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Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431

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Fisheries Research
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A qualitative and quantitative analysis of selection of shing area by
Basque trawlers
R. Prellezo
a,
, I. Lazkano
b
, M. Santurtn
a
, A. Iriondo
a
a
AZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Txatxarramendi Ugartea z/g, 48395 Sukarrieta, Spain
b
University of Calgary, Department of Economics, Calgary, Canada
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 16 October 2007
Received in revised form 18 December 2008
Accepted 22 December 2008
Keywords:
Random utility model
Multinomial (unordered) logit
Trawl eet
a b s t r a c t
Selection of shing area by Basque trawlers is analysed. A qualitative description and a random utility
model are employed to establish the most important determinants of area choice. Five types of variables
are studied: vessel, trip, management, economic and behaviour characteristics. Empirical results suggest
that all types of variables are determinants in the shing area decision of Basque trawlers. In particular,
we nd that vessel length, shing rights, fuel costs and risk are the variables that most inuence shing
area choice.
2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Ashery is a group of vessel voyages targeting the same (assem-
blage of) species and/or stocks, using similar gear, during the same
period of the year and within the same area (study group on the
development of shery-based forecasts, ICES, 2003). The location
does take part of the denition of a shery.
Fishing area selection is important for both the shermen and
the sheries manager. From the shermens point of view, output
quantity, quality and operating costs depend on shing location
and, therefore, their prots are dependent on shing location.
From the sheries managers point of view, spatial characteris-
tics affect the cost and benets of resource management. All the
economic agents in the shery sector are therefore affected by
the selection of shing area. See Sanchirico and Wilen (1999)
and Wilen (2000) for original work in spatial economics in
sheries.
These three perspectives, as well as the interactions between
them, generate the need to understand the factors inuencing the
allocation of shing effort among different shing areas available
to the eets.
In the traditional literature, the investigation has been focused
on the idea that shers will redistribute shing effort across sh-
eries when the expected economic returns differ across them
(Gordon, 1954). Followingthis idea, vessels (someof them) will seek
to increase their prots by moving to the more protable grounds,
until prot rates are equal across them. This idea is intuitively

Corresponding author. Tel.: +34 946029400 fax: +34 946870006.


E-mail address: rprellezo@azti.es (R. Prellezo).
appealing and is often incorporated in economic models of sh-
eries. However, it relies on inaccurate assumptions when todays
eets are considered. Regulations have heavily changed the alloca-
tion of effort in the last decades and, therefore, the study of effort
allocation must take todays economic and regulatory schemes into
account.
The Basque offshore trawl eet has been used as a case study.
The eet has three different (main) choices: ICES Sub-area VIII
1
,
it includes the Bay of Biscay, except its southern part (Division
VIIIc), ICES Sub-area VII, it includes west of Ireland (Division VIIb),
Porcupine bank (Division VIIc), eastern English Channel (Division
VIId), Bristol Channel (Division VIIf), Celtic Sea (Division VIIgh)
and south-west of Ireland (Division VIIjk), and, ICES Sub-area VI,
whichincludes West of Scotland(DivisionVIa) andRockall (Division
VIb) (see Fig. 1).
The summary statistics in Table 1, in particular the number of
trips and the average RPUE (revenue per shing day
2
) and its stan-
dard deviation, present big differences between Sub-areas for the
period analysed (19992002).
The average RPUE differs from one Sub-area to the other.
In fact, the highest value is obtained in Sub-area VII, almost
doubling the average value obtained in the remaining two.
Furthermore, the standard deviation is just slightly higher in
Sub-area VI.
Gordons argument is not necessarily failing; it is just that
the assumption behind it which is not fullled. There are two
main assumptions that are not satised. First, it is assumed that
1
Concretely Divisions VIIIa,b,d.
2
It is assumed that unit effort cost is the same for all the trips.
