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Cru Oilma
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certain to have a long-term effect on the nature oil. Without a dramatic move toward
of politics in many weak or authoritarian states. conservation in the West, or the discovery of
That, in turn, could have a negative global an alternative to fossil fuels, we are going to
impact on our current post-cold war world. be in this $40-to-$60 range, or higher, for the
In other words, the price of crude should now foreseeable future.
be a daily preoccupation of the US secretary of Politically, that will mean that a whole
state, not just the treasury secretary.
Since 9/11, oil prices have structurally
shifted from the $20-$40 range to the $40-$60
group of petrolist states with weak institutions
or outright authoritarian governments will
likely experience an erosion of freedoms and
' 4The lower
range. Part of this move has to do with a an increase in corruption and autocratic,
the price of crude
general sense of insecurity in global oil markets antidemocratic behaviour. Leaders in these oil falls, the more
due to violence in Iraq, Nigeria, Indonesia, and countries can expect to have a significant
Sudan, but mainly appears to be the result of increase in their disposable income to build up petrolist leaders
what I call the 'flattening' of the world and security forces, bribe opponents, buy votes or
z
the rapid influx into the global marketplace of public support, and resist international norms are sensitive
4 three billion new consumers from China, Brazil, and conventions. One need only pick up a
a•
India, and the former Soviet Empire - all newspaper on any day of the week to see
to what outside
dreaming of a house, a car, a microwave, and evidence of this trend. forces think
a refrigerator. Their rising energy appetites are Consider a February 2005 article in The Wall
enormous. This already is, and will continue to Street Journal about how the mullahs in Tehran of themY
be, a steady source of pressure on the price of (who now are flush with cash thanks to high
Russia, Iran,
Nigeria and Freedom House Natrom in Transit Ranki.9s, vs. Crude Oil Prices Freedom to Trade Intern ationally vs, Crude Oil Prices
Venezuela
have displayed
a clear inverse
correlation
between the
$30 1
pace of freedom ove $25
OilPr,as I'Medo. 1,0
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and the rise in I~0
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P-o,a
Freedom House Freedom in the World Rankings vs. Crude Oil Prices
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