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New Jersey / Virginia Post-

Election Surveys

Republican National
Committee
1
Methodology

-- RNC commissioned two post-election


surveys, one in NJ and one in VA.
-- VA survey by OnMessage Inc.
-- NJ survey by McLaughlin and Associates.
-- Each survey n=800 who voted.
-- Field dates – Nov. 3rd and 4th.
-- Margin of error for each survey is +/- 3.4%.

2
Republicans Won The
Turnout Battle

Turnout Comparison
2008 vs. 2009

3
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Party Turnout

50
44 43
45
39 41
40
35 33
35 31
30 28 28 27 25 Dem
25 Ind

20 18 Rep

15
10
5
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09

4
Now, thinking back over the campaign for Governor, which
candidate’s campaign would you say you saw more television
advertisements in support of?

4%
8%

McDonnell

30% VA 47%
Deeds
Equal Amounts
None
DK/R
12%

5
Now, thinking back over the campaign for Governor, which
candidate’s campaign would you say you received more mail
from?

69% McDonnell
31% Deeds
6%
17%
41% McDonnell

VA Deeds
Equal Amounts
Did Not Receive
DK/R
25%
11%

6
Now, thinking back over the campaign for Governor, which
candidate’s campaign would you say you received more phone
calls from?

76% McDonnell
24% Deeds
6%
18% McDonnell
Deeds
43%
VA Equal Amounts
Did Not Receive
DK/R
18%

16%

7
Over the last month, would you say more campaign volunteers
and workers have come to your door in support of…?

71% McDonnell
29% Deeds
6% 9%
6%
3% McDonnell
Deeds

VA Equal Amounts
No Volunteers
DK/R

77%

8
Republicans Carried Three
Crucial Voter Groups

!Suburbs
!Independents
!Seniors
9
Ballot By Suburbs
Comparison
2008/2009

10
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Ballot – Suburbs
New Jersey Virginia
100
90
80
70
58 58
60
51 48 51
50 42 44 42
Rep
Dem
Ind
40
30
20
10 5
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09

11
Ballot By Independents
Comparison
2008/2009

12
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Ballot – Independents
New Jersey Virginia
100
90
80
70
61
47 51 51
60
50
48 49 Rep

40 37 39 Dem
Ind

30
20 13
10
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09

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Ballot By Seniors
Comparison
2008/2009

14
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Ballot: Seniors – 65+
New Jersey Virginia
100
90
80
70 66
60 53 55 53
50 47 46 Rep

40
39 34
Dem

30
20
10
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09

15
President Obama’s Policies
Are Increasingly Unpopular

16
Now, thinking about the policies that Strongly Approve DK/Refused
Somewhat Approve
President Obama is promoting: Would Somewhat Disapprove
you say that you approve or disapprove Strongly Disapprove

of those policies?

Policies Approval - NJ Policies Approval - VA


Approve

53 +12 -12
70 70

50 50

42
25
30 30

27
Do you…

28
15
10 10

6 5
-10
13 -10

14
28
Disapprove

40
-30 -30

-50

41 -50

54
17
Now, thinking about Barack Obama’s policies as
Health Care
President, did his policies make you more or less likely to vote
More Favorable | Obamain/ the
for (Christie/McDonnell) Dem. Planfor Governor?
election
Less Likely Vote For… More Likely

New Jersey

8 5 3 19 35 54
Asked Of
Christie/
McDonnell
Virginia Voters

6 42 15 52 67

Much Less Somewhat Less Somewhat More Much More

18
The Voters Believe The
Democratic View Of How To
Create Jobs Is Wrong

19
Which of the following do you believe is the best way to grow
the economy and create jobs?

Control spending and cut taxes Increase federal and state


for businesses and individuals OR government spending for
to create jobs. programs to create more jobs.
Control Spending
Increase Spending

