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***ECONOMIC REFORM ADV***

ECONOMIC REFORM ADV - AFF



Economic Reform Adv 1AC
Economic reform is slowly happening in Cuba - removing the embargo is necessary to jump start
broader economic liberalization
Cuba Study Group 2013 Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February
http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
The codification of the U.S. embargo against Cuba has failed to accomplish its objectives, as stated in Helms-Burton, of
causing regime change and restoring democracy in Cuba. Continuing to ignore this obvious truth is not only
counterproductive to the interests of the United States, but also increasingly damaging to Cuban civil society, including
the more than 400,000 Cubans now working as licensed private entrepreneurs, because it places the burden of sanctions squarely on their
shoulders to bear.
At a time when Cuba seems headed toward a path of change and reforms, albeit slower than desired, and a real debate
seems to be emerging within Cubas elite regarding its future, the inflexibility of U.S. policy has the ironic effect of hurting and
delaying the very changes it seeks to produce by severely limiting Cubas ability to implement major economic
reforms and strengthening the hand of the reactionaries, rather than the reformers, within the Cuban government.
Moreover, Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions in Torricelli and TSRA deny the United States the flexibility to address
dynamic conditions in Cuba in a strategic and proactive way. They effectively tie the Presidents hands in
responding to developments on the Island, placing the impetus for taking advantage of the processes of change in
Cuba in hands of hard-liners among Cubas ruling elites, whose interests are best served by the perpetuation of the
embargo.
The Cuba Study Group is publishing this whitepaper to acknowledge that a Cuba policy fundamentally based on blanket unilateral
sanctions and isolation has been grossly ineffective for more than half a century; it disproportionately hurts the Cuban
people and is counterproductive to the creation of an enabling transitional environment in Cuba where civil society
can prosper and bring about the desired social, political and economic changes for which we long.
Now is key social factors have set the stage for economic liberalization removing the embargo is
key to necessary comprehensive reform
Cuba Study Group 2013 Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February
http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
The past four years have seen remarkable shifts in attitudes on both sides of the Florida Straits away from isolation
and toward direct engagement and empowerment of the Cuban people. In Cuba, an emerging class of entrepreneurs
and self-employed workers represents the best hope for a free and open society since the embargo was enacted. In the
United States, Cuban-Americans have become increasingly supportive of engagement with their counterparts in Cuba and are
traveling in record numbers to support their families and reconnect with their communities. The Cuban Diaspora represents an important asset in
both experience and resources to the millions of Cubans who are, for the first time, taking control over their economic destinies.
Socio-economic reforms in Cuba, from property and private business ownership to migratory reforms, have been slower and less
comprehensive than preferred; however, they represent a sea of change for those living in Cuba, and the opportunities
they present should be seized. Now more than ever, it is imperative that we remove external barriers to the growth
that is currently taking place in the Cuban private sector and remove obstacles that will facilitate and support its progress.
Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions deny us the flexibility to address any of these developments in a
proactive and fundamental way. The time has come for this senseless policy to end.
Investment independently reform
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
If the goal is to promote marketization and political liberalization in Cuba, economic sanctions and the travel prohibitions
fail to further that goal. If companies follow adequate programs of corporate social responsibility, American investment in Cuba
can provide leverage and support to the reform process. Good jobs in industries that treat Cuban workers with respect can do
more for them than any abstract political rhetoric about liberation. American, Canadian, Latin American, and European businesses
and travelers to Cuba would do more to further reform on the island through their operations, internet connections, attitudes and interactions with
Cubans, than speeches from Radio Marti or selective engagements with the governments opponents.
Economic liberalization is key to a stable transition to a marketized one party system
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
But this is not the appropriate model through which to understand a dynamic Cuban political system. The Cuban leadership under Raul Castro is
demonstrating a will to reform. Only the future will tell whether the Cuban Communist Party and its partner in ruling Cuba,
the Cuban Armed Forces (FAR) complex, can embrace the degree of adaptability necessary for a successful intergenerational
succession. Events in 2010 and 2011 indicate that even the most conservative of Cuban officials appear to be convinced the
PCC needs to show improvements in the nations economic performance and the willingness to adapt to a globalized
world in order for the party to regain legitimacy with the Cuban people.
American foreign policymakers must at least entertain the possibility that the announced reforms are not the end of the
regime, but the beginning of marketization and political liberalization within the context of one-party rule. It is equally
relevant to discuss what kinds of consequences these reforms, successful or not, will have for the United States, the political stability of Cuba,
and for the region. U.S. policymakers should consider whether an alternate set of actors or scenarios could realistically
carry out these changes more successfully than the current Cuban leadership.
Rather than hoping for the swift demise of Communist Party-rule in Cuba, it would be more productive for U.S.
officials to think creatively about new U.S. policies that anticipate and take advantage of the changes taking place,
which although short of full democratization, might very well be a step towards the goal of promoting a stable,
peaceful and gradual transition to a more open political and economic system in a democratic Cuba.
Cuba is fragile now failure to promote major reform instability
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
Most of the changes proposed by Raul Castro have been debated within Cuban politics debate for the last twenty years.
But the V Congress of the PCC in 1997 was a victory of conservative and bureaucratic forces opposed to the
reforms13. As result of the stagnation that followed, significant segments of the Cuban population questioned the
governments willingness to execute the most needed changes. After twenty years of government announcements
and delays; confidence in the leaderships commitment to real reform is shaky. In light of this history, part of the
population views the government as oblivious to the costs of excessive gradualism or simply as trying to buy time to
remain in power as long as possible, without a clear vision for the future or the will to take risks.
These three crises are embedded in a long revolutionary cycle that effects five generations of Cubans14 who grew up under post-revolutionary
rule. For a great number of Cubans on the island and in the Diasporas, the decisive experiences of their lives are not connected to Fidel Castros
triumph in 1959 but instead to the special period. These last twenty years of economic hardship and scarcity have diminished the Cuban
populations capacity for major political mobilization. They have also concluded a transition from the Cuban revolutions more radical phase to a
Thermidor15, in which the post-revolutionary elite doesnt behave as revolutionary anymore. For them, the business of revolution is now
business.
The convergence of these three crises makes the current situation in Cuba particularly fragile. While the government has
innumerable possibilities as to how it will bring change to Cuba, the one completely untenable choice would be to
maintain the status quo.
