Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SECTORS”
PROJECT REPORT
2009
Of
MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
SUBMITTED BY
Department Of Management
1
R.D.ENGINEERING COLLEGE, DUHAI,
GHAZIABAD
DECLARATION
All the information and data in my project are authentic to the best of my
2
Acknowledgement
Project work is never the work of an individual. It is more a combination of
individuals.
and cooperation during the course of the project. He provided me with his
Thakur, Ms. Neha Goel, Ms. Anuja Shukla and last but not the least Mr.
project work
Preface
The stock market in India has been a kind of mysterious place for many
people who think that the persons investing their money in the market are
minds of the common man that because of the volatility of the market,
4
However, this fear can be checked by proper research on a share
arbitrate manner but certain trends are repeated over the time again and
pattern of the shares of IndiaBulls Financial Services Ltd. over the past
one year and a half so that one can understand the movement of the
The project will provide a tool in the hands of the investors to take the
decisions regarding their investment in the shares of IBFSL that is, when
to buy or when to sell the shares. It will also give them the answer that
whether it is right time to invest in this share or not, and what could be
the best time to invest in this share. project deals with the analysis of
given as under:
5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
6
SR PARTICULARS PAG
. E
NO NO.
.
1 Executive Summary
2 Objective of Study
3 Research Methodology
4 Chapter 1
Chapter 3
5 • Research An Introduction
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Chapter 5
7 Chapter 6
• Conclusion
8 • Annexure
Bibliography
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
vigour and greater participation from various sectors of the economy. The
It seems that corporate India’s growth is likely to remain robust, given the
confidence.
9
I have introduced a new section in this year’s edition, viz., Insights. Some
The report describes various aspects of the Stocks and focus on the
to find out the risk and return perspective of the stocks of different
sectors.
knowing the resistance and support level for the company’s which is
10
Then I have done the fundamental analysis to predict the stocks
behaviour in future moreover the technical analysis for stocks return for
the above mentioned stocks, the Also I have done the Financial Strength
way .
In this section I have done the full study of the ICICI, Educomp Solutions
and Unitech.
I have also done swot analysis for these three companies with strengths,
At last I have done an analysis of these stocks and had predicted the
stock prices for future and the support as well as resistance level so that it
can be taken up by the investors to decide the time and date for their
11
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
companies.
study of different Indian sectors Data for companies were collected and
12
companies was done and it was clarified how much change is there with a
Need of the study was to get an incite into the different sectors and future
such companies need to understand the market they want to enter, the
earned money. One needs to generate trust and give better services as
Bulls as they will come to know about the different sector, how it
functions, and trends in the sector etc. Also it is very important to know
research was done to know the volumes they generate, the type of client
they have, the type projects they have, the type of segment they need to
enter or come out, the growth that they require for there order book so
that they sustain in this market scenario, their strategy to trade, liquidity
13
and investments made by them. This will provide an insight to formulate
METHODOLOGY
An Introduction
14
Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can
of knowledge made for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the
Significance of research
significance of research.
15
“All progress is born of inquiry. Doubt is better than overconfidence, for it
added importance, both from the government and the business houses.
Research Methodology
The objective of this research project was to provide Gulf Bulls Securities
secondary data collection and then use of valuation ratio for the
estimating the revenue which they can generate in future like steel prices
16
to sales ratio, cement prices to sales ratio along with independent
One of the section is to establish ratio analysis and order book analysis,
for which data relating to the companies traded at Sensex, Nse etc was
collected and spot and risk factor has been associated. Price of raw
material and sales trend were also established. Beta factor of each
from the secondary data collected and analysis has been done as to how
two types of data collection techniques were used i.e. with the help of
research analyst and secondly with the help of research report given by
project guide at the company. In both the methods, the analysis has been
done for the sector. It was taken care that I refrained from expressing my
own opinion. All the data collected was made in such a way that it acted
as a structured instrument.
17
Limitations
• The biggest problem that I faced during this research study was
uncompleted project.
18
• Year ending period and my survey period were same, creating a
19
CHAPTER 1
COMPANY
PROFILE
20
COMPANY’S PROFILE
About company
these markets.
BSE, and derivatives in NSE. The company has a worldwide vision and it
along with its associates is currently providing state of the art stock
broking services through all the major stock exchanges, trading through
NSE & BSE, depository services through CDSL and all the services are
available under the one roof. With its ability to evolve with the changing
21
environment the Company has been able to put itself to the forefront of
stock broking activities. With its network spreading across various parts of
India, it has made a distinct mark among the stock broking houses and
news & views, which are designed to meet the requirements of everyone
“Our vision is to grow our business and make our presence across the
world.”
Management Team:
Name Designation
Mr. Vivek Rana Chairman / Managing Director
22
Mr. Yajur Chaudhary Director
23
Areas of Expertise
Gulf Bulls offers real time trading opportunities on the NSE. It also offers
trader as well as the net savvy investor. Gulf Bulls offers state-of –the–art
the net, online depository services, commodities trading and retail debt
Research
Gulf Bulls is a research driven organization. Daily Call is its morning
newsletter that takes a trading call on the market and gives a ringside
messaging that are of utmost essence to the serious trader. The Weekly
Watch delivered to all the clients every Saturday evening is the most
24
derivatives markets, technical outlook and trading ideas for the
international agri-commodities.
Mutual Funds
fund schemes, list of new schemes issued in the market, interviews with
and a Risk Profiler – which helps the customers in ascertaining one’s own
Advisory Services
insurance and other small saving products. The distribution services add
Gulf Bulls’s set of diligent advisors helps its customers plan and get more
25
out of one’s money. The schemes include, fixed income, bank fixed
schemes and
NRI deposits. Gulf Bulls also provides tax planning services – where a list
of tax saving schemes and a forum for Q&A where the queries are
decisions.
Loan Advisory
Gulf Bulls also provides advisory services on the loan schemes of certain
banks to its customers. The schemes include, home loans, adhoc loans,
professional loans, educational loans, consumer loans and auto loans. Its
has entered into partnership with many leading banks in providing this
facility.
26
Performance
The Company registered strong growth during the first 10 months of
Growth Areas
Gulf Bulls has diversified its business to other areas such as portfolio
Membership
27
Products offered
Offline
Rs.200 : AMC
Online
Demat
Strength
• Excellent infrastructure
Weakness
Opportunity
increased
knowledge.
29
Threat
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH AN
INTRODUCTION
30
RESEARCH an Introduction
of knowledge made for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the
Significance of research
organization.
added importance, both from the government and the business houses.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
represent all known information about the markets. Prices not only
32
reflect intrinsic facts, they also represent human emotion and the
pervasive mass psychology and mood of the moment. Prices are, in the
both facts and emotion. Analysts use their technical research to decide
1. STOCK CHARTS
A stock chart is a simple two-axis (X-Y) plotted graph of price and time.
illustrates this movement of price over time. Individual data plots for
charts can be made using the CLOSING price for each day. The plots are
combination of the OPENING, CLOSING, HIGH and/or LOW prices for that
market session can be used for the data plots. This second type of data is
called a PRICE BAR. Individual price bars are then overlaid onto the
2. TRENDS
The stock chart is used to identify the current trend. A trend reflects the
average rate of change in a stock's price over time. Trends exist in all time
frames and all markets. Trends can be classified in three ways: UP, DOWN
draws a series of higher highs and higher lows on the stock chart.
series of
lower highs and lower lows on the stock chart. In a downtrend, there
price swings back and forth for long periods between easily seen upper
the stock chart and there will be LITTLE or NO rate of price change. Trends
34
tend to persist over time. A stock in an uptrend will continue to rise until
Chart readers try to locate TOPS and BOTTOMS, which are those
using TRENDLINES. Very often a straight line can be drawn UNDER three
price bars then return to that trend line, they tend to find SUPPORT or
3. VOLUME
pane. Often these will show green bars for up days and red bars for down
days. Investors and traders can measure buying and selling interest
their volume compares with days in which price moves in the opposite
direction.