0165-7836/$ see front matter 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.shres.2008.12.015
R. Prellezo et al. / Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431 25
Fig. 1. Map of the ICES statistical shing areas of the Northeast Atlantic. Shadowd areas are (from south to north), Divisions VIII a, b, d, Sub-area VII, and Sub-area VI.
shermen are homogeneous and, second, it is assumed that
shermen have perfect information and they are, therefore, aware
of the opportunities to increase prots by changing the shing
area.
There are indeed some other variables, besides RPUE, inuenc-
ing the shing area choice. The ability to track the distribution
and abundance of sh stocks is crucial. The economic conditions
of the eet and biological conditions are also likely to inuence
area selection.
The purpose of this study is therefore to study which variables
determineshingareaselectionof theBasquetrawl eet. Inorder to
determine these main variables, two methodologies are employed.
First, a qualitative survey was carried out. In this survey, each ves-
sel was interviewed to nd the main reasons for selecting a shing
26 R. Prellezo et al. / Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431
Table 1
RPUE (average and deviation) by shing trip.
Area Number of trips Average RPUE (D ) Standard deviation RPUE (D )
VI 771 2007 2308
VII 1412 3639 1974
VIII a, b, d 8319 2046 1821
Total 10502 2257 1959
ground in a trip-by-trip basis. Second, a quantitative analysis was
carried out to statistically determine what variables affect area
selection.
The answers obtained in the survey explain that there are tech-
nical reasons for which a shing area cannot be accessible to
certain type of vessels. There are management constraints in terms
of total allowable effort (TAE) by area, or restrictions by area for
the quantity of species that can be extracted (TAC, total allowable
catch).
Those results are employed as an input in the quantitative
analysis. A random utility model (RUM) approach is used. This
type of mathematical model helps determining the deterministic
attributes that affect the utility function of each area in a trip-by-
trip basis.
Approaches of thesemodels appliedtosimilar investigations can
be found in, among others, Pradhamand Leung (2004), Holland and
Sutinen (1999, 2000), Mistianen and Strand (2000). This paper has
two maindifferences withother studies inthe literature. First, upto
the knowledge of the authors, the case study of the Basque trawlers
(and Spanish trawlers) has not been analysed yet. Second the regu-
lation that these vessels have, combined shing rights by Sub-area
and TAC by Sub-area, makes this investigation a good example of
how two kinds of regulations can interact.
Furthermore, the quantitative analysis extends the variables
studied in the qualitative analysis. Some examples are variable
costs, the existing difference between the obtained turnover and
the expected one, and the risk (turnover variance) that each area
has.
In order to full all these objectives the paper is organised as
follows. Section2gives anoverall descriptionof theeet beinganal-
ysed. In Section 3, the methodology and results obtained from the
qualitative analysis are explained. Section 4 deals with the RUM
approach that has been implemented, explaining why it has been
used and the advantages and disadvantages that it may have. Sec-
tion 5 explains the variables used in the analysis and Section 6
presents the results. The paper concludes with a discussion and
a simulation of possible scenarios.
2. The Basque trawl shery
Spain, and particularly the Basque country (north-east of Spain),
has an important eet operating in ICES Sub-areas VI and VII and
Divisions VIII a, b, d.
Fishing characteristics of this eet change according to the gear
used. Baka trawlers can be dened as a single vessel which trawls
abottomnet operatingincontact withtheseabed. Trips last 6days
onaverage andthe haul durationis between4and5h. These vessels
face a multi-species sheries, targeting, mainly, Hake, Anglersh
and Megrim and the average storage capacity is 50tonnes.
Bottom pair trawlers are composed by two vessels trawling a
single very high vertical opening (VHVO) net. The height of this
net is between 25 and 35m and width is between 75 and 90m.
Depending on the shing area, each trip lasts an average of 5 or 6
days. The duration of each haul is on average 78h. The main target
species is Hake which accounts for almost 90% of the catches made
by these types of vessels. The storage capacity of vessel is similar to
the Baka trawlers.
