Professional Documents
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"isto#ram of RESI 1
N$r%al
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;arry out the <=2 hypothesis test for normality(
Stat / )asic Statistics / *ormalit' Test / +olmoorov,Smirnov
RESI 1
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Pro$a$ilit! Plot of RESI 1
N$r%al
$e' 3roduce a time series plot of the errors.
Stat / Time Series / Decomposition / Seasonal lenth ! / "dditive #odel / Trend plus
seasonal 2elect 245E2. and storing Trend$ %its and &esiduals. Graphs / &esidual
plots / %our in one
Residal
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Fitted %ale
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Residal
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&$servation &rder
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Normal Pro$a$ilit ! Plot of t 'e Residals Residals %erss t 'e Fit t ed %ales
"ist o#ram of t 'e Residals Residals %erss t 'e &rder of t 'e Dat a
Residal Plots for Sales
9o these look to be a good set of residuals>
+
+e are now going to build u) a mo,ing trend )lus seasonal -actor model.
-././ Using Minitab to produce the moving average(
Stat / Time Series / #ovin "verae / Variable 245E2 / #" lenth 4 / Centre the
movin averaes / Store #ovin averaes-
$?ou may need to plot a separate seuence graph of sales and moving average as the
4@ line seems displaced on the default production.'
Moving Average
Length $
0i,e Sales M1 Prei&t *rror
1 $8 * * *
2 58 * * *
3 5' 5'.250 * *
$ 65 5'.8'5 * *
5 50 58.500 * *
6 61 59.125 5'.250 3.'50
' 59 59.'50 5'.8'5 1.125
8 68 60.125 58.500 9.500
9 52 60.250 59.125 #'.125
10 62 60.3'5 59.'50 2.250
11 59 60.500 60.125 #1.125
12 69 60.'50 60.250 8.'50
13 52 61.125 60.3'5 #8.3'5
1$ 6$ 61.'50 60.500 3.500
15 60 62.3'5 60.'50 #0.'50
16 '3 62.625 61.125 11.8'5
1' 53 62.'50 61.'50 #8.'50
18 65 63.000 62.3'5 2.625
19 60 * 62.625 #2.625
20 '5 * 62.'50 12.250
I ndex
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M$#i* +#era*e
,e*t- 4
+..ura./ Measures
M+)E 8!9528
M+" 5!6250
MS" 46!9073
Variable
+.tual
Fits
(ovin# )vera#e Plot for Sales
Moving average line appears to be misplaced# so plot lines on a seuence graph.
-
I ndex
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Variable
Sales
+VER1
Time Series Plot of Sales, )%ER1
-./.. !ead the next column Seasonal and type in the appropriate seasonal factors as
produced by the deseasonal composition in "ask 1. "hese were A,.,1# B).0*# =).)+
and B,.&- for uarters ) to + respectively.
;alculate the F.TT/0 values as 4@E7) B 2E42C845
Calc / Calculator / Store result in variable Fitted / ./pression 4@E7) B
2E42C845
-./., 3lot a 2euence graph of 2ales and :itted values to see if this model is better.
Graph / Time Series Plot ( #ultiple 245E2 and :I""E9
9oes this model look a closer fit> It probably does but we need to compare the
residuals.
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Variable
Sales
Fitte0
Time Series Plot of Sales, Fitted
/
-./.0 ;alculate the residuals from this model as 7E2I* D 245E2 = :I""E9
-./.)& 1om)are residuals(
$a'# $b'# $c' 3roduce descriptive statistics of 2ales and 7E2I)# 7E2I*.
Descriptive Statistics: Sales, RESI1, RESI*
(aria)le N N* Mean S* Mean StDe+ Mini,-, .1 Meian .3 Ma"i,-,
Sales 20 0 60.50 1.66 '.$0 $8.00 5$.00 60.00 65.00 '5.00
/*S!1 20 0 $.2'$*#15 0.2'$ 1.22' #2.68$ #0.916 #0.0$$9 0.550 2.'3'
/*S!2 16 $ 0.05$' 0.209 0.835 #1.235 #0.3$$ 0.01'5 0.3'5 2.325
$d' :or both sets of errors produce boxplots and histograms with a normal plots.
Graphs / )o/plots / #ultiple Ys / Simple
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RESI2 RESI1
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Boxplot of RESI 1, RESI *
Graphs / 0istoram / 1ith (it and roups
Dat a
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4!263256E-15 1!227 20
0!05469 0!8353 16
Variable
RESI 1
RESI 3
N$r%al
"isto#ram of RESI 1, RESI *
.
;arry out the <=2 hypothesis test for normality(
Stat / )asic Statistics / *ormalit'Test / +olmoorov,Smirnov
RESI 1
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Mea
'0!150
4!263256E-15
St"e# 1!227
N 20
(S 0!120
)-Value
Pro$a$ilit! Plot of RESI 1
N$r%al
RESI *
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Mea
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St"e# 0!8353
N 16
+" 0!455
)-Value
Pro$a$ilit! Plot of RESI *
N$r%al
$e' 3roduce a time series plots of both sets of errors.
Graph / Time Series Plot 7E2I) 7E2I*
,
Which set look preferable> "he set from the moving average model is better.
-./.))4ssuming that the trend from the moving average model# 4@E7)# is increasing by &.1
per uarter# what would be your forecasts for the four uarters of *&&/> ;ompare with
those produced in "ask -./.1.
"ime "rend 2easonal :orecast
), /1.& B).0*
)0 /1.1 =).)+
*& /1./ B,.&-
*) /1.0 =,.,1 --.&. 551 !!!
** /+.* B).0* //.)* 661 !!!
*1 /+.- =).)+ /1.1/ 6'4 !!!
*+ /+., B,.&- .*.,- 2&3 !!!
Index
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20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
2!5
2!0
1!5
1!0
0!5
0!0
-0!5
-1!0
Variable
RESI1
RESI2
Time Series Plot of RESI1, RESI*
0