"Stock Price Analysis of Different Sectors" Project Report: of Master of Business Administration

“STOCK PRICE ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT
SECTORS”
PROJECT REPORT
2009
Submitted for the partial fulfilment of the

requirement for the award
Of
MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
SUBMITTED BY
AVDHESH KUMAR SHARMA
ROLL NO. 0823170010
UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF

External: Miss Anuja Shukla
Internal: Mr. Gaurav Bansal
Department Of Management
1
R.D.ENGINEERING COLLEGE, DUHAI,
GHAZIABAD
DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this project report prepared in lieu of a compulsory
paper for the partial fulfilment of Management of Business Administration
(Finance and Marketing) is my original work which I have submitted in
Gulf Bulls Securities Pvt. Ltd. to my guide Ms Anuja Shukla. No part of it
has been submitted to any other university or organisation.
All the information and data in my project are authentic to the best of my
knowledge and taken from reliable sources.
Avdhesh Kumar Sharma
2
Acknowledgement
Project work is never the work of an individual. It is more a combination of
views, ideas, suggestions, contribution and work involving many
individuals.
I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Gulf Bulls Securities’
management for giving me an opportunity to be a part of their esteem
organization and enhance my knowledge by granting permission to do my
summer training project under their guidance.
I am grateful to Ms. Anuja Shukla, my guide, for his invaluable guidance
and cooperation during the course of the project. He provided me with his
assistance and support whenever needed that has been instrumental in
completion of this project.

3
The project could not have completed without the guidance of Mr. Vishal
Thakur, Ms. Neha Goel, Ms. Anuja Shukla and last but not the least Mr.
Mandeep. Their continuous guidance helped me immensely during the
project work
Avdhesh Kumar Sharma
Preface
The stock market in India has been a kind of mysterious place for many
people who think that the persons investing their money in the market are
sort of gambling on their money. There is usual misconception in the
minds of the common man that because of the volatility of the market,
their hard earned money is not safe in the stock market.
4
However, this fear can be checked by proper research on a share
someone is interested to invest on. The market doesn’t behave in an
arbitrate manner but certain trends are repeated over the time again and
again. It is quite responsive towards the economic activities taking place
in India as well as around the whole world.
The broad objective of the project is to understand the behavioural
pattern of the shares of IndiaBulls Financial Services Ltd. over the past
one year and a half so that one can understand the movement of the
share on a particular trading session as well as the impact of news coming
from different quarters of the market.
The project will provide a tool in the hands of the investors to take the
decisions regarding their investment in the shares of IBFSL that is, when
to buy or when to sell the shares. It will also give them the answer that
whether it is right time to invest in this share or not, and what could be
the best time to invest in this share. project deals with the analysis of
different companies of different sectors.
My project is divided into different chapters and they are
given as under:
5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
6
SR PARTICULARS PAG
. E
NO NO.
.
1 Executive Summary
2 Objective of Study
3 Research Methodology
4 Chapter 1
• Introduction of the company
Chapter 3
5 • Research An Introduction
 Technical Analysis
 Fundamental Analysis
Chapter 5
• Analysis of Different Indian

sectors and its leading
companies
 IT
 Banking
 Real Estate
7 Chapter 6
• Conclusion
8 • Annexure
Bibliography
7
8
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Indian economy remained on a high growth trajectory with renewed
vigour and greater participation from various sectors of the economy. The
dynamism is expected to gather further momentum with policy initiatives,
thrust on building infrastructure, emphasis on rural and agricultural
reforms that would further stimulate demand, growth and employment.
It seems that corporate India’s growth is likely to remain robust, given the
massive capital expenditure plans of Indian companies. 14 key
manufacturing sectors reported 26.5% increase in capital work-in-
progress on a y-o-y basis, thus indicating strong business outlook and
confidence.
9
I have introduced a new section in this year’s edition, viz., Insights. Some
major findings contained therein are as follows:
It is the PSU companies that rule the roost in terms of market
capitalisation. The 54 PSU companies featured in the Top 500 list
command a high share of 25.2% in the total market capitalisation of the
Top 500 Companies.
The report describes various aspects of the Stocks and focus on the
various opportunities and threats that have emerged as a result of
change in the regulatory environment. The objective of the project is
to find out the risk and return perspective of the stocks of different
sectors.
In doing so I have used various selection techniques. For the
purpose of selecting the company’s products we have used the main
selection analysis is Technical analysis and fundamental analysis for ICICI
Bank, Educomp Solutions and Unitech. The intention behind such an
analysis is that to analyze the competitive advantage of the company by
knowing the resistance and support level for the company’s which is
particularly helpful in identifying areas of development. I have conducted
a detailed study of various real economy snapshots so as to consider the
growth opportunities of the economy as a whole.
10
Then I have done the fundamental analysis to predict the stocks
behaviour in future moreover the technical analysis for stocks return for
the above mentioned stocks, the Also I have done the Financial Strength
Analysis of the company’s because to know how it is efficient in financial
way .
In this section I have done the full study of the ICICI, Educomp Solutions
and Unitech.
I have also done swot analysis for these three companies with strengths,
weakness, opportunity and threats of each of the company’s. The swot
analysis would also provide an overview to an investor regarding the
future certainty and uncertainty.
At last I have done an analysis of these stocks and had predicted the
stock prices for future and the support as well as resistance level so that it
can be taken up by the investors to decide the time and date for their
investment to have greater returns at their end.
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OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
As per the requirement of course I have prepared this report.
• To track the share prices of the companies.
• To study the share price movements.
• To analyze the balance sheet and income statement in order to
know the position of the companies.
• To do the fundamental analysis of the companies taken for
comparison in order to know the financial position of the
companies.
• To do the technical analysis.
• To do the swot analysis.
In this study I had to present an introduction to the Indian economy and
study of different Indian sectors Data for companies were collected and
analyzed. A Comparison of stock market index and stock prices of these
12
companies was done and it was clarified how much change is there with a
change is Sensex. The study includes a SWOT analysis of different
companies, which points out the strength, weakness, opportunity and
threats, with a focus on the Indian market.
Need of the study was to get an incite into the different sectors and future
market prospects. This study was required because when it comes to
business generation and growth in this highly competitive world, each of
such companies need to understand the market they want to enter, the
competitors, know the market potential and future growth prospects. It
becomes more complex when it comes to dealing with someone’s hard
earned money. One needs to generate trust and give better services as
compared to their competitors. This study will be of importance for Gulf
Bulls as they will come to know about the different sector, how it
functions, and trends in the sector etc. Also it is very important to know
the liquidity and returns of the market one is planning to enter. So a
research was done to know the volumes they generate, the type of client
they have, the type projects they have, the type of segment they need to
enter or come out, the growth that they require for there order book so
that they sustain in this market scenario, their strategy to trade, liquidity
13
and investments made by them. This will provide an insight to formulate
business strategies for better growth.
METHODOLOGY
An Introduction
14
Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can
also define research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent
information on a specific topic. Some people consider research as a
movement, a movement from the known to the unknown. It is actually a
voyage of discovery. We all possess the vital instinct of inquisitiveness for
things. When the unknown confronts us, we wonder and our
inquisitiveness make us probe and attain full understanding of the
unknown. This inquisitiveness is the mother of all knowledge and the
method, which a person employs for obtaining this knowledge of whatever
the unknown, can be termed as research.
Research is an academic activity and as such the term should be used in a
technical sense. Research is an original contribution to the existing stock
of knowledge made for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the
help of study, observation, comparison, and experiment. In short, the
search for knowledge through objective and systematic method of finding
solutions to a problem is research.
Significance of research
It is very important to understand the importance of research to perform it
better and also to appreciate a research work. So I thought of stating the
significance of research.
15
“All progress is born of inquiry. Doubt is better than overconfidence, for it
leads to inquiry and inquiry leads to invention” is a famous Hudson Maxim
in context of which the significance of research can be well understood.
Increased amount of research makes progress possible. Research
inculcates scientific and inductive thinking and it promotes the
development of logical habits of thinking and organization.
The role of research in several fields of applied economics and finance,
whether related to business or to the economy as a whole, has greatly
increased in modern times. The increasingly complex nature of business
and government has focused attention on the use of research in solving
operational problems. Research, as an aid to policy formation, has gained
added importance, both from the government and the business houses.
Research Methodology
The objective of this research project was to provide Gulf Bulls Securities
with analysis of different sectors with a detailed feasibility report in
respect to order growth and trend nationally and internationally.
The section on parameters that affect the different sector required
secondary data collection and then use of valuation ratio for the
estimating the revenue which they can generate in future like steel prices
16
to sales ratio, cement prices to sales ratio along with independent
variables like inflation, interest rates etc.
One of the section is to establish ratio analysis and order book analysis,
for which data relating to the companies traded at Sensex, Nse etc was
collected and spot and risk factor has been associated. Price of raw
material and sales trend were also established. Beta factor of each
company was studied.
Seasonal variations in order book for each of company was calculated
from the secondary data collected and analysis has been done as to how
much are the seasonality in each of these stocks
Last section of my research was to do valuation ratio as a common factor
indicating the future prospectus of the companies. In this study, mainly
two types of data collection techniques were used i.e. with the help of
research analyst and secondly with the help of research report given by
project guide at the company. In both the methods, the analysis has been
done for the sector. It was taken care that I refrained from expressing my
own opinion. All the data collected was made in such a way that it acted
as a structured instrument.
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Limitations
• The biggest problem that I faced during this research study was
that of data collection.
• Calculation of Valuation ratios was another problem
• In my research it was difficult to get persons at company to give
out information regarding their order of the project and value of
uncompleted project.
18
• Year ending period and my survey period were same, creating a
problem, as people were scared to give required data. They said
they would have to consult their C.A regarding it.
• During the working days my sir has to submit daily research
report so during the market time he was not able to attention to
me so I have to wait when I have any query regarding the report.
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CHAPTER 1
COMPANY
PROFILE
20
COMPANY’S PROFILE
About company
Gulf Bulls Securities Pvt. Ltd. is a company registered under the
Companies Act, 1956 .It is a professionally managed group headed by the
directors, having vast experience in the stock market.
The company is serving a diverse customer base of institutional and retail
investors The Company has a balanced mix of revenues from emerging
markets and is well positioned to leverage the growth potential offered by
these markets.
GBS provides investors a robust platform to trade in Equities in NSE and
BSE, and derivatives in NSE. The company has a worldwide vision and it
along with its associates is currently providing state of the art stock
broking services through all the major stock exchanges, trading through
NSE & BSE, depository services through CDSL and all the services are
available under the one roof. With its ability to evolve with the changing
21
environment the Company has been able to put itself to the forefront of
stock broking activities. With its network spreading across various parts of
India, it has made a distinct mark among the stock broking houses and
high net worth corporate as well as individuals.
The company offers financial information, analysis, investment guidance,
news & views, which are designed to meet the requirements of everyone
from a beginner to a savvy and well-informed trader.
“Our vision is to grow our business and make our presence across the
world.”
“Our mission is to create and introduce the new definition of investments
around the globe.”
Management Team:
Name Designation
Mr. Vivek Rana Chairman / Managing Director
Mr Rajiv Balhara Director
Mr. Kuldeep Sharma Director
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Mr. Yajur Chaudhary Director
Mr. Rajneesh Aggarwal Director
Mr. Vipin Kumar Director
Mr. Gajraj Singh Director
Mr. Anil Kaushik Director
Prominent feature of Gulf Bulls Securities
• Strong research department located at Faridabad office.
• Well structured infrastructure for trading.
• Highly skilled and experience staff.
• Dedicated user friendly website for its customers, named
www.monepore.com and www.moneyporeexpress.com.
• Money pore express, software developed by Gulf Bulls Securities
provides retail investors better opportunity to trade at home and
that to at greater speed and convenience.
23
Areas of Expertise
Gulf Bulls offers real time trading opportunities on the NSE. It also offers
depository and online services to clients for account accessing and
information through its online portal catering to the needs of mobile
trader as well as the net savvy investor. Gulf Bulls offers state-of –the–art
online trading through its website (www.gulfbullsecurity.co.in). Regular
updates during trading hours, and access to information, analysis and
research, and a range of monitoring tools is available. The company has
steadily building up a comprehensive portfolio of products and services
apart from conventional broking. High speed anywhere trading through
the net, online depository services, commodities trading and retail debt
products are increasingly areas of special emphasis for the company.
Research
Gulf Bulls is a research driven organization. Daily Call is its morning
newsletter that takes a trading call on the market and gives a ringside
view of the overnight national and international events. Customers get
real time feeds on news, comments and recommendations through instant
messaging that are of utmost essence to the serious trader. The Weekly
Watch delivered to all the clients every Saturday evening is the most
comprehensive reports of its kind. The report summons developments
over the past week, major economic talking points, summary on
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derivatives markets, technical outlook and trading ideas for the
forthcoming week and fundamental investments with an exhaustive
research report for a medium to long term horizon. On the commodities
side, it releases daily and weekly reports providing outlook on
international agri-commodities.
Mutual Funds
Gulf Bulls provides a host of services for customers investing in mutual
funds. It offers wide range of services like, rankings of different mutual
fund schemes, list of new schemes issued in the market, interviews with
fund managers, InstaNAV – a quick search based application that enables
customers to get the related information about the desired scheme,
Primer – a brief description about mutual funds, RBI procedural guidelines
and a Risk Profiler – which helps the customers in ascertaining one’s own
profile, thus minimizing risk.
Advisory Services
Apart from broking business, Gulf Bulls is also engaged in offering
advisory services of investments into mutual funds, primary market, life
insurance and other small saving products. The distribution services add
up to their broking business and are serviced by experts at each location.
The business is supported by an efficient research and back office team.
Gulf Bulls’s set of diligent advisors helps its customers plan and get more
25
out of one’s money. The schemes include, fixed income, bank fixed
deposits, company fixed deposits, small savings schemes, tax saving
schemes and
NRI deposits. Gulf Bulls also provides tax planning services – where a list
of tax saving schemes and a forum for Q&A where the queries are
answered by the tax advisors; and an NRI advisory body, where it
provides information for NRIs in helping them makes judicious investment
decisions.
Loan Advisory
Gulf Bulls also provides advisory services on the loan schemes of certain
banks to its customers. The schemes include, home loans, adhoc loans,
professional loans, educational loans, consumer loans and auto loans. Its
advisory services are classified into four categories namely; Primers –
giving an overview about all schemes that are available, Calculators –
where it helps the customers with quick calculators, Jargon Buster – a
translator and Digital Advisors – which help in making decisions easy. It
has entered into partnership with many leading banks in providing this
facility.
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Performance
The Company registered strong growth during the first 10 months of
2007. The company added 26,460 domestic customer accounts in 2007 as
compared to 25,295 in 2006. Number of terminals, sub brokers and
employees almost doubled during this period.
Growth Areas
Gulf Bulls has diversified its business to other areas such as portfolio
management services and is looking forward at opening overseas
branches. It plans to introduce company fixed deposits and merchant
banking to its current offerings. It is also aiming at increasing their
institutional client base, acquiring new business/brokerage firms and also
entering into joint venture operations in the near future.
Membership
Cash Market: NSE
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Products offered
Currently Gulf Bulls Securities and Stock broking is offering following
product bouquet to people who wish to deal in stock market
Offline
Demat : Rs. 500
Rs.100 : Stamp duty
Rs.200 : Advance Delivery
Rs.200 : AMC
Online
Online trading account : Rs. 750
Online trading account
Online Software Moneypore Express
Online package : Rs. 500 (+ Rs 5000 margin)
Demat
Online trading account
Online Software Moneypore Express

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SWOT Analysis
Strength
• Highly skilled and experienced staff.
• Excellent infrastructure
• Branches all over India
• Strong research department, headed by V K Sharma
• Various investment services under one roof
Weakness
• In adequate center within the city, vis-à-vis its major competitors
• No mass marketing programme
Opportunity
• Growing investment in capital market from retail investors
• Development of online trading as the speed of communication has
increased
• Tapping young investors and making them their loyal client
• Initiate awareness about stock market and initiate classes for
people interested to trade but are anxious because of their lack of
knowledge.
29
Threat
• Bigger players like Reliance entering market
• Reducing brand loyalty among clients
• Security threat in online trading
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH AN
INTRODUCTION
30
RESEARCH an Introduction
Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can
also define research as a scientific and systematic search for pertinent
information on a specific topic. Some people consider research as a
movement, a movement from the known to the unknown. It is actually a
voyage of discovery. We all possess the vital instinct of inquisitiveness for
things. When the unknown confronts us, we wonder and our
inquisitiveness make us probe and attain full understanding of the
unknown. This inquisitiveness is the mother of all knowledge and the
method, which a person employs for obtaining this knowledge of whatever
the unknown, can be termed as research.
Research is an academic activity and as such the term should be used in a
technical sense. Research is an original contribution to the existing stock
of knowledge made for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the
help of study, observation, comparison, and experiment. In short, the
search for knowledge through objective and systematic method of finding
solutions to a problem is research.
Significance of research
It is very important to understand the importance of research to perform it
better and also to appreciate a research work. So I thought of stating the

31
significance of research. “All progress is born of inquiry. Doubt is better
than overconfidence, for it leads to inquiry and inquiry leads to invention”
is a famous Hudson Maxim in context of which the significance of research
can be well understood. Increased amount of research makes progress
possible. Research inculcates scientific and inductive
thinking and it promotes the development of logical habits of thinking and
organization.
The role of research in several fields of applied economics and finance,
whether related to business or to the economy as a whole, has greatly
increased in modern times. The increasingly complex nature of business
and government has focused attention on the use of research in solving
operational problems. Research, as an aid to policy formation, has gained
added importance, both from the government and the business houses.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical analysis is simply the study of prices as reflected on price
charts. Technical analysis assumes that current prices should
represent all known information about the markets. Prices not only
32
reflect intrinsic facts, they also represent human emotion and the
pervasive mass psychology and mood of the moment. Prices are, in the
end, a function of supply and demand. However, on a moment to moment
basis, human emotions…fear greed, panic, hysteria, elation, etc. also
dramatically effect prices. Markets may move based upon people’s
expectations, not necessarily facts. A market "technician" attempts to
disregard the emotional component of trading by making his
decisions based upon chart formations, assuming that prices reflect
both facts and emotion. Analysts use their technical research to decide
whether the current market is a BULL MARKET or a BEAR MARKET.
1. STOCK CHARTS
A stock chart is a simple two-axis (X-Y) plotted graph of price and time.
Each individual equity, market and index listed on a public exchange
has a chart that
illustrates this movement of price over time. Individual data plots for
charts can be made using the CLOSING price for each day. The plots are
connected together in a single line, creating the graph. Also, a
combination of the OPENING, CLOSING, HIGH and/or LOW prices for that
market session can be used for the data plots. This second type of data is
called a PRICE BAR. Individual price bars are then overlaid onto the
graph, creating a dense visual display of stock movement.