Catches are landed on Basque ports (Ondarroa and Pasaia) and
on French, Scottish and Irish ports, which present similar landing
facilities, from where the catch is transported by trucks to be sold
in local Basque markets. Fish is stored using ice and landed fresh.
The Basque trawl eet is mainly managed through TAC and TAE.
These two regulations (TAC and TAE) are enforced by different gov-
ernmental enforcement agencies The TAC was rst implemented
when Spain joined the EU in 1986. Setting TACs involves the xing
of maximum quantities of sh that can be caught from a specic
stock over a given period of time.
The TAE is previous to the TAC regulation. In 1981 access rights
were imposed to all Spanish vessels operating in Divisions VIII a, b,
d and Sub-areas VI and VII, and can be interpreted as a maximum
number of shing days by shing area and by vessel which can be
transferred among them within certain limits (see Laxe, 2006, for
further information on the management of this eet).
Finally, concerning technical measures, some mess size limi-
tations and minimum landing sizes for some stocks have been
implemented.
3. Results of the qualitative analysis
In2003a qualitative surveywas conductedtoexplore the shing
area decisions of Basque trawlers. A total of 34 trips of different
vessels were sampled(17for eachgear type) andonboardobservers
carried the survey using personal interviews. Aqualitative survey is
appropriate to obtaina general understanding of the mainvariables
that determine area selection.
The qualitative survey states that the most important variable
is shermens experience. Experience accounts for the 25% of the
total responses. Furthermore, experience accounts for 45% when
harvesting in Divisions VIII a, b, d.
Regulation (the type of regulation is not specied) is the second
most important variable accounting for 20% of the total answers.
When Sub-area VII is chosen however, regulation accounts for 80%
of area selection.
The survey shows that area selection is also inuenced by
expected harvest (7%), communication with other skippers (6%),
and fuel consumption (2%). Finally, 40% of the total responses
depend on the non dened factors.
The survey sheds some light on the area choice made by the
Basque trawlers. There are two major issues withthe survey results.
First, 40% of the responses are undened and second, a relatively
small number of trips are sampled. In the following section, a quan-
titative RUMapproachis carriedout to validate the factors obtained
from the qualitative analysis.
4. RUM quantitative analysis
Following McFadden, 1973, a random utility approach is used
to model trip choice behaviour. Fleets face area-species multiple
choices J (j =1,. . . ,J) and in each area we assume that measurable
utility is obtained. Utility, in economics, is a measure of the rela-
tive happiness or satisfaction gained from a good, a service or an
activity that is determined by observable and unobservable char-
acteristics. An equation describing the utility function is presented
in (1) (Greene, 2000).
U
j
= V
j
+ . (1)
where V
j
is a deterministic utility function and
j
is an unobserved
random variable.
Each vessel maximizes its utility among J alternatives. Under
this framework, each vessel has a higher likelihood of choosing
alternative j over all alternatives if and only if
P
j
= Prob {V
j
+
j
> V
k
+e
k
; k J\{j}}.
R. Prellezo et al. / Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431 27
Table 2
Summary statistics for the Basque trawl vessel in the period 19962002.