Failure of economic reforms civil war
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
Indeed, if Cubas economic reform fails and local revolts ensue, the most likely outcome would be more a civil war such as
that seen in Libya, with horrific acts of war, resistance and violations of human rights throughout the country.
Nationalists who are concerned about the risk of political instability and criticize the lack of a credible proposal by
most Cuban opposition groups should not be dismissed as opponents of democracy. The support for the political
opposition should not be a litmus test that determines whether Washington will engage in cooperative dialogue with
actors in Cuba.
Cuban instability results in Latin American instability, terrorism, democratic backsliding, and
distracts the US from critical hotspots including Africa, the Caucus, and North Korea
Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC
CRISIS? 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cubas problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In
addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants
of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of
order will create the conditions for instability and civil war . Whether Raul or another successor from within the current
government can hold power is debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current policies for an indefinite period,
which will only compound the Cuban situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility if the U.S.
maintains the wait and see approach. The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. In the midst of this
chaos, thousands will flee the island. During the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals; this time the
number could be several hundred thousand flee ing to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis. Equally important, by adhering to a
negative containment policy, the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba is along the axis of the
drug-trafficking flow into the U.S. from Columbia. The Castro government as a matter of policy does not support the drug trade. In fact, Cubas actions have
shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs 7.5 tons in
1995, 8.8 tons in 1999, and 13 tons in 2000.27 While there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of
drugs entering the U.S. may pass through Cuba, the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If
there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation
and accelerate considerably. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to
operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or
throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated . Such activity could
increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are
budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military
forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency . The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater
anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems. U.S. domestic political
support is also turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S. totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these
exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be
flawed, because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear softening in the Cuban-
American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an
opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations. (Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only
issue is what happens then? The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. The
administration, given the present state of world affairs, does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional
American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long
and protracted. These warnings were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and
economic resources. There is justifiable concern that Africa and the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity,
so these areas should be secure. North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore
China . What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally,
Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations
that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can the U.S.
afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past
40 years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism
Bryan 1 (Anthony T., Director of the Caribbean Program North/South Center, and Stephen E. Flynn, Senior
Fellow Council on Foreign Relations, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-
Caribbean Cooperation, 10-21, http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_
security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the linkages between drug trafficking and
terrorism are clear in countries like Colombia and Peru, and such connections have similar potential in the Caribbean. The
security of major industrial complexes in some Caribbean countries is vital. Petroleum refineries and major industrial estates
in Trinidad, which host more than 100 companies that produce the majority of the worlds methanol, ammonium sulphate, and 40 percent of
U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), are vulnerable targets. Unfortunately, as experience has shown in Africa, the Middle East,
and Latin America, terrorists are likely to strike at U.S. and European interests in Caribbean countries. Security issues
become even more critical when one considers the possible use of Caribbean countries by terrorists as bases from
which to attack the United States. An airliner hijacked after departure from an airport in the northern Caribbean or the Bahamas can be
flying over South Florida in less than an hour. Terrorists can sabotage or seize control of a cruise ship after the vessel leaves a Caribbean port.
Moreover, terrorists with false passports and visas issued in the Caribbean may be able to move easily through passport controls in Canada or the
United States. (To help counter this possibility, some countries have suspended "economic citizenship" programs to ensure that known terrorists
have not been inadvertently granted such citizenship.) Again, Caribbean countries are as vulnerable as anywhere else to the
clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
LNG tanker explosions cause catastrophic damage outweighs nuclear war
Lovin 1 (Amory B., Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovin, President National
Capitalism and Co-Founder Rocky Mountain Institute, Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security,
http://verdilivorno.it/doc_gnl/198204_Brittle_Power_intro_GNL_note.pdf)
About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about five minutes. 3 (It does
not matter how cold the water is; it will be at least two hundred twenty-eight Fahrenheit degrees hot- ter than the LNG, which it will therefore
cause to boil violently.) The result- ing gas, however, will be so cold that it will still be denser than air. It will therefore flow in a cloud or
plume along the surface until it reaches an ignition source. Such a plume might extend at least three miles downwind from a large tanker
spill within ten to twenty minutes. 4 It might ultimately reach much fartherperhaps six to twelve miles. 5 If not ignited, the gas is asphyxiating.
If ignited, it will burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of the 1937 Hindenberg disaster
but about a hundred times as big . Such a fireball would burn everything within it, and by its radiant heat would cause
third-degree burns and start fires a mile or two away. 6 An LNG fireball can blow through a city, creating a very large
number of ignitions and explosions across a wide area. No present or foreseeable equipment can put out a very large [LNG]... fire. 7 The
energy content of a single standard LNG tanker (one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a
megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.
Bioterrorism results in extinction
Sandberg et al 8 Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. PhD in computation
neuroscience, StockholmANDJason G. MathenyPhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns
Hopkins. special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of PittsburghANDMilan M.
irkovisenior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade. Assistant professor of physics at
the University of Novi Sad. (Anders, How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?, 9 September 2008,
http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction)
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones. Although great progress has been made in reducing
the number of nuclear weapons in the world, humanity is still threatened by the possibility of a global thermonuclear war and a resulting nuclear
winter. We may face even greater risks from emerging technologies. Advances in synthetic biology might make it
possible to engineer pathogens capable of extinction-level pandemics. The knowledge, equipment, and materials needed to
engineer pathogens are more accessible than those needed to build nuclear weapons. And unlike other weapons, pathogens are self-
replicating, allowing a small arsenal to become exponentially destructive. Pathogens have been implicated in the
extinctions of many wild species. Although most pandemics "fade out" by reducing the density of susceptible populations, pathogens
with wide host ranges in multiple species can reach even isolated individuals. The intentional or unintentional release of
engineered pathogens with high transmissibility, latency, and lethality might be capable of causing human extinction . While
such an event seems unlikely today, the likelihood may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's
Law.
