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NEWS RELEASE
Manitoba Party Standings, June 2014

JUNE 2014 PARTY STANDINGS IN MANITOBA
Tories Lead Overall, NDP Support Ticks Up As Liberals Fall

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Winnipeg As the Manitoba Legislature rises for the summer, the opposition Progressive
Conservatives remain the most popular party among Manitoba voters. Meanwhile,
Manitobas governing New Democrats remain well back, but have begun to win back
some of the support they had recently lost to Manitobas third-place Liberal Party.
A new Probe Research survey conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press finds
that forty-five percent of decided voters would cast a ballot for a Progressive
Conservative candidate in a hypothetical provincial election. Support for the PCs is
virtually unchanged (-1%) since our last sounding taken in March 2014. The governing
New Democrats, meanwhile, now hold the loyalty of slightly more than three-in-ten
decided Manitoba voters (32%, up from 28% in March).
Support for the provincial Liberal party, meanwhile, has declined since the spring, when
the party posted its best-ever results in a Probe Research Inc. quarterly survey. Today, 16
percent of decided voters would back the Liberal Party (down from 23 percent in
March). Support for the provincial Greens and other parties not represented in the
Legislature, meanwhile, now sits at seven percent (+4% versus March).
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Overall, 13 percent of Manitoba adults remain undecided or refused to say which party
they would vote for if a provincial election were held today.



Provincial Party Support
Base: Decided Voters
48%
26%
28%
32%
38%
48%
46%
45%
12%
20%
23%
16%
2%
6%
3%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2007 Election Dec. 2013 (n=1,012) Mar. 2014 (n=1,010) Jun. 2014 (n=1,004)
NDP PC Liberal Green/Other
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party's candidate would you be most likely to support?
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Progressive Conservatives Top 40% In Winnipeg
Although the gap between the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP has narrowed
slightly province-wide, the PCs are maintaining their lead over the NDP in seat-rich
Winnipeg. Indeed, it would appear that both the NDP and PCs are picking up support
at the expense of the Liberals in the provincial capital.
Currently, four-in-ten decided Winnipeg voters would cast a ballot for a PC candidate
(41%, up from 38% in March 2014) and slightly more than one-third would vote for the
NDP (36%, +2% versus March). Only 17 percent of decided Winnipeg voters would cast
ballots for a Liberal candidate (-8% since March). Six percent of those surveyed,
meanwhile, prefer the Greens or another party (+3% versus March).
Outside Winnipeg, one-half of decided voters prefer the PCs (52%, versus 61% in March).
One-quarter of those surveyed would now cast a hypothetical ballot for a NDP
candidate (25%, up from 17% in March), with 15 percent preferring the Liberals (-4%)
and nine percent opting for another party (+6%).





Provincial Party Support
-By Region -
Base: Decided Voters
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
PCs NDP Liberals Other
35%
52%
10%
3%
38%
34%
25%
3%
41%
36%
17%
6%
2011 Election Mar. 2014 (n=605) Jun. 2014 (n=603)
- WINNIPEG -
- NON-WINNIPEG -
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
PCs NDP Liberals Other
55%
39%
4%
1%
61%
17%
19%
3%
52%
25%
15%
9%
2011 Election Mar. 2014 (n=405) June. 2014 (n=401)
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party's candidate would you be most likely to support?
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Looking at Winnipegs sub-regions, the Progressive Conservatives lead the NDP by a
significant margin in the southeast (56%, versus 31% respectively), northeast (50%, versus
27%) and northwest (46%, versus 31%) areas of the city. The NDP continue to lead the
PCs in their Core area stronghold (53%, versus 22%). The two parties are now tied in
southwest Winnipeg, with the Liberals not far behind in this quadrant of the city (35%
each for the PCs and NDP, compared to 28% for the Liberals).


