Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Election Surveys
Republican National
Committee
1
Methodology
2
Republicans Won The
Turnout Battle
Turnout Comparison
2008 vs. 2009
3
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Party Turnout
50
44 43
45
39 41
40
35 33
35 31
30 28 28 27 25 Dem
25 Ind
20 18 Rep
15
10
5
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09
4
Now, thinking back over the campaign for Governor, which
candidate’s campaign would you say you saw more television
advertisements in support of?
4%
8%
McDonnell
30% VA 47%
Deeds
Equal Amounts
None
DK/R
12%
5
Now, thinking back over the campaign for Governor, which
candidate’s campaign would you say you received more mail
from?
69% McDonnell
31% Deeds
6%
17%
41% McDonnell
VA Deeds
Equal Amounts
Did Not Receive
DK/R
25%
11%
6
Now, thinking back over the campaign for Governor, which
candidate’s campaign would you say you received more phone
calls from?
76% McDonnell
24% Deeds
6%
18% McDonnell
Deeds
43%
VA Equal Amounts
Did Not Receive
DK/R
18%
16%
7
Over the last month, would you say more campaign volunteers
and workers have come to your door in support of…?
71% McDonnell
29% Deeds
6% 9%
6%
3% McDonnell
Deeds
VA Equal Amounts
No Volunteers
DK/R
77%
8
Republicans Carried Three
Crucial Voter Groups
!Suburbs
!Independents
!Seniors
9
Ballot By Suburbs
Comparison
2008/2009
10
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Ballot – Suburbs
New Jersey Virginia
100
90
80
70
58 58
60
51 48 51
50 42 44 42
Rep
Dem
Ind
40
30
20
10 5
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09
11
Ballot By Independents
Comparison
2008/2009
12
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Ballot – Independents
New Jersey Virginia
100
90
80
70
61
47 51 51
60
50
48 49 Rep
40 37 39 Dem
Ind
30
20 13
10
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09
13
Ballot By Seniors
Comparison
2008/2009
14
2008 Statewide Exit Polls / 2009 Post Elect
Ballot: Seniors – 65+
New Jersey Virginia
100
90
80
70 66
60 53 55 53
50 47 46 Rep
40
39 34
Dem
30
20
10
0
NJ - 08 NJ - 09 VA - 08 VA - 09
15
President Obama’s Policies
Are Increasingly Unpopular
16
Now, thinking about the policies that Strongly Approve DK/Refused
Somewhat Approve
President Obama is promoting: Would Somewhat Disapprove
you say that you approve or disapprove Strongly Disapprove
of those policies?
53 +12 -12
70 70
50 50
42
25
30 30
27
Do you…
28
15
10 10
6 5
-10
13 -10
14
28
Disapprove
40
-30 -30
-50
41 -50
54
17
Now, thinking about Barack Obama’s policies as
Health Care
President, did his policies make you more or less likely to vote
More Favorable | Obamain/ the
for (Christie/McDonnell) Dem. Planfor Governor?
election
Less Likely Vote For… More Likely
New Jersey
8 5 3 19 35 54
Asked Of
Christie/
McDonnell
Virginia Voters
6 42 15 52 67
18
The Voters Believe The
Democratic View Of How To
Create Jobs Is Wrong
19
Which of the following do you believe is the best way to grow
the economy and create jobs?
4%7%
Both
Neither 4%6%
6% 6%
DK/R
22%
NJ 19% VA
61%
64%
20
Voters Want Nothing To Do
With The Democrats
“Cap & Trade” Scheme
21
Would you favor or oppose President Obama’s program to
cap carbon emissions pollution if you knew that it would
result in greatly increased energy costs for every American by
an average of $1,800 per year through higher utility and
electric bills?
100
90 New Jersey Virginia
80
70
61
60 53
50 Favor
Oppose
40
31
30 23
20
10
0
22
With unemployment at an all time high, experts say that the
current cap and trade legislation will send thousands of jobs
overseas and with the current economic situation, now is the
wrong time to raise energy prices. Knowing this, would it
make you more or less likely to support cap and trade?
100
New Jersey Virginia
90
80
70
59 63
60
50 More Likely
Less Likely
40
30
20
18 14
10
0
23
The Obama-Pelosi Health
Care Experiment Is Only
Popular In Washington, D.C.
24
Very Fav No Opinion
Image Tests Somewhat Fav
Somewhat Unfav
Never Heard Of
Very Unfav
-2 -19
70 70
50
42 50
36
21
Do you…
20
30 30
10
21 13
10
16
1 8
-10 12 -10
10
Unfavorable
-30
32 -30
45
44
-50 -50
55
25
Do you favor or oppose the current health care legislation
being pushed by President Obama and the Democrats in
Congress?
40 35 Oppose
30
20
10
0
26
Thinking about the health care reform proposals currently
being discussed in Washington, which of the following
statements comes closest to your opinion?
Our health care system is badly
My health care is too important to broken and in need of reform now
risk on one gigantic piece of without delay. Congress has talked
legislation rushed through OR
about health care reforms for
Congress. I would rather see decades and has done nothing. I’m
Congress take a more thoughtful concerned that those who want to
step by step approach, focusing on slow down reform really don’t want
common sense reforms. health care reform at all.
4%4% 6%
5% 3%
2% Step By Step
Broken/Reform Now
NJ
Both
49% VA
35% 54% Neither
37% DK/R
27
If your Senator or Congressman voted to pass President
Obama and Nancy Pelosi’s health care legislation would that
make you more or less likely to vote for them in next year’s
election?
100 New Jersey Virginia
90
80
70
60 52
50 More Likely
35 40 Less Likely
40
30
30
20
10
0
28
Five Elements Of
Obama-Pelosi Care
That Voters Reject
29
The current health care proposal will cut $500 billion from
Medicare.
35
From the following two statements which do you think should
come first and is the more urgent need?
NJ 23%
VA
24% 59% 61%
36