AT: Roll Back DA
STATUS QUO REFORM IS INSUFFICIENT extend Cuba Study Group & Lopez Levy its too slow and
not comprehensive enough to assure a smooth the transition the plan is necessary to assure their
success
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
Most of these ideas about economic reform are in their initial stages. It is not yet clear just how mixed the new
economic model will be and whether Raul Castros government will be able to efficiently implement its adjustment
plan. There are obviously many impediments and flaws to the process, the most important of which is the lack of
funds to ameliorate transition costs and speed up the implementation of the new policies. Equally important is the fact that
in its preference for gradualism, and likewise horrified by the shock therapy approach to reform undertaken in Russia, Cubas leaders, seem to be
oblivious to the problems associated with excessive gradualism.
Embargo fails to promote democratic reform no risk of smooth transition now
Zimmerman Executive Editor Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo:
An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
As the only long-standing authoritarian regime in Latin America and the Caribbean, historically Cuba has been the focus of considerable
controversy within past presidential administrations and policy advisors. Cuba is the only country in the Western Hemisphere
against which the U.S. government has persistently imposed a full economic embargo in an attempt to encourage
democratization (Cato Institute, Center for Trade Policy Studies, 1). Since 1962, when the United States first imposed a trade embargo on
Cuba, sanctions have failed to accomplish the intended goal of promoting democracy. Instead, the Cuban government
led by Fidel Castro has used the embargo to divert attention away from its own policy failures and to garner
international sympathy. As a result of the trade embargo with Cuba, U.S. companies have been deprived of business
opportunities and domestic consumers have been punished; within Cuba, the embargo has hurt the poor and has exacerbated
malnutrition and health concerns.
While in recent years the U.S. has seen a revival of economic and political freedom in the rest of the Western Hemisphere, little has changed
as a result of its efforts to promote democracy in Cuba. Critics suggest that the U.S. policy toward Cuba has become
predictable, rhetorical and ineffectual, with the trade embargo serving as the centerpiece of the policy since the end of the Cold War.
With Fidel Castros resignation on February 19, 2008, after having ruled Cuba for almost five decades, and with the recent presidential election
of Barack Obama, the U.S. has been afforded a unique opportunity to reconsider its trade policies with Cuba. The 111th
Congress and President Obama, using his executive authority, should consider the implementation of a series of incremental modifications in the
trade and travel restrictions directed toward Cuba in an attempt to recast the relationship between the two countries.
PLAN SOLVES REFORM extend Cuba Study Group and Lopez-Levy investment and removal of
barriers to growth are key to the success of economic reforms
Lifting restrictions reform
Cuba Study Group 2013 Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February
http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
While it is difficult to prove a direct causal connection between economic reforms and an open society, modern history has taught us that it is
increasingly difficult for dictatorial governments to maintain political control the more prosperity their people
enjoy.xx Repealing Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions would allow the U.S. the ability to efficiently
promote and provide direct support to Cubas private sector. Such support would empower a greater plurality within
Cuban society, including government reformers, democracy advocates, Cuban entrepreneurs and society as a whole
by increasing their access to the resources and expertise of the worlds most prosperous private sector (and largest
Cuban diaspora), located a mere 90 miles from Cubas shores. In turn, this would enhance the relative power of Cuban
society to that of the state, while stripping the latter of its preferred scapegoat for its oppressive practices and
economic blunders. U.S. policy should also seek to incentivize the Cuban government to end state monopolies on
economic activities and allow greater private participation in the economy.
Market based reforms are key to democratization the aff must come first
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
The optimal antecedent to promoting democratization in the medium term is by supporting market-oriented
economic reform today. A peaceful and gradual transition to democracy in Cuba in the mid-term depends as much on economic reform as
on the emergence of an independent and globally-connected middle class. In the context of liberalization, improvements in human rights
should be measured through the effect of the sum of all policies in the majority of the population not exclusively on
those who challenge the political regime. The most salient human rights issue on the horizon will likely be the lack
of jobs for the million and a half workers who will be dismissed from the state sector before the end of 2011, not
prohibitions in the political sphere, such as the lack of freedom to organize a political party.
The United States must remove all barriers to trade, international assistance and investment that affect Cubas
emerging private sector. American and Cuban-American trade and investment in joint ventures with Cuban, nonstate owned entities must
be encouraged. President Obamas decision to remove limits on remittances sent to Cubans in the private sector and religious groups
is a positive step, but insufficient. A Cuban nationalist position rooted in economic growth, anti-corruption and
political stability that functions in partnership with American society is the best antidote to the visions of a Latin
America governed by totalitarian nationalists united in their antipathy for the United States.

Embargo Fails
Embargo fails lacks international support
Cuba Study Group 2013 Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February
http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
The opening sentence in Helms-Burton describes the legislation as an Act to seek international sanctions against the Castro government in
Cuba.xiii However, in the 17 years since its enactment, Helms-Burton has utterly failed to garner support from the
international community. No other country besides the U.S. currently imposes sanctions, economic or otherwise,
against Cuba. On the contrary, there is greater trade between Cuba and the rest of the world today than any time since
the Revolution took over in 1959. The absence of international cooperation undermines the central goal of an
embargo, which is the economic isolation of the targeted country. Clearly, economic sanctions that do not enjoy multilateral
support cannot by definition isolate the Cuban government. By contrast, when the U.S. Congress enacted the Comprehensive Anti-
Apartheid Act (CAAA) in 1986 to bring about the establishment of a nonracial democracy in South Africa, it served as part of multilateral
arms and trade embargo imposed by the United Nations.xiv More recently, the absence of extraterritorial provisions aimed at third countries in
U.S. policy toward Burma has also helped the United States secure multilateral support for sanctions against human rights violators in the
Burmese government.xv
Embargo is a failure it does not democratize or regime change
Griswold director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute 2009 Daniel The US Embargo of
Cuba Is a Failure Guardian Online http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-embargo-cuba-is-failure
The embargo has been a failure by every measure. It has not changed the course or nature of the Cuban government.
It has not liberated a single Cuban citizen. In fact, the embargo has made the Cuban people a bit more impoverished,
without making them one bit more free. At the same time, it has deprived Americans of their freedom to travel and has
cost US farmers and other producers billions of dollars of potential exports.
As a tool of US foreign policy, the embargo actually enhances the Castro governments standing by giving it a handy excuse
for the failures of the islands Caribbean-style socialism. Brothers Fidel and Raul can rail for hours about the suffering
the embargo inflicts on Cubans, even though the damage done by their communist policies has been far worse. The embargo has
failed to give us an ounce of extra leverage over what happens in Havana.