35
Stocks that are bought with greater interest than sold are said to
accumulation often will rise some time after the buying begins.
Alternatively, stocks under distribution will often fall some time after
selling begins. It takes volume for a stock to rise but it can fall of its own
When a rally runs out of new participants, a stock can easily fall. Investors
their LIQUIDITY. Liquid stocks are very easy for traders to buy and
sell. Liquid stocks require very high SPREADS (transaction costs) to buy or
sell and often cannot be eliminated quickly from a portfolio. Stock chart
How can one organize the endless stream of stock chart data into a
logical format? Charts allow investors and traders to look at past and
36
present price action in order to make reasonable predictions and wise
logic and creativity. So it's no surprise that over the last century
two forms of analysis have developed that focus along these lines of
critical examination.
the subject just after World War II. The newer form of interpretation
gains its power from the tendency of charts to repeat the same bar
37
and SHOULDERS, TRIANGLES, RECTANGLES, DOUBLE TOPS, DOUBLE
BOTTOMS and FLAGS. Also, chart landscape features such as GAPS and
more slowly than oscillators. They look deeply into the rear view mirror
OVERSOLD levels.
of investors and traders that make up the market each day tend to act
with a herd mentality as price rises and falls. This "crowd" tends to
uncovers growing stress within the crowd that should eventually translate
38
The concept of SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE is essential to
when it hits the floor or drops after being thrown to the ceiling,
support and resistance defines natural boundaries for rising and falling
prices. Buyers and sellers are constantly in battle mode. Support defines
that level where buyers are strong enough to keep price from falling
further. Resistance defines that level where sellers are too strong to allow
from a decline should end. Support and resistance are created because
entered the market in the past will tend to generate a similar mix
of participants when price again returns to that level. When price pushes
above resistance, it becomes a new support level. When price falls below
price tends to thrust forward sharply as the crowd notices the BREAKOUT
39
resistance. This failure is known as a FALSE BREAKOUT. Support and
They most often manifest as horizontal price levels. But trend lines at
level. Also, the greater volume traded at any level, the stronger that level
will be. Support and resistance exist in all time frames and all
markets.
Levels in longer tie frames are stronger than those in shorter time
frames. The ideas of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street
Journal, form the basis of technical analysis today. The behavior patterns
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
40
a business to determine its financial health and gives you an idea of the
determine the current worth and, more importantly, how the market
Earnings
It’s all about earnings. When you come to the bottom line, that’s what
investors want to know. How much money is the company making and
When earnings fall short, the market may hammer the stock. Every
closely and if they fall short of projected earnings, sound the alarm. For
41
While earnings are important, by themselves they don’t tell you anything
about how the market values the stock. To begin building a picture of how
the stock is valued you need to use some fundamental analysis tools.
These ratios are easy to calculate, but you can find most of them already
These are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis. They focus on
earnings, growth, and value in the market. The tools are given belows:-
7. Dividend Yield
8. Book Value
9. Return on Equity
No single number from this list is a magic bullet that will give you a buy or
42
Ratio analysis
net profits may look impressive, but the firm s performance can be said to
be good or bad
only when the net profit figure is related to the firm s investment. The
obligations
the firm
• The extent to which the firm has used its long –term solvency by
borrowing
generating sales
Financial ratios provide the basic for answering some important questions
44
How liquid is the firm? Liquidity refers to the firms’ ability to
meet maturing obligating and to convert assets into cash. This factor is
order.
maximize the value of the firm’s common stock, and level of returns being
firm;
firms belongs
CLASSIFICATION OF RATIOS
46
Ratios can be classified from various points of view .In reality; the
based on figures in the balance sheet .in the profit & loss account in both
Thus they may be worked out on the basis of figures contained in the
financial statements.
In the view of the requirement of the various users (e.g. short term
These ratios are calculated on the basis of the terms of income statement
These ratios are calculated on the basis of the figures of the figures of
position statement only e.g. current ratio, debt equity ratio etc.
47
3. INTER STATEMENT RATIO OR COMPOSITE RATIO:-
position statement e.g. fixed assets turnover ratios net profit to capital
employed etc
CHAPTER 5
48
ANALYSIS OF
DIFFERENT INDIAN
SECTORS & ITS
LEADING
COMPANIES
49
INDIAN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
the IT industry, are an integral part of nearly every major global industry.
The information technology (IT) industry has become of the most robust
industries in the world. IT, more than any other industry or economic
Owing to its easy accessibility and the wide range of IT products available,
the demand for IT services has increased substantially over the years. The
employment.
50
Features of the IT Industry at a Glance
• Economies of scale for the information technology industry are high. The
• The IT industry helps many other sectors in the growth process of the
51
MAJOR STEPS TAKEN FOR PROMTION OF IT INDUSTRY
• Systems architecture
• Networking
• Application development
• Testing
• Documentation
• Operational support
• Security services
52
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
Company description
Educomp group serves over 19,000 schools and 9.4 million learners
53
and educators across the world. Company operates private schools
across various cities and also partners with various state governments.
Learning.com, USA, AsknLearn Pte Ltd, Singapore and via its associates
classes,
online
delivery etc.
54
accounting and marketing, and offers online and in-person tutoring. It
private schools as they have deeper pockets than public schools. The
Languages.
• Received financial closure for Rs 725cr of debt for its K-12 business.
• Debtor days for company have come down from 179 days to
145 days.
• The Company, via Edu Infra (as defined below) enters collaborative
platform, which
56
test preparation programme, leveraging IP, a software development
COMPANY MANAGEMENT
Executive
57
Name of Company Ownership Interest
Edumatics Inc. -U.S.A. 1655 100%
India
The Company has seventeen subsidiaries, one associate and two planned
SHARE DATA
Price Rs.1898.00
58
NSE Code INE216H01019
Group A
Shareholding pattern(%)
Promoters 55.03%
FII's 6.97%
59
MONTHLY HIGH AND LOW VALUE OF SHARE PRICE OF
2008
2009
60
➢ As the high/low for every month is specified here, we can determine
month.
48.85% within high and low in the equity report for the month.
SOLUTION PVT.LTD
61
SEPT 2008 19-Sep-08 3,880.00 3,371.00 509.00
Margin
Average Difference between the day High and day Low in the last one
year for Educomp Solution is at Rs.230 and for last three month is Rs.120
62
January 2009
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00 Resistance
1,500.00 High
Low
1,000.00
Close
500.00
Support
0.00
Level
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
04
08
12
16
02
06
10
14
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
The stock has seen a downtrend for past few months, we have taken
Share High, Low and closing price into consideration in order to determine
the difference between Day high and day low which is significantly.