Variables Unit VI (n=771) VII (n=1412) VIII a, b, d (n=8319) Total (n=10502)
Vessel characteristics
Vessel length Meters 33.5 (2.02) 32.83 (2.17) 30.8 (3.50) 31.2 (3.39)
Vessel harbour Name ON (100%) ON (77%) ON (76%) ON (78%)
Vessel gear Name BK (100%) BK (73%) PR (58%) BK (50%)
Trip characteristics
Duration of the trip: total Days 9.01 (2.49) 9.10 (2.46) 6.23 (1.99) 6.82 (2.40)
Duration of the trip to the shing ground Days 2.16 (1.79) 2.72 (1.39) 1.13 (0.39) 1.42 (0.97)
Actual shing days Days 6.85 (2.32) 6.38 (1.85) 5.10 (1.89) 5.40 (2.01)
Season
Winter % 25 13 29 27
Spring % 28 42 21 24
Summer % 21 32 21 23
Fall % 26 13 29 27
Departure harbour Name LC (80%) ON, CA (40%) ON (71%) ON (63%)
Landing harbour Name LC (84%) ON, CA (40%) ON (72%) ON (63%)
Farness of the shing area Miles 518 (430) 653 (332) 271 (193) 341 (234)
Distance to the shing area Miles 270 (296) 329 (214) 136 (53) 172 (141)
Distance to the landing harbour Miles 248 (283) 324 (211) 135 (52) 169 (137)
Management characteristics
Fishing rights: VI Days (Year) 63 (31) 38 (15) 36 (20) 38 (21)
Fishing rights: VII Days (Year) 98 (75) 96 (49) 94 (56) 94 (57)
Fishing rights: VIII a, b, d Days (Year) 252 (73) 228 (65) 253 (86) 250 (84)
TAC Hake Tonnes (Year) 12069 (4258) 12681 (3719) 18017 (5428) 16863 (5623)
TAC Anglersh Tonnes (Year) 7290 (1436) 24086 (2631) 6906 (844) 9244 (5990)
TAC Megrim Tonnes (Year) 4605 (266) 19146 (3331) 2285 (369) 4722 (5856)
Economic characteristics
Turnover D per trip 17292 (17955) 31249 (15541) 12502 (10226) 15374 (13402)
Turnover/effort D per trip 2007 (2308) 3640 (1975) 2046 (1822) 2258 (1960)
Expected turnover (lagged by trip) D per trip 2014 (2309) 3668 (1980) 2041 (1817) 2258 (1960)
Fuel cost D per trip 1118 (310) 1063 (307) 674 (228) 759 (297)
Behaviour characteristics
Risk Ratio 0.81 (0.58) 0.49 (0.08) 0.78 (0.14) 0.75 (0.23)
Risk (season) Ratio 0.53 (0.43) 0.45 (0.13) 0.77 (0.23) 0.71 (0.27)
Inertia
a
Dummy 99% 84% 97% 96%
Average values or mode for non numerical. Values in parentheses are standard deviations.
a
Percentage of 1 in dummy variable.
That is, a vessel chooses area j if and only if the utility obtained
fromchoosing area j is higher than the utility obtained by choosing
any other shing area.
Since
j
and
k
are random variables,
j

k
is also a random
variable. Theadequacyof RUMimplythat thepart that is observedis
more inuent than the part that is not observed (the randompart),
i.e., Prob(V
j
V
k
) >Prob(
k

j
). Hence, let Y
i
be a random variable
which stands for the choice made by individual i if and only if the
J disturbances are independent and identically distributed with an
extreme value distribution (or Weibull distribution),
3
Prob(Y
i
= j) =
e

x
ij
+

i
w
i

J
j=1
e

x
ij
+

i
w
i
(2)
Where x
ij
are those individual-specic attributes (characteristics
that depend on the individual) and w
ij
are those choice-
specic attributes (characteristics that depend on the choice). See
McFadden, 1973for amoredetaileddescriptionof themethodology.
5. Variables
The deterministic part of the utility function is explained by the
variables obtained from the qualitative analysis and some other
relevant variables presented in Table 2.
The dataset contains trip level information for the period
19962002. Data have been obtained fromlogbooks and sale forms
3
See for example Kobayashi (1993) for an explanation of this distribution.
of trawl vessels based on ports in the region of the Basque country
(Spain).
The description of the variables is provided as follows. The
variables are classied in ve different groups: vessel, trip, man-
agement, economic and behaviour characteristics.
5.1. Characteristics of the vessel
- Fishing length: The average vessel length is 31m, a maximum of
39m and a minimum of 23m.
- Vessel base harbour: Similar patterns from vessels of the same
harbour are checked (base, departure or landing harbour).