33
Stock charts can be drawn in two different ways. An ARITHMETIC chart
has equal vertical distances between each unit of price. A
LOGARITHMIC chart is a percentage growth chart.
2. TRENDS
The stock chart is used to identify the current trend. A trend reflects the
average rate of change in a stock's price over time. Trends exist in all time
frames and all markets. Trends can be classified in three ways: UP, DOWN
or RANGEBOUND. In an uptrend, a stock rallies often with intermediate
periods of consolidation or movement against the trend. In doing so, it
draws a series of higher highs and higher lows on the stock chart.
In an uptrend, there will be a POSITIVE rate of price change over
time. In a downtrend, a stock declines often with intermediate periods of
consolidation or movement against the trend. In doing so, it draws a
series of
lower highs and lower lows on the stock chart. In a downtrend, there
will be a NEGATIVE rate of price change over time. Range bound
price swings back and forth for long periods between easily seen upper
and lower limits. There is no apparent direction to the price movement on
the stock chart and there will be LITTLE or NO rate of price change. Trends
34
tend to persist over time. A stock in an uptrend will continue to rise until
some change in value or a condition occurs. Declining stocks will
continue to fall until some change in value or conditions occur.
Chart readers try to locate TOPS and BOTTOMS, which are those
points where a rally or a decline ends. Taking a position near a top
or a bottom can be very profitable. Trends can be measured
using TRENDLINES. Very often a straight line can be drawn UNDER three
or more pullbacks from rallies or OVER pullbacks from declines. When
price bars then return to that trend line, they tend to find SUPPORT or
RESISTANCE and bounce off the line in the opposite direction.
3. VOLUME
Volume measures the participation of the crowd. Stock charts
display volume through individual HISTOGRAMS below the price
pane. Often these will show green bars for up days and red bars for down
days. Investors and traders can measure buying and selling interest
by watching how many up or down days in a row occur and how
their volume compares with days in which price moves in the opposite
direction.
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Stocks that are bought with greater interest than sold are said to
be under ACCUMULATION. Stocks that are sold with great interest
than bought are said to be under DISTRIBUTION. Accumulation and
distribution often LEAD price movement. In other words, stocks under
accumulation often will rise some time after the buying begins.
Alternatively, stocks under distribution will often fall some time after
selling begins. It takes volume for a stock to rise but it can fall of its own
weight. Rallies require the enthusiastic participation of the crowd.
When a rally runs out of new participants, a stock can easily fall. Investors
and traders use indicators such as ON BALANCE VOLUME to see
whether participation is lagging (behind) or leading (ahead) the price
action. Stocks trade daily with an average volume that determines
their LIQUIDITY. Liquid stocks are very easy for traders to buy and
sell. Liquid stocks require very high SPREADS (transaction costs) to buy or
sell and often cannot be eliminated quickly from a portfolio. Stock chart
analysis does not work well on illiquid stocks.
4. PATTERNS AND INDICATORS
How can one organize the endless stream of stock chart data into a
logical format? Charts allow investors and traders to look at past and
36
present price action in order to make reasonable predictions and wise
choices. It is a highly visual medium. This one fact separates it from
the colder world of value-based analysis. The stock chart activates
both left-brain and right-brain functions of
logic and creativity. So it's no surprise that over the last century
two forms of analysis have developed that focus along these lines of
critical examination.
The oldest form of interpreting charts is PATTERN ANALYSIS. This
method gained popularity through both the writings of Charles Dow
and Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, a classic book written on
the subject just after World War II. The newer form of interpretation
is INDICATOR ANALYSIS, a math-oriented examination in which the
basic elements of price and volume are run through a series of
calculations in order to predict where price will go next. Pattern analysis
gains its power from the tendency of charts to repeat the same bar
formations over and over again.
These patterns have been categorized over the years as having a
bullish or bearish bias. Some well-known ones include HEAD
37
and SHOULDERS, TRIANGLES, RECTANGLES, DOUBLE TOPS, DOUBLE
BOTTOMS and FLAGS. Also, chart landscape features such as GAPS and
TRENDLINES are said to have great significance on the future course of
price action. Indicator analysis uses math calculations to measure the
relationship of current price to past price action. Almost all indicators
can be categorized as TREND-FOLLOWING or OSCILLATORS. Popular
trend-following indicators include MOVING AVERAGES, ON BALANCE
VOLUME and MACD. Common oscillators include STOCHASTICS,
RSI and RATE OF CHANGE. Trend-following indicators react much
more slowly than oscillators. They look deeply into the rear view mirror
to locate the future. Oscillators react very quickly to short-term changes
in price, flipping back and forth between OVERBOUGHT and
OVERSOLD levels.
Both patterns and indicators measure market psychology. The core
of investors and traders that make up the market each day tend to act
with a herd mentality as price rises and falls. This "crowd" tends to
develop known characteristics that repeat themselves over and over
again. Chart interpretation using these two important analysis tools
uncovers growing stress within the crowd that should eventually translate
into price change.
5. SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
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The concept of SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE is essential to
understanding and interpreting stock charts. Just as a ball bounces
when it hits the floor or drops after being thrown to the ceiling,
support and resistance defines natural boundaries for rising and falling
prices. Buyers and sellers are constantly in battle mode. Support defines
that level where buyers are strong enough to keep price from falling
further. Resistance defines that level where sellers are too strong to allow
price to rise further. Support and resistance play different roles in
uptrend’s and downtrends. In an uptrend, support is where a pullback
from a rally should end. In a downtrend, resistance is where a pullback
from a decline should end. Support and resistance are created because
price has memory. Those prices where significant buyers or sellers
entered the market in the past will tend to generate a similar mix
of participants when price again returns to that level. When price pushes
above resistance, it becomes a new support level. When price falls below
support, that level
becomes resistance. When a level of support or resistance is penetrated,
price tends to thrust forward sharply as the crowd notices the BREAKOUT
and jumps in to buy
or sell. When a level is penetrated but does not attract a crowd of
buyers or sellers, it often falls back below the old support or
39
resistance. This failure is known as a FALSE BREAKOUT. Support and
resistance come in all varieties and strengths.
They most often manifest as horizontal price levels. But trend lines at
various angles represent support and resistance as well. The length
of time that a support or resistance level exists determines the
strength or weakness of that level. The strength or weakness determines
how much buying or selling interest will be required to break the
level. Also, the greater volume traded at any level, the stronger that level
will be. Support and resistance exist in all time frames and all
markets.
Levels in longer tie frames are stronger than those in shorter time
frames. The ideas of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street
Journal, form the basis of technical analysis today. The behavior patterns
that he observed apply to markets throughout the world.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is the process of looking at a business at the basic
or fundamental financial level. This type of analysis examines key ratios of
40
a business to determine its financial health and gives you an idea of the
value its stock.
Many investors use fundamental analysis alone or in combination with
other tools to evaluate stocks for investment purposes. The goal is to
determine the current worth and, more importantly, how the market
values the stock.
Earnings
It’s all about earnings. When you come to the bottom line, that’s what
investors want to know. How much money is the company making and
how much is it going to make in the future.
Earnings are profits. It may be complicated to calculate, but that’s what
buying a company is about. Increasing earnings generally leads to a
higher stock price and, in some cases, a regular dividend.
When earnings fall short, the market may hammer the stock. Every
quarter, companies report earnings. Analysts follow major companies
closely and if they fall short of projected earnings, sound the alarm. For
more information on earnings, see my article: It’s the Earnings.
41
While earnings are important, by themselves they don’t tell you anything
about how the market values the stock. To begin building a picture of how
the stock is valued you need to use some fundamental analysis tools.
These ratios are easy to calculate, but you can find most of them already
done on sites like cnn.money.com or MSN MoneyCentral.com.
These are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis. They focus on
earnings, growth, and value in the market. The tools are given belows:-
1. Earnings per Share – EPS
2. Price to Earnings Ratio – P/E
3. Projected Earning Growth – PEG
4. Price to Sales – P/S
5. Price to Book – P/B
6. Dividend Payout Ratio
7. Dividend Yield
8. Book Value
9. Return on Equity
No single number from this list is a magic bullet that will give you a buy or
sell recommendation by itself, however as you begin developing a picture
of what you want in a stock, these numbers will become benchmarks to
measure the worth of potential investments.
42
Ratio analysis
Ratio analysis is a powerful tool of financial analysis. a ratio is defined as
the “indicated quotient of two mathematical expressions” and as” the
relationship between two or more things.” in financial analysis, a ratio is
used as a benchmark for evaluating the financial position and
performance of a firm. The absolute accounting figures reported in the
financial statements do not provide a meaningful understanding of the
performance to some other relevant information. For example, Rs5 corer
net profits may look impressive, but the firm s performance can be said to
be good or bad
only when the net profit figure is related to the firm s investment. The
relationship between the two accounting figures, expressed
mathematically, is known as financial ratio. Ratio helps to summarize the
large quantities of financial performance.
Uses of ratio analysis:
• We can determine the ability of the firm to meet its current
obligations
• We determine the overall operating efficiency and performances of
the firm
• Useless in analysis of financial statements

43
• Useless in locating the week spots of the business
• Useless in comparison of performance
• The extent to which the firm has used its long –term solvency by
borrowing
• The efficiency with which the firm is utilizing its assets in
generating sales
• Useful in simplifying accounting figures
• Useful In forecasting purpose
• Weakness in financial structure on account of incorrect policies in
the present are revealed through accounting ratios
• The comparisons can be made on the basis of ratios
Limitations of accounting ratios:
• Ratios may be worked out for insignificant and unrelated figures
• Price level changes affect ratio analysis
• Difficult to forecast future on the basis of the past facts
• Give false result if the ratios are based on incorrect accounting
• Ignore qualitative policies
• No single standard ratio for comparison
• Limited utility if based on single set of figures.
Financial ratios provide the basic for answering some important questions
concerning financial (well being) of the firm.
44
How liquid is the firm? Liquidity refers to the firms’ ability to
meet maturing obligating and to convert assets into cash. This factor is
very important to the firms’ creditors.
Is management generating sufficient profits from the
firm’s assets? Primary purpose for purchasing an asset is to produce

profits, the analysts often seek an indication of the adequacy of the profits
being realized if the level of profits appears insufficient in relation to the
investment, an investigation into the reasons for the inferior returns is in
order.
How does the firms’ management finance its
investment? These decisions have a direct impact upon the returns

provided to the common stockholders.
Are the stockholders receiving sufficient return on
their investment? The objective of financial manager is to
maximize the value of the firm’s common stock, and level of returns being
received by the inventors relative to their investment is a key factor in
determining the value.

45
STANDARDS OF COMPARISON
The ratio analysis involves comparison for a useful interpretation of the
financial statements. Standards of comparison may consist of:
• PAST RATIOS: i.e. ratios calculated from the past financial
statements of the same firm:
• PROJECTED RATIOS: i.e. ratios developed using the
projected, or pro forma, financial statements of the same
firm;
• COMPETITORS’ RATIO: i.e. ratios of some selected firms,
especially most progressive and successful competitor, at
the same point in time, and
• INDUSTRY RATIOS: i.e. ratios of the industries to which the
firms belongs
CLASSIFICATION OF RATIOS
46
Ratios can be classified from various points of view .In reality; the
classification depends on the objectives and available data. Ratio may be
based on figures in the balance sheet .in the profit & loss account in both
Thus they may be worked out on the basis of figures contained in the
financial statements.
In the view of the requirement of the various users (e.g. short term
creditors, long term creditors, management, investors etc….) of the ratio
may classify the ratio as follows-
1. INCOME STATEMENT RATIOS:-
These ratios are calculated on the basis of the terms of income statement
only e.g. gross profit ratio, stock turnover rationed
2. POSITION STATEMENT RATIOS:-
These ratios are calculated on the basis of the figures of the figures of
position statement only e.g. current ratio, debt equity ratio etc.
47
3. INTER STATEMENT RATIO OR COMPOSITE RATIO:-
These ratios are based on the figures of income statement as well as
position statement e.g. fixed assets turnover ratios net profit to capital
employed etc
CHAPTER 5
48
ANALYSIS OF
DIFFERENT INDIAN
SECTORS & ITS
LEADING
COMPANIES
49
INDIAN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
Information technology, and the hardware and software associated with
the IT industry, are an integral part of nearly every major global industry.
The information technology (IT) industry has become of the most robust
industries in the world. IT, more than any other industry or economic
facet, has an increased productivity, particularly in the developed world,
and therefore is a key driver of global economic growth. Economies of
scale and insatiable demand from both consumers and enterprises
characterize this rapidly growing sector.
The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) explains the
“information technology” as encompassing all possible aspects of
information systems based on computers.
Both software development and the hardware involved in the IT industry
include everything from computer systems, to the design,
implementation, study and development of IT and management systems.
Owing to its easy accessibility and the wide range of IT products available,
the demand for IT services has increased substantially over the years. The
IT sector has emerged as a major global source of both growth and
employment.
50
Features of the IT Industry at a Glance
• Economies of scale for the information technology industry are high. The
marginal cost of each unit of additional software or hardware is insignificant
compared to the value addition that results from it.
• Unlike other common industries, the IT industry is knowledge-based.
• Efficient utilization of skilled labor forces in the IT sector can help an
economy achieve a rapid pace of economic growth.
• The IT industry helps many other sectors in the growth process of the
economy including the services and manufacturing sectors.
The role of the IT Industry
The IT industry can serve as a medium of e-governance, as it assures easy
accessibility to information. The use of information technology in the
service sector improves operational efficiency and adds to transparency.
It also serves as a medium of skill formation.
51
MAJOR STEPS TAKEN FOR PROMTION OF IT INDUSTRY
Domain of the IT Industry
A wide variety of services come under the domain of the information
technology industry. Some of these services are as follows:
• Systems architecture
• Database design and development
• Networking
• Application development
• Testing
• Documentation
• Maintenance and hosting
• Operational support
• Security services
52
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
Company description
Educomp Solutions Ltd, formerly Educomp Datamatics Limited, was
incorporated in 994 and is based in New Delhi, India. It is India's
largest market-listed educational service provider mainly focused on
the K-12 space.
Educomp group serves over 19,000 schools and 9.4 million learners
53
and educators across the world. Company operates private schools
across various cities and also partners with various state governments.
It has 27 offices worldwide. In addition, the Company operates through
its various subsidiaries including authorGEN, Threebrix eServices,
Learning.com, USA, AsknLearn Pte Ltd, Singapore and via its associates
such as Savvica in Canada.
The company has three primary business segments :-
1. Licensing of tools that help existing education system to
Move to a higher standard of delivery.
2. Direct Intervention - running schools, pre-schools and tutoring
classes,
online
delivery etc.
1. Post K-12 initiatives such as vocational and professional education.
Educomp's main business is developing and licensing digital
lessons, which are uploaded onto servers and provided to schools. It
also trains teachers (75,000 in the last quarter), provides vocational
training to students with courses such as
54
accounting and marketing, and offers online and in-person tutoring. It
runs eight K-12 schools. It has joined up in January with New
Delhi real estate developer Ansal Properties & Infrastructure to
start 25 private schools in new townships. It aims to start 150
schools over the next three years.
Educomp's big money-maker is Smartclass, a range of interactive
digital lessons with animation and graphics that's marketed mainly to
private schools as they have deeper pockets than public schools. The
multimedia lessons-- 16,000 so far--are based on the different
curricula in place across the country and use 12 of the country's
Languages.
Key Developments during 1HFY2009
• Smart Class: Company has covered 27 cities with total plan of
80 cities. EBIT margins for this business more than 50%.
• Margins for ICT improved to 35% from 27%
earlier, however such margins are unsustainable in
the long run, and are likely to settle around 20%.
• Educomp achieved growth rate of 700% on its education portal
Mathguru.com on paying customers.