63
During January the Support level was 1750, and the Resistance level was
2105, and each time it has broken the resistance or support we have
F e b r u ar y 2 009
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
Hig h
1,000.00 L ow
C lose
500.00
0.00
9
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-2
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
02
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-
04
10
16
22
02
06
08
12
14
18
20
24
26
For the month of February, the stock declined due to some of the rumours
about the company accounting fudging case, but was resolved very well
support level.
64
So it has attained new its 52 week low price level. Support level was 1500
points and the Resistance level was 2050 points. Even the market
March 2009
2,500.00
2,000.00
Resistance
1,500.00
High
1,000.00 Low
Close
500.00
0.00
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
March month remained positive for the market as a result this script
continues to achieve new high in this time frame. The gap between Low
and High was significantly low and closing price was closer to the highest
65
price on all the trading day. Support level was 1680 points and resistant
Solution followed market trend and investors were optimistic and Profit
66
W
eeklyChart5Jan-9Jan
3,000.00
2,5
00.00
2,000.00
1
,5
00.00
1
,000.00
5
00.00
0.00
1
/5/2009 1
/6/2009 1
/7
D/2
a0
t0
e9 1
/8/2009 1
/9/2009
WeeklyChart12Jan-16Jan
2,100.00
2,050.00
2,000.00
1,950.00
1,900.00
9
1,850.00
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
6
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
D
ate
1
67
• Fall of Rs.553 within a week
W
eeklyC
hart1
9Ja
n -2
3Ja
n
2
,50
0.0
0
2
,00
0.0
0
1
,50
0.0
0
1
,00
0.0
0
5
00.0
0
9
9
0
0
.00
0
0
2
2
2
/
/
1
9
3
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
D
ate
1
68
• Resistance Level: Rs.1800
W
eeklyChart27Jan-30Jan
1,820.00
1,800.00
1,780.00
1,760.00
1,740.00
1,720.00
1,700.00
9
9
0
0
1,680.00
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
/
/
7
0
8
/3
/2
/2
/2
D
Eate
1
R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00 Series1
50 0.00
9
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/3
/4
/6
/5
69
2
D
ATE
• HIGH 1695 2-FEB-2009
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00 S
eries1
1,000.00
50 0.00
9
9
9
9
9
0.00
0
0
0
/2
/2
2
/2
/
0
3
/9
/1
/1
/1
/1
2
D
A TE
• There has been gradual increase in the the share price of the stock of
educomp solution.
70
SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T
2,200.00
2,100.00
2,000.00
1,900.00 S
eries1
1,800.00
1,700.00
9
9
1,600.00
0
0
1,500.00
0
0
0
0
2
2
/2
/2
/2
/
/
7
0
6
/1
/1
/2
/1
/1
2
2
D
ATE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 Series1
9
1,500.00
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
4
7
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
D
A TE
R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T
1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 S
eries1
1,500.00
9
1,450.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/3
/5
/6
/4
3
D
ATE
• Resistance Level:Rs.1600
72
SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
1,800.00
1,700.00
1,600.00 Series1
1,500.00
9
1,400.00
9
1,300.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
3
/9
/1
/1
/1
/1
3
3
D
A TE
R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T
2,000.0
0
1,950.0
0
S
erie
s1
1,900.0
0
9
9
0
1,850.0
0
0
0
0
0
2
/2
2
/
/
7
0
6
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
3
D
ATE
73
• HIGH 2039.90 17-MAR-2009
• Resistance Level:Rs.2000
ResearchReport
2,250.00
2,200.00
2,1
50.00
2,1
00.00
Series1
2,050.00
2,000.00
1
,950.00
1
,900.00
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/200
9
Date
74
Financials
remain main driver for growth for next three financial years.
RATIO ANALYSIS:
75
Profitability Ratios Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06
margin
Turnover Ratios
Ratio
Ratio
Solvency Ratio
Valuation Ratio
P/BV 18 24 31
76
VALUATION RATIOS AS ON 31ST MARCH 2009
EPS 47.87
Analysis of Ratios:-
2012. Company had high inventory turnover ratio as company has built
business.
Future Outlook
77
• Company is poised to continue perform exceeding well
78
Growth Outlook
Company is likely to post very high growth rate for a long time. Revenue
figures are expected to show a CAGR of 70% for the period 2009-2011, 35%
for the period 2011-2014 and 20% for the period 2014-2016. We forecast
79
strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see limited risks to
Company has forward P/E of 7.5 for FY-2011 on constant prices while
Another positive for this company is its short payback period on its
and
product differentiation.
80
Risks:
disappointment
movement.
raising fresh
both
(E.g.-Key
81
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE MONTH
May, 2009) and this share price is highly correlated with market so for
can say that international investors are bit optimistic so market can
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo Rate and CRR,
which can keep market interest for some more time. Inflation is all
time Low (As on 14th May 2009) etc. Further stimulus announced made
4th quarters result and annual result would be the major focus for the
investor and it would also decide the direction of the market in the
upcoming months.
82
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR THE COMING
MONTHS OF 2009
Support and Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our
team have done research on it and made the conclusion that it will not
REASONS:
quarter alone.
3- 4th Quarter Results are expected in the month of April and it may
4- General Election is not far away and market will take some rest
new Support Level for the Month of June will be 2700* points
83
Why Buy: Valuations at 22x FY09E, 12.25x FY2010E and 8.5x
recession proof.
Downside Risks:
company to raise
84
SWOT ANALYSIS OF EDUCOMP
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
85
• In the emerging technology areas like Blue Tooth, WAP etc.
Threats:
services.
Regulation Act of India, 1949 can be broadly classified into two major
nationalized banks, the State Bank of India and its group banks,
regional rural banks and private sector banks (the old/ new domestic
and foreign). These banks have over 67,000 branches spread across
the country.
86
The first phase of financial reforms resulted in the nationalization of 14
major banks in 1969 and resulted in a shift from Class banking to Mass
the sector in the early nineties, the Public Sector Banks (PSB) s found it
extremely difficult to compete with the new private sector banks and
the foreign banks. The new private sector banks first made their
87
During the year 2000, the State Bank Of India (SBI) and its 7
percent of the deposits and 47.5 percent of credit during the same
Current Scenario
PSBs, which are the mainstay of the Indian Banking system are in the
equity, while on the other hand the private sector banks are
sector banks are forging ahead and rewriting the traditional banking
business model by way of their sheer innovation and service. The PSBs
The private players however cannot match the PSB’s great reach,
great size and access to low cost deposits. Therefore one of the means
for them to combat the PSBs has been through the merger and
acquisition (M& A) route. Over the last two years, the industry has
with Times Bank Icici Bank’s acquisition of ITC Classic, Gulf Bulls
Punjab, Vysya Bank are said to be on the lookout. The UTI bank- Global
about the realization that all was not well in the functioning of many of
them into the mainstream banking arena, while the PSBs are still
both new and the existing ones, have been permitted to open up to 12
stipulation of 8 branches.
the takeover of even the PSBs. The FDI rules being more rationalized in
Q1FY02 may also pave the way for foreign banks taking the M& A
them are also entering the new vistas of Insurance. Banks with their
phenomenal reach and a regular interface with the retail investor are
the best placed to enter into the insurance sector. Banks in India have
90
been allowed to provide fee-based insurance services without risk
Industry
securities recorded a Cagr of 18.8 percent per annum during the same
period.