- Fishing gear: If the gear chosen has any signicant effect on the
selected area.
5.2. Characteristics of the trip
- Distance to the shing area: The distance in miles fromthe depar-
ture harbour to the shing ground (distance to the shing area)
and the distance from this last shing ground to the landing har-
bour (distance to the landing harbour).
- Duration of the shing trips: The number of days each trip lasts.
- Season: Season of the year in which the trip was made
5.3. Management characteristics
- Fishing rights: Fishing rights, in terms of allowable shing days in
each shing area, at the beginning of each year.
28 R. Prellezo et al. / Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431
Table 3
Parameter estimates from the multinomial logit (unordered) model on shing area choices.
Variables log(PVII /P
VIII a, b, d
) S.E.VII ZVII Log(PVI /P
VII I, ab, d
) S.E.VI ZVI
Intercept 4.70
***
0.88 5.30 21.08
***
1.27 16.52
Vessel characteristics
Vessel length 0.31
***
0.022 13.97 0.48
***
0.03 15.43
Trip characteristics
Duration 0.15
***
0.069 2.19 3.21
***
0.25 12.48
Managerial characteristics
Fishing rights VI 0.0031 0.03 0.87 0.09
***
0.005 17.68
Fishing rights VII 0.0017 0.0012 1.36 0.013
***
0.001 7.86
Fishing rights VIII a, b, d 0.005
***
0.0008 6.18 0.0009 0.001 0.845
TAC Hake 0.0003
***
0.00001 23.87 0.0002
***
0.00001 15.55
Economical characteristics
Fuel cost 0.0035
***
0.25 6.063 0.03
***
0.094 14.81
Production function 0.00044 0.00002 17.746 0.00000 0.000038 0.178
Behavioural characteristics
Risk 10.39
***
0.37 27.7 4.293
***
0.29 14.55
Inertia 1.25
**
0.18 6.91 1.64
***
0.47 3.45
N=10502 Pseudo-
2
=0.679 Prob[ChiSqd>value] =.0000000 Log-likelihood=2176.
Statistical signicance at 10% level.
**
Statistical signicance at 5% level.
***
Statistical signicance at 1% level.
- Fishing rights utilisation: Remaining shing rights in terms of
shing days by area and by vessel.
- TAC: The TAC established for the main three species captured
by these eets (Hake, Anglersh and Megrim) by area
4
(ACFM,
2003).
- TAC utilisation: Remaining quota for the overall eet by trip.
5.4. Economic characteristics
- Fuel cost: Fuel expenditure per trip in Euros. This is calculated
from the ratio between the total expenditure in fuel each year
and the total shing days, and then multiplied by the average trip
duration of each eet.
- Turnover: Landings value (in Euros) obtained in each trip
5
.
- Turnover by effort: Landings value (in Euros) divided by shing
days.
- Production function: Used as a proxy of the expected turnover,
by vessel and by area. In order to consider different expectations,
two different alternatives have been tested: Lagging the turnover
to the previous trip or to the previous year.
5.5. Behaviour characteristics
- Inertia: A dummy variable describing whether the current trip is
inthe same area as the previous one. Whenthat is the case, inertia
is equal to 1 and 0 otherwise. This variable captures the tendency
of vessels to returnto areas where experience gives a comparative
advantage.
- Risk: It stands for the variability of the turnover of each choice,
measured in terms of standard deviation relative to the average
turnover. Several alternatives have beentested(by year, by season
and by season weighted by the distance).
4
For the case of the TAC of Hake, Sub-areas VI and VII have a common TAC (which
alsoincludes DivisionVb, andSub-areas XII andXIV) or the case of the TACof Megrim
the Sub-area VI also includes Division Vb and Sub-areas XII and XIV.
5
It is important toremarkthat the price of the same species varies withthe shing
area where they have been caught. When possible (for some years this data cannot
be obtained) this is the approach taken into account.