4%7%
Both
Neither 4%6%
6% 6%
DK/R

22%
NJ 19% VA
61%
64%

20
Voters Want Nothing To Do
With The Democrats
“Cap & Trade” Scheme

21
Would you favor or oppose President Obama’s program to
cap carbon emissions pollution if you knew that it would
result in greatly increased energy costs for every American by
an average of $1,800 per year through higher utility and
electric bills?
100
90 New Jersey Virginia

80
70
61
60 53
50 Favor
Oppose
40
31
30 23
20
10
0
22
With unemployment at an all time high, experts say that the
current cap and trade legislation will send thousands of jobs
overseas and with the current economic situation, now is the
wrong time to raise energy prices. Knowing this, would it
make you more or less likely to support cap and trade?
100
New Jersey Virginia
90
80
70
59 63
60
50 More Likely
Less Likely
40
30
20
18 14
10
0
23
The Obama-Pelosi Health
Care Experiment Is Only
Popular In Washington, D.C.

24
Very Fav No Opinion
Image Tests Somewhat Fav
Somewhat Unfav
Never Heard Of

Very Unfav

President Obama’s Health Care President Obama’s Health Care


Reform - NJ Reform - VA
Favorable

-2 -19
70 70

50
42 50

36
21
Do you…

20
30 30

10

21 13
10

16
1 8
-10 12 -10
10
Unfavorable

-30

32 -30

45

44
-50 -50

55
25
Do you favor or oppose the current health care legislation
being pushed by President Obama and the Democrats in
Congress?

New Jersey Virginia


100
90
80
70
60 57
50 46 43 Favor

40 35 Oppose

30
20
10
0
26
Thinking about the health care reform proposals currently
being discussed in Washington, which of the following
statements comes closest to your opinion?
Our health care system is badly
My health care is too important to broken and in need of reform now
risk on one gigantic piece of without delay. Congress has talked
legislation rushed through OR
about health care reforms for
Congress. I would rather see decades and has done nothing. I’m
Congress take a more thoughtful concerned that those who want to
step by step approach, focusing on slow down reform really don’t want
common sense reforms. health care reform at all.

4%4% 6%
5% 3%
2% Step By Step

Broken/Reform Now

NJ
Both
49% VA
35% 54% Neither
37% DK/R

27
If your Senator or Congressman voted to pass President
Obama and Nancy Pelosi’s health care legislation would that
make you more or less likely to vote for them in next year’s
election?
100 New Jersey Virginia
90
80
70
60 52
50 More Likely

35 40 Less Likely
40
30
30
20
10
0
28
Five Elements Of
Obama-Pelosi Care
That Voters Reject

29
The current health care proposal will cut $500 billion from
Medicare.

100 New Jersey Virginia


90
80
70
60 61
60
50 More Likely
Less Likely
40
30
20 15
20
10
0
30
The current health care proposal will increase insurance
premiums for individuals and families.

New Jersey Virginia


100
90
80
70 63 66
60
50 More Likely
Less Likely
40
30
20
18 15
10
0
31
The current health care proposal will result in higher taxes on
individuals and small businesses that create jobs.

New Jersey Virginia


100
90
80
70 63 63
60
50 More Likely
Less Likely
40
30
21 17
20
10
0
32
The current health care proposal will result in rationing of
health care and will harm the quality of the care you receive.

New Jersey Virginia


100
90
80
70 65 65
60
50 More Likely
Less Likely
40
30
20 16 14
10
0
33
The current health care proposal is another trillion dollar
program that will lead to increased national debt and a larger
deficit.

New Jersey Virginia


100
90
80
70
61 62
60
50 More Likely
Less Likely
40
30
20 18
20
10
0
34
Voters Want Action On
Jobs – Not A Health Care
Experiment

35
From the following two statements which do you think should
come first and is the more urgent need?

I think President Obama


and Congress should focus I think President Obama
on dealing with getting our and Congress should focus
OR
economy back on track and on dealing with health care
creating jobs and deal with reform and getting it
health care and other issues passed as soon as possible
at a later time.
Economy
Health Care Reform
3%4% Both 4%6%
10% Neither
7%
DK/R

NJ 23%
VA
24% 59% 61%

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