AT: Political Reforms
Market based reforms are key to democratization the aff must come first
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
The optimal antecedent to promoting democratization in the medium term is by supporting market-oriented
economic reform today. A peaceful and gradual transition to democracy in Cuba in the mid-term depends as much on economic reform as
on the emergence of an independent and globally-connected middle class. In the context of liberalization, improvements in human rights
should be measured through the effect of the sum of all policies in the majority of the population not exclusively on
those who challenge the political regime. The most salient human rights issue on the horizon will likely be the lack
of jobs for the million and a half workers who will be dismissed from the state sector before the end of 2011, not
prohibitions in the political sphere, such as the lack of freedom to organize a political party.
The United States must remove all barriers to trade, international assistance and investment that affect Cubas
emerging private sector. American and Cuban-American trade and investment in joint ventures with Cuban, nonstate owned entities must
be encouraged. President Obamas decision to remove limits on remittances sent to Cubans in the private sector and religious groups
is a positive step, but insufficient. A Cuban nationalist position rooted in economic growth, anti-corruption and
political stability that functions in partnership with American society is the best antidote to the visions of a Latin
America governed by totalitarian nationalists united in their antipathy for the United States.
Economic reform is key to political reform
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
By ignoring both the Cuban elites potential for governance and the current balance of power in which the
opposition is fragmented, dispersed and without a clearly-articulated governance plan, the U.S. is opting for the
most unstable and uncertain road to political transition. The immediate goals of U.S. policy towards Cuba must be to
promote market growth through economic reform and a stable process of political liberalization that welcomes the
growth of nonpartisan Cuban civil society organizations.


Yes Reform
Cuban is making concessions now is key to act
Sweig Director for Latin American Studies Council on Foreign Relations & McMahon Editor CFR.org 2013 Julia
& Robert Talking Cuba Interview with Julia Sweig Council on Foreign Relations 1/25
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/talking-cuba/p29879
The Cuban government's easing of travel restrictions this month marks another sign of its commitment to reforms and
changing sentiments in Havana, says Julia Sweig, CFR's director for Latin American Studies. Washington should seize on such
moves, she says, to initiate a new dialogue and begin solving the many problems impeding normalization of ties
between the countries--such as the case of detained U.S. citizen Alan Gross--and U.S. influence in the region. "There are geostrategic
reasons within the region, leaving apart the bilateral relationship, why it makes a great deal of sense for a strategy of
rapprochement with Cuba," Sweig says.
Cuba is experimenting with market reforms now needs support to be successful
Vanden Heuvel Editor and Publisher of The Nation 2013 Katrina The U.S. Should End the Cuban Embargo
Washington Post 6/02 http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-07-02/opinions/40316090_1_embargo-limited-
private-enterprise-odebrecht
Is there a greater example of utter folly than Americas superannuated policy toward Cuba? During more than 50 years corrupted by
covert actions, economic sabotage, travel bans and unending embargo, the United States managed to make Castro and Cuba an
international symbol of proud independence. Intent on isolating Cuba, Washington has succeeded only in isolating
itself in its own hemisphere. Intent on displacing Fidel Castro, the U.S. enmity only added to his nationalist credentials.
A recent visit reveals a Cuba that is already beginning a new, post-Castro era. That only highlights the inanity of the
continuing U.S. embargo, a cruel relic of a Cold War era that is long gone.
Cuba is beginning a new experiment, driven by necessity, of trying to build its own version of market socialism in one
country. Just as populist movements in the hemisphere looked to Castro and Cuba for inspiration, now Cuba is
learning from its allies as it cautiously seeks to open up its economy. A former minister of the economy spoke of how Cuba is
committed to fostering private coops and businesses, and is beginning a push to make more state enterprises make
their own way.
Raul is willing to reform
Zimmerman Executive Editor Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo:
An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
Despite the U.S. governments attempts to promote democracy in Cuba through economic sanctions, Fidel Castro,
the former leader of an underdeveloped nation of 11 million people, survived eight U.S. presidents and their attempts to oust him
from office. With the recent resignation of Fidel Castro and the installation of his brother, 76-year-old Raul Castro, as
president, many observers in the U.S. and Cuba relish the opportunity to develop stronger trade ties. Although he has not
signaled any major shift in Cubas economic system, in a speech given in July of 2007, Raul Castro acknowledged that structural
changes were necessary to increase efficiency and the production of goods in Cuba. Castro recognizes the inherent
limitations on a country that imports more than 80 percent of its food, leaves half of its arable land fallow, and
depends on Venezuela for 90 million barrels of oil per day (The Center for Democracy in the Americas). During the several years
he has acted as president, Raul Castro has pursued reform measures to make the government more efficient and invigorate
the Cuban economy. He has opened unused state land to private farmers, allowed private farmers to buy their own feed and fertilizer rather
than have them assigned by the state, permitted nationals to buy computers, cell phones and other appliances that previously were prohibited,
reformed the state wage system by removing salary limits, and allowed Cubans to gain title to state-owned homes (Weissert, 1). Most experts
believe that Raul Castro will not undertake dramatic economic reforms over the near term. Furthermore, due to the diversification of its economic
relationships with other countries, particularly China and Venezuela, Cuba is less reliant on the United States as a potential business partner.

Plan Reform
Lifting restrictions reform
Cuba Study Group 2013 Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February
http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
While it is difficult to prove a direct causal connection between economic reforms and an open society, modern history has taught us that it is
increasingly difficult for dictatorial governments to maintain political control the more prosperity their people
enjoy.xx Repealing Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions would allow the U.S. the ability to efficiently
promote and provide direct support to Cubas private sector. Such support would empower a greater plurality within
Cuban society, including government reformers, democracy advocates, Cuban entrepreneurs and society as a whole
by increasing their access to the resources and expertise of the worlds most prosperous private sector (and largest
Cuban diaspora), located a mere 90 miles from Cubas shores. In turn, this would enhance the relative power of Cuban
society to that of the state, while stripping the latter of its preferred scapegoat for its oppressive practices and
economic blunders. U.S. policy should also seek to incentivize the Cuban government to end state monopolies on
economic activities and allow greater private participation in the economy.
