr.BartKruijt
Alterra,WageningenUR,Wage-
ningen,theNetherlands
Bart.Kruijt@wur.nl
AMAZALERT(20112014)iscofundedby