55
• Margins for retail business improved from 41% to 71%
• Received financial closure for Rs 725cr of debt for its K-12 business.
• Debtor days for company have come down from 179 days to
145 days.
Important Agreements Made by the Educomp Solution Pvt.Ltd.
• The first seven “Millennium Schools” (as defined below) are
launched, with Edu Manage (as defined below) acting as vendor of
the Company’s products and services.
• The Company, via Edu Infra (as defined below) enters collaborative
agreements to ensure sufficient land is available for development
of new schools in accordance with its K-12 initiative.
• Edumatics signs a joint development agreement with U.S. based
company, Learning.com, to provide educators with innovative, web-
delivered curriculum solutions that support student learning.
• The Company enters into a partnership with Microsoft to make its
multimedia content curriculum available for use on the Xbox 360
platform, which
• currently has over 50,000 users worldwide. The official launch of
the product is expected during FY 2009.
• Edumatics enters into a strategic alliance and joint development
agreement with Siboney Learning Group, Inc. to create a new online
56
test preparation programme, leveraging IP, a software development
programme, manpower and the expertise of both parties.
• In May, the Company acquires a 51% strategic stake (on a fully
diluted basis) in Learning.com.
COMPANY MANAGEMENT
Shantanu Prakash Chairman & Managing Director
Jagdish Prakash Whole-Time Director
Gomal Jain Director
Sankalp Srivastava Director
Shonu Chandra Director
Sankalp Srivastava AUDIT COMMITTEE
Chairman, Independent & Non-
Executive
Subsidiaries of the company
57
Name of Company Ownership Interest
Edumatics Inc. -U.S.A. 1655 100%
Educomp Learning Private Limited –India 51%
Educomp Professional Private Limited – 100%
India
Sikhya Solutions LLC-U.S.A. 100%
Learning.com, U.S.A. 51%
The Company has seventeen subsidiaries, one associate and two planned
joint ventures. The subsidiaries focus mainly on providing services and
products directly to the individual consumer as part of the Company’s
Direct initiatives. In Fiscal 2008, Direct Initiatives contributes 14.09% of
the total consolidated revenues of Educomp.
SHARE DATA
Market Cap Rs.3647.25 Crs
Price Rs.1898.00
BSE Sensex 9459.34
BSE Code 532696
58
NSE Code INE216H01019
Face Value Rs.10
52-Week High/Low Rs.4219/1331
Index BSE 100 ,BSE Mid Cap
Group A
Listed on BSE/NSE 13th January 2006
Shareholding pattern(%)
Promoters 55.03%
FII's 6.97%
Public and Others 38.00%
59
MONTHLY HIGH AND LOW VALUE OF SHARE PRICE OF
EDUCOMP SOLUTION PVT.LTD
MONTH HIGH LOW
PRICE DATE PRICE DATE
MARCH 4,309.00 3-Mar-08 2,901.00 10-Mar-08
2008
APRIL 2008 4,219.00* 28-April-08 3,380.00 3-April-08
MAY 2008 4,185.00 23-May-08 3,651.00 12-May-08
JUNE 2008 4,065.00 2-June-08 2,569.00 30-June-08
JULY 2008 3,589.00 24-Jul-08 2,320.00 1-Jul-08
AUG 2008 3,841.00 29-Aug-08 3,099.00 1-Aug-08
SEPT 2008 4,020.00 1-Sep-08 2,985.00 18-Sep-08
OCT 2008 3,449.00 1-Oct-08 1,515.00 27-Oct-08
NOV 2008 2,825.00 5-Nov-08 1,627.00 20-Nov-08
DEC 2008 2,865.00 22-Dec-08 1,982.15 2-Dec-08
JAN 2009 2,722.00 7-Jan-09 1,375.00 21-Jan-09
FEB 2009 2,177.00 19-Feb-09 1,331.00** 6-Feb-09
MARCH 2,039.90 17-Mar-09 1,473.60 6-Mar-09
2009
*Note: It was also company 52-weeks high as on 20-march-09
** It was also company 52-weeks low as on 20-march-09
60
➢ As the high/low for every month is specified here, we can determine
the difference which is highest in percentage for the particular
month.
➢ In the month of October 2008, we can see the kind of volatility
present in share price of Educomp as it is having the difference of
48.85% within high and low in the equity report for the month.
MONTHWISE HIGHEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
INTRADAY HIGH AND LOW PRICE OF EDUCOMP
SOLUTION PVT.LTD
MONTH DATE HIGH LOW DIFFERENCE
MARCH 2008 10-Mar-08 3,504.00 2,901.00 603.00
APRIL 2008 2-Apr-08 3,950.00 3,530.00 420.00
MAY 2008 13-May-08 4,009.00 3,730.00 279.00
JUNE 2008 24-Jun-08 3,310.00 2,931.00 379.00
JULY 2008 23-Jul-08 3,579.90 3,102.00 477.90
AUG 2008 12-Aug-08 3,619.70 3,292.20 327.50
61
SEPT 2008 19-Sep-08 3,880.00 3,371.00 509.00
OCT 2008 29-Oct-08 2,400.10 1,830.00 570.10
NOV 2008 19-Nov-08 2,406.90 1,875.00 531.90
DEC 2008 18-Dec-08 2,674.00 2,305.25 368.75
JAN 2009 21-Jan-09 1,932.00 1,375.00 557.00
FEB 2009 10-Feb-09 1,968.00 1,595.00 373.00
MARCH 2009 13-Mar-09 1,793.00 1,585.15 207.85
Margin
Average Difference between the day High and day Low in the last one
year for Educomp Solution is at Rs.230 and for last three month is Rs.120
.If on an average we take 10-12% of this as a risk free return then it
comes out anywhere between Rs. 14-16 which is margin at 0% risk.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY,
FEBRUARY, AND MARCH 2009
62
January 2009
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00 Resistance
1,500.00 High
Low
1,000.00
Close
500.00
Support
0.00
Level
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
04
08
12
16
02
06
10
14
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
The stock has seen a downtrend for past few months, we have taken
Share High, Low and closing price into consideration in order to determine
the difference between Day high and day low which is significantly.
63
During January the Support level was 1750, and the Resistance level was
2105, and each time it has broken the resistance or support we have
reported a move of 30-40 point downside or upside.
F e b r u ar y 2 009
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
Hig h
1,000.00 L ow
C lose
500.00
0.00
9
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-2
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
02
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-
04
10
16
22
02
06
08
12
14
18
20
24
26
For the month of February, the stock declined due to some of the rumours
about the company accounting fudging case, but was resolved very well
by the Management . It has been able to break the previous month
support level.
64
So it has attained new its 52 week low price level. Support level was 1500
points and the Resistance level was 2050 points. Even the market
sentiments were not going with the stock.
March 2009
2,500.00
2,000.00
Resistance
1,500.00
High
1,000.00 Low
Close
500.00
0.00
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
March month remained positive for the market as a result this script
continues to achieve new high in this time frame. The gap between Low
and High was significantly low and closing price was closer to the highest
65
price on all the trading day. Support level was 1680 points and resistant
level was 1900 points.
Looking at this data we have come to the conclusion that Educomp
Solution followed market trend and investors were optimistic and Profit
booking was reasonably low.
JANUARY EQUITY CHARTING
66
W
eeklyChart5Jan-9Jan
3,000.00
2,5
00.00
2,000.00
1
,5
00.00
1
,000.00
5
00.00
0.00
1
/5/2009 1
/6/2009 1
/7
D/2
a0
t0
e9 1
/8/2009 1
/9/2009
• HIGH 2643 5-JAN-2009
• LOW 2127 9-JAN-2009
• fall of Rs.516 within a week
• Analyst recommendation: To be away from the stock price as it has
been hit hardly during the first week of January.
• Resistance Level: Rs.2650
• Support Level: Rs.2100

Share Price (Rs.)
WeeklyChart12Jan-16Jan
2,100.00
2,050.00
2,000.00
1,950.00
1,900.00
9
1,850.00
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
6
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
D
ate
1
• HIGH 2088 15 -JAN-2009
• LOW 1535 16-JAN-2009
67
• Fall of Rs.553 within a week
• Analyst recommendation: Accounts fudging allegation has made the
share price to move in the negative way.

Share Price (Rs.)
W
eeklyC
hart1
9Ja
n -2
3Ja
n
2
,50
0.0
0
2
,00
0.0
0
1
,50
0.0
0
1
,00
0.0
0
5
00.0
0
9
9
0
0
.00
0
0
2
2
2
/
/
1
9
3
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
D
ate
1
• HIGH 1796 29-JAN-2009
• LOW 1720 17-JAN-2009
• Analyst recommendation: Change occurred but minimal change
because of the downside happened in the third week.
68

Share Price (Rs.)
W
eeklyChart27Jan-30Jan
1,820.00
1,800.00
1,780.00
1,760.00
1,740.00
1,720.00
1,700.00
9
9
0
0
1,680.00
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
/
/
7
0
8
/3
/2
/2
/2
D
Eate
1
• HIGH 1825 27-JAN-2009
• LOW 1652.55 27-JAN-2009
• Rise of Rs.53 Within a week
FEBRUARY EQUITY CHARTING

SHRE PRICE
R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00 Series1
50 0.00
9
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/3
/4
/6
/5
69
2
D
ATE
• HIGH 1695 2-FEB-2009
• LOW 1394 5-FEB-2009
• fall of Rs.304 within a week
• Analyst recommendation: Allegation from ministry has pressurized and
had hit hardly during the first week of February.

SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00 S
eries1
1,000.00
50 0.00
9
9
9
9
9
0.00
0
0
0
/2
/2
2
/2
/
0
3
/9
/1
/1
/1
/1
2
D
A TE
• HIGH 2097 13-FEB-2009
• LOW 1597 09-FEB-2009
• Analyst recommendation: FII taking in the position of share price for
the time period of the second week.
• There has been gradual increase in the the share price of the stock of
educomp solution.
70
SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T
2,200.00
2,100.00
2,000.00
1,900.00 S
eries1
1,800.00
1,700.00
9
9
1,600.00
0
0
1,500.00
0
0
0
0
2
2
/2
/2
/2
/
/
7
0
6
/1
/1
/2
/1
/1
2
2
D
ATE
• HIGH 2177.50 19-FEB-2009
• LOW 1711.10 20-FEB-2009

SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 Series1
9
1,500.00
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
4
7
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
D
A TE
• HIGH 1725.00 24-FEB-2009

71
• LOW 1480.00 26-FEB-2009
MARCH EQUITY CHARTING

SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T
1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 S
eries1
1,500.00
9
1,450.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/3
/5
/6
/4
3
D
ATE
• HIGH 1605 2-MAR-2009
• LOW 1530 3-MAR-2009
• Resistance Level:Rs.1600
72
SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
1,800.00
1,700.00
1,600.00 Series1
1,500.00
9
1,400.00
9
1,300.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
3
/9
/1
/1
/1
/1
3
3
D
A TE
• HIGH 1762 13-MAR-2009
• LOW 1513 09-MAR-2009
• Rise of Rs.249 within a week

SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T
2,000.0
0
1,950.0
0
S
erie
s1
1,900.0
0
9
9
0
1,850.0
0
0
0
0
0
2
/2
2
/
/
7
0
6
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
3
D
ATE
73
• HIGH 2039.90 17-MAR-2009
• LOW 1826.00 20-MAR-2009
• Resistance Level:Rs.2000
ResearchReport
2,250.00
2,200.00
2,1
50.00
2,1
00.00
Series1
2,050.00
2,000.00
1
,950.00
1
,900.00
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/200
9
Date
• HIGH 2255.00 27-MAR-2009
• LOW 1940 13-MAR-2009
74
Financials
Good 2QFY09 results: %age share of revenue among various
segments has changed significantly.
2nd quarter saw huge increase in contribution from SmartClass and
Retail line of business, going forward SmartClass, will continue to
remain main driver for growth for next three financial years.
RATIO ANALYSIS:
75
Profitability Ratios Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06
Operating Profit 48.2 48.12 50.58
margin
Gross profit Margin 35.87 39.31 40.44
Net Profit Margin 25.51 25.54 25.89
Turnover Ratios
Inventory Turnover 185.88 32.75 30.1
Ratio
Debtor Turnover Ratio 2.29 2.16 2.08
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.27 1.67 2.76
Ratio
Solvency Ratio
Current Ratio 5.41 4.5 5.33
Debt Equity Ratio 1.28 1.09 0.11
Interest Covering Ratio 21.69 25.81 37.13
Valuation Ratio
P/E adjusted 35 110 na
P/BV 18 24 31
76
VALUATION RATIOS AS ON 31ST MARCH 2009
EPS 47.87
RETURN ON AVERAGE EQUITY 24.43%
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO 25% (02-06-2008)
P/E RATIO 50.32 (23-03-2009)
PEG RATIO 2.625
Analysis of Ratios:-
Company’s Debt Equity Ratio has increased significantly from 0.11 in
2006 to 1.27 in 2008. Company has already made financial closure of
secured debt for capital expenditure requirement for K-12 business up
to the year 2011. Company’ Interest coverage ratio remains comfortable
as most of the debt of the company is in the form of FCCB maturing in
2012. Company had high inventory turnover ratio as company has built
up inventory of installing computers for its SmartClass and ICT
business.
Future Outlook
77
• Company is poised to continue perform exceeding well
with more than 70% revenue growth for period FY09-FY11
and margins staying above 45%.
• Net Profits are expected to rise 5 fold from Rs.700 million in
2008 to 3566 million in FY11giving a CAGR of 70%.
• Company’s P/E to growth ratio is highly discounted for FY10
and FY11, as company is expected to continue its growth
trajectory of 30% for several more years.
78
Growth Outlook
Company is likely to post very high growth rate for a long time. Revenue
figures are expected to show a CAGR of 70% for the period 2009-2011, 35%
for the period 2011-2014 and 20% for the period 2014-2016. We forecast
79
strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see limited risks to
estimates given. EBIT margins are likely to improve as revenue share of
high margin retail and online business is likely to improve considerably.
We expect ROE to double and settle in the range between 30-35%.
Company has forward P/E of 7.5 for FY-2011 on constant prices while
growth rate is expected to be upwards of 30% for year FY11-FY14.
Company will continue to shine even in downturn as spending on
Education and price levels are highly resilient to economic downturns.
Another positive for this company is its short payback period on its
investment as significant business comes from long term contracts of 5
years. Company understands its strengths and challenges ahead to deal
with these challenges. Company has recognized four areas of
opportunities/ strengths as under:
1. Large market opportunity(scale)
2. Create barriers of entry for other players through strong IP
and
product differentiation.
3. High operating margins (50%+)
4. Experience and ability to execute
80
Risks:
• Due to high margins and nature of business, company might face
competition from new entrants.
• Company is in high growth phase; PEG (P/E to Growth) ratio
will be an important consideration for the stock. Any
disappointment
on Earnings Growth numbers will see a downward price
movement.
• Free cash flows to remain negative for a while; if credit
market tightens or company fails to deliver on expectation,
raising fresh
funds will be a problem.
• If government reduces spending on education, earnings and growth
potential are likely to taper down.
• Company faces huge execution risks in its Edu-Infra business.
Also company has been very aggressive in its growth plans,
both
Organic and Inorganic, and it would be very difficult to
manage such growth plans under unforeseen circumstances
(E.g.-Key
Man Risk, Death of MD/Promoter).
81
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE MONTH
Market is at the resistant level (SENSEX 10,300 points as on 15th
May, 2009) and this share price is highly correlated with market so for
next 1 month Educomp share price is expected to achieve a new
support level of 2670 points but looking at the international market we
can say that international investors are bit optimistic so market can
sustain at this high for some more time.
News from India
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo Rate and CRR,
which can keep market interest for some more time. Inflation is all
time Low (As on 14th May 2009) etc. Further stimulus announced made
by the govt. of India can uplift the market to 15000, but
4th quarters result and annual result would be the major focus for the
investor and it would also decide the direction of the market in the
upcoming months.
“Looking at the above given information we can project the
new Support Level at 2770* points and Resistance Level at
3540* points for the Second and third week of May”.
82
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR THE COMING
MONTHS OF 2009
Beginning of June news could be favourable but will the same
Support and Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our
team have done research on it and made the conclusion that it will not
be maintaining the same levels.
REASONS:
1- Market fall is expected because it cannot sustain at this level for
longer time (Market as on 2nd April, 2009).
2- Company 35-40% Revenue of total revenue comes in this
quarter alone.
3- 4th Quarter Results are expected in the month of April and it may
be good news for the investors, particular for education sector.
4- General Election is not far away and market will take some rest
during this time frame.
“Looking at the above given information I projected that the
new Support Level for the Month of June will be 2700* points
and Resistance level will be 3500* points”.
83
Why Buy: Valuations at 22x FY09E, 12.25x FY2010E and 8.5x
FY2011E, on the lower side look cheap. More over company is
expected to post CAGR of 50%+ in revenues for next four years.
EBITDA margins for 2QFY09 excluding extraordinary forex losses were
around 60%. Earnings have been forecasted keeping EBITDA on the
lower side at 45-50%.Higher EBITDA will lead to further revision in
Earnings Estimate. Continue recessionary conditions will make this
stock more attractive relatively as Education segment remains
recession proof.
Downside Risks:
1. Short Term Market sentiments (High beta of 1.4)
2. Lower Earnings than market expectations
3. Execution/Regulatory/Key Man Risks
4. Tight credit conditions will pose difficulty for
company to raise
more cash at cheaper interest rates.
84
SWOT ANALYSIS OF EDUCOMP
Strengths:
• Global R&D facility.
• Retention of the man-power is the best in the industry.
• Impressive list of clientele.
• Relatively lower receivable compared to the industry average.
Weaknesses:
• Low operating margin of the other group companies.
• Free floating stock is very less.
Opportunities:
• In the branded product category.
• In the consultancy area.
85
• In the emerging technology areas like Blue Tooth, WAP etc.
Threats:
• Increasing cost of human capital.
• Slowdown in the US economy.
• Appreciation of Indian Currency
• Will face fierce competition in the areas of e-business and ASP
services.
INDIAN BANKING SECTOR
The Indian Banking industry, which is governed by the Banking
Regulation Act of India, 1949 can be broadly classified into two major
categories, non-scheduled banks and scheduled banks. Scheduled
banks comprise commercial banks and the co-operative banks. In
terms of ownership, commercial banks can be further grouped into
nationalized banks, the State Bank of India and its group banks,
regional rural banks and private sector banks (the old/ new domestic
and foreign). These banks have over 67,000 branches spread across
the country.
86
The first phase of financial reforms resulted in the nationalization of 14
major banks in 1969 and resulted in a shift from Class banking to Mass
banking. This in turn resulted in a significant growth in the
geographical coverage of banks. Every bank had to earmark a
minimum percentage of their loan portfolio to sectors identified as
“priority sectors”. The manufacturing sector also grew during the
1970s in protected environs and the banking sector was a critical
source. The next wave of reforms saw the nationalization of 6 more
commercial banks in 1980. Since then the number of scheduled
commercial banks increased four-fold and the number of bank
branches increased eight-fold.
After the second phase of financial sector reforms and liberalization of
the sector in the early nineties, the Public Sector Banks (PSB) s found it
extremely difficult to compete with the new private sector banks and
the foreign banks. The new private sector banks first made their
appearance after the guidelines permitting them were issued in
January 1993. Eight new private sector banks are presently in
operation. These banks due to their
late start have access to state-of-the-art technology, which in turn
helps them to save on manpower costs and provide better services.
87
During the year 2000, the State Bank Of India (SBI) and its 7
associates accounted for a 25 percent share in deposits and 28.1
percent share in credit. The 20 nationalized banks accounted for 53.2
percent of the deposits and 47.5 percent of credit during the same
period. The share of foreign banks (numbering 42), regional rural
banks and other scheduled commercial banks accounted for 5.7
percent, 3.9 percent and 12.2 percent respectively in deposits and
8.41 percent, 3.14 percent and 12.85 percent respectively in credit
during the year 2000.
Current Scenario
The industry is currently in a transition phase. On the one hand, the
PSBs, which are the mainstay of the Indian Banking system are in the
process of shedding their flab in terms of excessive manpower,
excessive non Performing Assets (Npas) and excessive governmental
equity, while on the other hand the private sector banks are
consolidating themselves through mergers and acquisitions.
PSBs, which currently account for more than 78 percent of total
banking industry assets are saddled with NPAs (a mind-boggling Rs

88
830 billion in 2000), falling revenues from traditional sources, lack of
modern technology and a massive workforce while the new private
sector banks are forging ahead and rewriting the traditional banking
business model by way of their sheer innovation and service. The PSBs
are of course currently working out challenging strategies even as 20
percent of their massive employee strength
has dwindled in the wake of the successful Voluntary Retirement
Schemes (VRS) schemes.
The private players however cannot match the PSB’s great reach,
great size and access to low cost deposits. Therefore one of the means
for them to combat the PSBs has been through the merger and
acquisition (M& A) route. Over the last two years, the industry has
witnessed several such instances. For instance, Hdfc Bank’s merger
with Times Bank Icici Bank’s acquisition of ITC Classic, Gulf Bulls
Finance and Bank of Madura. Centurion Bank, Indusind Bank, Bank of
Punjab, Vysya Bank are said to be on the lookout. The UTI bank- Global
Trust Bank merger however opened a pandora’s box and brought
about the realization that all was not well in the functioning of many of
the private sector banks.
Private sector Banks have pioneered internet banking, phone banking,
anywhere banking, mobile banking, debit cards, Automatic Teller