Economic Reform Democratization
Economic reform democratic change
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
Although the current phase of party debate is focused on the economic and social dimensions of reform, and while the party would like to
prevent the economic changes from producing pressure for a transition to multi-party democracy, it would be naive
to assume that these economic changes will not have profound political implications. It is clear that the economic reform
would foster political changes on which the opposition could capitalize. Workers in state sectors, particularly health and
education, would not remain passive if their salaries remain stagnant while others prosper. Economic reform and the growth of the private sector
would create opportunities for the legitimization of different types of wealth. Cubans would engage in conspicuous consumption, as some already
do, and inequities and corruption would necessarily create social tensions.

Plan Regional Cooperation
Signal of the plan cooperation with Cuba and Latin America more broadly
Zimmerman Executive Editor Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo:
An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress
http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
Relaxing U.S. trade restrictions will not result in an immediate thaw in relations with Cuba. The Cuban governments response may be slow, as Raul Castro will need
to factor in the changes in U.S. policy into the larger equation of Cuban recovery and economic reform. Moving from a policy of isolation to one of
investment and engagement will send a different message to Cuba and sets the stage for fruitful trade possibilities
and for normalizing relations between the two countries. In addition, the United States will be sending a signal to other
Latin America about its willingness to view the world in cooperative terms.
The current U.S. policy toward Cuba has been driven by history, without taking into account political and economic
interests of both countries. A policy based on sanctions and regime change is out of touch with the times, and is
inconsistent and flawed in its intent and application. The trade embargo imposed on Cuba reflects bad economics, bad business,
bad national security strategy, and bad global politics, and warrants a gradual revamping through revised regulations and,
ultimately, Congressional action.
Cuba is a litmus test for Latin American relations
Salon 1/02/2013 Can Kerry make friends with Cuba?
http://www.salon.com/2013/01/02/can_kerry_make_friends_with_cuba/
HAVANA, Cuba At the last Summit of the Americas, held in Colombia in April, Washingtons rivals in Latin America and
its political allies had the same piece of advice for better US diplomacy in the region: get over your Cuba fixation.
Now, with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) likely to be confirmed as the next secretary of state, the United States will have a top diplomat who has
been a frequent critic of Americas 50-year-old effort to force regime change in Havana.
In recent years, Kerry has been the Senates most prominent skeptic of US-funded pro-democracy efforts that give financial backing to dissident
groups in Cuba and beam anti-Castro programming to the island through radio and television programs based in Miami.
Kerry has also favored lifting curbs on US travel to the island, and opening up American tourism to the only country in the world the US
government restricts its own citizens from visiting.
For the rest of Latin America, where leaders say theyre eager for Washington to modernize its view of the region and
engage in new ways, Cuba remains a litmus test for the Obama presidency, according to Julia Sweig, director of Latin American
Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Economic Engagement Key to Shuttle Diplomacy
Economic engagement with Cuba is key to US shuttle diplomacy in Latin America
Sweig Director for Latin American Studies Council on Foreign Relations & McMahon Editor CFR.org 2013 Julia
& Robert Talking Cuba Interview with Julia Sweig Council on Foreign Relations 1/25
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/talking-cuba/p29879
Stripping this whole thing bare, as far as I can tell, there is really no foreign policy reason why the United States does not have a
normal, or least more natural, diplomatic and economic relationship with Cuba. In fact, there is a serious foreign
policy downside for not having that. In Latin America, we just saw the president earlier in 2012 attend the Summit
of the Americas in Cartagena, where there was a full court, unanimous message from the center, center-left, right,
center-right, and every single country in the region, including Washington's closest allies, telling Washington to get
it together with Havana, it is time to move forward.
Take Colombia, where President [Juan Manuel] Santos has a great relationship with Washington and with Havana, which is hosting talks between
his government and the FARC [rebel group] right now. Yet Washington keeps Havana on its terrorist list. Another moment we are living through
right now: President Hugo Chavez is very, very ill in Havana, and it seems to me that the shuttle diplomacy that is taking place
doesn't involve anybody from Washington. It involves Cubans, Venezuelans, Argentines, and Brazilians. The fact is that with
events in Venezuela, the United States is sitting on the margins of one of the biggest political moments in Latin
America, [which] runs through Havana. So there are geostrategic reasons within the region, leaving apart the
bilateral relationship, why it makes a great deal of sense for a strategy of rapprochement with Cuba.
Instability Unq
Cuba is in its worst economic crisis risks instability
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
Cuba is suffering its worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which eliminated one
third of all Cuban foreign trade. Although the country is not experiencing 1991-levels of economic deprivation, the decline in
Cubas GDP and the countrys isolation from the world economy renders this crisis more politically devastating than
that of 1991. In the early 1990s, the Cuban government relied on a reservoir of domestic goodwill generated by two
decades of economic growth, nationalist successes (including the victories in the African Wars) and a sustained expansion of
social services.
Today, the so-called Special Period constitutes more than 40 percent of Cubas post-revolutionary history. 11 The
Cuban population never expected the Special Period to go on so long. While Cuba did survive this period of extreme austerity,
younger generations of Cubans and portions of the governments political base fault the government for not having
implemented the types of structural reforms that have been adopted in other Communist-led nations such as the Peoples Republic of
China (PRC) and Vietnam.

Now Key
Cubas next transition will be the test Raul needs every chance hes got
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
The Cuban political system has not yet passed the most important of tests, replacing its original generation of leaders
with one of different formative experiences and vision, a successful inter-generational succession. This transition
also invokes questions about Cubas civil-military relations, since almost half of the Politburo members are generals
while the Communist Party, not the Armed Forces, is purported to be the countrys leading institution.
Now is key - social and political conditions in Cuba make reform likely
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
American policymakers should recognize the current situation as an ideal opportunity to negotiate an end to the
conflict, and a chance for wide-ranging and unfettered interaction with Cuban elites and the whole of Cuban society. It would
be a mistake to overestimate the vulnerability of the regime in the face of hostile policies or to personalize the
bilateral relations, avoiding negotiation with Raul, just because he is a Castro or a member of the historical generation.

