THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY

OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS

THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD


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THE
FIELD
POLL

Release #2472 Release Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2014
BROWN HOLDS BIG EARLY LEAD
OVER KASHKARI FOR GOVERNOR.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject
to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place
before release date or if contents are divulged to
persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release
time. (ISSN 0195-4520)
By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field
The results of the latest Field Poll show incumbent Democratic Governor Jerry Brown leading
Republican challenger Neel Kashkari by twenty points, 52% to 32%, among likely voters in this
years gubernatorial election.
A defining characteristic of the race at this stage relates to the huge differences in the proportions of
voters offering an opinion of the two candidates. Currently, 85% can offer either a positive or
negative appraisal of Brown, while only about half as many (44%) can do so with regard to
Kashkari.
Brown is regarded favorably by 54% of likely voters, while 31% have an unfavorable opinion.
Following his second place showing in the June primary, Kashkari is viewed favorably by 28%,
while 16% of voters hold an unfavorable opinion of him.
In addition, the Poll finds 54% of voters approving of the job Brown is doing as governor, while
29% disapprove.
The post-primary election Field Poll was conducted among 2,013 California adults, including 1,382
registered voters and 982 are considered likely to vote in the November general election. To capture
the racial and ethnic diversity of California, the poll was administered in six languages and dialects.

Table 1
Voter preferences for Governor in the November 2014 general election
Likely
voters
All registered
voters
Jerry Brown (D) 52% 50%
Neel Kashkari (R) 32 28
Undecided 16 22
(D) denotes Democrat (R) denotes Republican

The Field Poll #2472
Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 2
Brown favored by wide margins among most voter subgroups
Browns current lead over Kashkari is very broad-based, although highly partisan. Democrats prefer
Brown by a better than an eleven-to-one margin (82% to 7%). Among no party preference and other
voters, Brown also holds a nearly two-to-one advantage over Kashkari, 49% to 25%. By contrast,
Kashkari is favored among Republicans more than five to one (71% to 13%).
Brown is overwhelmingly supported by political liberals and holds a greater than two-to-one
advantage among middle-of-the-road in politics. Kashkari leads by a greater than seven to one
margin among strongly conservative voters, but runs no better than even among moderate
conservatives.
Brown has big preference leads among voters in the states two largest metropolitan areas, Los
Angles County and the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, which constitute about half of the
likely electorate. Browns lead in Los Angeles County is greater than two to one, while among Bay
Area voters he holds a nearly four-to-one advantage. Kashkari runs about even with Brown among
voters in the South Coast, other parts of Southern California outside of Los Angeles and in the
Central Valley. However, in other parts of Northern California outside the Bay Area Brown is
favored.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are backing the Governor by very large margins.
Brown is also preferred by white non-Hispanics but by a narrower ten-point margin 49% to 39%.
The Governor holds leads among voters in all age groups and among both men and women.

The Field Poll #2472
Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 3
Table 2
Voter preferences for governor across political and demographic subgroups
(among likely voters)
Brown Kashkari Undecided
Total statewide 52% 32 16
Party registration
Democrats 82% 7 11
Republicans 13% 71 16
No party preference/other 49% 25 26
Political ideology
Strongly conservative 10% 75 15
Moderately conservative 40% 42 18
Middle-of-the-road 56% 26 18
Moderately liberal 76% 9 15
Strongly liberal 90% 3 7
Region
Los Angeles County 57% 26 17
South Coast (Orange and San Diego counties) 41% 41 18
Other Southern California 41% 46 13
Central Valley 42% 40 17
San Francisco Bay Area 68% 19 13
Other Northern California* 51% 22 27
Gender
Male 49% 34 17
Female 54% 31 15
Age
18-39 51% 28 21
40-49 53% 28 19
50-64 51% 37 12
65 or older 53% 34 13
Race/ethnicity
White non-Hispanic 49% 39 12
Latino 52% 26 22
African American* 76% 9 15
Asian American* 47% 21 32
* Small sample base.

Huge difference in proportions of voters offering an opinion of the candidates
A defining element of the gubernatorial election contest in the early going is the huge difference in
the proportion of voters offering an opinion of the two candidates.
Currently 85% of likely voters offer an opinion of Brown and it divides 54% favorable and 31%
unfavorable. Just 44% of voters can rate Kashkari, with 28% viewing him favorably and 16%
unfavorably.
The Field Poll #2472
Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 4
Table 3
Trend of voter image ratings of the gubernatorial candidates
(among likely voters)
Jerry Brown Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
June 2014* 54% 31 15
April 2014* 61% 35 4
December 2013 56% 37 7
June 2011 58% 31 11
Late October 2010* 47% 47 6
September 2010* 44% 47 9
July 2010* 42% 40 18
March 2010* 41% 37 22
January 2010* 44% 32 24
October 2009 44% 29 27
October 2005 39% 31 30
May 1992 38% 58 4
May 1991 40% 45 15
February 1990 42% 47 11
July 1986 44% 50 6
May 1980 49% 50 1
May 1978 71% 23 6
May 1977 69% 21 10

Neel Kashkari
June 2014* 28% 16 56
April 2014* 16% 20 64
December 2013 9% 8 83
* Survey conducted among likely voters. Other surveys among all registered voters.