89
Machines (ATMs) and combined various other services and integrated
them into the mainstream banking arena, while the PSBs are still
grappling with disgruntled employees in the aftermath of successful
VRS schemes. Also, following India’s commitment to the W To
agreement in respect of the services sector, foreign banks, including
both new and the existing ones, have been permitted to open up to 12
branches a year with effect from 1998-99 as against the earlier
stipulation of 8 branches.
Talks of government diluting their equity from 51 percent to 33
percent in November 2000 has also opened up a new opportunity for
the takeover of even the PSBs. The FDI rules being more rationalized in
Q1FY02 may also pave the way for foreign banks taking the M& A
route to acquire willing Indian partners.
Meanwhile the economic and corporate sector slowdown has led to an
increasing number of banks focusing on the retail segment. Many of
them are also entering the new vistas of Insurance. Banks with their
phenomenal reach and a regular interface with the retail investor are
the best placed to enter into the insurance sector. Banks in India have
90
been allowed to provide fee-based insurance services without risk
participation, invest in an insurance company for providing
infrastructure and services support and set up of a separate joint-
venture insurance company with risk participation.
Aggregate Performance of the Banking
Industry
Aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks increased at a
compounded annual average growth rate (Cagr) of 17.8 percent during
1969-99, while bank credit expanded at a Cagr of 16.3 percent per
annum. Banks’ investments in government and other approved
securities recorded a Cagr of 18.8 percent per annum during the same
period.
In FY01 the economic slowdown resulted in a Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth of only 6.0 percent as against the previous year’s 6.4
percent. The WPI Index (a measure of inflation) increased by 7.1
percent as against 3.3 percent in FY00. Similarly, money supply (M3)
grew by around 16.2 percent as against 14.6 percent a year ago.
91
The growth in aggregate deposits of the scheduled commercial banks
at 15.4 percent in FY01 percent was lower than that of 19.3 percent in
the previous year, while the growth in credit by SCBs slowed down to
15.6 percent in FY01 against 23 percent a year ago.
The industrial slowdown also affected the earnings of listed banks. The
net profits of 20 listed banks dropped by 34.43 percent in the quarter
ended March 2001. Net profits grew by 40.75 percent in the first
quarter of 2000-2001, but dropped to 4.56 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2000-2001.
On the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) front while most banks managed
to fulfill the norms, it was a feat achieved with its own share of
difficulties. The CAR, which at present is 9.0 percent, is likely to be
hiked to 12.0 percent by the year 2004 based on the Basle Committee
recommendations. Any bank that wishes to grow its assets needs to
also shore up its capital at the same time so that its capital as a
percentage of the risk-weighted assets is maintained at the stipulated
rate. While the IPO route was a much-fancied one in the early ‘90s, the
current scenario doesn’t look too attractive for bank majors.
92
Consequently, banks have been forced to explore other avenues to
shore up their capital base. While some are wooing foreign partners to
add to the capital others are employing the M& A route. Many are also
going in for right issues at prices considerably lower than the market
prices to woo the investors.
Interest Rate Scene
The two years, post the East Asian crises in 1997-98 saw a climb in the
global interest rates. It was only in the later half of FY01 that the US
Fed cut interest rates. India has however remained more or less
insulated. The past 2 years in our country was characterized by a
mounting intention of the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) to steadily
reduce interest rates resulting in a narrowing differential between
global and domestic rates.
The RBI has been affecting bank rate and CRR cuts at regular intervals
to improve liquidity and reduce rates. The only exception was in July
2000 when the RBI increased the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to stem
the fall in the rupee against the dollar. The steady fall in the interest
rates resulted in squeezed margins for the banks in general.
93
Governmental Policy
After the first phase and second phase of financial reforms, in the
1980s commercial banks began to function in a highly regulated
environment, with administered interest rate structure, quantitative
restrictions on credit flows, high reserve requirements and reservation
of a significant proportion of lendable resources for the priority and the
government sectors. The restrictive regulatory norms led to the credit
rationing for the private sector and the interest rate controls led to the
unproductive use of credit and low levels of investment and growth.
The resultant ‘financial repression’ led to decline in productivity and
efficiency and erosion of profitability of the banking sector in general.
This was when the need to develop a sound commercial banking
system was felt. This was worked out mainly with the help of the
recommendations of the Committee on the Financial System
(Chairman: Shri M. Narasimham), 1991. The resultant financial sector
reforms called for interest rate flexibility for banks, reduction in
reserve requirements, and a number of structural measures. Interest
rates have thus been steadily deregulated in the past few years with
banks being free to fix their Prime Lending Rates(PLRs) and deposit
94
rates for most banking products. Credit market reforms included
introduction of new instruments of credit, changes in the credit
delivery system and integration of functional roles of diverse players,
such as, banks, financial institutions and non-banking
financial companies (Nbfcs). Domestic Private Sector Banks were
allowed to be set up, PSBs were allowed to access the markets to
shore up their Cars.
Implications Of Some Recent Policy Measures
The allowing of PSBs to shed manpower and dilution of equity are
moves that will lend greater autonomy to the industry. In order to lend
more depth to the capital markets the RBI had in November 2000 also
changed the capital market exposure norms from 5 percent of bank’s
incremental deposits of the previous year to 5 percent of the bank’s
total domestic credit in the previous year. But this move did not have
the desired effect, as in, while most banks kept away almost
completely from the capital markets, a few private sector banks went
overboard and exceeded limits and indulged in dubious stock market
95
deals. The chances of seeing banks making a comeback to the stock
markets are therefore quite unlikely in the near future.
The move to increase Foreign Direct Investment FDI limits to 49
percent from 20 percent during the first quarter of this fiscal came as a
welcome announcement to foreign players wanting to get a foot hold
in the Indian Markets by investing in willing Indian partners who are
starved of networth to meet CAR norms. Ceiling for FII investment in
companies was also increased from 24.0 percent to 49.0 percent and
have been included within the ambit of FDI investment.
The abolishment of interest tax of 2.0 percent in budget 2001-02 will
help banks pass on the benefit to the borrowers on new loans leading
to reduced costs and easier lending rates. Banks will also benefit on
the existing loans wherever the interest tax cost element
has already been built into the terms of the loan. The reduction of
interest rates on various small savings schemes from 11 percent to 9.5
percent in Budget 2001-02 was a much awaited move for the banking
industry and in keeping with the reducing interest rate scenario,
however the small investor is not very happy with the move.
96
Some of the not so good measures however like reducing the limit for
tax deducted at source (TDS) on interest income from deposits to Rs
2,500 from the earlier level of Rs 10,000, in Budget 2001-02, had met
with disapproval from the banking fraternity who feared that the move
would prove counterproductive and lead to increased fragmentation of
deposits, increased volumes and transaction costs. The limit was
thankfully partially restored to Rs 5000 at the time of passing the
Finance Bill in the Parliament.
April 2001-Credit Policy Implications The rationalization of export credit
norms in will bestow greater operational flexibility on banks, and also
reduce the borrowing costs for exporters. Thus this move could trigger
exports growth in the future. Banks can also hope to earn increased
revenue with the interest paid by RBI on CRR balances being increased
from 4.0 percent to 6.0 percent.
The stock market scam brought out the unholy nexus between the
Cooperative banks and stockbrokers. In order to usher in greater
prudence in their operations, the RBI has barred Urban Cooperative
Banks from financing the stock market operations and is also in the
process of setting up of a new apex supervisory body for them.
Meanwhile the foreign banks have a bone to pick with the RBI. The RBI
had announced that forex loans are not to be calculated as a part of
97
Tier-1 Capital for drawing up exposure limits to companies effective 1
April 2002. This will force foreign banks either to infuse fresh capital to
maintain the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) or pare their asset base.
Further, the RBI has
also sought to keep foreign competition away from the nascent net
banking segment in India by allowing only Indian banks with a local
physical presence, to offer Internet banking
On the macro economic front, GDP is expected to grow by 6.0 to 6.5
percent while the projected expansion in broad money (M3) for 2001-
02 is about 14.5 percent. Credit and deposits are both expected to
grow by 15-16 percent in FY02. India's foreign exchange reserves
should reach US$50.0 billion in FY02 and the Indian rupee should hold
steady.
The interest rates are likely to remain stable this fiscal based on an
expected downward trend in inflation rate, sluggish pace of non-oil
imports and likelihood of declining global interest rates. The domestic
banking industry is forecasted to witness a higher degree of mergers
and acquisitions in the future. Banks are likely to opt for the universal
banking approach with a stronger retail approach. Technology and
98
superior customer service will continue to be the imperatives for
success in this industry.
Public Sector banks that imbibe new concepts in banking, turn tech
savvy, leaner and meaner post VRS and obtain more autonomy by
keeping governmental stake to the minimum can succeed in
effectively taking on the private sector banks by virtue of their sheer
size. Weaker PSU banks are unlikely to survive in the long run.
Consequently, they are likely to be either acquired by stronger players
or will be forced to look out for other strategies to infuse greater
capital and optimize their operations.
Foreign banks are likely to succeed in their niche markets and be the
innovators in terms of technology introduction in the domestic
scenario. The outlook for the private sector
banks indeed looks to be more promising vis-à-vis other banks. While
their focused operations, lower but more productive employee force
etc will stand them good, possible acquisitions of PSU banks will
definitely give them the much needed scale of operations and access
to lower cost of funds. These banks will continue to be the early
technology adopters in the industry, thus increasing their efficiencies.
99
Also, they have been amongst the first movers in the lucrative
insurance segment. Already, banks such as Icici Bank and Hdfc Bank
have forged alliances with Prudential Life and Standard Life
respectively. This is one segment that is likely to witness a greater
deal of action in the future. In the near term, the low interest rate
scenario is likely to affect the spreads of majors. This is likely to result
in a greater focus on better asset-liability management procedures.
Consequently, only banks that strive hard to increase their share of
fee-based revenues are likely to do better in the future.
10
0
ICICI BANK:
ICICI Bank is India's second-largest bank with total assets of Rs.
3,744.10 billion (US$ 77 billion) at December 31, 2008 and profit
after tax Rs. 30.14 billion for the nine months ended December 31,
2008. The Bank has a network of 1,419 branches and about 4,644
ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries. ICICI Bank offers a wide
range of banking products and financial services to corporate and
retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and through its
specialized
subsidiaries and affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and
non-life insurance, venture capital and asset management. The Bank
currently has subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, Russia and Canada,
branches in United States, Singapore, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka,
Qatar and Dubai International Finance Centre and representative
offices in United Arab Emirates, China, South Africa, Bangladesh,
Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Our UK subsidiary has established
branches in Belgium and Germany.
ICICI Bank's equity shares are listed in India on Bombay Stock
Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its
10
1
American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are listed on the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE).
History
ICICI Bank was originally promoted in 1994 by ICICI Limited, an Indian
financial institution, and was its wholly-owned subsidiary. ICICI's
shareholding in ICICI Bank was reduced to 46% through a public
offering of shares in India in fiscal 1998, an equity offering in the form
of ADRs listed on the NYSE in fiscal 2000, ICICI Bank's acquisition of
Bank of Madura Limited in an all-stock amalgamation in fiscal 2001,
and secondary market sales by ICICI to institutional investors in fiscal
2001 and fiscal 2002. ICICI was
formed in 1955 at the initiative of the World Bank, the Government of
India and representatives of Indian industry. The principal objective
was to create a development financial institution for providing
medium-term and long-term project financing to Indian businesses. In
the 1990s, ICICI transformed its business from a development financial
institution offering only project finance to a diversified financial
services group offering a wide variety of products and services, both
directly and through a number of subsidiaries and affiliates like ICICI
Bank. In 1999, ICICI become the first Indian company and the first bank
or financial institution from non-Japan Asia to be listed on the NYSE.
10
2
After consideration of various corporate structuring alternatives in the
context of the emerging competitive scenario in the Indian banking
industry, and the move towards universal banking, the managements
of ICICI and ICICI Bank formed the view that the merger of ICICI with
ICICI Bank would be the optimal strategic alternative for both entities,
and would create the optimal legal structure for the ICICI group's
universal banking strategy. The merger would enhance value for ICICI
shareholders through the merged entity's access to low-cost deposits,
greater opportunities for earning fee-based income and the ability to
participate in the payments system and provide transaction-banking
services. The merger would enhance value for ICICI Bank shareholders
through a large capital base and scale of operations, seamless access
to ICICI's strong corporate relationships built up over five decades,
entry into new business segments, higher market share in various
business segments, particularly fee-based services, and access to the
vast talent pool of ICICI and its subsidiaries.
In October 2001, the Boards of Directors of ICICI and ICICI
Bank approved the merger of ICICI and two of its wholly-owned retail
finance subsidiaries, ICICI Personal Financial Services Limited and ICICI
Capital Services Limited, with ICICI Bank. The merger was approved by
shareholders of ICICI and ICICI Bank in January 2002, by the High Court
of Gujarat at Ahmedabad in March 2002, and by the High Court of
Judicature at Mumbai and the Reserve Bank of India in April 2002.
Consequent to the merger, the ICICI group's financing and banking

10
3
operations, both wholesale and retail, have been integrated in a single
entity.
SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES
At March 31, 2008, ICICI Bank had 17 subsidiaries as listed below:
• Domestic Subsidiaries International Subsidiaries
• ICICI Securities Limited ICICI Bank UK PLC
• ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Limited ICICI Bank Canada
• ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited ICICI Wealth
Management Inc.1
• ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Limited ICICI Bank
Eurasia Limited Liability Company
• ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited ICICI
Securities Holdings Inc.2
• ICICI Prudential Trust Limited ICICI Securities Inc.3
• ICICI Venture Funds Management Company Limited ICICI
International Limited
10
4
• ICICI Home Finance Company Limited
• ICICI Investment Management Company Limited
• ICICI Trusteeship Services Limited
Recent developments
• Completed Rs200b follow on offering
• Amalgamated Sangli Bank with itself
Board Members
➢ Mr. N. Vaghul, Chairman
➢ Mr. Sridar Iyengar
➢ Mr. Lakshmi N. Mittal
➢ Mr. Narendra Murkumbi
➢ Dr. Anup K. Pujari
➢ Mr. Anupam Puri
➢ Mr. M.K. Sharma
10
5
➢ Mr. P.M. Sinha
➢ Prof. Marti G. Subrahmanyam
➢ Mr. T.S. Vijayan
➢ Mr. V. Prem Watsa
➢ Mr. K.V. Kamath, Managing Director & CEO
➢ Ms. Chanda Kochhar, Joint Managing Director & Chief Financial
Officer
➢ Mr. V. Vaidyanathan, Executive Director
➢ Mr. Sonjoy Chatterjee, Executive Director
➢ Mr. K. Ramkumar, Executive Director
SHARE DATA
Company Name ICICI BANK
Market Cap Rs. 389.03B
10
6
Price Rs.349.45
BSE Sensex 9459.34
BSE Code 532174
NSE Code INE090A01013
Face Value Rs.10
52-Week High/Low Rs. 960.90/252.75
Beta of the Company 1.60
Returns1 Year -56.81 %
Weightage in SENSEX 5.32
Co-efficient of Determination 0.79
(R^2)
Free-float adj. factor as on 1
31/04/09
Index BSE 100 ,BSE Mid Cap
Group A
10
7
MFs invested in this company
Scheme % of scheme asset size

Templeton Fixed Horizon Fund 99.95
Series 1 - 13 M - Institutional
Plan - Dividend
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7 - A - Growth
7 - B - Growth
7 - A - Dividend
7-B-
Q3-2009: Key highlights
• 25% quarter-on-quarter increase in profit after tax to Rs. 12.72
billion in Q3 2009 from Rs. 10.14 billion in Q2-2009.
• Profit after tax of Rs. 12.30 billion in Q3-2008
• Capitalized on opportunities in declining interest rate scenario:
treasury gains of Rs. 9.76 billion in Q3-2009
10
8
• 19% year-on-year decrease in operating & direct marketing
agency expenses despite substantial increase in branches
• Net interest margin maintained at 2.4%
• Strategy of conscious moderation in credit growth
• Contraction in standalone loan book during the year to Rs.
2,125.21 billion at December 31, 2008
• Net NPA ratio of 1.95% at December 31, 2008
Share Holding Pattern
10
9
Shareholdingpattern
7.68, 12% 11.52, 18% Banks, Fininsti &

0.41, 1% insurance
6.49, 10% FII's
Pvt Corporatebodies
N RI's,OCB's&foreign
others
General Public
39.01, 59%
MONTHWISE HIGH AND LOW VALUE OF SHARE
PRICE OF ICICI BANK LTD.
11
0
Major Gain And Lose For ICICI BANK LTD. From Jan-08 To
March-09
Five Major Gains For ICICI BANK in (%) terms

Date Prev.Close Day Close Change % Change
Month Monthly High in (Rs.) Monthly Lowin (Rs.)
13-Oct-08Date 364.1
Value
425.3
Date
61.20
Value
16.81%
31-Oct-08
Jan-08 345.75
14-Jan-08 399.35
1465.00 53.60
22-Jan-08 15.50%
1005.55
18-Jul-08
Feb-08 551.2
4-Feb-08 1245.20617.6 66.40
11-Feb-08 12.05%
996.00
23-Jul-08
Mar-08 661.3
3-Mar-08 738.25
1065.00 76.95
18-Mar-08 11.64%
720.00
25-Jan-08
Apr-08 1,134.00
28-Apr-08 1,259.25
947.00 125.25
1-Apr-08 11.04%
732.00
May-08 5-May-08 960.90 30-May-08 778.10
Jun-08 18-Jun-08 826.00 30-Jun-08 611.50
Jul-08 24-Jul-08 779.70 16-Jul-08 515.10
Aug-08 12-Aug-08 779.70 1-Aug-08 610.00
Sep-08 4-Sep-08 729.90 30-Sep-08 458.00
Oct-08 1-Oct-08 565.00 27-Oct-08 282.15
Nov-08 5-Nov-08 491.00 21-Nov-08 308.10
Dec-08 18-Dec-08 480.90 2-Dec-08 305.00
Jan-09 7-Jan-09 537.95 27-Jan-09 358.10
Feb-09 10-Feb-09 441.95 27-Feb-09 311.25
Mar-09 27-Mar-09 387.40 6-Mar-09 252.75
11
1
Five Major Loses For ICICI BANK in (%) terms
Date Prev.Close Day Close Change % Change
10-Oct-08 453.5 364.1 -89.40 -19.71%
24-Oct-08 365.45 310 -55.55 -15.20%
17-Mar-08 878.2 757.4 -120.80 -13.76%
29-Sep-08 561.25 493.3 -67.95 -12.11%
7-Jan-09 523.15 468.05 -55.10 -10.53%
MONTHLY MARGIN FOR ICICI BANK LTD.
11
2
Month Monthly Avg. Margin % Monthly Avg. Margin
Jan-08 92.985 7.449%
Feb-08 56.919 5.064%
Mar-08 63.986 7.528%
Apr-08 43.393 5.204%
May-08 32.278 3.677%
Jun-08 35.779 4.859%
Jul-08 45.559 7.359%
Aug-08 37.250 5.451%
Sep-08 45.074 7.452%
Oct-08 46.538 11.595%
Nov-08 34.183 8.763%
Dec-08 29.074 7.184%
Jan-09 30.163 7.009%
Feb-09 20.392 5.368%
Mar-09 21.093 6.963%
11
3
Technical Analysis :
Performance of ICICI Bank Ltd. In last 1 year
Performance of ICICI Bank in last 1 year
1,600.00
1,400.00
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00 Close
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
10/1/2008
11/1/2008
12/1/2008
1/1/2008
3/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
3/1/2009
2/1/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
2/1/2009
Resistance level:
Rs.760
Support Level:
Rs.300
11
4
• Rumours started surfacing about the bank’s overseas exposure
and a run on its deposits as on Oct’08
• Such rumours prompted some depositors to withdraw money
• The rescue mission helped ICICI Bank’s stocks to recoup heavy
losses.
Resistanc
e
Monthly Data :
Support
Level:Rs
ICICI Bank's Performance On May'08
1000
950
Share Price
900
850 Series1
800
750
700
5/ 08
5/ 0 8
5/ 08
10 8
20 8
12 8
14 8
16 8
18 8
22 8
24 8
26 8
28 8
30 8
8
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 00
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 00
5/ 0 0
00
5/ 00
Resistance Level:Rs 940

20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
5/
Date
Support Level: Rs.