AT: Status Quo Solves
Cubas economic reform is anything but certain there are major impediments now that the plan
would address
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
Most of these ideas about economic reform are in their initial stages. It is not yet clear just how mixed the new
economic model will be and whether Raul Castros government will be able to efficiently implement its adjustment
plan. There are obviously many impediments and flaws to the process, the most important of which is the lack of
funds to ameliorate transition costs and speed up the implementation of the new policies. Equally important is the fact that
in its preference for gradualism, and likewise horrified by the shock therapy approach to reform undertaken in Russia, Cubas leaders, seem to be
oblivious to the problems associated with excessive gradualism.

Instability Internal Link
Economic liberalization prevents violence and instability
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo
Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy New America
Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
The processes of marketization and political liberalization create an opportunity for the U.S. to initiate actions that
could lead to a proliferation of meaningful changes in Cuba. American support for both a democratic and an
economically stable Cuba are far from mutually exclusive. As the experience of other countries demonstrates, economic and
political reforms are intertwined. Democracy in the long run tends to produce stable governments but the process of
getting there is inherently destabilizing. Multiparty elections, for instance, in the absence of a stabilizing economic and social
environment tend to be destabilizing and often violent. A growing, market-oriented Cuban economy that enjoys substantial
participation from the Cuban Diaspora will be a major deterrent against violence. There are numerous examples,
world-wide, of the positive repercussions a transition to a market economy (the Cuban non-state sector would jump from 15%
of GDP today to 35% in 2015) has for the independence of civil society. The United States should support such a course in Cuba.
Economic liberalization key to solve civil war
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for
the U.S. State Department Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
Some will argue that focusing on market liberalization, while putting political reforms to the side, endangers Cuba's
long-term prospects for liberty and freedom. This is a valid concern. Nevertheless, in normative terms, market reforms will
vastly improve the lives of the Cuban people. The improved living conditions will give fringe groups with few
resources the ability to focus their own efforts on political reform from within. Improved economic conditions, if
used as a prerequisite to political reform, may also prevent a costly civil war during the inevitably painful transition.
Economic Reforms Snowball
Economic engagement snowballs
Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for
the U.S. State Department Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
As discussed above, any major reform in Cuba should first begin in the economic sector, as opposed to the political
sector. The Cuban government will likely accept foreign investment and introduce elements of private ownership
into its economy long before it releases its stranglehold on politics and holds free elections. Although the first stage of
economic reform has already begun, this stage can end at a moment's notice. Policy performance matters, and nothing breeds
success like success. Therefore, the U.S. should design a policy that helps ensure that these initial reforms are
successful.
Success of reform will breed more reform and an increased demand for a different economic environment. In this way,
an initial aperture's success will punch a hole in the Cuban government's ability to restrain economic [*235]
activity while maintaining credibility. While Cuba introduces these financial reforms, the U.S. should resist calls to
strengthen the economic sanctions, and should instead respond to any economic opening on the island with more bilateral trade
opportunities. By engaging Cuba economically, rather than isolating it politically, the U.S. could help link an entire generation of Cubans to the
capitalist world.

AT: Alan Gross
Acting despite Alan Grosss imprisonment is a solvency argument for us it makes the US look
credible in the region
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2013 Arturo Is
Obama Acting Pragmatically in the Alan Gross Case? The Havana Note
http://thehavananote.com/2013/01/obama_acting_pragmatically_alan_gross_case
The Obama Administrations cordial attitude towards the Cuban-American old-guard is a bizarre ideological commitment to those who did
everything possible to prevent his reelection. Hard-liners insistence on rejecting negotiations in the Gross case is a
transparent attempt to torpedo Obamas overall dialogue approach with our adversaries, even when it clearly serves
American national interests.
Whether American diplomats realize it or not, the Obama Administrations fixation on Cubas unilateral release of Gross is
making US policy looks amateurish. Even if Washington considers it unreasonable for Cuba to link Gross to the five Cuban agents
arrested in Florida, it makes no sense to put on hold constructive proposals for better relations in other areas. Obamas
legacy in the hemisphere will suffer if he wastes his second term flexibility to improve US-Cuba relations because
of unrealistic expectations. Incidentally, the probability of releasing Gross will improve as general relations do.

Terminal Impacts Africa
African conflicts cause great power war
Glick 7 (Caroline senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condis African holiday, p.
http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars, which rage continuously, can easily escalate
into big wars . Local conflicts have regional and global aspects. All of the conflicts in this tinderbox, which controls
shipping lanes from the Indian Ocean into the Red Sea, can potentially give rise to regional, and indeed global conflagrations
between competing regional actors and global powers. Located in and around the Horn of Africa are the states of Eritrea,
Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Kenya. Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a 30-year civil war, is a major
source of regional conflict. Eritrea has a nagging border dispute with Ethiopia which could easily ignite. The two countries fought a bloody
border war from 1998-2000 over control of the town of Badme. Although a UN mandated body determined in 2002 that the disputed town
belonged to Eritrea, Ethiopia has rejected the finding and so the conflict festers. Eritrea also fights a proxy war against Ethiopia in Somalia and in
Ethiopia's rebellious Ogaden region. In Somalia, Eritrea is the primary sponsor of the al-Qaida-linked Islamic Courts Union which took control of
Somalia in June, 2006. In November 2006, the ICU government declared jihad against Ethiopia and Kenya. Backed by the US, Ethiopia invaded
Somalia last December to restore the recognized Transitional Federal Government to power which the ICU had deposed. Although the Ethiopian
army successfully ousted the ICU from power in less than a week, backed by massive military and financial assistance from Eritrea, as well as
Egypt and Libya, the ICU has waged a brutal insurgency against the TFG and the Ethiopian military for the past year. The senior ICU leadership,
including Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and Sheikh Sharif Ahmed have received safe haven in Eritrea. In September, the exiled ICU leadership
held a nine-day conference in the Eritrean capital of Asmara where they formed the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia headed by Ahmed.