6. Empirical procedure
The variables described in the previous section are by con-
structionindividual specic. All tripandbehavioural characteristics
of the eet are individual (trip) specic and hence, the model
to use is a multinomial (unordered) logit
6
. Eq. (2) can then be
rewritten as:
Prob(Y
i
= j) =
e

x
ij
1 +

J1
j=1
e

x
ij
(3)
The deterministic component of the indirect utility function (3)
in the multinomial (unordered) logit model has empirically been
specied as:
V
j
= + Vessel characteristics + Trip characteristics
+ Managerial characteristics
+ Economical characteristics
+ Behavioural characteristics (4)
Where , , , , are vectors of the coefcients of each category.
The utility function (4) is estimated iteratively using a multinomial
logit model and the results converge to the maximum likelihood.
Independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA)
7
is assumed. In order
to avoid endogeneity issues in the estimation, highly correlated
variables have been dropped out.
The individual statistical signicance of each variable has been
tested. The results are presented in Table 3:
V
j
= + Vessel length + Duration +
1
F Rights VI
+
2
F Rights VII +
3
F Rights VIII +
4
TAC Hake
+
1
Fuel Cost +
2
Production function
+
1
Risk +
2
Inertia (5)
6
Furthermore for J alternatives in a multinomial logit model, only J-1 distinct
parameter vectors may be identied and the probability of the reference category
has to be computed taking into account that the summation of the probabilities
should be equal to one.
7
The statistical package used has been Limdep.
R. Prellezo et al. / Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431 29
The estimated model is presented in Table 3. The pseudo-
2
indicates that 68% of the variation of the area selection behaviour
has been explained. The log-likelihood ratio and chi-square value
are also signicant. Finally, residuals are tested to conrm that a
Weibull distribution is followed.
One of the categorical variables, Division VIII a, b, d, is dropped
in order to obtain full rank. All the results are presented relative to
this alternative.
In Table 3 individual signicances are presented. Most of the
variables are statistically signicant. Looking at the vessel charac-
teristics, we can observe that the odds of choosing Sub-areas VI
and VII relative to choosing Division VIII a, b, d increase with vessel
length. This implies that larger vessels have higher probability of
harvesting in Sub-areas VI and VII.
Trip characteristics are important to determine area choice. As
the expected duration of the trip increases, the likelihood of choos-
ingSub-area VII relative tochoosingthe Bayof Biscaydecreases. The
probability of choosing Sub-area VI however decreases. The reason
is that most of the vessels shing inSub-area VI landinshing ports
close to the shing area, in Irish and British ports.
The variables that describe management are also statistically
signicant. This is expected as regulatory measures vary (in quan-
tity not in quality) with the shing area. The effect of regulation in
each of the shing areas varies considerably. The number of days
allowed to sh in the Bay of Biscay affects negatively the likeli-
hoodof choosing Sub-area VII relative to the Bay of Biscay. Likewise,
the higher number of shing rights in Sub-area VI, the probabil-
ity of selecting this area relative to shing in the Bay of Biscay is
higher.
Output regulation, measured by the mean of TACs by area for
the three main species (Hake, Anglersh and Megrim), is statisti-
cally signicant. An increase in Hake quota will also increase the
probability of shing in Divisions VIII a, b, d. An increase in Hake
TAC is understood by shermen as a lower constraint as well as
increase (or non decrease) in the relative abundance of Hake, mak-
ing vessels go to closer shing areas. It is important to remark that
theother twoTACs (AnglershandMegrim) donot affect areaselec-
tion. There are two main reasons for this result. First, the other two
TACs have not been as restrictive as the one applied to Hake (the
evolution of these two TACs have been stable), and, second, hake is
the target species of 90% of the trips for pair trawlers and for 50%
of the total trips (including Baka trawlers).
Economic characteristics affect shing area choice. Fuel cost
affects the probability of choosing Sub-areas VI and VII relative
to Division VIII a, b, d. Furthermore, expected turnover affects the
probability of choosing Sub-area VII relative to the Bay of Biscay.