805
11
5
➢ Reason- As we could see the downturn of the stock in the month
of May’08 the reason was allotment of Equity shares under the
ESOS, 2000. They allotted around 2.5lakh equity shares of face
value of Rs10.
11
6
ICICI Bank's Performance On June'08
RESISTANCE
900
800 LEVELRs.780
700
Share Price
600
500
Series1
400
300
200
100
20 8 0
6/ 08
6/ 0 8
6/ 08
10 8
12 8
14 8
16 8
18 8
22 8
24 8
26 8
28 8
30 8
8
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 00
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 00
6/ 0 0
00
6/ 00
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
6/
Date
➢ Reason- ICICI Bank informed about the payment of dividend &
14th Annual General Meeting of the bank to be held in July 26,
2008, so we can say that the share price would move up in July.
ICICI Bank's Performance On July'08

Resistance Level:
800 Rs. 750
700
600
Share Price
500 Support Level : Rs.

400 Series1 505
300
200
100
0
7/ 0 8
7/ 0 8
7/ 0 8
7/ 0 8
11 8
13 8
17 8
21 8
23 8
27 8
31 8
8
15 8
19 8
25 8
29 8
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
00
7/ 00
7/ 00
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
9/
7/
7/
Date
11
7
➢ Reason- As we could see the rise in share price after the mid of
July due to bank income increased by 1485.6 as compared to
quarter ended June 30, 2008.
➢ Second thing was increase in Interest rates for various tenors of
retail Fixed
➢ Deposits by 0.75% to 1.00% w.e.f from Aug 1st, 2008.
ICICI Bank's performance On Aug'09
900 Resistance
800 Level:Rs 790
700
Share Price
600
500 Support
Series1
400
300
200
100
0
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
11 8
15 8
23 8
29 8
13 8
17 8
19 8
21 8
25 8
27 8
8
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
00
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 00
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
8/
Date
➢ Reason- ICICI had benefit from their Quarter 1st results, that’s
why its price was increased than they allotted equity shares to
ESOS, 2000. But because of results IC had manage some how.
11
8
ICICI Bank's Performance On Sept'08
800
700 Resistance Level:Rs.
600 725
Share Price
500
400 Series1
300
200
100
0
9/ 0 8
9/ 0 8
13 8
15 8
17 8
19 8
21 8
23 8
25 8
27 8
29 8
8
9/ 0 8
9/ 0 8
11 8
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
00
9/ 00
20
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
9/
Date
➢ REASON:-The Graph shows a downward trend in the month of
September. The vital reason for this is the financial crisis and a
sudden downturn in the banking sector.
➢ There were rumours of Insider trading that some of the person’s
in the top management selling their shares.
11
9
Share price Share Price
12 10
/1
/1/ /2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10 0 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
12 20 0 /3 8
/3/ 8 /2
10 0 0
12 20 0 /5 8
/5/ 8 /2
10 0 0
12 20 0 /7 8
/2
REASON:-There
/7/ 8 10 0 0
12 20 0 /9 8
/9 8 10 /20
/1 08
12 /20 1
/11 08 10 /2 0
/1 08
was
12 /2 0 3/
/1 08 10 2 0
3 /1 08
5
a
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/1 08 /1 08
5 7
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/17 08 /1 08
9
Date
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/19 08 /2 08
1/
Date
12 /2 0 10 2 0
/2 08 /2 08
1 3
downfall
12 /2 0 10 /2 0
/2 08
/23 08 5
10 /2 0
12 /2 0 /2 08
7
in
/25 08
10 /2 0
ICICI Bank's Performance On Oct'08
12 /2 0 /2 08
/27 08 9/
10 2 0
12 /2 0 /3 08
the
/29 08 1/
20
12 /2 0 08
IC ICI B ank's Performance On D ec'08

/31 08
announcement of new BOD of the organization.

/2
00
8
prices
Series1
Series1
470
because
455
of
0
12
the
Resistance Level:Rs.
Resistance Level: Rs
➢ Reasons- There was uptrend in prices due to Repurchase &
subsequent Extinguished of Bonds and cuts in lending & deposit
rates.
ICICI Bank's Performance On Jan'09
600
500 Resistance Level:
Share Price
400 Rs. 440

300 Series1
200
100
0
1/ 0 9
1/ 0 9
13 9
15 9
17 9
19 9
21 9
23 9
25 9
27 9
29 9
9
1/ 0 9
1/ 0 9
11 9
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
00
1/ 00
20
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
1/
Date
➢ Reason- ICICI announced Quarter 3 Results and posted a net
profit of Rs 15597.60 million for the quarter ended December 31,
2008 as compared to Rs 11198.20 million for the quarter ended
December 31, 2007.
12
1
IC IC I B a n k's P e rfo rm a n c e O n F e b '0 9

450 Rs445
400
350
Share Price
300
250 S eries 1
200
150
100
50
0
2/4 0 9
2/6 0 9
2/8 0 9
2/1 00 9
2/1 0 09
2/2 0 09
2/2 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/2 0 09
2/2 0 09
9
00
20
/20
/20
/2
2
2
2/2
4/2
6/2
8/2
2
2/2
6/2
/
4/
0/
0/
2/2
Da te
➢ Reasons: There was a decline in the share prices at the end of
the month because of the news that the bank tops the list of
credit cards frauds & it amounts to losses of around 11.47 cr.
12
2
IC IC I B an k's P e rfo rm a n ce o n M arch '09

400 Rs.349
350
300
share Price
250
c los ing pric e
200
150
100
50
0
3/ 0 9
3/ 0 9
3/ 0 9
3/ 00 9
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 009
9
00
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
3/
Da te
An upward movement of the stock prices has been seen in the month
of March because in a ceremony held in Hong Kong, ICICI Bank has
been awarded the following titles under The Asset Triple A country
awards for 2009:-
• Best Transaction Bank in India
• Best Trade Finance Bank in India
• Best Cash Management Bank in India
• Best Domestic Custodian in India
12
3
Weekly charts of Jan’09:
Weekly Chart
540
Share Price in (Rs.)
520
500
Resistance Level:
480
Rs.525
460
440
420
1/5/2009 1/6/2009 1/7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press
Release dated December 31, 2008, titled "ICICI Bank cuts
lending and deposit rates".
12
4
Weekly Chart(12 Jan-16 Jan)
450
440
430
420
Resistance Level: Rs.442
410
400
390
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the
Board of Directors of the Bank will be held on January 24, 2009,
inter alia, to consider the approval of audited accounts for the
quarter ended December 31, 2008 (Q3).
Weekly Chart(19 Jan-23 Jan)
420
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
1/19/2009 1/20/2009 1/21/2009 1/22/2009 1/23/2009
Date
Resistance Level:
Rs380 12
5
➢ Interest rates to come down which will benefit SME’s.
➢ The prices are more towards stability because of increase in Q3
profit by 3.4 %.
Weekly Chart (27Jan-30 Jan)

420
410
400
390
380
370
360
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 Date 1/29/2009 1/30/2009
➢ Reasons-Rise in share price of ICICI Bank due to announcement
of Q3 Results .ICICI posted a net profit of Rs 15597.60 million for
12
6
the quarter ended December 31, 2008 as compared to Rs
11198.20 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007.
Weekly Chart For the month of Feb:
Performane Of ICICI Bank from 2nd Feb to 6th Feb
410
405
Resistance Level’s.
400
402
Share Price
395
390 Series1
385
380
375
370
2/2/2009 2/3/2009 2/4/2009 2/5/2009 2/6/2009
Date
➢ Reasons- Change in directorate with effect from 27 Jan, 2009.
ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated
January 24, 2009 titled "Performance Review - Quarter ended
December 31, 2008".
12
7
Performance of ICICI Bank from 9th feb to 13th feb'09
440
435 Resistance Level: Rs.

430
435.5
Share price
425 Series1
420
415
410
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009
Date
➢ Reasons- Volatility is higher due to Repurchase & subsequent
Extinguishment of Bonds.
Performance of ICICI bank from 16th Feb to 20th Feb'09
450
350 408
300
Share Price
250 Support Level: Rs. 300

Series1
200
150
100
50
0
2/16/2009 2/17/2009 2/18/2009 2/19/2009 2/20/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank has decided to follow the slow-moving pace
in disbursing auto loans, unless there is clarity on the
repossession norms for vehicles. The lack of clarity is the direct
result of a Supreme Court judgment, which requires lenders to

12
8
follow the due process of law for recovering vehicles from
defaulters.
Performance of ICICI Bank from 24th feb to 27th feb '09
345
340 Resistance Level; Rs.

340.5
335
Share Price
330 Series1
325 Support Level: Rs. 325

320
315
2/24/2009 2/25/2009 2/26/2009 2/27/2009
date
➢ Reason: There was an increase in prices after 25th Feb because
the bank was awarded Dun & Bradstreet Banking Award 2009.
12
9
Weekly Performance of ICICI Bank in
March’09
Performance from 2nd March to 6th March
310
300
Resistance Level: Rs.
290 300
Share price
280 Series1 Support Level: Rs.
270
270
260
250
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date
➢ Reason: The RBI has taken a positive step by announcing the cut
of 50 basis points in repo as well as reverse repo rate, said Ms
13
0
Chanda Kochhar, CEO-designate, ICICI Bank, said. The RBI has
sought to create conditions conducive to the consumption and
investment, taking into account the global developments and
their impact on India: slowdown in growth on one hand and
decline in inflation on the other.
Performance from 9th March to 13th March
320
310
300
Share Price
290
280 Series1
270
260
250
240
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009
date
➢ Reason: ICICI BANK made a recovery in this week after falling of
more than 12% in the previous week due to positive global news
and the effect of stimulus package announced by the Govt. of
India.
13
1
Performance From 16th March to 20th March'09
340
Resistance Level: Rs.
335 338
330
Share Price
Support Level: Rs. 324

325 Series1
320
315
310
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank is planning to set up a new entity to house its
automated teller machines (ATMs) as well as the point-of-sale
(PoS) terminals, which accept credit and debit card payments.
This is the first time that an Indian bank is planning to transfer
its ATM as well as PoS assets to a separate company.
13
2
Performance from 23rd March to 27th March'09
390
370
382
Share price
360
Series1
350
340
330
320
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
date
➢ Reason: "Banks should start considering 0.50 per cent cut in
interest rate ... Possibly in a week or few weeks," Kamath said.
He also said "Clearly, inflation is nearing zero, but we are not
able to bring down lending rate to single digit. So there is a need
to look at more policy action,".
Financials
➢ Operating profit ex-treasury is down 10% YoY and 26%
QoQ
NII grew 2% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to Rs19.9b. Loans declined 1%
YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs2.1t. Reported margins were stable at 2.4%.
13
3
Fee income at Rs13.5b was down 25% YoY and 28% QoQ. Treasury
income rose from Rs2.8b in 3QFY08 to Rs9.8b in 3QFY09 - driving
PAT. Treasury Income during the quarter includes Rs2.5b on MTM
reversal. Opex declined 18% YoY and was stable QoQ. Operating
profit ex-treasury is down 10% YoY and 26% QoQ in 3QFY09. Total
deposits declined by 9% YoY and 6% QoQ to Rs2. This is partly due to
strategic slowdown and mainly due to flight of retail deposits.
➢ Asset quality deterioration continues
Reported gross NPAs declined 6% QoQ to Rs96b as management
wrote off Rs16b of gross NPAs during the quarter and sold off Rs2b of
NPAs. NPA generation during the quarter was Rs12b (stable for last
4-5 quarter). Due to the write off decision; provision coverage
declined to 54% from 58% a quarter ago. Net NPAs increased 4% QoQ
despite Rs10b of fresh provision during the quarter. Net NPAs now
stand at 9% of net worth.Management expects gross NPA build up to
continue driven by rising defaults in unsecure portfolios and CVs
(account for 16% of total loan book). While so far the corporate book
is not showing any signs of weakness, it could throw up NPAs in FY10.
We have modelled NPA cost rising to 1.7% in FY09 and 1.9% in FY10
(from 1.3% in FY08) and then falling
to 1.5% in FY11.
➢ ICICI Prudential Life impacted severely

13
4
ICICI Pru Life’s retail WNRP and NBAP declined 33% QoQ in 3QFY09.
ICICI Prudential Life NBAP declined by 5% YoY in 9MFY09 to Rs7.12b.
NBAP decline was 40% YoY in 3QFY09. NBAP margin contracted to
18.9% in 9MFY09 from 19.3% in 9MFY08 –however was stable QoQ.
➢ Overseas subsidiaries a mixed bag
ICICI UK’s total assets declined QoQ from USD8.7b to USD7.6. Loan
book however improved marginally from USD2.5b in September 2008
to USD2.7b in December 2008. ICICI UK earned profit of ~USD37m
during 3QFY09. However due to large MTMs in 1HFY09, 9MFY09 PAT is
merely USD 1.4m. MTM taken through reserves during 3QFY09 was a
substantial USD71m v/s USD42m booked in 1HFY09.
ICICI Canada’s total assets increased QoQ from USD5.5b to
USD6.5b. Loan book grew sharply 40% QoQ to USD3.6b. Earnings
were CAD11m in 3QFY09 and CAD33m in 9MFY09.
➢ Reducing target price to Rs446 - upside of 23%
We expect ICICI Bank to report EPS of Rs34 in FY09 and Rs39 in FY10.
BV would be Rs439 in FY09 and Rs463 in FY10. ABV (adjusted for 50%
investment in subs and 65% net NPAs) would be Rs364 in FY09 and
Rs384 in FY10. We reduce our target price from Rs497 to Rs446 mainly due
13
5
to a) applying 0.8x multiple to BV adjusted for 50% investments in
subsidiaries and 65% net NPAs (earlier not adjusted for NPAs) and b)
reducing the value of ICICI Pru Life from Rs116/share to Rs82/share.
Quarterly Results in brief:
Particulars Dec’08 Sept’08 Absolute %
13
6
(Rs crore) (Rs crore) Change chang
Sales 7,836.08 7,834.98 1.1 0.014
Operating profit 5,094.27 5,171.41 -77.14 -1.4
Interest 5,845.67 5,687.36 157.91 2.77
Gross profit 2,770.84 2,284.91 485.93 21.26
EPS(Rs) 11.43 9.11 2.32 25.46
Analysis:
• The sales have increased by 0.014% in Q3.
• Operating profit has decreased on the assumption that either
operating expenses have increased or there is an increase in NPA’s.
• As there is an increase in gross profit & EPS, it shows that the
demand of the share will increase in the future.
RATIO ANALYSIS:-
Y/E MARCH 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E

13
7
Spreads
Analysis(%)
Avg. Yield-Earning 7.9 8.9 8.7 8.3 8.3
Assets
Avg.Cost- 6.4 7.4 7.2 6.4 6.2
Int.Bear,Liab.
Interest Spread 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.9 2
Net Interest Margin 2 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8
Pofitability
Ratios(%)
ROE 13.4 11.7 7.9 8.6 10.6
Adjusted ROE 13.4 12.9 8.8 9.7 12.1
Int. 74.4 76.3 73.6 67.9 66.1
Expended/int.Earne
Other Inc./Net 55.1 54.7 48.1 45.6 44.9
Income
Efficiency
Ratios(%)
Op. Exps./Net 57.9 53.3 45.6 44.1 43.6
Income
13
8
Empl. Cost/Op. 24.2 25.5 28.7 27.9 28.4
Exps.
Busi. Per Empl.(Rs 110.7 110.7 112.8 99.9 104.4
m)
NP per Empl.(Rs. 9.3 10.3 9.4 9.5 11.9
lac)
Asset-Liability
Profile(%)
Adv./Deposit Ratio 85 92.3 100.9 101 100.3
CASA Ratio % 21.8 26.1 28 31.5 33.5
Invest/Deposit 39.6 45.6 49.7 50.7 49.3
Ratio
G-Sec/Invest Ratio 73.8 67.6 62.3 59.2 60.8
Gross NPAs to Adv. 2.1 3.3 4.3 4.6 4.1
Net NPAs to Adv. 1 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3
CAR 11.7 14 14.9 14 12.9
Tier 1 7.4 11.8 11.5 10.7 9.7
Valuation
Book Value(Rs.) 270 418 439 463 500
Price-BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
13
9
ABV(for Subs 256 397 415 440 480
Invst. And NPAs)
EPS(Rs.) 34.6 37.4 33.8 38.6 51.2
EPS Growth(%) 21.2 8 -9.7 14.3 32.6
Price-Earning (x) 10.5 9.7 10.8 9.4 7.1
Adj.Price- 6.9 6.4 7.1 5.9 4.4
Earnings(x)
COMPARATIVE VALUATIONS:-
ICICI BANK HDFC BANK AXIS BANK
P/E(x) FY09E 7.4 18.5 17.8
FY010 6.4 14.8 13.4
P/BV( FY09E 0.7 2.8 2.6
14
0
x)
FY010 0.6 2.1 2.2
ROE( FY09E 8.5 15.6 15.4
%)
FY10E 9 16.6 17.9
ROA( FY09E 0.9 1.3 1.1
%)
FY010 1 1.4 1.1
14
1
RESULT ANALYSIS:-
14
2
3QFY0 3QFY0 YOY 2QFY0 QOQ FY08 FY09E FY10E
9 8 GR. 9 GR.
% %
Interest 78,361 79,118 78,350 0 3,07,88 3,13,14 3,01,68
Income 3 2 5
Interest 58,457 59,521 56,874 3 2,34,84 2,30,62 2,04,79
Expense 2 1 0
Net Interest 19,904 19,597 2 21,476 73,041 82,521 96,895
Income(NII)
Other 25,150 24,266 4 18,773 34 88,108 76,615 81,244
Income
- Fees 13,470 17,850 18,760 -28 66,270 66,270 69,584
- Treasury 9,760 2,820 246 -1,530 -738 8,150 4,000 5,000
Income(Incl
uding MTM)
- Others 1,920 3,596 1,543 24 13,688 6,345 6,660
Net Income 45,054 43,863 3 40,250 12 1,61,1 1,59,1 1,78,1
49 35 39
Total 17,341 21,276 -18 17,400 0 81,542 70,704 76,359
Operating
Costs
- Staff 5,030 5,705 -12 4,881 3 20,789 20,276 21,290
Costs
- Other 12,311 15,571 -21 12,520 -2 60,753 50,428 55,069
Opex
Operating 27,713 22,587 23 22,849 21 79,607 88,431 1,01,7

14
Profit 3 80
INCOME
STATEMENT
Y/E MARCH 2,007 2,008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Interest Income 2,19,95 3,07,88 3,13,14 3,01,68 3,33,116
6 3 2 5
Interest 1,63,58 2,34,84 2,30,62 2,04,7 2,20,213
Expended 5 2 1 90
Net Interest 56,371 73,041 82,521 96,895 1,12,904
Income
Change (%) 44.3 29.4 13.0 17.4 16.5
Other Income 66,279 88,108 76,615 81,244 92,098
Net Income 1,25,65 1,61,14 1,59,13 1,78,1 2,05,002
0 9 5 39
Change (%) 41.3 28.3 -1.2 11.9 15.1
Operating Exp. 66,906 81,542 70,704 76,359 87,910
Operating 58,744 79,607 88,431 1,01,7 1,17,092
Income 80
Change (%) 51.1 35.5 11.1 15.1 15.0
Provisions & 22,294 29,046 37,684 42,990 39,114
Cont.
PBT 36,450 50,561 50,747 58,790 77,978
Tax 5,348 8,984 13,194 15,873 21,054
Tax Rate (%) 14.7 17.8 26.0 27.0 27.0
PAT 31,102 41,577 37,553 42,916 56,924
Change (%) 22.4 33.7 -9.7 14.3 32.6
Proposed 8,993 12,239 12,239 13,352 13,352
14
4
Dividend
BALANCE
SHEET
Y/E MARCH 2,007 2,008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Capital 8,993 11,127 11,127 11,127 11,127
Preference 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
Capital
Reserve & 2,34,13 4,53,57 4,76,808 5,04,103 5,45,404
Surplus 9 5
Net worth 2,46,6 4,68,20 4,91,43 5,18,730 5,60,03
33 2 5 1
Deposits 23,05, 24,44,3 21,50,9 23,23,07 26,71,5
100 11 93 3 34
Change (%) 39.6 6.0 -12.0 8.0 15.0
Borrowings 7,06,61 8,63,98 9,11,719 9,87,038 10,73,48
3 6 5
Other 1,88,23 2,21,45 2,81,244 3,57,180 4,53,619
Liabilities & 5 2
Prov.
Total Liabilities 34,46, 39,97,9 38,35,3 41,86,02 47,58,6
581 51 91 0 68
14
5
Current Assets 3,71,21 3,80,41 3,04,722 3,19,200 3,54,349
3 1
Investments 9,12,5 11,14,5 10,69,9 11,76,95 13,18,1
78 43 62 8 93
Change (%) 27.5 22.1 -4.0 10.0 12.0
Loans 19,58, 22,56,1 21,69,4 23,46,19 26,80,7
656 61 23 8 08
Change (%) 34.0 15.2 -3.8 8.1 14.3
Net Fixed 39,234 41,089 44,389 47,389 49,889
Assets
Other Assets 1,64,89 2,05,74 2,46,896 2,96,275 3,55,530
9 6
Total Assets 34,46, 39,97,9 38,35,3 41,86,02 47,58,6
581 51 91 0 68
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE MONTH
Market is at the resistant level (SENSEX 14,500 points as on 20th
Mayl, 2009) and ICICI BANK share price is highly correlated with market so
for next 10 days ICICI BANK share price is expected to achieve a new
support level of 650 points.