Eritrean President-for-life Isaias Afwerki declared his country's support for the insurgents stating, "The Eritrean people's support to the Somali
people is consistent and historical, as well as a legal and moral obligation." Although touted in the West as a moderate, Ahmed has openly
supported jihad and terrorism against Ethiopia, Kenya and the West. Aweys, for his part, is wanted by the FBI in connection with his role in the
bombing of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. Then there is Eritrea's support for the Ogaden separatists in Ethiopia. The Ogaden
rebels are Somali ethnics who live in the region bordering Somalia and Kenya. The rebellion is run by the Ogaden National Liberation Front
(ONLF) which uses terror and sabotage as its preferred methods of warfare. It targets not only Ethiopian forces and military installations, but
locals who wish to maintain their allegiance to Ethiopia or reach a negotiated resolution of the conflict. In their most sensationalist attack to date,
in April ONLF terror forces attacked a Chinese-run oil installation in April killing nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians. Ethiopia, for its part has
fought a brutal counter-insurgency to restore its control over the region. Human rights organizations have accused Ethiopia of massive human
rights abuses of civilians in Ogaden. Then there is Sudan. As Eric Reeves wrote in the Boston Globe on Saturday, "The brutal regime in
Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, has orchestrated genocidal counter-insurgency war in Darfur for five years, and is now poised for victory in its
ghastly assault on the region's African populations." The Islamist government of Omar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir is refusing to accept non-African
states as members of the hybrid UN-African Union peacekeeping mission to Darfur that is due to replace the undermanned and demoralized
African Union peacekeeping force whose mandate ends on December 31. Without its UN component of non-African states, the UN Security
Council mandated force will be unable to operate effectively. Khartoum's veto led Jean-Marie Guehenno, the UN undersecretary for
peacekeeping to warn last month that the entire peacekeeping mission may have to be aborted. And the Darfur region is not the only one at risk.
Due to Khartoum's refusal to carry out the terms of its 2005 peace treaty with the Southern Sudanese that ended Khartoum's 20-year war and
genocide against the region's Christian and animist population, the unsteady peace may be undone. Given Khartoum's apparent sprint to victory
over the international community regarding Darfur, there is little reason to doubt that once victory is secured, it will renew its attacks in the south.
The conflicts in the Horn of Africa have regional and global dimensions. Regionally, Egypt has played a central role in
sponsoring and fomenting conflicts. Egypt's meddling advances its interest of preventing the African nations from mounting a unified challenge
to Egypt's colonial legacy of extraordinary rights to the waters of the Nile River which flows through all countries of the region.
Terminal Impacts North Korea
North Korean conflict causes extinction
Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and
Director Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open:
Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil
us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading
to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium
range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul
(close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a
holocaust of unprecedented proportions . But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research
indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global
warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100
Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt,
that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced
would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westbergs view: That is not
global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000
years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents
would also followThe period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will
continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hungerTo make matters even worse, such amounts of
smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earths protective ozone.4 These, of course, are not the only
consequences. Reactors might also be targeted, causing further mayhem and downwind radiation effects, superimposed on a smoking, radiating
ruin left by nuclear next-use. Millions of refugees would flee the affected regions. The direct impacts, and the follow-on impacts on
the global economy via ecological and food insecurity, could make the present global financial crisis pale by
comparison. How the great powers, especially the nuclear weapons states respond to such a crisis, and in particular, whether nuclear
weapons are used in response to nuclear first-use, could make or break the global non proliferation and disarmament regimes.
There could be many unanticipated impacts on regional and global security relationships5, with subsequent nuclear
breakout and geopolitical turbulence , including possible loss-of-control over fissile material or warheads in the chaos of nuclear
war, and aftermath chain-reaction affects involving other potential proliferant states. The Korean nuclear proliferation issue
is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community.


LNG Impact - Ext
Caribbean terrorists target LNG tankers Probability is high due to American reliance on LNG
Kelshall 4 (Candyce Kelshall, 11/15/04 (Director of Bluewater Defence and Security Ltd, Radical Islam and LNG
in Trinidad and Tobago, http://www.iags.org/n1115045.htm)
Over the past several years, maritime attacks have become more violent, more frequent and clearly more organized. It is
believed that militant groups, particularly in South East Asia, are practicing hijacking ships for their possible use as
weapons. Of all types of vessels oil and chemical tankers are perhaps the most attractive targets for terrorists. These
vessels are manned by smaller crews and loaded with volatile substances that could potentially cause significant
damage. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) attacks against tankers are growing at an alarming rate. While
all eyes are placed on the area surrounding the Malacca Straits, the world oil bottleneck, and on the Indonesian coast
off Aceh, very little attention is placed on the U.S. underbelly of the Caribbean and the softer targets in the region
closest to America's back yard: Trinidad, Venezuela and the Bahamas. These Caribbean countries are among the
short list of natural gas producing countries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exporters.
Trinidad and Tobago alone account for 80% (1st quarter 2004) of all U.S. LNG imports, up from 68% in 2002. Therefore, any
incident involving an LNG tanker along the Caribbean routes could harm not only U.S. energy security but also the
economies of the Caribbean islands, affecting tourism and other industries decades. Existing well heads in the U.S. are being
depleted while demand for natural gas is expected to rise 2% a year. Imports from. LNG and Tanker Terrorism U.S. Department of Energy
figures paint a bleak picture for U.S. dependence on imported energy in the coming Canada, whose own energy demand is increasing, are
projected to pick up some of the burden. But Canada's gas demand is growing faster than expected, also due to the gas intensive process of
converting tar sands to crude oil, and thus its ability to export gas to the U.S. is being diminished. The U.S. will therefore be required to
import more of its gas in LNG form from Nigeria, Sao Tome, Trinidad, Venezuela and the Persian Gulf. Today 2%
of total gas usage in the U.S. is derived from LNG. By 2010 this figure is likely to grow to 10%. LNG terminals
and tankers present potential targets for terrorists. In the pre-9/11 world LNG tankers were considered among the safest ships at sea.
These tankers are still as safe as is possible for a vessel of this nature today. But this statement is only valid if one
pre-supposes that terrorists do not want an easily attainable w eapon of mass d estruction. The potential for
mass casualty maritime suicide terrorism has changed our perceptions of safety at sea especially when it comes to
lean crewed LNG tankers and other PCG (Petro/chemical/gas) and ships. With maritime terrorists currently combing the
world for ways to make their message reach as wide an audience as possible, LNG tankers could be their perfect
mass casualty weapon .