(GDP) growth of only 6.0 percent as against the previous year’s 6.4
91
The growth in aggregate deposits of the scheduled commercial banks
at 15.4 percent in FY01 percent was lower than that of 19.3 percent in
the previous year, while the growth in credit by SCBs slowed down to
The industrial slowdown also affected the earnings of listed banks. The
ended March 2001. Net profits grew by 40.75 percent in the first
quarter of 2000-2001.
On the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) front while most banks managed
to fulfill the norms, it was a feat achieved with its own share of
hiked to 12.0 percent by the year 2004 based on the Basle Committee
also shore up its capital at the same time so that its capital as a
rate. While the IPO route was a much-fancied one in the early ‘90s, the
92
Consequently, banks have been forced to explore other avenues to
shore up their capital base. While some are wooing foreign partners to
add to the capital others are employing the M& A route. Many are also
going in for right issues at prices considerably lower than the market
The two years, post the East Asian crises in 1997-98 saw a climb in the
global interest rates. It was only in the later half of FY01 that the US
Fed cut interest rates. India has however remained more or less
The RBI has been affecting bank rate and CRR cuts at regular intervals
to improve liquidity and reduce rates. The only exception was in July
2000 when the RBI increased the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to stem
the fall in the rupee against the dollar. The steady fall in the interest
93
Governmental Policy
After the first phase and second phase of financial reforms, in the
rationing for the private sector and the interest rate controls led to the
system was felt. This was worked out mainly with the help of the
rates have thus been steadily deregulated in the past few years with
banks being free to fix their Prime Lending Rates(PLRs) and deposit
94
rates for most banking products. Credit market reforms included
moves that will lend greater autonomy to the industry. In order to lend
more depth to the capital markets the RBI had in November 2000 also
total domestic credit in the previous year. But this move did not have
the desired effect, as in, while most banks kept away almost
completely from the capital markets, a few private sector banks went
95
deals. The chances of seeing banks making a comeback to the stock
percent from 20 percent during the first quarter of this fiscal came as a
companies was also increased from 24.0 percent to 49.0 percent and
help banks pass on the benefit to the borrowers on new loans leading
to reduced costs and easier lending rates. Banks will also benefit on
has already been built into the terms of the loan. The reduction of
percent in Budget 2001-02 was a much awaited move for the banking
however the small investor is not very happy with the move.
96
Some of the not so good measures however like reducing the limit for
2,500 from the earlier level of Rs 10,000, in Budget 2001-02, had met
with disapproval from the banking fraternity who feared that the move
reduce the borrowing costs for exporters. Thus this move could trigger
exports growth in the future. Banks can also hope to earn increased
revenue with the interest paid by RBI on CRR balances being increased
The stock market scam brought out the unholy nexus between the
Banks from financing the stock market operations and is also in the
Meanwhile the foreign banks have a bone to pick with the RBI. The RBI
97
Tier-1 Capital for drawing up exposure limits to companies effective 1
April 2002. This will force foreign banks either to infuse fresh capital to
maintain the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) or pare their asset base.
also sought to keep foreign competition away from the nascent net
percent while the projected expansion in broad money (M3) for 2001-
should reach US$50.0 billion in FY02 and the Indian rupee should hold
steady.
The interest rates are likely to remain stable this fiscal based on an
and acquisitions in the future. Banks are likely to opt for the universal
98
superior customer service will continue to be the imperatives for
Public Sector banks that imbibe new concepts in banking, turn tech
savvy, leaner and meaner post VRS and obtain more autonomy by
size. Weaker PSU banks are unlikely to survive in the long run.
Foreign banks are likely to succeed in their niche markets and be the
etc will stand them good, possible acquisitions of PSU banks will
definitely give them the much needed scale of operations and access
99
Also, they have been amongst the first movers in the lucrative
insurance segment. Already, banks such as Icici Bank and Hdfc Bank
deal of action in the future. In the near term, the low interest rate
10
0
ICICI BANK:
after tax Rs. 30.14 billion for the nine months ended December 31,
2008. The Bank has a network of 1,419 branches and about 4,644
specialized
Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its
10
1
American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are listed on the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE).
History
Bank. In 1999, ICICI become the first Indian company and the first bank
10
2
After consideration of various corporate structuring alternatives in the
of ICICI and ICICI Bank formed the view that the merger of ICICI with
ICICI Bank would be the optimal strategic alternative for both entities,
and would create the optimal legal structure for the ICICI group's
universal banking strategy. The merger would enhance value for ICICI
services. The merger would enhance value for ICICI Bank shareholders
Bank approved the merger of ICICI and two of its wholly-owned retail
Capital Services Limited, with ICICI Bank. The merger was approved by
shareholders of ICICI and ICICI Bank in January 2002, by the High Court
entity.
SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES
Management Inc.1
International Limited
10
4
• ICICI Home Finance Company Limited
Recent developments
Board Members
10
5
➢ Mr. P.M. Sinha
Officer
SHARE DATA
10
6
Price Rs.349.45
(R^2)
31/04/09
Group A
10
7
MFs invested in this company
Series 1 - 13 M - Institutional
Plan - Dividend
7 - A - Growth
7 - B - Growth
7 - A - Dividend
7-B-
10
8
• 19% year-on-year decrease in operating & direct marketing
10
9
Shareholdingpattern
Pvt Corporatebodies
N RI's,OCB's&foreign
others
General Public
39.01, 59%
11
0
Major Gain And Lose For ICICI BANK LTD. From Jan-08 To
March-09
31-Oct-08
Jan-08 345.75
14-Jan-08 399.35
1465.00 53.60
22-Jan-08 15.50%
1005.55
18-Jul-08
Feb-08 551.2
4-Feb-08 1245.20617.6 66.40
11-Feb-08 12.05%
996.00
23-Jul-08
Mar-08 661.3
3-Mar-08 738.25
1065.00 76.95
18-Mar-08 11.64%
720.00
25-Jan-08
Apr-08 1,134.00
28-Apr-08 1,259.25
947.00 125.25
1-Apr-08 11.04%
732.00
11
1
Five Major Loses For ICICI BANK in (%) terms
Date Prev.Close Day Close Change % Change
11
2
Month Monthly Avg. Margin % Monthly Avg. Margin
11
3
Technical Analysis :
1,600.00
1,400.00
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00 Close
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
10/1/2008
11/1/2008
12/1/2008
1/1/2008
3/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
3/1/2009
2/1/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
2/1/2009
Resistance level:
Rs.760
Support Level:
Rs.300
11
4
• Rumours started surfacing about the bank’s overseas exposure
losses.
Resistanc
e
Monthly Data :
Support
Level:Rs
ICICI Bank's Performance On May'08
1000
950
Share Price
900
850 Series1
800
750
700
5/ 08
5/ 0 8
5/ 08
10 8
20 8
12 8
14 8
16 8
18 8
22 8
24 8
26 8
28 8
30 8
8
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 00
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 00
5/ 0 0
00
5/ 00
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
5/
Date
11
5
➢ Reason- As we could see the downturn of the stock in the month
value of Rs10.