Behavioural characteristics are also signicant. In Table 2 we
observe that the lowest risk (or uncertainty) is foundinSub-area VII
and the highest risk depends on the season. Risk reduces the proba-
bility of choosing Sub-areas VI and VII. Finally, inertia increases the
likelihood of shing in Sub-areas VII or VI when the previous trip
Table 4
Area choices explained using model estimates.
Predicted
VI VII VIII a, b, d
Actual VI 537 (70%) 153 81
VII 89 1088 (77%) 235
VIII a, b, d 44 134 8141 (98%)
Table 5
Marginal average effects.
Variables dPVI /dxK dPVII /dxK dP
VIII a, b, d
/dxK
Vessel length 0.0085 0.0066 0.015
Duration 0.0918 0.0575 0.0343
Fishing rights VI 0.0027 0.0014 0.0013
Fishing rights VII 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001
Fishing rights VIII a, b, d 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001
Fuel cost 0.0008 0.0003 0.0005
TAC Hake 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Production 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Risk 0.0445 0.3959 0.3519
Inertia 0.0656 0.0821 0.0165
was located in those areas.
The predictive power of the model is presented in Table 4. Real
observations are compared to model predictions. The diagonal of
Table 4 indicates that 70% of the trips made in Sub-area VI, 77% of
the trips in Sub-area VII, and 98% of the trips in the Bay of Biscay
are well predicted.
7. Comparative static
The estimated parameters presented in Table 3 are interpreted
once the marginal effects (dP
j
/dx
K
) are computed (Powers and Xie,
2000).
The marginal average effects presented inTable 5 (area averaged
over individuals) give an interesting point for the decision making
process. Any eet modernization policy that increases the average
length of this eet will increase the probability of shing in Sub-
areas VI and VII. If the expected duration of the trip increases, the
probability of shing in Sub-area VI reduces.
All these probabilities are constrained by the current manage-
ment scenario. Anincrease inthe shingrights of one area increases
the probability of shing in that particular location. There are two
main implications of this result. First, if any shing right is bought
from any area, the actual shing area distribution will be moved
towards this area. Second a raise in fuel costs increases the number
of trips in Sub-area VI.
Finally, behavioural aspects are also important. Higher risk (in
terms of variability of the shing trips turnover), increases the
probability of shing in relatively safe trips increasing so the prob-
ability of shing in the Bay of Biscay.
Fig. 2. Probability of choosing Sub-area VI, VII or Divisions VIII a, b, d with vessel overall length.
30 R. Prellezo et al. / Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431
Fig. 3. Probability of choosing Sub-area VI, VII or Divisions VIII a, b, d with fuel cost.
Fig. 4. Probability of choosing Sub-area VI, VII or Divisions VIII a, b, d with Production function.
Fig. 5. Probability of choosing Sub-area VI, VII or Divisions VIII a, b, d with Risk Perception.
The probability of shing area selection has been simulated
under different scenarios of changes in the overall vessels lengths,
fuel cost, expected turnover and perception of risk. Results are pre-
sented in Figs. 25.
The current average vessel size is 31m. If a modernization pol-
icy is established, increasing the vessel size 510%, by the sheries
manager or vessels owners (shing rms), changes in the probabil-
ity of choosing the shing area will be small (Fig. 2). A policy that
increases the length (beyond 3m in average terms) will however
signicantly change the shing area selection, increasing the prob-
ability of choosing Sub-areas VI and VII, and decreasing the number
of trips made in the Bay of Biscay. The same argument applies to
a decommission scheme that drops the smallest vessels out of the
shery.
The short terminelasticity of fuel price (Lazkano, 2008), implies
that increment of it, does not affect, in the short term, the quantity
demanded
8
. This result can be seen in Fig. 3. An increase of 25%
in the price of fuel does not change the probability. Higher than
25% increase changes some of the trips from the Bay of Biscay to
Sub-area VII, looking for a greater RPUE
9
.