PROVINCIAL PARTY STANDINGS IN WINNIPEG
-- June 2014 --
Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate
would you be most likely to support?
Winnipeg Northwest
Winnipeg
Northeast
Winnipeg
Southeast
Winnipeg
Southwest
Winnipeg
Core
Area
(Base)
(n=603)
(%)
(n=118)
(%)
(n=123)
(%)
(n=103)
(%)
(n=146)
(%)
(n=114)
(%)
PC 41 46 50 56 35 22
NDP 36 31 27 31 35 53
Liberal 17 14 18 11 28 13
Green/Other 6 9 5 3 2 12







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Men, Older Voters, Higher-Income Earners Propel PCs
Four distinct demographic sub-categories are opting for the PCs in significant numbers.
These are:
Men: More than one-half of male voters would cast a ballot for a PC candidate
(51%, versus 27% who prefer the NDP). Older male voters were significantly more
likely to prefer the PCs than their younger counterparts (56% among men aged
55 years and over and 53% among men aged 35-54 years versus 41% among
men aged 18-34 years). Among women, meanwhile, the PCs and NDP are
statistically tied (38% versus 36% respectively)
Older voters: More than one-half of those aged 55 years and over prefer the PCs
(51%, versus 28% NDP), with the gap shrinking slightly among voters aged 35-54
years (44% versus 33%) and the two parties statistically tied among voters aged
18-34 years (38% versus 34%). Older adults of both genders are much more likely
to back a PC candidate in a hypothetical provincial election (56% among men
aged 55 years and over and 46% among women aged 55 years and over).
Middle and High-Income Earners: The PCs have a significant advantage across
most income brackets, with those in higher-income households (47% among
those earning more than $100,000/year) and those in middle-income tiers (44%
among those earning $60,000-$99,999/year and 47% among those earning
$30,000-$59,999/year) being much more likely to prefer the PCs. Support for the
PCs and NDP is relatively even among those in lower-income households (41%
PC versus 38% NDP).
Those with less formal education: Those who have a high school diploma or less
are much more likely to back a PC candidate in a hypothetical provincial
election (54% versus 24% NDP). The PCs do enjoy a slight advantage among
university and college graduates, but it is much less pronounced than it is among
voters with lower levels of formal education (42% versus 36% NDP respectively).

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PROVINCIAL PARTY STANDINGS
AMONG SELECTED SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS
-- June 2014 --
Net Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters
If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which partys candidate
would you be most likely to support?

Total
Gender Age
Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+
(Base) (1,004)
(%)
(n=486)
(%)
(n=518)
(%)
(n=318)
(%)
(n=358)
(%)
(n=284)
(%)
PC 45 51 38 38 44 51
NDP 32 27 36 34 33 28
Liberal 16 16 17 20 14 17
Other 7 6 9 8 9 5


(Base)
Males Females
18-34 35-54 55+ 18-34 35-54 55+
(n=160)
(%)
(n=179)
(%)
(n=127)
(%)
(n=158)
(%)
(n=179)
(%)
(n=157)
(%)
PC 41 53 56 36 34 46
NDP 30 28 24 38 39 31
Liberal 23 11 18 17 18 16
Other 6 8 2 9 9 7
Education Income
HS or
Less
Some
Post-Sec.
Post-Sec.
Grad
<$30K $30K-
$59K
$60K-
$99K
$100K+
(Base) (n=308)
(%)
(n=130)
(%)
(n=557)
(%)
(n=106)
(%)
(n=219)
(%)
(n=271)
(%)
(n=222)
(%)
PC 54 38 42 41 47 44 47
NDP 24 28 36 38 28 35 30
Liberal 16 22 15 12 13 18 19
Other 6 12 6 9 13 3 5





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This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone
interviews conducted between June 10
th
and June 19
th
, 2014 among a random and representative
sampling of 1,004 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,004, one can say with 95 percent certainty
that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult
population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the
surveys population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba
adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical
weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond
with the province as a whole.


For more information on this survey, please contact:

Scott MacKay,
President,
Probe Research Inc.
Suite 850-125 Garry Street,
Winnipeg, Manitoba R3C 3P2
Tel.: (204) 926-6567
Cell: (204) 955-9777
Fax: (204) 926-6566
E-mail: scott@probe-research.com

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