11
6
ICICI Bank's Performance On June'08
RESISTANCE
900
800 LEVELRs.780
700
Share Price
600
500
Series1
400
300
200
100
20 8 0
6/ 08
6/ 0 8
6/ 08
10 8
12 8
14 8
16 8
18 8
22 8
24 8
26 8
28 8
30 8
8
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 00
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 00
6/ 0 0
00
6/ 00
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
6/
Date
2008, so we can say that the share price would move up in July.
7/ 0 8
7/ 0 8
7/ 0 8
11 8
13 8
17 8
21 8
23 8
27 8
31 8
8
15 8
19 8
25 8
29 8
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
00
7/ 00
7/ 00
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
9/
7/
7/
Date
11
7
➢ Reason- As we could see the rise in share price after the mid of
retail Fixed
900 Resistance
800 Level:Rs 790
700
Share Price
600
500 Support
Series1
400
300
200
100
0
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
11 8
15 8
23 8
29 8
13 8
17 8
19 8
21 8
25 8
27 8
8
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
00
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 00
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
8/
Date
➢ Reason- ICICI had benefit from their Quarter 1st results, that’s
why its price was increased than they allotted equity shares to
11
8
ICICI Bank's Performance On Sept'08
800
700 Resistance Level:Rs.
600 725
Share Price
500
400 Series1
300
200
100
0
9/ 0 8
9/ 0 8
13 8
15 8
17 8
19 8
21 8
23 8
25 8
27 8
29 8
8
9/ 0 8
9/ 0 8
11 8
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
00
9/ 00
20
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
9/
Date
September. The vital reason for this is the financial crisis and a
11
9
Share price Share Price
12 10
/1
/1/ /2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10 0 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
12 20 0 /3 8
/3/ 8 /2
10 0 0
12 20 0 /5 8
/5/ 8 /2
10 0 0
12 20 0 /7 8
/2
REASON:-There
/7/ 8 10 0 0
12 20 0 /9 8
/9 8 10 /20
/1 08
12 /20 1
/11 08 10 /2 0
/1 08
was
12 /2 0 3/
/1 08 10 2 0
3 /1 08
5
a
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/1 08 /1 08
5 7
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/17 08 /1 08
9
Date
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/19 08 /2 08
1/
Date
12 /2 0 10 2 0
/2 08 /2 08
1 3
downfall
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/2 08
/23 08 5
10 /2 0
12 /2 0 /2 08
7
in
/25 08
10 /2 0
ICICI Bank's Performance On Oct'08
12 /2 0 /2 08
/27 08 9/
10 2 0
12 /2 0 /3 08
the
/29 08 1/
20
12 /2 0 08
prices
Series1
Series1
470
because
455
of
0
12
the
Resistance Level:Rs.
Resistance Level: Rs
➢ Reasons- There was uptrend in prices due to Repurchase &
rates.
600
500 Resistance Level:
Share Price
1/ 0 9
13 9
15 9
17 9
19 9
21 9
23 9
25 9
27 9
29 9
9
1/ 0 9
1/ 0 9
11 9
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
00
1/ 00
20
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
1/
Date
12
1
IC IC I B a n k's P e rfo rm a n c e O n F e b '0 9
300
250 S eries 1
200
150
100
50
0
2/4 0 9
2/6 0 9
2/8 0 9
2/1 00 9
2/1 0 09
2/2 0 09
2/2 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/2 0 09
2/2 0 09
9
00
20
/20
/20
/2
2
2
2/2
4/2
6/2
8/2
2
2/2
6/2
/
4/
0/
0/
2/2
Da te
the month because of the news that the bank tops the list of
12
2
IC IC I B an k's P e rfo rm a n ce o n M arch '09
250
c los ing pric e
200
150
100
50
0
3/ 0 9
3/ 0 9
3/ 0 9
3/ 00 9
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 009
9
00
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
3/
Da te
An upward movement of the stock prices has been seen in the month
been awarded the following titles under The Asset Triple A country
12
3
JANUARY EQUITY CHARTING
Weekly Chart
540
Share Price in (Rs.)
520
500
Resistance Level:
480
Rs.525
460
440
420
1/5/2009 1/6/2009 1/7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/2009
Date
12
4
Weekly Chart(12 Jan-16 Jan)
450
Share Price in (Rs.)
440
430
420
Resistance Level: Rs.442
410
400
390
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the
420
410
Share Price in (Rs.)
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
1/19/2009 1/20/2009 1/21/2009 1/22/2009 1/23/2009
Date
Resistance Level:
Rs380 12
5
➢ Interest rates to come down which will benefit SME’s.
profit by 3.4 %.
410
Share Price in (Rs.)
400
390
380
370
360
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 Date 1/29/2009 1/30/2009
12
6
the quarter ended December 31, 2008 as compared to Rs
410
405
Resistance Level’s.
400
402
Share Price
395
390 Series1
385
380
375
370
2/2/2009 2/3/2009 2/4/2009 2/5/2009 2/6/2009
Date
ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated
12
7
Performance of ICICI Bank from 9th feb to 13th feb'09
440
425 Series1
420
415
410
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009
Date
Extinguishment of Bonds.
450
400 Resistance Level: Rs.
350 408
300
Share Price
defaulters.
345
330 Series1
315
2/24/2009 2/25/2009 2/26/2009 2/27/2009
date
the bank was awarded Dun & Bradstreet Banking Award 2009.
12
9
MARCH EQUITY CHARTING
March’09
310
300
Resistance Level: Rs.
290 300
Share price
270
270
260
250
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date
➢ Reason: The RBI has taken a positive step by announcing the cut
13
0
Chanda Kochhar, CEO-designate, ICICI Bank, said. The RBI has
320
310 Resistance Level: Rs.
310
300
Share Price
290
280 Series1
270
260
250
240
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009
date
more than 12% in the previous week due to positive global news
India.
13
1
Performance From 16th March to 20th March'09
340
Resistance Level: Rs.
335 338
330
Share Price
320
315
310
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Date
13
2
Performance from 23rd March to 27th March'09
390
380 Resistance Level: Rs.
370
382
Share price
360
Series1
350
340
330
320
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
date
Financials
QoQ
13
3
Fee income at Rs13.5b was down 25% YoY and 28% QoQ. Treasury
reversal. Opex declined 18% YoY and was stable QoQ. Operating
profit ex-treasury is down 10% YoY and 26% QoQ in 3QFY09. Total
wrote off Rs16b of gross NPAs during the quarter and sold off Rs2b of
NPAs. NPA generation during the quarter was Rs12b (stable for last
declined to 54% from 58% a quarter ago. Net NPAs increased 4% QoQ
despite Rs10b of fresh provision during the quarter. Net NPAs now
(account for 16% of total loan book). While so far the corporate book
We have modelled NPA cost rising to 1.7% in FY09 and 1.9% in FY10
to 1.5% in FY11.
ICICI UK’s total assets declined QoQ from USD8.7b to USD7.6. Loan
merely USD 1.4m. MTM taken through reserves during 3QFY09 was a
We expect ICICI Bank to report EPS of Rs34 in FY09 and Rs39 in FY10.