8
Note that this result can be biased due to the price receives a subsidy.
9
In the short term the stock size is invariant, while in the long run it can clearly
inuence the results obtained.
When the expected turnover increases, both sides of the Y axis
of Fig. 4 are especially relevant. Turnover could increase or decrease
due to technological, natural or shing strategic changes
10
. In any
case, the probability of selecting the Bay of Biscay as the shing
ground will decrease, increasing the probability of selecting Sub-
area VII, while the probability of selecting Sub-area VI does not
change.
Finally, in Fig. 5 changes in risk perception have been simulated.
As the risk increases the probability of selecting the relative safety
of the Bay of Biscay rises and, therefore, the probability of choosing
Sub-area VI goes down.
8. Discussion and concluding remarks
In this paper shermen behaviour in relation to shing area
selection in the north-east Atlantic trawl shery during 199602
has been analysed. The Basque trawlers eet has been used as a
case study.
10
The reader could think that the expected turnover can change due to many
other reasons, but in this case, we only include those that have not been taken into
consideration when dening the utility function of each shing area alternative.
R. Prellezo et al. / Fisheries Research 97 (2009) 2431 31
First, a qualitative approach based on on-boards interviews
made to skippers is presented to obtain a general understanding of
the main variables that determine area selection. The results show
that shing location is mainly inuenced by experience, regula-
tions, expected harvest, external communications and fuel costs in
addition to a set of undetermined reasons.
The results of the qualitative analysis are usedas input ina quan-
titative analysis. A quantitative analysis can help determine the
exact effect of different variables in the selection of shing area.
A random utility model, a multinomial unordered logit model is
employed.
The variables have beendividedindifferent categories. The most
important result is that all categories are statistically signicant. It
gives a rst scope of the complexity involved in the shing area
choice. The most important variables are vessels characteristics
(vessel length), managerial constraints (shing rights), behaviour
of shermen (i.e., inertia), variable costs (fuel cost) and the risk in
each area (in terms of standard deviation of the average turnover
of each area).
The quantitative analysis provides the exact effect of the vari-
ables on the probability of selecting different shing areas as well
as the effect of simulations. In that sense, vessel length changes,
fuel cost, expected turnover and different uncertainty (risk) sce-
narios have been implemented. These scenarios are important to
determine the effect of changes in the economic conditions on the
distribution of shing area. The most important economic condi-
tions of the Basque trawl eet in the last decade are the oil crisis of
2000 and 2004, as well as the one in the rst part of 2008, a change
in the current limits of the shing rights transferability, and eet
renovation policies. The effect of those changes in the selection of
shing area has been studied through simulations in Section 7.
EU sheries management is mowing towards a shery-based
concept rather than a single stock basis. Fisheries are however, as
shown in this paper, dynamic in the sense that they are affected
by eet behaviour and, in particular, by the shing area choice.
Future management plans applied to a shery may change the sh-
ery itself and the restrictions in one area may affect other areas
through the re-allocation of shing effort. Furthermore, changing
the shing rights transferability conditions, for example by creat-
ing an individual transferable quota system can cause unexpected
shing effort re-allocations. Some areas can also be affected by
the economic framework changing so shing area locations when
fuel costs change. The analysis of shing location has proven to be
important both for shermen and for sheries managers. The prof-
its of shermen are determined by shing location and the success
of management policies depend on the effect of those policies on
shing area selection.
Acknowledgements
This work has been funded through the TECTAC project by the
European Union (DG Fisheries, study no. QLRT-2001-01291), the
CAFE project of the European Union (DG-Fish, contract no. 022644)
and by the Basque Country Government (Agriculture and Fisheries
Department). We would also like to acknowledge the work done by
Estanis Mugerza, Luis Arregi andJonRuiz inthe qualitative analysis.
All errors are our own responsibility.
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