Opinions of Brown have waxed and waned over the years
Brown, 76, has been a prominent figure on the states political stage for over forty years. While he
is now Californias 39
th
Governor, he previously served as the states 34
th
Governor between 1975
and 1983. Before and after his terms as Governor, Brown also served in numerous state and local
positions, including Secretary of State, chair of the State Democratic Party, Mayor of Oakland and
Attorney General. In addition, he unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for President in
1976, 1980, and 1992, and lost to Republican Pete Wilson in the 1982 election for U.S. Senate.
Browns popularity with California voters has waxed and waned over the years. In May 1978,
shortly before his re-election to a second term as Governor, The Field Poll found 71% of voters
viewed him favorably and 23% held an unfavorable opinion. Fourteen years later in May 1992,
during Browns third unsuccessful bid for President, 58% of California voters viewed him
negatively and 38% held a positive view.
The Field Poll #2472
Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 5
A review of Browns job performance as governor during his current and former tenures exhibit
similar positive and negative gyrations. Brown received very positive job performance ratings from
voters during the initial years of his first term as Governor in the mid-1970s. In fact, the approval
ratings that Brown received in 1975 and 1976 were among the highest ever recorded by The Field
Poll, with 66% - 69% of voters approving of his performance. However, by the middle of his
second term, voter opinions of Browns performance turned negative and from May 1979 to the end
of his second term voters consistently disapproved than approved of the job he was doing.
In each of nine separate Field Poll measures conducted during the first two years of his current
term, a plurality have approved of the job Brown was doing. In five subsequent measures completed
since February 2013 large majorities, ranging from 51% to 59%, have rated him positively. At
present, 54% of voters approve of the job he is doing, while 29% disapprove.

The Field Poll #2472
Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 6
Table 4
Job performance of Brown during his current and previous tenure as Governor
(among registered voters)
Current tenure as Governor Approve Disapprove No opinion
June 2014 54% 29 17
April 2014 59% 32 9
December 2013 58% 33 9
July 2013 51% 33 16
February 2013 57% 31 12
October 2012* 46% 37 17
September 2012 46% 37 17
July 2012 44% 42 14
Late May 2012 43% 40 17
February 2012 45% 38 17
November 2011 47% 36 17
September 2011 49% 32 19
June 2011 46% 31 23
March 2011 48% 21 31

Previous tenure as Governor
August 1982 43% 54 3
January 1982 39% 58 3
October 1981 40% 58 2
August 1981 42% 56 2
January 1981 48% 49 3
October 1980 49% 49 2
July 1980 46% 52 3
April 1980 38% 61 1
February 1980 41% 57 2
May 1979 46% 49 5
February 1979 54% 42 4
August 1978 50% 45 5
February 1978 52% 38 10
October 1977 60% 35 5
November 1976 58% 33 9
August 1976 66% 30 4
March 1976 69% 25 6
November 1975 67% 24 9

* Survey conducted among likely voters.
Note: For surveys conducted prior to 1994, original surveys used a five-point response scale that was converted to the current two-
point approve/disapprove scale for comparative purposes.
The Field Poll #2472
Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 7
Kashkaris history
Kashkari, 41, was born and raised in Ohio and graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign. He worked initially as an aerospace engineer. After attending business school at the
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, he changed careers and became an investment
banker, covering the information technology security sector for Goldman Sachs.
In 2008 he was appointed Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stability by President
George W. Bush. In that post he oversaw the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that was a
major component of the U.S. government's response to the financial crisis of 200708.
Kashkari left government in May 2009 and took an executive position for the Pacific Investment
Management Company (Pimco) later that year. In January 2013 he resigned from Pimco to explore
a run for public office, and in January 2014 he announced his candidacy for Governor of California.
Kashkari finished second in the June open primary, receiving 19.4% of the vote to Browns 54.3%.
Thirteen other candidates accounted for the remaining 26.3% of the vote.


30


The Field Poll #2472
Wednesday, June 25, 2014 Page 8
Information About The Survey
Methodological Details
The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll completed June 5-22, 2014. The survey was conducted
among a random sample of 2,013 California adults, of whom 1,382 reported being registered to vote and 982
are considered likely to vote in the November general election. Some of the questions in this report were
based on a random subsample of the total registered voter sample.
To capture the diversity of the California adult population, the survey was administered in six languages and
dialects English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese and Korean, depending on the preference of
the voter.
The sample was developed using dual frame random digit dial landline and cell phone listings covering the
state of California. For this survey, a total of 1,402 interviews were conducted with respondents on their cell
phone and 611 were conducted on a landline or other type of phone. The combined landline and cell phone
sample was weighted to match demographic, geographic and voter registration estimates of the adult
population in California. The weighting process also takes into account the higher probability of reaching
respondents who receive calls on both a landline and cell phone.
Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and
the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall
registered voter sample is +/- 2.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings based on the
likely voter sample have a maximum sampling error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. In addition, the maximum
sample error applicable to findings based on the random subsample of voters is +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The maximum sampling error estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling
distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at either tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to
10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys
of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to
minimize these other possible errors.
The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor.
The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public
opinion. The Poll receives funding from media subscribers, from California foundations and independent
not-for-profit organizations, and from the University of California and California State University systems,
who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary
research purposes.

Questions Asked
(ASKED OF A RANDOM SUBSAMPLE OF 724 REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California?
(ASKED OF 982 LIKELY VOTERS) In the upcoming November general election for Governor, the candidates
are (NAMES AND PARTIES OF CANDIDATES IN RANDOM ORDER). If the election were being held today, for
whom would you vote for Governor?
(ASKED OF 982 LIKELY VOTERS) Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
(Governor Jerry Brown) (businessman Neel Kashkari)? (READ IN RANDOM ORDER)