BV would be Rs439 in FY09 and Rs463 in FY10. ABV (adjusted for 50%
investment in subs and 65% net NPAs) would be Rs364 in FY09 and
Rs384 in FY10. We reduce our target price from Rs497 to Rs446 mainly due
13
5
to a) applying 0.8x multiple to BV adjusted for 50% investments in
subsidiaries and 65% net NPAs (earlier not adjusted for NPAs) and b)
13
6
(Rs crore) (Rs crore) Change chang
Analysis:
RATIO ANALYSIS:-
Analysis(%)
Assets
Int.Bear,Liab.
Pofitability
Ratios(%)
Expended/int.Earne
Income
Efficiency
Ratios(%)
Income
13
8
Empl. Cost/Op. 24.2 25.5 28.7 27.9 28.4
Exps.
m)
lac)
Asset-Liability
Profile(%)
Ratio
Valuation
13
9
ABV(for Subs 256 397 415 440 480
Earnings(x)
COMPARATIVE VALUATIONS:-
14
0
x)
%)
%)
14
1
RESULT ANALYSIS:-
14
2
3QFY0 3QFY0 YOY 2QFY0 QOQ FY08 FY09E FY10E
9 8 GR. 9 GR.
% %
Income 3 2 5
Expense 2 1 0
Income(NII)
Income
Income(Incl
uding MTM)
49 35 39
Operating
Costs
Costs
Opex
STATEMENT
6 3 2 5
Expended 5 2 1 90
Income
0 9 5 39
Income 80
Cont.
14
4
Dividend
BALANCE
SHEET
Capital
Surplus 9 5
33 2 5 1
100 11 93 3 34
3 6 5
Liabilities & 5 2
Prov.
581 51 91 0 68
14
5
Current Assets 3,71,21 3,80,41 3,04,722 3,19,200 3,54,349
3 1
78 43 62 8 93
656 61 23 8 08
Assets
9 6
581 51 91 0 68
Mayl, 2009) and ICICI BANK share price is highly correlated with market so
for next 10 days ICICI BANK share price is expected to achieve a new
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo Rate, CRR, and
SBI already had followed the move by cutting the lending rate and home
loan rate to all segments and it is expected that all others banks can also
follow the same ,which can impact the profitability of the banking sector.
MONTHS
Beginning of June the news could be favorable but will the same Support
and Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our team have
REASONS:
14
7
• Market fall is expected because it cannot sustain at this level for
• 4th Quarter Result would the deciding point for the share price of
ICICI BANK.
• General Election is not far away and market will take some rest
exchange may be crucial point for the ICICI BANK share price.
Support Level for the Month of June will be 670* points and
14
8
• Improvement in CASA and margins, and reduction in
Sector view:-
• NPAs have been increasing over the last few quarters and have
industry.
SWOT ANALYSIS
14
9
➢ STRENGHTS:
1) Online Services: ICICI Bank provides online services of all it’s banking
services. All the computerized machines are located in suitable manner &
3) Friendly Staff: The staff of ICICI Bank in all branches is very friendly &
help the customers in all cases. They provide faster services along with
long hrs. of services i.e. 8-8 services to the customers. This service is one
of it’s kind & is very helpful for the customers who are in urgent need of
money.
15
0
5) Other Facilities to the Customers & Employees: ICICI Bank also provides
the customers. And there are also proper Ventilation & sanitary facilities
6) Late night ATM services: ICICI bank provides late night ATM services to
the customers. The ATM centers of ICICI bank works even after 11:00pm.
➢ Weakness:
for the services provided by them when compared to other bank & that is
2) Less Credit Period: ICICI bank provides credit facilities but only upto
limited period. Even when the credit period is not over it sends reminder
15
1
➢ OPPORTUNITIES:
services. That means the bank can have a tie-up with a insurance
company. The bank will advertise & promote the different policies
insurance policies.
This will also upto large extent help the bank earn profits & popularity.
non-aid course where the students specialize in the functioning & services
of the bank & also are knowledge about various tax policies. The bank can
recruit these students through tie-ups with colleges. Such students will
4) Associate with social cause: The bank can also associate itself with
social causes like providing relief aid patients, funding towards natural
calamities. But this falls in the 4th quadrant so the bank should neglect it.
15
2
➢ THREATS
HDFC also provide equivalent facilities like ICICI do and also ICICI do not
2) Net Services: ICICI Bank provides all kind of services on-line. There can
be easy access to the e-mail ids of the customers through wrong people.
made by different managers are diverse and any one wrong decision can
problems to the less educated people. But this threat falls in the 4 th
15
3
Indian Realty Sector
Till a few months back, the real estate industry in India was witnessing a
boom, it is only sometime back the industry is facing a downturn. But one
cannot deny that the real estate market of India is still unorganized, fairly
15
4
transparency. One felt that they would use unscrupulous means to
real estate sector and the change of belief of people can be attributed to
needs, etc. However, this boom in the Indian real estate sector is
sectors.
firms, etc. Along with this, the manpower shortage is the shortage of
place and one can not actually gauge the demand and supply trends
opportunities and issues of affordable, low cost housing in India have been
Also, one of the negative versions of Indian real estate industry is that
buildings, proper waste disposal methods and the longevity of the product
15
5
UNITECH
COMPANY PROFILE:-
Ramesh Chandra, Unitech has over the last three decades emerged as
one of the leading business houses in India. Apart from the fl agship
Consultants Pvt. Ltd., and was converted into a public Limited Company
orders.
15
6
The Company was promoted by a group of technocrats, proficient in the
Hotels and Special Economic Zones. It is known for the quality of its
product and is the first real estate developer to have been certified ISO
Public shareholding
15
7
UnitechShare Price from01-Jan-08 to 31-Mar-09
Resista
600 nce
500
level
Price
400
300
200
Support
100 Level
11/1/2008
10/1/2008
12/1/2008
1/1/2008
2/1/2008
3/1/2008
4/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
2/1/2009
3/1/2009
36
5/1/2008
0
Date
BSE
15
8
400
350
300
250
200
150
High Price
100
Low Price
50
10/1/2008
11/1/2008
12/1/2008
0
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
2/1/2009
3/1/2009
• 52 Week High 338.00 05-May-2008
15
9
OCTOBER 2008
U n it e c h S h a r e P r ic e o f O c t - 0 8
150
100 Resistanc
Price
50 e level
0 101.0
10/1/08
10/3/08
10/7/08
10/9/08
10/5/08
10/11/08
10/17/08
10/19/08
10/21/08
10/25/08
10/27/08
10/29/08
10/13/08
10/15/08
10/23/08
10/31/08
Da te Support
level
30.00
• Rate was down because Net Profit Decrease by 62%. & Expenditure
increased by 62% .