Terrorists have the intent and capability to attack and explode an LNG tanker
Clark 5 (Richard Clark, 2005 - an internationally recognized expert on security, including homeland security,
national security, cyber security, and counterterrorism, served in the United States government from 1973 to 2003,
with a specialization in the issues of intelligence and terrorism, A Security Risk Management Analysis
for ATTORNEY GENERAL PATRICK LYNCH RHODE ISLAND,
http://www.projo.com/extra/2005/lng/clarkereport.pdf)
NET ASSESSMENT: While there is no adequate way in which to determine the probability of a terrorist attack on the proposed
urban LNG facility and inland waterway transit routing, there is adequate grounds to judge that such an attack would be
consistent with terrorists demonstrated intent and capability . There is also a basis to judge that likely enhanced
security measures would not significantly reduce the risk . While there are some differences among experts about the conditions
needed to generate a catastrophic explosion and about the precise extent of the resulting damage, there is significant grounds to
conclude that a high risk exists of catastrophic damage from the types of attacks terrorists are capable of
mounting. Those damage levels would overwhelm regional trauma, burn, and emergency medical capabilities. The
LNG facilitys insurance is likely to be inadequate to fully compensate victims and to rebuild facilities.
Large risk of Caribbean LNG terrorism despite better law enforcement measures
Kelshall 4 (Candyce Kelshall, 11/15/04 (Director of Bluewater Defence and Security Ltd, Radical Islam and LNG
in Trinidad and Tobago, http://www.iags.org/n1115045.htm)
Under the leadership of Trinidad and Tobago's effective new and aggressive Minister for National Security Senator Martin Joseph, the law
enforcement units in Trinidad and Tobago are well trained, able and resourceful and it is to their credit that they
have held the forces of terrorism at bay thus far. The Joint Operations Command Center set up in the late 1990s has been
spearheading the fight against maritime crime, narcotic interdiction, and arms smuggling and the ethos of information sharing and joint
operations promoted by the Center was a radical new departure in intelligence gathering and operations in the region. New systems are currently
being put in place to ensure that intelligence is focused and operations driven. But all this may not be enough to prevent
terrorists from targeting LNG facilities in the serene Caribbean. Despite U.S. reliance on the country for its LNG
deliveries, the established presence of fundamentalists in the region and its increasing attractiveness as a target
the area has received little attention in the counterterrorism community. To address the danger the eyes of the world and the
international co-operation in intelligence sharing, training, and operational practice should now focus upon this undeclared
maritime hotspot which has fallen under the radar. If we are to ensure the safety of the gas deliveries to the U.S., the safety of the
transit zones and the islands located along the Caribbean shipping lanes then we have to ensure that targets are hardened around the world and not
just in the current piracy hotspots.
LNG infrastructure is uniquely vulnerable to terrorist attack
Parfomak 3 (Paul, Specialist in Science and Technology, Resources, Science, and Industry Division @ CRS,
"Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Infrastructure Security: Background and Issues for Congress,"
www.energy.ca.gov/lng/documents/CRS_RPT_LNG_INFRA_SECURITY.PDF)
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a hazardous fuel frequently shipped in massive tankers from overseas to U.S. ports. LNG
is also manufactured domestically and is often stored near population centers. Because LNG infrastructure is highly visible
and easily identified, it can be vulnerable to terrorist attack . Since September 11, 2001, the U.S. LNG industry and federal
agencies have put new measures in place to protect LNG infrastructure and respond to the possibility of terrorism. Nonetheless, public
concerns about LNG risks continue to raise questions about LNG security. While LNG has historically made up a small part of
U.S. natural gas supplies, rising gas prices and the possibility of domestic shortages are sharply increasing LNG demand.
Faced with this growth in demand and public concerns, Congress is examining the adequacy of federal LNG security initiatives.
Caribbean terrorists can attack LNG tankers anywhere in the world the ships go to the US, Japan and
Spain
Kelshall 4 (Candyce Kelshall, 11/15/04 (Director of Bluewater Defence and Security Ltd, Radical Islam and LNG
in Trinidad and Tobago, http://www.iags.org/n1115045.htm)
The idea that terrorists could attack an LNG tanker en route to the U.S. or Japan or Spain, the three main
destinations for LNG leaving the Caribbean , either via sea or with small aircraft on a suicide mission must be
recognized as possible and acted upon . The island chain that LNG tankers sail through en route to their
destinations provide any number of soft targets with limited response resources.

LNG Impact Econ
LNG tanker attack would crush the global economy
GAO Report 7 (FEDERAL EFFORTS NEEDED TO ADDRESS CHALLENGES IN PREVENTING AND
RESPONDING TO TERRORIST ATTACKS ON ENERGY COMMODITY TANKERS, 12/10, lexis)
Nonetheless, these successful attacks abroad, the expressed desire by terrorists to target U.S. economic interests ,
and the potential outcome of a terrorist attack on a tanker have led Congress and the Administration to conclude that
protective efforts are warranted. A successful attack on an energy commodity tanker could have substantial public
safety, environmental, and economic consequences . Public safety and environmental consequences of an attack vary by
commodity. For instance, highly combustible commodities like LNG and LPG have the potential to catch fire, or in a more
unlikely scenario- -if they are trapped in a confined space such as under a dock-- explode, posing a threat to public safety. Crude oil
and heavy petroleum products remain in the environment after they are spilled and must be removed, potentially causing significant
environmental damage. Finally, the economic consequences of a major attack could include a temporary price spike
reflecting fears of further attacks, and supply disruptions associated with delays of shipments if major transit
routes, key facilities, or key ports are closed. The loss of one cargo of an energy commodity might not have a
significant, sustained price impact. However, if an attack results in port closures for multiple days or weeks, price
responses and higher costs could mean losses in economic welfare to consumers, businesses, and government
amounting to billions of dollars .
LNG Impact Free Trade
LNG attack would wreck global trade
Mihailescu 4 (ANDREA R. MIHAILESCU, 7/13/04 (Analysis: LNG a security risk to the U.S.?, UPI, lexis)
The bulk of the world's LNG trade moves by sea. Singapore's Defense Minister, Rear Adm. Teo Chee Hean, says the
threat from maritime terrorism is real and an attack against a major shipping checkpoint such as the Suez Canal or Strait of Malacca
could have serious repercussions for global trade . Dow Jones quoted Hean as saying, "For terrorists, the payoff from a
successful maritime attack could be considerable. The damage could be horrific if terrorists turned supertankers, LPG
-- liquid petroleum gas -- LNG or chemical carriers into floating bombs." His comments were echoed by former Bush security official
Richard Clarke.

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