14
6
News from India
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo Rate, CRR, and
SBI already had followed the move by cutting the lending rate and home
loan rate to all segments and it is expected that all others banks can also
follow the same ,which can impact the profitability of the banking sector.
“Looking at the above given information we can project the new
Support Level at 650* points and Resistance Level at 750* points
for the Second and third week of June”.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR THE COMING
MONTHS
Beginning of June the news could be favorable but will the same Support
and Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our team have
done research on it and made the conclusion that it will not be
maintaining the same levels.
REASONS:
14
7
• Market fall is expected because it cannot sustain at this level for
• 4th Quarter Result would the deciding point for the share price of
ICICI BANK.
• General Election is not far away and market will take some rest
during this time frame.
• Loss from the overseas market by having exposure to foreign
exchange may be crucial point for the ICICI BANK share price.
“Looking at the above given information I projected that the new
Support Level for the Month of June will be 670* points and
Resistance level will be 810* points”.
Key investment arguments :-
• Modest loan growth with improving margin would result
in significant net interest income growth; fee income is
expected to remain buoyant
• Subsidiaries hold significant values
Valuation and view:-
14
8
• Improvement in CASA and margins, and reduction in
net NPAs will be the key triggers to watch out for.
• Adjusted for subs value at Rs139/share (reduced from
Rs169); stock trades at 0.6x FY10E ABV (adjusted
for 50% investment in subs and 65% net NPAs).
• We value ICICIBC at Rs446/share (0.8x FY10E ABV
+ Rs139/share for subs value).
Sector view:-
• YTD loan growth of 24% and deposit growth of 21%.  Concerns
on slowing economic growth.
• Selective buying favoring banks with higher earnings
visibility and reasonable valuations.
Key investment risks:-
• NPAs have been increasing over the last few quarters and have
reached 2% (net) as on December 2008 .
• NIM and CASA ratio continue to be one of the lowest in the
industry.
SWOT ANALYSIS
14
9
➢ STRENGHTS:
1) Online Services: ICICI Bank provides online services of all it’s banking
facilities. It also provides D-Mart account facilities on-line, so a person can
access his account from anywhere he is.
[D-Mart is a dematerialized account opened by a salaried person for
purchase & sale of shares of different companies.]
2) Advanced Infrastructure: Branches of ICICI Bank are well equipped with
advanced technology to provide the customers with taster banking
services. All the computerized machines are located in suitable manner &
are very useful to the customers & staff of the bank.
3) Friendly Staff: The staff of ICICI Bank in all branches is very friendly &
help the customers in all cases. They provide faster services along with
bonding & personal relationship with the customers.
4) 12 hrs. Banking services: Compared to other bank ICICI bank provides
long hrs. of services i.e. 8-8 services to the customers. This service is one
of it’s kind & is very helpful for the customers who are in urgent need of
money.
15
0
5) Other Facilities to the Customers & Employees: ICICI Bank also provides
other facilities like drinking water facilities, proper sitting arrangements to
the customers. And there are also proper Ventilation & sanitary facilities
for the employees of the bank.
6) Late night ATM services: ICICI bank provides late night ATM services to
the customers. The ATM centers of ICICI bank works even after 11:00pm.
at night in certain branches.
➢ Weakness:
1) High Bank Service Charges: ICICI bank charges highly to customers
for the services provided by them when compared to other bank & that is
why it is only in the reach of higher class of society.
2) Less Credit Period: ICICI bank provides credit facilities but only upto
limited period. Even when the credit period is not over it sends reminder
letters to the customers which may annoy them.
15
1
➢ OPPORTUNITIES:
1) Bank –Insurance services: The bank should also provide insurance
services. That means the bank can have a tie-up with a insurance
company. The bank will advertise & promote the different policies
introduced by the insurance company & convince their customers to buy
insurance policies.
2) Increase in percentage of Returns on increase: The bank should
provide higher returns on deposits in comparison of the present situation.
This will also upto large extent help the bank earn profits & popularity.
3) Recruit professionally guided students: Bank & Insurance is a special
non-aid course where the students specialize in the functioning & services
of the bank & also are knowledge about various tax policies. The bank can
recruit these students through tie-ups with colleges. Such students will
surely prove as an asset to the bank.
4) Associate with social cause: The bank can also associate itself with
social causes like providing relief aid patients, funding towards natural
calamities. But this falls in the 4th quadrant so the bank should neglect it.
15
2
➢ THREATS
1) Competition: ICICI Bank is facing tight competition locally as well as
internationally. Bank like CITI Bank, HSBC, ABM, Standered Chartered,
HDFC also provide equivalent facilities like ICICI do and also ICICI do not
have consistency in its international operation.
2) Net Services: ICICI Bank provides all kind of services on-line. There can
be easy access to the e-mail ids of the customers through wrong people.
The confidential information of the customers can be leaked easily
through the e-mail ids.
3) Decentralized Management: Each branch manager is given the
authority of taking decisions in their respective branches. The decisions
made by different managers are diverse and any one wrong decision can
laid to heavy losses to the bank.
4) No Proper Facilities To Uneducated customers: ICICI Bank provides all
services through electronic computerized machines. This creates
problems to the less educated people. But this threat falls in the 4 th
quadrant so its negligible. The company can avoid this threat.
15
3
Indian Realty Sector
Till a few months back, the real estate industry in India was witnessing a
boom, it is only sometime back the industry is facing a downturn. But one
cannot deny that the real estate market of India is still unorganized, fairly
fragmented, mostly characterized by small players with a local presence.
Earlier, real estate developers were viewed with an element of doubt.
Realty players and developers were quite often identified as people
dealing with large amounts of unaccounted money and lacking
15
4
transparency. One felt that they would use unscrupulous means to
acquire a variety of regulatory approvals. The tremendous growth of the
real estate sector and the change of belief of people can be attributed to
various fundamental factors such as growing economy, growing business
needs, etc. However, this boom in the Indian real estate sector is
restricted to areas such as commercial office space, retail and housing
sectors.
Currently, the sector is facing a major resource crunch. There is an
obvious lack of qualified skilled people/workers in construction firms, PMC
firms, etc. Along with this, the manpower shortage is the shortage of
availability of relevant statistics which has raised an ambiguity in the
minds of people as to how much construction activity is actually taking
place and one can not actually gauge the demand and supply trends
accurately. As a majority of developers are concerned about developing
up-market and high-class apartments/villas and penthouses, the
opportunities and issues of affordable, low cost housing in India have been
ignored so far, as a result there is a dearth of low cost affordable units.
Also, one of the negative versions of Indian real estate industry is that
there is not much respect for sustainability so the concept of green
buildings, proper waste disposal methods and the longevity of the product
are often ignored.
15
5
UNITECH
COMPANY PROFILE:-
Unitech Ltd. Established in 1971 by a group of technocrats led by Mr.
Ramesh Chandra, Unitech has over the last three decades emerged as
one of the leading business houses in India. Apart from the fl agship
business of real estate development, the group has interests in varied
businesses such as Fund management, Infrastructure development and
Transmission tower manufacturing. The Group has recently ventured into
mobile telecom business.
The Group’s fl agship company Unitech Limited is a leading real
estate developer in India with a market capitalization of around USD 6
billion. Unitech has been at the forefront of the rapid transformation of
Indian real estate sector in the recent years.
The Company was incorporated on 9th February1971 as United Technical
Consultants Pvt. Ltd., and was converted into a public Limited Company
on 3rd October1985. The company carries on construction of industrial
projects on a turnkey basis and execution of Housing Projects and export
orders.
15
6
The Company was promoted by a group of technocrats, proficient in the
field of soil and foundation engineering and managed By Professionals.
The Company undertakes projects both in India and Abroad.
Unitech has the most diversified product mix comprising residential,
commercial/Information Technology (IT) parks, Retail, Amusement parks,
Hotels and Special Economic Zones. It is known for the quality of its
product and is the first real estate developer to have been certified ISO
9001:2000 certificate in North India.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN DEC 31, 2008

Category of Number of Total number of
shareholder shareholders shares % of shares

Shareholding of Promoter and Promoter Group
A) Indian 38 1091232375 67.22
B) Foreign 1 3822000 0.24
Public shareholding
A) Institutions 193 127446588 7.86
B) Non-institutions 499315 400874037 24.69
Total 499547 1623375000 100.01
Unitech Share Price from 01-Jan-08 to 31-Mar-09
15
7
UnitechShare Price from01-Jan-08 to 31-Mar-09
Resista
600 nce
500
level
Price
400
300
200
Support
100 Level
11/1/2008
10/1/2008
12/1/2008
1/1/2008
2/1/2008
3/1/2008
4/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
2/1/2009
3/1/2009
36
5/1/2008
0
Date
SHARE PERFORMANCE CHART ON
BSE
15
8
400
350
300
250
200
150
High Price
100
Low Price
50
10/1/2008
11/1/2008
12/1/2008
0
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
2/1/2009
3/1/2009
• 52 Week High 338.00 05-May-2008
• 52 Week Low 21.80 28-Nov-2008
• All Time High
• All Time Low 21.80 28-Nov-2008
15
9
OCTOBER 2008
U n it e c h S h a r e P r ic e o f O c t - 0 8
150
100 Resistanc
Price
50 e level
0 101.0
10/1/08
10/3/08
10/7/08
10/9/08
10/5/08
10/11/08
10/17/08
10/19/08
10/21/08
10/25/08
10/27/08
10/29/08
10/13/08
10/15/08
10/23/08
10/31/08
Da te Support
level
30.00
• HIGH 115.40 01-OCT-2008
• LOW 31.00 24-OCT-2008
• Fall of rs.84.40 within a month
• Sale is decrease by 75%.
• Rate was down because Net Profit Decrease by 62%. & Expenditure
increased by 62% .
NOVEMBER 2008
16
0
U ni t ec h S har e P r i c e o f N o v - 0 8 Resistanc
60 e level
40
56.00
Price
20
0
11/7/08
11/3/08
11/5/08
11/9/08
11/11/08
11/13/08
11/15/08
11/17/08
11/19/08
11/21/08
11/23/08
11/25/08
11/27/08
Support
Da t e level
23.00
• HIGH 56.55 10-NOV-2008
• LOW 23.15 28-NOV-2008
increased by 62%
DECEMBER 2008
16
1
U ni t e c h S ha r e P r i c e o f D ec - 0 8
Resistanc
50 e level
40
30 45.00
Price
20
10
0
08
08
08
08
08
Support
20
20
/20
/20
/20
/1/
/8/
/15
/22
/29
Date
12
12
level
12
12
12
32.00
• HIGH 45.75 22-DEC-2008
• LOW 24.00 01-DEC-2008
increased by 62%
• Inflation is decrease by 2 % from last month.
JANUARY 2009
16
2
Unite ch Share Price of Jan-09
50 Resistanc
40
30 e level
Price
20 47.00
10
0
09
09
9
00
00
00
20
20
Support
/2
/2
/2
1/
8/
15
22
29
1/
1/
1/ Date
1/
1/
level
26.50
• HIGH 47.60 05-JAN-2009
• LOW 26.95 23-JAN-2009
• Fall of rs. 20.75 within a month.
• Inflation is decrease by 1 % from last month.
FEBRUARY 2009
16
3
33
Unite ch Shar e Price of Fe b-09 Resistanc
32
31 e level
30
32.10
Price
29
28
27
26
25
2/6/2009
2/2/2009
2/4/2009
2/8/2009
2/10/2009
2/14/2009
2/16/2009
2/18/2009
2/20/2009
2/22/2009
2/24/2009
2/26/2009
2/12/2009
Support
Date
level
27.65
• HIGH 32.15 11-FEB-2009
• LOW 27.75 05-FEB-2009
• Fall of rs. 04.40 within a month
• Inflation is decrease by 2.10 % from last month.
MARCH 2009
Unite ch Share Price of M ar-09

40 Resistanc
30
e level
Price
20
10 36.40
0
9
09
09
9
00
00
00
20
20
2
/2
2/
9/
/
16
23
30
3/
3/
Support
3/
3/
3/
Date
level
24.70
16
4
• HIGH 36.50 26-MAR-2009
• LOW 24.80 09-MAR-2009
• Fall of rs. 11.70 within a month
• Inflation is decrease by .2.80 % from last month.
Fir s t We e k of Jan'09 Resistance

50 level 47.50
40
30
20
10
0
1/ 5/2009 1/6/2009 1/ 7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/2009
D ate
Support
level
26.50
16
5
• HIGH 47.60 05-JAN-2009
• LOW 36.00 09-JAN-2009
• Fall of rs. 11.60 within a week
Se cond We e k of Jan'09
Resistanc
36 e level
34
34.80
32
Price
30
28
26
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
Date
Support
level
29.40
16
6
• HIGH 34.95 14-JAN-2009
• LOW 29.45 16-JAN-2009
16
7
Resistanc
e level
31.90
Support
level
26.80
T h ir d W e e k Of Ja n '09
34
32
30
Price
28
26
24
1 /1 9 /20 09 1/20/20 09 1 /21/20 09 1/22/2 0 09 1/23/20 09
DA t e
• HIGH 31.95 19-JAN-2009
• LOW 26.95 23-JAN-2009
16
8
Resistanc
e level
32.50
Support
level
27.15
For th Wee k of Jan'09
33
32
31
30
29
Price
28
27
26
25
24
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 1/29/2009 1/30/2009
Date
• HIGH 32.50 30-JAN-2009
• LOW 27.15 27-JAN-2009
16
9
Resistanc
e level
29.30
Support
level
27.75
Fir s t We e k o f Fe b'09
29.5
29
28.5
Price
28
27.5
27
26.5
2/2/2009 2/3/2009 2/4/2009 2/5/2009 2/6/2009
Date
17
0
• HIGH 29.30 02-FEB-2009
• LOW 27.75 05-FEB-2009
Se cond We e k of Fe b'09
33
32 Resistanc
31 e level
Price
30
29
32.10
28
27
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009 Support
Date level
31.10
• HIGH 32.15 11-FEB-2009
• LOW 29.05 09-FEB-2009
17
1
Third Week of Feb'09
30.5
30
29.5 Resistanc
29
e level
Price
28.5
28
27.5 29.25
27
26.5
2/16/2009 2/17/2009 2/18/2009 2/19/2009 2/20/2009
Date Support
level
28.30
• HIGH 30.20 16-FEB-2009
• LOW 28.05 20-FEB-2009
17
2
Resistanc
e level
28.90
Support
level
28.10
Fo u r t h W e e k o f Fe b '09
29
28.8
28.6
28.4
Price
28.2
28
27.8
27.6
2/24/2 009 2 /25 /200 9 2 /2 6 /2 0 09 2 /2 7 /2 0 09
Da te
• HIGH 28.90 26-FEB-2009
• LOW 28.10 25-FEB-2009
17
3
Resistanc
e level
26.60
Support
level
25.60
First Week of Mar'09
27.5
27
26.5
Price
26
25.5
25
24.5
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date
17
4
• HIGH 26.95 02-MAR-2009
• LOW 25.55 05-MAR-2009
Second Week of Mar'09
Resistanc
27
26.5 e level
26
25.5
26.50
Price
25
24.5
24
23.5
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009 Support
Date
level
25.00
• HIGH 26.50 13-MAR-2009
• LOW 25.05 12-MAR-2009
17
5
Resistanc
e level
27.10
Support
level
25.95
T hir d w e e k o f M ar '09
27.5
27
26.5
Price
26
25.5
25
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Date
• HIGH 27.15 19-MAR-2009
• LOW 25.95 17-MAR-2009
17
6
Resistanc
e level
36.00
Support
level
29.00
Fo u r th W e e k o f M ar '09
40
30
Price
20
10
0
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
Date
• HIGH 36.50 26-MAR-2009
• LOW 28.00 23-MAR-2009
17
7
YEARLY MARGIN FOR UNITCH LTD.
YEAR Avg. Margin Avg. Margin (%)
2008 15.931 8.935%
TILL MAR-09 2.747 8.666%
MONTHLY MARGIN FOR UNITECH LTD.