NOVEMBER 2008
16
0
U ni t ec h S har e P r i c e o f N o v - 0 8 Resistanc
60 e level
40
56.00
Price
20
0
11/7/08
11/3/08
11/5/08
11/9/08
11/11/08
11/13/08
11/15/08
11/17/08
11/19/08
11/21/08
11/23/08
11/25/08
11/27/08
Support
Da t e level
23.00
• Rate was down because Net Profit Decrease by 62%. & Expenditure
increased by 62%
DECEMBER 2008
16
1
U ni t e c h S ha r e P r i c e o f D ec - 0 8
Resistanc
50 e level
40
30 45.00
Price
20
10
0
08
08
08
08
08
Support
20
20
/20
/20
/20
/1/
/8/
/15
/22
/29
Date
12
12
level
12
12
12
32.00
• Rate was down because Net Profit Decrease by 62%. & Expenditure
increased by 62%
JANUARY 2009
16
2
Unite ch Share Price of Jan-09
50 Resistanc
40
30 e level
Price
20 47.00
10
0
09
09
9
00
00
00
20
20
Support
/2
/2
/2
1/
8/
15
22
29
1/
1/
1/ Date
1/
1/
level
26.50
FEBRUARY 2009
16
3
33
Unite ch Shar e Price of Fe b-09 Resistanc
32
31 e level
30
32.10
Price
29
28
27
26
25
2/6/2009
2/2/2009
2/4/2009
2/8/2009
2/10/2009
2/14/2009
2/16/2009
2/18/2009
2/20/2009
2/22/2009
2/24/2009
2/26/2009
2/12/2009
Support
Date
level
27.65
MARCH 2009
20
10 36.40
0
9
09
09
9
00
00
00
20
20
2
/2
2/
9/
/
16
23
30
3/
3/
Support
3/
3/
3/
Date
level
24.70
16
4
• HIGH 36.50 26-MAR-2009
30
20
10
0
1/ 5/2009 1/6/2009 1/ 7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/2009
D ate
Support
level
26.50
16
5
• HIGH 47.60 05-JAN-2009
Se cond We e k of Jan'09
Resistanc
36 e level
34
34.80
32
Price
30
28
26
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
Date
Support
level
29.40
16
6
• HIGH 34.95 14-JAN-2009
16
7
Resistanc
e level
31.90
Support
level
26.80
T h ir d W e e k Of Ja n '09
34
32
30
Price
28
26
24
1 /1 9 /20 09 1/20/20 09 1 /21/20 09 1/22/2 0 09 1/23/20 09
DA t e
16
8
• Fall of rs. 05.00 within a week
Resistanc
e level
32.50
Support
level
27.15
33
32
31
30
29
Price
28
27
26
25
24
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 1/29/2009 1/30/2009
Date
16
9
FEBRUARY EQUITY CHARTING
Resistanc
e level
29.30
Support
level
27.75
Fir s t We e k o f Fe b'09
29.5
29
28.5
Price
28
27.5
27
26.5
2/2/2009 2/3/2009 2/4/2009 2/5/2009 2/6/2009
Date
17
0
• HIGH 29.30 02-FEB-2009
Se cond We e k of Fe b'09
33
32 Resistanc
31 e level
Price
30
29
32.10
28
27
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009 Support
Date level
31.10
17
1
Third Week of Feb'09
30.5
30
29.5 Resistanc
29
e level
Price
28.5
28
27.5 29.25
27
26.5
2/16/2009 2/17/2009 2/18/2009 2/19/2009 2/20/2009
Date Support
level
28.30
17
2
Resistanc
e level
28.90
Support
level
28.10
Fo u r t h W e e k o f Fe b '09
29
28.8
28.6
28.4
Price
28.2
28
27.8
27.6
2/24/2 009 2 /25 /200 9 2 /2 6 /2 0 09 2 /2 7 /2 0 09
Da te
17
3
MARCH EQUITY CHARTING
Resistanc
e level
26.60
Support
level
25.60
27.5
27
26.5
Price
26
25.5
25
24.5
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date
17
4
• HIGH 26.95 02-MAR-2009
Resistanc
27
26.5 e level
26
25.5
26.50
Price
25
24.5
24
23.5
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009 Support
Date
level
25.00
17
5
Resistanc
e level
27.10
Support
level
25.95
T hir d w e e k o f M ar '09
27.5
27
26.5
Price
26
25.5
25
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Date
17
6
Resistanc
e level
36.00
Support
level
29.00
Fo u r th W e e k o f M ar '09
40
30
Price
20
10
0
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
Date
17
7
YEARLY MARGIN FOR UNITCH LTD.
YEAR Avg. Margin Avg. Margin (%)
2008 15.931 8.935%
TILL MAR-09 2.747 8.666%
Margin:-The Average Margin for UNITECH LTD. In the last one year and 3
months is 8.75% and Monthly Margin Range from 4-19%. The Margin at
Financials:
17
9
Q2’09 due to the
EBIDTA
cost.We upgrade our rating from Hold to Buy due to the following
reasons:
• Huge land bank spread across the country: Unitech has 13,923
acres
of land spread across all major cities of the country. Nearly 70%
of the
titles.
cities of
levels: The
to the
margined
are
18
0
• Short-term liquidity likely to improve: Unitech is struggling
with short-
obligation of
Rs. 27 bn due by the end of FY09. We believe that it can tide over
incorporates the
believe
Margins(%)
18
1
NPM 40.50% 41.00 36.50%
(Rs.)
Result Highlights
bn in
construction and
real estate sales. Construction revenue declined 64% yoy, from Rs.
517.9
6.9%
between
2008 and 2010, due to the liquidity crisis and the slowdown in
demand.
increased
18
2
considerably to 62% in Q2’09, from 50% in Q2’08, due to a drop in
cement
estate
construction cost. The margin for H1’09 increased 6.5 pts on a yoy
basis,
margin will
3.6 bn (Rs. 2.2 per share) in Q2’09, from Rs. 4.1 bn (Rs. 2.5 per
Rs.1.3 bn in Q2’09. We believe that the net profit margin will drop
further because of the high interest cost and the shift towards low-
18
3
Q2'08 2'09
share data
Revenue
% %
g % % %
ty % %
10.90 9.90% %
EBIT
% %
g % % %
ty % % 135.00
Electrical 8 8 -22 NM NM 45 30 -
33.90
72.40 72.40 %
% %
EBIT
Margins
Estate % % %
tion % %
g % % %
ty
10.40
18
5
%
Outlook
the
combination of the liquidity crisis and the high interest rates. Residential
prices have declined up to 25% from their peaks in the last few
months, while commercial and retail rentals have declined nearly 20%
credit and reduced the loan-to-value amount for home loans. Therefore,
we expect the real estate market to respond with reduced demand and a
affected
due to the liquidty crisis and the slump in real estate demand. The
trailing
6-month interest coverage ratio of 5.0. Its debt stood at Rs. 85.5 bn as of
March 31, 2008. The Company has a debt obligation of Rs. 27 bn, due by
18
6
act as a small breather, allowing the Company to partially reduce its
as the latter have stopped lending to realty firms due to the high-risk
through the the sale of office space, land, and a hotel in the next 3-4
We believe that the Company’s operating margin will fall from the present
are falling due to the decline in cement and steel prices. We expect
prices is likely to offset the gains expected from the lower raw
18
7
the current levels.
WACC of 15.4%.
Unitech is one the large listed companies that does not disclose its
current liquidity situation. Considering the weak demand scenario and the
My fair value estimate for the Company is therefore Rs. 46 per share,
March E %)
Rs.mn,except per
share data
18
8
Net Profit 335 925 12667 16619 30.20%
Margins(%)
% % % % %
% % % %
RATIO ANALYSIS:-
18
9
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE
MONTH
Market is showing uptrend in the last two weeks and SENSEX is now at
expected to achieve a new support level of Rs.77 points but looking at the
optimistic so market can sustain at this high for some more time.
Domestic News
19
0
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo
rate and CRR, which can keep market interest for some
2009
same levels.
