May 13, 2014

To: Interested Parties

From:
Re:
Ben Tulchin, Ben Krompak, and Kiel Brunner; Tulchin Research
Survey Results in California Congressional District 31


This past week, Tulchin Research conducted a tracking survey among 400 likely June
2014 primary voters in Californias 31
st
Congressional district. Our poll finds an
increasingly challenging dynamic for Democrats in this open primary election, with four
Democratic candidates continuing to split the Democratic vote and three of those
candidates now attracting roughly equal support. This dynamic leaves the door open for
a scenario in which two Republicans clear the primary and Democrats are shut out of the
general election, as they were in 2012. Here we present our research findings.

Evolution of the Race

Our poll finds the percentage of voters who are undecided has dropped from 30 percent
in our previous poll (conducted April 14-17 among 600 likely June 2014 primary voters)
to 18 percent now, indicating that voters are beginning to make up their minds in this
race. While most of the candidates have attracted a share of those previously undecided
voters, Democrat Joe Baca has seen the most noteworthy gains. Bacas support grew 5
points among all voters (from 8% in April to 13% now) and he increased his support
among Democrats by 11 points (from 12% in April to 23% now). While Baca appears to
be at or near his support ceiling and is extraordinarily unlikely to clear the primary, this
development has further diluted the Democratic vote and increases the odds that two
Republican candidates could finish first and second in June, denying Democrats an
opportunity to compete in November.

CA-31 June 2014 Primary

ALL LIKELY PRIMARY
VOTERS
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY VOTERS
Apr 14 -17 May 7-8 Shift Apr 14 - 17 May 7 - 8 Shift
Pete Aguilar (D)
15% 15% +0 27% 24% -3
Eloise Gomez Reyes (D)
12% 13% +1 22% 21% -1
Danny Tillman (D)
6% 6% +0 9% 11% +2
Joe Baca (D)
8% 13% +5 12% 23% +11
Paul Chabot (R)
21% 23% +2 4% 4% +0
Lesli Gooch (R)
4% 6% +2 1% 1% +0
Ryan Downing (R)
4% 7% +3 1% 1% +0
Undecided
30% 18% -12 24% 15% -9

Absent one of the leading Democrats experiencing a drop in support resulting from a
negative attack, the November shutout scenario will continue to remain a real possibility,
particularly as long-time Congressional aide and lobbyist Lesli Gooch begins spending
Polling Memo

down her campaign war chest and communicating with voters. Research has
consistently found that Joe Baca is by far the candidate most vulnerable to negative
attack among this primary field.


Survey Methodology:

From May 7-8, 2014, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely
June 2014 primary voters in Californias 31
st
Congressional District, using live
professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones and conducting
interviews in both English and Spanish. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.9
percentage points.

From April 14-17, 2014, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 600
likely June 2014 primary voters in Californias 31
st
Congressional District, using live
professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones and conducting
interviews in both English and Spanish. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.99
percentage points.