Month Monthly Avg. Margin Monthly Avg. Margin (%)
Jan-08 39.441 9.033%
Feb-08 28.867 7.764%
Mar-08 24.897 8.828%
Apr-08 13.305 4.748%
May-08 13.955 5.015%
Jun-08 14.098 7.320%
Jul-08 12.974 8.084%
Aug-08 8.935 5.249%
Sep-08 10.467 7.850%
Oct-08 11.745 19.132%
17
8
Nov-08 5.578 13.489%
Dec-08 4.007 11.342%
Jan-09 4.41 12.739%
Feb-09 1.953 6.629%
Mar-09 1.537 5.816%
Margin:-The Average Margin for UNITECH LTD. In the last one year and 3
months is 8.75% and Monthly Margin Range from 4-19%. The Margin at
0% Risk comes out 1.5% or Paisa 41 relating to current market price,
considering 15% as the Risk free margin for UNITECH LTD.
Financials:
• Strong asset base offsets short-term liquidity
concerns:Unitech reported a moderate financial performance in
17
9
Q2’09 due to the
liquidity crisis and a slowdown in the real estate sector. The
EBIDTA
margin improved considerably because of a drop in the construction
cost.We upgrade our rating from Hold to Buy due to the following
reasons:
• Huge land bank spread across the country: Unitech has 13,923
acres
of land spread across all major cities of the country. Nearly 70%
of the
land has been purchased from the government with clear
titles.
Approximately 70% of the land bank spreads across the four
cities of
Kolkata (35%), NCR (14%), Chennai (12%), and Vizag (9%).
• Operating margins likely to fall but remain at higher
levels: The
operating margin is likely to decline from the current 59.9% due
to the
expected fall in property prices and a shift in focus towards low-
margined
middle income housing. However, lower steel and cement prices
are
expected to partially offset the decline in the margins.
18
0
• Short-term liquidity likely to improve: Unitech is struggling
with short-
term liquidity concerns due to its high leverage and debt
obligation of
Rs. 27 bn due by the end of FY09. We believe that it can tide over
thecurrent situation through the sale and monetization of its assets.
• Attractive valuation: Unitech’s stock currently trades at a
43.4%discount to our fair value estimate of Rs. 46, which
incorporates the
substantial decline in real estate prices across all segments. We
believe
that the stock has a long-term upside potential as the Company
has ahuge land bank at diversified locations, a strong asset
base, and the expertise and execution skills.
Quarterly Data Q2'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 YOY% QOQ%
(Rs. mn,except per share data)
Net Sales 10135 10317 9831 -3.00% -4.70%
EBITDA 5071 6084 6092 20.20% 0.10%
Net Profit 4101 4233 3589 -12.50% 15.20%
Margins(%)
EBITDA 50.00% 59.00 62.00%
18
1
NPM 40.50% 41.00 36.50%
Per Share Data
(Rs.)
EPS 2.5 2.6 2.2 -12.60% -15.20%
Result Highlights
Unitech’s consolidated revenue declined 3% yoy, from Rs. 10.1
bn in
Q2’08 to Rs. 9.8 bn in Q2’09, due to the slowdown in the
construction and
real estate sales. Construction revenue declined 64% yoy, from Rs.
517.9
mn in Q2’08 to Rs. 186.7 mn in Q2’09. However, revenue increased
6.9%
yoy in H1’09. We expect revenue to fall at a CAGR of 15.4%
between
2008 and 2010, due to the liquidity crisis and the slowdown in
demand.
In spite of the decline in revenue, the EBIDTA margin
increased
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2
considerably to 62% in Q2’09, from 50% in Q2’08, due to a drop in
cement
and steel prices, resulting in a significant 28.3% drop in the real
estate
construction cost. The margin for H1’09 increased 6.5 pts on a yoy
basis,
from 53.4% in H1’08 to 59.9% in H1’09. We believe that the
margin will
come under pressure due to the expected fall in property prices.
Unitech’s second quarter net profit declined 12.5% yoy to Rs.
3.6 bn (Rs. 2.2 per share) in Q2’09, from Rs. 4.1 bn (Rs. 2.5 per
share) in Q2’08. Net profit margin declined by 396 bps from
40.5% in Q2’08 to 36.5% in Q2’09. This was mainly driven by a
69.8% yoy rise in interest expenses, from Rs.0.79 bn in Q2’08 to
Rs.1.3 bn in Q2’09. We believe that the net profit margin will drop
further because of the high interest cost and the shift towards low-
margined middle income housing.
Quarterly Q2'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 YOY% QOQ TTM TTM YOY%
Data % ENDED ENDEDQ
18
3
Q2'08 2'09
( Rs. mn,except per
share data
Revenue
Real 8303 9140 8077 - - 39242 37331 -
Estate 2.70% 11.60 4.90%
Construc 518 316 187 -64% - 2338 1739 -
tion 40.90 25.60
% %
Consultin 772 251 990 28.30 294.30 1131 1883 66.50
g % % %
Hospitali 26 31 32 26.70 4.90% 103 132 28.30
ty % %
Electrical 140 206 208 49.10 1.30% 720 790 9.70%
Others 377 373 336 - - 792 1294 63.30
10.90 9.90% %
Total 10135 10317 9831 44326
EBIT
Real 6049 6049 5257 - - 27249 24769 -
Estate 13.10 13.10 9.10%
% %
Construc 42 42 37 - - 116 156 34.90
tion 10.60 10.60

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4
% % %
Consultin 251 251 984 292.10 292.10 733 1789 144.10
g % % %
Hospitali 2 2 0 89.50 89.50 10 -4 -
ty % % 135.00
Electrical 8 8 -22 NM NM 45 30 -
33.90
Others 24 24 7 - - 96 139 44.40
72.40 72.40 %
% %
Total 6376 6376 6264 28250 26880
EBIT
Margins
Real 72.90 66.20 65.10 69.40% 66.30%
Estate % % %
Construc 8.00% 13.10 19.90 5.00% 9.00%
tion % %
Consultin 32.50 99.90 99.40 64.80% 95.00%
g % % %
Hospitali 7.50% 6.20% 0.60% 10.00% -2.70%
ty
Electrical 5.60% 3.80% - 6.20% 3.70%
10.40
18
5
%
Others 6.40% 6.50% 2.00% 12.20% 10.80%
Outlook
The real estate market is facing a deep-rooted slowdown due to
the
combination of the liquidity crisis and the high interest rates. Residential
prices have declined up to 25% from their peaks in the last few
months, while commercial and retail rentals have declined nearly 20%
in some major metropolitan areas. Besides, banks have tightened the
credit and reduced the loan-to-value amount for home loans. Therefore,
we expect the real estate market to respond with reduced demand and a
significant price downswing over the next 12-24 months.
Unitech’s second quarter financial performance was adversely
affected
due to the liquidty crisis and the slump in real estate demand. The
Company is highly leveraged with a debt-equity ratio of 2.4x and a
trailing
6-month interest coverage ratio of 5.0. Its debt stood at Rs. 85.5 bn as of
March 31, 2008. The Company has a debt obligation of Rs. 27 bn, due by
March 2009. The recent deal with Telenor, a Norwegian-based telecom
company, to divest a 60% stake in its telecom venture for Rs 61 bn will
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6
act as a small breather, allowing the Company to partially reduce its
debt burden on its balace sheet.
We believe that in the prevailing low liquidity environment, the
Company may not be able to mobilise funds from commercial banks
as the latter have stopped lending to realty firms due to the high-risk
weightage of the sector.
Therefore, the Company is actively looking to raise debt through private
equity in the current financial year to fund the ongoing development
projects. Further, it is also planning to reduce its debt burden
through the the sale of office space, land, and a hotel in the next 3-4
months. We expect that the aggressive capitalstructure may force it
to monetize some of its projects before they become economically
optimal, thereby sacrificing some returns.
We believe that the Company’s operating margin will fall from the present
59.9% due to its strategic shift of focus towards the low-margined
middle income housing (affordable homes) and the expected fall in
property prices. In addition, housing projects in locations such as
Vizag will further pressurise the margin. However, construction costs
are falling due to the decline in cement and steel prices. We expect
these costs to come down further as commodity prices are decreasing
because of the expected global recession. Hence, the fall in property
prices is likely to offset the gains expected from the lower raw
material costs. As a result, the operating margin is expected to fall from
18
7
the current levels.
We have arrived at the NAV per share of Rs. 96, which
incorporates the substantial decline in real estate prices and a
15% dilution of Unitech’s stake at the project level. We have used
a 17.2% cost of equity to value the Company and have arrived at a
WACC of 15.4%.
Unitech is one the large listed companies that does not disclose its
quarterly balance sheet and cash flow statement to the investors. As a
result, I have limited visibility of the Company’s earnings growth and
current liquidity situation. Considering the weak demand scenario and the
limited financial information available, I believe the stock will trade at a
discount to its NAV, which we have assumed at 25%.
My fair value estimate for the Company is therefore Rs. 46 per share,
which represents a 76.6% upside to the current share price. Hence, I
upgrade our rating on the stock from Hold to Buy.
Year To FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E CAGR(
March E %)
Rs.mn,except per
share data
Net Sales 6452 9266 32883 41404 15.40%
EBITDA 779 1806 20109 23687 23.70%
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8
Net Profit 335 925 12667 16619 30.20%
Margins(%)
EBITDA 12.10 19.50 61.20 57.20 54.00 46.50%
% % % % %
NPM 5.20% 10.00 38.50 40.10 30.70 27.30%
% % % %
Per Share Data (Rs.)
EPS 0.2 0.6 7.8 10.2 5.8 5 30.20%
PER(x) 14.2x 40.7x 62.6x 2.6x 4.5x 5.3x
RATIO ANALYSIS:-
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9
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR JUNE
MONTH
Market is showing uptrend in the last two weeks and SENSEX is now at
14500. Unitech share price is also showing uptrend due to highly
correlation with market so for next 1 month Unitech share price is
expected to achieve a new support level of Rs.77 points but looking at the
international market we can say that international investors are bit
optimistic so market can sustain at this high for some more time.
Domestic News
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0
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo
rate and CRR, which can keep market interest for some
more time. Inflation is also under control and it is now at
all time Low (As on 15th May 2009) etc.
“Looking at the above given information we can project the new
Support Level at 77* points and Resistance Level at 107* points
for the Second week of June”.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL FOR THE COMING MONTHS OF
2009
Beginning of June the news could be favorable but will the
same Support and Resistance Level maintain for the rest
of the weeks; our team have done research on it and
made the conclusion that it will not be maintaining the
same levels.
REASONS:
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1
• Market fall is expected because it can’t sustain at this level for
• As it can be noticed from the 3rd quarter result of 2008 that the net
profit is just 13% of the total sales. So its effect will definitely be
seen in the share price of the company. The share price of the
company can reduce in the coming weeks due to this negative
news.
• This is also one of our prediction for the coming weeks that the
support level of the share price will be at Rs77 and the resistance
level of the share will be at Rs107 due to the reason that the
support and resistance level of the shares in the past 15 weeks
remain at a level below Rs77 and Rs 107.
• 4th Quarter Results are expected in the month of April and it is
expected that the result will be better in comparison to the last
quarter. Price of the share can move a little bit upward but it will
remain in the support and resistance level given above.
• Inflation data is going negative for the market, so it can affect the
share price of the company.
“Looking at the above given information our Team has
projected new Support Level for the week of 3rd and 4th will be
Rs.75 and Resistance level will be Rs.110 points”.
Key Risks :-
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2
• Failure to secure private equity deals in projects may result in a
lack of
funding and could lead to delays in execution. This may also exert
pressure on funding costs, thereby negatively affecting the net
margins.
• Delays in project completion and a slowdown in residential demand
due to high interest rates would hurt the Company’s growth
prospects.
SWOT Analysis of Unitech
Strengths
1. Unitech is the second largest engineering and construction companies in India
with a strong international presence in regions of South Asia, the Asia Pacific,
the Middle East, the Caspian, Africa and the United Kingdom. It has over 40
subsidiaries spread across the globe who have engaged with over 200 clients
implementing over 250 projects in over 40 countries.
2. Unitech has significant experience and very strong track record. Some of its
achievement are as follows
• It has constructed more than 8000 kilometers of pipelines
• It has constructed six million cubic meters of storage tanks and terminal
capacity
• It has executed 12 refinery modernization projects.