REASONS:
19
1
• Market fall is expected because it can’t sustain at this level for
• As it can be noticed from the 3rd quarter result of 2008 that the net
profit is just 13% of the total sales. So its effect will definitely be
seen in the share price of the company. The share price of the
news.
• This is also one of our prediction for the coming weeks that the
support level of the share price will be at Rs77 and the resistance
level of the share will be at Rs107 due to the reason that the
quarter. Price of the share can move a little bit upward but it will
• Inflation data is going negative for the market, so it can affect the
projected new Support Level for the week of 3rd and 4th will be
Key Risks :-
19
2
• Failure to secure private equity deals in projects may result in a
lack of
funding and could lead to delays in execution. This may also exert
margins.
prospects.
Strengths
with a strong international presence in regions of South Asia, the Asia Pacific,
the Middle East, the Caspian, Africa and the United Kingdom. It has over 40
subsidiaries spread across the globe who have engaged with over 200 clients
2. Unitech has significant experience and very strong track record. Some of its
• It has constructed six million cubic meters of storage tanks and terminal
capacity
mechanical, civil and insulation work capability for cryogenic LPG and LNG
follows
Oil and gas projects including pipelines, storage tanks and terminals and
process facilities
• Infrastructure projects
1. Its core capabilities lie in process and plant engineering, heavy civil
19
4
geographic which enable it to decrease dependence on any one economy or
project activity.
3. Unitech enjoys long term relationship with its reputed clients which reward it
with repeat orders from several of its domestic and international clients
services.
4. Unitech has a highly qualified and motivated employee base with a strong
indirectly over 3600 full time employees and 6,200 strong temporary contract
labor for their projects. There promoters has more than 25 years of experience
Banmore which is in Madhya Pradesh and other which serves as base camp
19
5
and yard in Sungaipuran, Indonesia. Another advantage it sees owning and
Weakness
countries it operates around the world which may be very different from what
is prevailing in India.
2. The company has grown by leaps and bounds in last few years which may
strength and size of previous projects. Recently in the energy and petroleum
Though contracts are obtained through competitive bidding process but pre-
projects with potential high margins may hinder from taking up such large
complex projects.
19
6
5. Unitech is entering into a number of new businesses which require significant
expense and financial and operational resources. Its entry into real estate
oil and gas sector may not prove unprofitable because of limited experience.
margins in the industry buts increasing level of exposure to road projects has
depreciation costs and interest’s costs keep its net margins at the same level
Opportunities
2. Has vast international presence in pipeline projects related to oil and gas
sector
3. Increase in the level of road investments and BOT road projects will help in
19
7
4. Around the world like United States and whole of Europe has opted for 10%
5 years. Brazil,
5. Unitech can take up to 100 meter water depth in offshore pipeline. There is a
6. As oil has crossed $100 mark there will be large quantum of money coming
into oil producing nations mainly Middle East countries which will translate
into multiple increases in its own capex in Oil and Gas sector.
7. There are huge opportunities in power with a ambitious target growth of 12%
in the eleventh plan. Also with Indo-US nuclear deal in the pipeline. Unitech
Threats
investments
3. Global and domestic hydrocarbon capital expenditure are prone to oil prices.
19
8
4. As a major portion of revenue of the company is from outside India. Sharp
especially its operation in the Caspian region and the Middle East. During
19
9
CHAPTER 6
20
0
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
20
1
The strength, resilience and stability of the country’s external sector are
capital inflows.
The current account has followed an inverted “U” shaped pattern during
the period from 2001-02 to 2006-07, rising to a surplus of over 2 per cent
reform average, with a current account deficit of 1.2 per cent in 2005-06
For the Educomp solutions Company is likely to post very high growth rate
for a long time. Revenue figures are expected to show a CAGR of 70% for
the period 2009-2011, 35% for the period 2011-2014 and 20% for the
period 2014-2016.
We forecast strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see
between 30-35%.
20
2
For the Icici Bank NII grew 2% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to Rs19.9b. Loans
NPA’s.As there is an increase in gross profit & EPS, it shows that the
from Rs. 10.1 bn in Q2’08 to Rs. 9.8 bn in Q2’09, due to the slowdown in
likely to fall but remain at higher levels. Huge land bank spread across
Total Income has increased from Rs 14562.20 million for the quarter
ended December 31, 2007 to Rs 18228.70 million for the quarter ended
December 31, 2008.Tata Power will hold 74% equity and IOCL will hold
20
3
So with this we find that market sentiments and the announcements
effects the share prices of the companies. and equity research helps to
find out the support and resistence level of the share prices and help us to
ANNEXURE
20
4
ANNEXURE
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
BALANCE SHEET
Educomp In Rs.
Solutions Cr.
Balance Sheet
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Sources Of Funds
Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
20
5
Total Liabilities
Application Of Funds
Depreciation
Progress
Balance
Advances
Deffered Credit 0 0 0 0 0
Expenses
Total Assets
20
6
Book Value (Rs) 38.15 52.3 56.59 71.75 166.31
Educomp In Rs.
Solutions Cr.
Profit & Loss account
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Income
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Stock Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0
Expenditure
20
7
Expenses
Expenses
Expenses
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Items)
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Tax
(Rs)
20
8
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Cr.
Cash Flow
20
9
Net Profit Before Tax
Activities
Investing Activities
Financing Activities
Equivalents
Equivalents
21
0
ICICI BANK
BALANCE SHEET
Cr.
Balance Sheet
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
7 9 5 2
8 8 2 8 1
Provisions
2 5 2 8 6
Assets
Cash & Balances with RBI 6,344.90 8,934.37 18,706.88 29,377.53 17,536.33
21
1
Money at Call
1 0 8 5
4 1
0 5 1 7 6
Total Assets
8 8 6 2
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09
Income
Expenditure
21
2
Employee Cost 737.41 1,082.29 1,616.75 2,078.90 1,971.70
Expenses
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Contingencies
Total Expenses
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Appropriations
Reserves
Reserves
21
3
Proposed 723.06 865.83 1,054.27 1,377.37 1,375.79
Dividend/Transfer to Govt
Sheet
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09
Activities
21
4
Investing Activities
Financing Activities
Equivalents
Equivalents
Equivalents
UNITECH
21
5
BALANCE SHEET
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
Unitech
Balance Sheet In Rs. Cr.
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Sources Of Funds
Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
Application Of Funds
Depreciation
Progress
21
6
Inventories 26.66 29.3 32.26 32.77 13.66
Balance
Advances
Deffered Credit 0 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0
Expenses
Contingent Liabilities
21
7
PROFIT AND LOSS
Unitech In Rs.
Cr.
Profit & Loss
account
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Income
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Expenditure
21
8
Power & Fuel Cost 0 0 0 0 0
Expenses
Expenses
Expenses
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Total Expenses
Items)
21
9
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Tax
(lakhs)
(Rs)
Unitech In Rs
Cr.
Cash Flow
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Operating Activities
22
0
Net Cash (used in)/from -26.08 -93.24 -121.05 -117.32 -771.21
Investing Activities
Financing Activities
(decrease)/increase In
Equivalents
Equivalents
Equivalents
22
1
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books
Websites
• www.economictimes.com
• www.fmc.gov.in
• www.rbi.gov.in
• www.sebi.gov.in
• www.moneycontrol.com
• www.nseindia.com
• www.bseindia.com
22
2