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by continent. Asian cities have on average much higher gests that the city’s center is a weak attractor of popu-
densities than European and Latin American cities, lation and jobs. In contrast, European and Asian cities
and U.S. cities are all clustered in the very low range. that have well-developed transit systems (London,
Generally, U.S. cities have much lower densities than Paris, Hong Kong, Singapore) have much higher densi-
their Latin, European or Asian counterparts. And, even ties overall and, in particular, a heavier concentration
when compared to other U.S. cities, Atlanta’s density is of business and retail in the city center.
still very low.
In addition to its overall low density, Atlanta’s spa-
tial structure is characterized by an extreme dispersion
Why is Density Important for Transit?
of jobs and people across its metropolitan area. For In order to understand why density is important in
instance, in 1990 only 2 percent of the total jobs were the operation of transit, it is useful to look at concrete
in the Central Business District, only 8 percent were examples. When comparing Barcelona and Atlanta,
within three miles of the city center, and 44 percent we see that both cities have about the same popula-
were not within walking distance of a bus stop or rail tion, have newly emerged as regional economic pow-
station. erhouses, and have recently hosted the Olympics. Yet,
Urban structure matters when designing a strat- the spatial structures of the two cities are completely
egy that rests on the development of transit as a major different. The average density of the Barcelona met-
mode of transportation. Atlanta’s density profile sug- ropolitan area is 28 times greater than Atlanta’s. This
Figure 1: Comparative Average Population Density in the Built-Up Parts of 46 Metropolitan Areas
Density in Atlanta
2 Reason Foundation • www.reason.org
linking multiple origins to multiple
Figure 2: The Built-Up Area of Atlanta and Barcelona Represented at the Same Scale destinations. Atlanta’s current
spatial structure differs greatly
Atlanta: from the “transit cities” of Europe
2.8 million people (1990) and Asia and makes it incompatible
4,280 km2 (built-up area)
with mass transit as a significant
provider of trips.
rial urban planning regulations?1 While neither of Built-Up Area (square miles) 1,652 600 (1,052) -64%
Scenario 2: No addition to built-up area, infill only and densification of exist-
these two assumptions seems likely, it is necessary to ing built-up area.
address the argument of future densification, as it is 1990 2010 Difference %
central to many “smart growth” strategies. change
Population 2,513,000 4,664,000 2,151,000 86%
Table 1 illustrates two densification scenarios.2
Annual Population Growth 3.14%
Under the assumptions of the first scenario—Atlanta Rate
reaches a density of 7,800 people per square mile over Built-Up Density (p/sqmi) 1,520 2,823
a period of 20 years; it is assumed that the histori- Built-Up Area (square miles) 1,652 1,652 - 0%
Density in Atlanta
4 Reason Foundation • www.reason.org
case of Atlanta, these studies illustrate that the geomet- tially reduce congestion (vehicle hours of travel) with-
ric possibility of reaching a density level high enough out increasing total driving (vehicle miles of travel).
to achieve a significant demand for transit, is not high Preliminary modeling suggests no adverse impacts
enough to warrant the costs. on air quality. The result would be the elimination of
the worst congestion by 2030, and achievement of the
Congestion Mitigation Task Force’s travel-time index
Reducing Congestion in Atlanta
goal of 1.35 (versus the ARC’s projected 1.67). We rec-
Our analysis concludes that the current fashion in ommend four major projects as follows:
transportation planning—of investing heavily in mass 1. A network of express toll lanes added to the entire
transit, carpooling, and land-use changes to reduce the freeway system instead of the currently planned
extent of driving—is not compatible with the goal of (but only partially funded) set of high-occupancy
reducing traffic congestion. Despite devoting the major- vehicle (HOV) lanes. These priced lanes would also
ity of its funding to transit and carpool lanes, Atlanta’s function as the guideway for regionwide express
2003 long-range plan was predicted by the ARC itself bus service.
to lead to no increase in the fraction of commute trips 2. A double-decked tunnel linking the southern ter-
made by carpool, and a less than two percentage point minus of Georgia 400 with I-20 and later with the
increase in transit’s low market share—while overall northern terminus of I-675, providing major relief
congestion would go from today’s travel time index of to the Downtown Connector (I-75/85), the most
1.46 to a projected 1.67 by 2030. Atlanta’s transporta- congested portion of the freeway system.
tion agencies are working on more effective approaches 3. Extension of the Lakewood Freeway eastward to I-
as they produce the new long-range plan. We hope our 20 as a tunnel, and westward to I-20 as a freeway,
analysis will help in their efforts. providing an additional east-west corridor and new
The new approach we recommend deals with both access to the airport.
major sources of congestion. For the half that is caused 4. A separate toll truckway system, improving safety
by incidents (accidents, work zones, weather, etc.), and permitting heavy trucks to bypass Atlanta’s
Atlanta should continue worthwhile efforts under way congestion in exchange for paying a toll; a portion
such as quicker identification of, response to and clear- of this system would be tunneled below downtown.
ance of incidents, as well as improvements in traveler
By using value-priced tolling on nearly all of this
information systems and work-zone management.
new capacity, we estimate that about three-quarters of
But for the other half of congestion—the kind that
the estimated $25 billion cost could be financed based
occurs every day during rush hours because demand
on the projected toll revenues. These recommendations
greatly exceeds roadway capacity—there is no alterna-
are described in detail in the November 2006 report,
tive to increasing the capacity of the roadway system.
“Reducing Congestion in Atlanta: A Bold New Approach
To be sure, better management of the existing system
to Increasing Mobility” (reason.org/ps351.pdf).
can help—such as ramp meters on freeway on-ramps
There would be large benefits from implementing
and traffic signal coordination on arterials. But the
this approach. Valuing the time saved at a conserva-
sheer growth in numbers of people and cars means
tive $12 per hour, the time saving over 20 years would
more highway capacity must play a major role. This
be more than $98 billion. But there would also be
does not mean paving over the landscape with ever
major economic benefits. Studies have shown that by
more freeways, nor does it mean ignoring air qual-
allowing employers to recruit from a wider radius (and
ity mandates. Our modeling (using the ARC’s traffic
employees to seek jobs within a wider radius), better
model) shows that a careful program of value-priced
matches of skills with needs would occur, making
capacity additions over the next 25 years can substan-
Atlanta’s economy more productive.
Media
Endnotes
Chris Mitchell
1. For a review of the literature on required density
Director of Communications
for effective transit operation, see Alain Bertaud, “Clear-
(310) 367-6109
ing the Air in Atlanta: Transit and Smart Growth or
Chris.Mitchell@Reason.org
Conventional Economics?” http://alain-bertaud.com/
images/AB_Clearing_The_Air_in%20Atlanta_1.pdf.
Reason’s transportation research and commentary
2. The projection is done using the 1990 census
is available online at www.reason.org/transportation.
base as at the time the original paper was written the
2000 census was not available. The results, however, For the latest analysis of transportation news and
trends, you can join Reason’s transportation email
are robust enough to show that the same conclusion
newsletter by emailing Robert.Poole@Reason.org.
would be obtained if the base year had been 2000 and
the target year 2020.
Density in Atlanta
6 Reason Foundation • www.reason.org