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3
• It has executed onshore and offshore pipelines under extreme climatic
condition and difficult terrain including swampy and marshy terrain.
1. Unitech is one of the few companies to have a in-house comprehensive
mechanical, civil and insulation work capability for cryogenic LPG and LNG
tanks and terminals.
2. It provides engineering and construction services in diverse industries as
follows
Oil and gas projects including pipelines, storage tanks and terminals and
process facilities
• Infrastructure projects
• Power plants projects
• Civil construction projects including highways, flyovers, bridges,
elevated railroads, ports, MRTs and LRTs
• Specialty sectors like health care and industrial civil infrastructure
• Plant and facility management projects
1. Its core capabilities lie in process and plant engineering, heavy civil
engineering and building.
2. Its diverse nature of businesses allows avoiding dependency on any one
industry or nature of projects. Also its operation is spread across several
19
4
geographic which enable it to decrease dependence on any one economy or
project activity.
3. Unitech enjoys long term relationship with its reputed clients which reward it
with repeat orders from several of its domestic and international clients
despite increasing competitions. With this is in good position to capitalize on
ever increasing global demand for energy, infrastructure development and
building projects. Its acquisition of Sembawang and Simon carves which
increases its geographic reach of operations and providing a wider range of
services.
4. Unitech has a highly qualified and motivated employee base with a strong
proven management team. As on 31 March 2007, It employs directly or
indirectly over 3600 full time employees and 6,200 strong temporary contract
labor for their projects. There promoters has more than 25 years of experience
in the construction industry.
5. Unitech has over 9000 pieces of construction and engineering equipment
which includes pipe laying equipment, recently added horizontal directional
drilling rigs, swamp excavators, pilling rigs. It also includes 15 spreads of
pipeline equipment capable of laying pipelines up to 56 inches in diameter. It
has potential to simultaneously execute several projects. It also has two
workshops and yards to maximize peak performance functioning, one in
Banmore which is in Madhya Pradesh and other which serves as base camp
19
5
and yard in Sungaipuran, Indonesia. Another advantage it sees owning and
managing a large fleet of sophisticated engineering equipment is that it helps
in maintain higher EBITDA margins.
Weakness
1. Unitech is exposed to uncertain political and economic environments,
government instability and legal systems, law and regulations of 18 different
countries it operates around the world which may be very different from what
is prevailing in India.
2. The company has grown by leaps and bounds in last few years which may
create obstacles to manage growth and reduce profitability and operations.
3. Major projects are subject to pre-qualified based on several criteria like
experience, technology capacity and performance, safe record, financial
strength and size of previous projects. Recently in the energy and petroleum
sector major emphasis on increasing developing larger, more technically
complex projects and awarding to a fully integrated project contractor.
Though contracts are obtained through competitive bidding process but pre-
qualification plays a key role.
4. Unitech ability to qualify only to a certain value and high concentration on
projects with potential high margins may hinder from taking up such large
complex projects.
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6
5. Unitech is entering into a number of new businesses which require significant
expense and financial and operational resources. Its entry into real estate
development in India and providing onshore integrated drilling services in the
oil and gas sector may not prove unprofitable because of limited experience.
Unitech Investment in Pipavav Shipyard is exposed to execution risk since it
is yet to commence commercial operations.
6. Due to its presence in pipelines it has helped it to record highest operating
margins in the industry buts increasing level of exposure to road projects has
led to declining margins.
7. Moreover, the company is into capital-intensive segments and the higher
depreciation costs and interest’s costs keep its net margins at the same level
other prominent competitors.
Opportunities
1. High level of investments expected in the existing areas of specialization
2. Has vast international presence in pipeline projects related to oil and gas
sector
3. Increase in the level of road investments and BOT road projects will help in
booking more infrastructure orders.
19
7
4. Around the world like United States and whole of Europe has opted for 10%
blending of bio-ethanol take place in diesel and petrol within a period of 4 to
5 years. Brazil,
5. Unitech can take up to 100 meter water depth in offshore pipeline. There is a
large opportunity on account of the replacement of the old lines in Bombay
high and south basin sea
6. As oil has crossed $100 mark there will be large quantum of money coming
into oil producing nations mainly Middle East countries which will translate
into multiple increases in its own capex in Oil and Gas sector.
7. There are huge opportunities in power with a ambitious target growth of 12%
in the eleventh plan. Also with Indo-US nuclear deal in the pipeline. Unitech
is in a good position to capitalize in this especially in hydel and nuclear which
are constructive intense projects.
Threats
1. International contracts are usually fixed price contract .Therefore business is
exposed to commodity price volatility as a sharp increase in raw material
prices may impact margins
2. Corporate capital expenditure and infrastructure investments are interest rate
sensitive. Therefore significant increase in interest rate may reduce the
investments
3. Global and domestic hydrocarbon capital expenditure are prone to oil prices.
Any reduction in oil prices may reduce investment in hydrocarbon industry
19
8
4. As a major portion of revenue of the company is from outside India. Sharp
fluctuation in currency may impact profitability.
5. The business activities of the company are sensitive to weather conditions
especially its operation in the Caspian region and the Middle East. During
extreme high temperature or difficult working condition may hamper
construction activities and lead to inadequate use of resources.
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9
CHAPTER 6
20
0
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
The growing influence of global developments on the Indian economy was
manifest in the surge in capital inflows in 2007-08, a phenomenon
observed earlier in other emerging market economies. This is a natural
concomitant of the robust macroeconomic fundamentals like high growth,
relative stability in prices, healthy financial sector and high returns on
investment. Sometimes, it also reflects the rigidities in the economy,
particularly the interest differentials.
20
1
The strength, resilience and stability of the country’s external sector are
reflected by various indicators. These include a steady accretion to
reserves, moderate levels of current account deficit, changing
composition of capital inflows, flexibility in exchange rates, sustainable
external debt levels with elongated maturity profile and an increase in
capital inflows.
The current account has followed an inverted “U” shaped pattern during
the period from 2001-02 to 2006-07, rising to a surplus of over 2 per cent
of GDP in 2003-04. Thereafter it has returned close to its post-1990s
reform average, with a current account deficit of 1.2 per cent in 2005-06
and 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2006-07.
For the Educomp solutions Company is likely to post very high growth rate
for a long time. Revenue figures are expected to show a CAGR of 70% for
the period 2009-2011, 35% for the period 2011-2014 and 20% for the
period 2014-2016.
We forecast strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see
limited risks to estimates given.EBITDA margins are likely to improve as
revenue share of high margin retail and online business is likely to
improve considerably. We expect ROE to double and settle in the range
between 30-35%.
20
2
For the Icici Bank NII grew 2% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to Rs19.9b. Loans
declined 1% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs2.1t. The sales have increased by
0.014% in Q3.Operating profit has decreased on the assumption that
either operating expenses have increased or there is an increase in
NPA’s.As there is an increase in gross profit & EPS, it shows that the
demand of the share will increase in the future.
And for the Unitech Unitech’s consolidated revenue declined 3% yoy,
from Rs. 10.1 bn in Q2’08 to Rs. 9.8 bn in Q2’09, due to the slowdown in
the construction and
real estate sales. Short-term liquidity likely to improve. Operating margins
likely to fall but remain at higher levels. Huge land bank spread across
the country. Strong asset base offsets short-term liquidity concerns.
Total Income has increased from Rs 14562.20 million for the quarter
ended December 31, 2007 to Rs 18228.70 million for the quarter ended
December 31, 2008.Tata Power will hold 74% equity and IOCL will hold
26% equity in the proposed Joint Venture Company.
20
3
So with this we find that market sentiments and the announcements
effects the share prices of the companies. and equity research helps to
find out the support and resistence level of the share prices and help us to
predict the future prices of the stocks.
ANNEXURE
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4
ANNEXURE
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
BALANCE SHEET
Educomp In Rs.
Solutions Cr.
Balance Sheet
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital 4.47 4.47 15.96 15.99 17.25
Equity Share Capital 4.47 4.47 15.96 15.99 17.25
Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Reserves 12.59 18.92 74.35 98.71 269.57
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
Networth 17.06 23.39 90.31 114.7 286.82
Secured Loans 2.93 4.37 9.92 17.55 52.3
Unsecured Loans 0 0 0 107.14 314.94
Total Debt 2.93 4.37 9.92 124.69 367.24
19.99 27.76 100.23 239.39 654.06
20
5
Total Liabilities
Application Of Funds
Gross Block 18.7 24.62 35.08 93.62 264.53
Less: Accum. 8.86 13.04 18.34 21.82 53.18
Depreciation
Net Block 9.84 11.58 16.74 71.8 211.35
Capital Work in 0.28 2 6.65 7.59 20.08
Progress
Investments 1.1 1.74 1.55 28.11 70.98
Inventories 0.85 1.01 1.74 3.25 1.41
Sundry Debtors 13.15 19.13 25.16 49.35 114.46
Cash and Bank 1.3 3.06 28.6 30.77 54.34
Balance
Total Current Assets 15.3 23.2 55.5 83.37 170.21
Loans and Advances 1.69 1.99 6.03 21.93 36.44
Fixed Deposits 0 0 31.06 64.19 224.69
Total CA, Loans & 16.99 25.19 92.59 169.49 431.34
Advances
Deffered Credit 0 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities 8.22 12.74 6.63 23.73 70.11
Provisions 0 0 10.75 13.94 9.6
Total CL & Provisions 8.22 12.74 17.38 37.67 79.71
Net Current Assets 8.77 12.45 75.21 131.82 351.63
Miscellaneous 0 0 0.08 0.06 0.04
Expenses
19.99 27.77 100.23 239.38 654.08
Total Assets
Contingent Liabilities 0 0 17.44 17.95 29.24
20
6
Book Value (Rs) 38.15 52.3 56.59 71.75 166.31
PROFIT AND LOSS
Educomp In Rs.
Solutions Cr.
Profit & Loss account
Income
Sales Turnover 24.75 29.82 52.3 106.57 262.1
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Net Sales 24.75 29.82 52.3 106.57 262.1
Other Income 1.26 2.29 1.07 5.07 14.8
Stock Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0
Total Income 26.01 32.11 53.37 111.64 276.9
Expenditure
Raw Materials 6.86 3.37 0 0 0
Power & Fuel Cost 0 0 0 0 0
Employee Cost 5.49 6.35 7.5 10.51 25.58
Other Manufacturing 0 0 9.54 30.42 79.73
20
7
Expenses
Selling and Admin 0 0 7.63 12.15 18.83
Expenses
Miscellaneous 6.06 6.74 1.17 2.2 11.62
Expenses
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Total Expenses 18.41 16.46 25.84 55.28 135.76
Operating Profit 6.34 13.36 26.46 51.29 126.34
PBDIT 7.6 15.65 27.53 56.36 141.14
Interest 0.38 0.55 0.71 1.99 5.82
PBDT 7.22 15.1 26.82 54.37 135.32
Depreciation 3.73 4.89 5.31 9.39 32.3
Other Written Off 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02
Profit Before Tax 3.49 10.21 21.49 44.96 103
Extra-ordinary items -0.42 -0.06 -0.02 -0.74 0
PBT (Post Extra-ord 3.07 10.15 21.47 44.22 103
Items)
Tax 1.61 3.83 7.57 15.64 32.94
Reported Net Profit 1.89 6.33 13.92 28.65 70.06
Total Value Addition 11.55 13.09 25.85 55.28 135.76
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Dividend 0 0 2.39 3.31 4.32
Corporate Dividend 0 0 0.34 0.56 0.73
Tax
Per share data (annualised)
Shares in issue (lakhs) 44.73 44.73 159.6 159.85 172.47
Earning Per Share 4.22 14.15 8.72 17.92 40.62
(Rs)
Equity Dividend (%) 0 0 15 20 25
Book Value (Rs) 38.15 52.3 56.59 71.75 166.31
20
8
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Educomp Solutions In Rs.
Cr.
Cash Flow
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
10.16 21.47 44.9 103
20
9
Net Profit Before Tax
Net Cash From Operating 8.46 11.24 18.04 68.1
Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from -8.27 -14.61 -88.46 -215.72
Investing Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from 1.09 60.8 109.07 330.66
Financing Activities
Net (decrease)/increase In 1.27 57.43 35.3 183.04
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Opening Cash & Cash 1.05 2.23 59.66 94.96
Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash 2.32 59.66 94.96 279.03
Equivalents
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0
ICICI BANK
BALANCE SHEET
ICICI Bank In Rs.
Cr.
Balance Sheet
Capital and Liabilities:
Total Share Capital 1,086.75 1,239.83 1,249.34 1,462.68 1,463.29
Equity Share Capital 736.75 889.83 899.34 1,112.68 1,113.29
Share Application Money 0.02 0 0 0 0
Preference Share Capital 350 350 350 350 350
Reserves 11,813.20 21,316.16 23,413.92 45,357.53 48,419.73
Net Worth 12,899.97 22,555.99 24,663.26 46,820.21 49,883.02
Deposits 99,818.78 1,65,083.1 2,30,510.1 2,44,431.0 2,18,347.8
7 9 5 2
Borrowings 33,544.50 38,521.91 51,256.03 65,648.43 67,323.69
Total Debt 1,33,363.2 2,03,605.0 2,81,766.2 3,10,079.4 2,85,671.5
8 8 2 8 1
Other Liabilities & 21,396.17 25,227.88 38,228.64 42,895.39 43,746.43
Provisions
Total Liabilities 1,67,659.4 2,51,388.9 3,44,658.1 3,99,795.0 3,79,300.9
2 5 2 8 6
Assets
Cash & Balances with RBI 6,344.90 8,934.37 18,706.88 29,377.53 17,536.33
Balance with Banks, 6,585.07 8,105.85 18,414.45 8,663.60 12,430.23
21
1
Money at Call
Advances 91,405.15 1,46,163.1 1,95,865.6 2,25,616.0 2,18,310.8
1 0 8 5
Investments 50,487.35 71,547.39 91,257.84 1,11,454.3 1,03,058.3
4 1
Gross Block 5,525.65 5,968.57 6,298.56 7,036.00 7,443.71
Accumulated Depreciation 1,487.61 1,987.85 2,375.14 2,927.11 3,642.09
Net Block 4,038.04 3,980.72 3,923.42 4,108.89 3,801.62
Capital Work In Progress 96.3 147.94 189.66 0 0
Other Assets 8,702.59 12,509.57 16,300.26 20,574.63 24,163.62
1,67,659.4 2,51,388.9 3,44,658.1 3,99,795.0 3,79,300.9
0 5 1 7 6
Total Assets
Contingent Liabilities 97,507.79 1,19,895.7 1,77,054.1 3,71,737.3 8,03,991.9
8 8 6 2
Bills for collection 9,803.67 15,025.21 22,717.23 29,377.55 36,678.71
Book Value (Rs) 170.35 249.55 270.37 417.64 445.17
PROFIT AND LOSS
ICICI Bank In Rs. Cr.

Profit & Loss account
Income
Interest Earned 9,409.89 13,784.50 22,994.29 30,788.34 31,092.55
Other Income 3,416.23 5,036.62 6,962.95 8,878.85 8,117.76
Total Income 12,826.12 18,821.12 29,957.24 39,667.19 39,210.31
Expenditure
Interest expended 6,570.89 9,597.45 16,358.50 23,484.24 22,725.93
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2
Employee Cost 737.41 1,082.29 1,616.75 2,078.90 1,971.70
Selling and Admin 1,040.49 2,360.72 4,900.67 5,834.95 5,977.72
Expenses
Depreciation 590.36 623.79 544.78 578.35 678.6
Miscellaneous Expenses 1,881.77 2,616.78 3,426.32 3,533.03 4,098.22
Capitalised
Operating Expenses 3,177.78 5,274.23 8,849.86 10,855.18 10,795.14
Provisions & 1,072.25 1,409.35 1,638.66 1,170.05 1,931.10
Contingencies
10,820.92 16,281.03 26,847.02 35,509.47 35,452.17
Total Expenses
2,005.20 2,540.07 3,110.22 4,157.73 3,758.13
Net Profit for the Year
Extraordionary Items 0 0 0 0 -0.58
Profit brought forward 53.09 188.22 293.44 998.27 2,436.32
Total 2,058.29 2,728.29 3,403.66 5,156.00 6,193.87
Equity Dividend 632.96 759.33 901.17 1,227.70 1,224.58
Corporate Dividend Tax 90.1 106.5 153.1 149.67 151.21
Earning Per Share (Rs) 27.22 28.55 34.59 37.37 33.78
Equity Dividend (%) 85 85 100 110 110
Book Value (Rs) 170.35 249.55 270.37 417.64 445.17
Appropriations
Transfer to Statutory 547 248.69 1,351.12 1,342.31 2,008.42
Reserves
Transfer to Other 600.01 1,320.34 0 0.01 0.01
Reserves
21
3
Proposed 723.06 865.83 1,054.27 1,377.37 1,375.79
Dividend/Transfer to Govt
Balance c/f to Balance 188.22 293.44 998.27 2,436.32 2,809.65
Sheet
Total 2,058.29 2,728.30 3,403.66 5,156.01 6,193.87
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
ICICI Bank In Rs. Cr.

Cash Flow
2527.2 3096.61 3648.04 5056.1 5116.97
Net Profit Before Tax
Net Cash From Operating 9131.72 4652.93 23061.95 -11631.15 -14188.49
Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from -3445.24 -7893.98 -18362.67 -17561.11 3857.88
21
4
Net Cash (used in)/from -1227.13 7350.9 15414.58 29964.82 1625.36
Net (decrease)/increase 4459.34 4110.25 20081.1 683.55 -8074.57
In Cash and Cash
Equivalents
Opening Cash & Cash 8470.63 12929.97 17040.22 37357.58 38041.13
Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash 12929.97 17040.22 37121.32 38041.13 29966.56
Equivalents
UNITECH
21
5
BALANCE SHEET
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
Unitech
Balance Sheet In Rs. Cr.
Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital 12.49 12.49 12.49 162.34 324.68
Equity Share Capital 12.49 12.49 12.49 162.34 324.68
Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Reserves 138.2 161.42 212.05 998.66 1,819.14
Networth 150.69 173.91 224.54 1,161.00 2,143.82
Secured Loans 60.32 280.19 632.57 2,839.67 5,506.45
Unsecured Loans 71.33 43.63 54.2 765.39 2,611.08
Total Debt 131.65 323.82 686.77 3,605.06 8,117.53
Total Liabilities 282.34 497.73 911.31 4,766.06 10,261.35
Application Of Funds
Gross Block 41.34 50.86 83.17 99.87 132.05
Less: Accum. 23.55 25.51 28.44 30.24 35.96
Depreciation
Net Block 17.79 25.35 54.73 69.63 96.09
Capital Work in 622.09 1,106.14 1,824.66 4,408.59 7,083.41
Progress
Investments 83.39 166.57 282.39 518.93 1,397.99
21
6
Inventories 26.66 29.3 32.26 32.77 13.66
Sundry Debtors 61.92 57.14 76.54 97.55 739.74
Cash and Bank 26.65 56.56 74.73 128.62 236.01
Balance
Total Current Assets 115.23 143 183.53 258.94 989.41
Loans and Advances 168.5 310.77 866.97 3,090.88 7,624.58
Fixed Deposits 57.31 138.32 85.9 667.19 135.17
Total CA, Loans & 341.04 592.09 1,136.40 4,017.01 8,749.16
Advances
Deffered Credit 0 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities 770.19 1,364.74 2,314.33 3,798.30 6,316.27
Provisions 11.79 27.68 72.55 449.8 749.03
Total CL & Provisions 781.98 1,392.42 2,386.88 4,248.10 7,065.30
Net Current Assets -440.94 -800.33 -1,250.48 -231.09 1,683.86
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0
Expenses
Total Assets 282.33 497.73 911.3 4,766.06 10,261.35
59.87 376.88 434.87 1,640.51 2,325.69
Contingent Liabilities
Book Value (Rs) 120.67 139.27 179.81 14.3 13.21
21
7
PROFIT AND LOSS
Unitech In Rs.
Cr.
Profit & Loss
account
Income
Sales Turnover 373.95 509.33 653.13 2,441.74 2,486.79
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Net Sales 373.95 509.33 653.13 2,441.74 2,486.79
Other Income 6.19 17.86 21.52 155.38 482.36
Stock Adjustments 7.27 2.65 4.38 1.57 -19.11
Total Income 387.41 529.84 679.03 2,598.69 2,950.04
Expenditure
Raw Materials 27.41 58.33 65.45 80.53 26.46
21
8
Power & Fuel Cost 0 0 0 0 0
Employee Cost 10.38 15.95 31.11 65.62 98.43
Other Manufacturing 298.87 359.62 396.1 853.98 981.25
Expenses
Selling and Admin 14.81 22.6 30.84 38.06 52.7
Expenses
Miscellaneous 4.21 5.9 7.17 15.55 23.7
Expenses
Capitalised
355.68 462.4 530.67 1,053.74 1,182.54
Total Expenses
Operating Profit 25.54 49.58 126.84 1,389.57 1,285.14
PBDIT 31.73 67.44 148.36 1,544.95 1,767.50
Interest 9.54 21.92 37.14 193.71 393.38
PBDT 22.19 45.52 111.22 1,351.24 1,374.12
Depreciation 1.69 2.14 3.1 4.54 8.58
Other Written Off 0 0 0 0 0
Profit Before Tax 20.5 43.38 108.12 1,346.70 1,365.54
Extra-ordinary items 2.5 -1.05 -0.51 0.44 -0.38
PBT (Post Extra-ord 23 42.33 107.61 1,347.14 1,365.16
Items)
Tax 6.46 13.46 38.48 361.27 334.83
Reported Net Profit 14.07 29.92 69.64 983.56 1,030.68
Total Value Addition 328.26 404.07 465.22 973.2 1,156.09
21
9
Equity Dividend 3.75 5 16.23 40.58 40.58
Corporate Dividend 0.48 0.65 2.28 6.9 6.9
Tax
Shares in issue 124.88 124.88 124.88 8,116.88 16,233.75
(lakhs)
Earning Per Share 11.27 23.96 55.77 12.12 6.35
(Rs)
Equity Dividend (%) 30 40 10 25 12.5
Book Value (Rs) 120.67 139.27 179.81 14.3 13.21
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Unitech In Rs
Cr.
Cash Flow
Net Profit Before Tax 20.84 43.37 108.13 1344.83 1365.51
Net Cash From 60.35 87.66 -260.46 -1755.68 -3686.44
Operating Activities
22
0
Net Cash (used in)/from -26.08 -93.24 -121.05 -117.32 -771.21
Net Cash (used in)/from -0.04 116.5 347.25 2508.19 4033.01
Net 34.23 110.92 -34.26 635.19 -424.64
(decrease)/increase In
Cash and Cash
Equivalents
Opening Cash & Cash 49.73 83.96 194.89 160.63 795.82
Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash 83.96 194.89 160.63 795.82 371.18
Equivalents
22
1
BIBLIOGRAPHY
The books referred for the project work are:
Books
• Agarwal J.D., “Securities Analysis & Portfolio Management”
• Agarwal J.D., “Advance Financials Risk Analysis”
• Agarwal, J.D., “Readings for Financial Management”; IIF Publication.
• Brigham & Erhardt’s “Corporate Finance”, Thomson Publishers
Websites
• www.economictimes.com
• www.fmc.gov.in
• www.rbi.gov.in
• www.sebi.gov.in
• www.moneycontrol.com
• www.nseindia.com
• www.bseindia.com
22
2

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“STOCK PRICE ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT

Submitted for the partial fulfilment of the

AVDHESH KUMAR SHARMA

ROLL NO. 0823170010

UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF

Internal: Mr. Gaurav Bansal

I hereby declare that this project report prepared in lieu of a compulsory

paper for the partial fulfilment of Management of Business Administration

(Finance and Marketing) is my original work which I have submitted in

Gulf Bulls Securities Pvt. Ltd. to my guide Ms Anuja Shukla. No part of it

has been submitted to any other university or organisation.

knowledge and taken from reliable sources.

Avdhesh Kumar Sharma

views, ideas, suggestions, contribution and work involving many

I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Gulf Bulls Securities’

management for giving me an opportunity to be a part of their esteem

organization and enhance my knowledge by granting permission to do my

summer training project under their guidance.

I am grateful to Ms. Anuja Shukla, my guide, for his invaluable guidance

assistance and support whenever needed that has been instrumental in

completion of this project.

Mandeep. Their continuous guidance helped me immensely during the

Avdhesh Kumar Sharma

sort of gambling on their money. There is usual misconception in the

their hard earned money is not safe in the stock market.

someone is interested to invest on. The market doesn’t behave in an

again. It is quite responsive towards the economic activities taking place

in India as well as around the whole world.

The broad objective of the project is to understand the behavioural

share on a particular trading session as well as the impact of news coming

from different quarters of the market.

different companies of different sectors.

My project is divided into different chapters and they are

• Introduction of the company

• Analysis of Different Indian

The Indian economy remained on a high growth trajectory with renewed

dynamism is expected to gather further momentum with policy initiatives,

thrust on building infrastructure, emphasis on rural and agricultural

reforms that would further stimulate demand, growth and employment.

massive capital expenditure plans of Indian companies. 14 key

manufacturing sectors reported 26.5% increase in capital work-in-

progress on a y-o-y basis, thus indicating strong business outlook and

major findings contained therein are as follows:

It is the PSU companies that rule the roost in terms of market

capitalisation. The 54 PSU companies featured in the Top 500 list

command a high share of 25.2% in the total market capitalisation of the

Top 500 Companies.

various opportunities and threats that have emerged as a result of

change in the regulatory environment. The objective of the project is

In doing so I have used various selection techniques. For the

purpose of selecting the company’s products we have used the main

selection analysis is Technical analysis and fundamental analysis for ICICI

Bank, Educomp Solutions and Unitech. The intention behind such an

analysis is that to analyze the competitive advantage of the company by

particularly helpful in identifying areas of development. I have conducted

a detailed study of various real economy snapshots so as to consider the

growth opportunities of the economy as a whole.

Analysis of the company’s because to know how it is efficient in financial

weakness, opportunity and threats of each of the company’s. The swot

analysis would also provide an overview to an investor regarding the

future certainty and uncertainty.

investment to have greater returns at their end.