Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0. DegC. Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased. "Balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate" "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"
Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0. DegC. Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased. "Balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate" "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"
Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0. DegC. Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased. "Balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate" "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities"
Mitigation/Adaptation options During the last century, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing have continued to rise as a result of human activities. Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0.6 C. Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased. The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate (IPCC, SAR, 1995) Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm Current level: 360 ppm Level in 2100: Our Atmosphere is Changing Our Atmosphere is Changing discernable human influence on global climate (IPCC, SAR, 1995) There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities (IPCC, TAR, 2001) CO2 Concentrations and Global Average Temperatures Will Continue to Rise 1.2 Level in 2100: ~700 ppm with large uncertainty Source: IPCC, 2001 Climate Changes and Impacts Climate Changes and Impacts Wildfire Flood Drought New diseases Heat waves Not enough water Too much water Hot water Not enough snowpack In-migration Heat waves Big storms Coastal erosion Landslides No fish Wetland loss In-migration Rising sea levels Ocean temperatures Ocean pH Habitat changes
Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors. Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge Impacts disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest people, exacerbating inequities in health status and Developing Countries are the Developing Countries are the Most Vulnerable to Climate Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Change exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. 1.4 Two options: Mitigation to prevent climate change from happeneing Adaptation to cope with it At the begining people were reticent about adaptation as it may be an incitative for governments not to take mitigation actions Adaptation is now the priority DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Adaptation is now the priority Mitigation is defined as any anthropogenic interventions that can either reduce the sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (abatement) or enhance their sinks (sequestration). Definitions Definitions 1.6 Need to examine long-run opportunities for reducing carbon sources or enhancing sinks, bearing in mind the life-times of various appliances and systems. Rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of capital stock. Nuclear 30 60 years Coal power 45+ yrs Hydro 75+ yrs Buildings 45+++ years MITIGATION TIME MITIGATION TIME--FRAME FRAME lifetime of capital stock. 1.7 Motor vehicles 12 20 years Nuclear 30 60 years Gas turbines 25+ years Includes energy demand and supply, forestry, agriculture, rangelands and waste management. Includes analysis of the impact of options on the macro-economy. Considers policies and programs that can encourage adoption of mitigation MITIGATION MITIGATION encourage adoption of mitigation technologies and practices 1.8 Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 will require significant emissions will require significant emissions reductions reductions 1.9 Source: IPCC Has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change and can produce ancillary benefits, but cannot prevent all damages. Numerous adaptation options have been identified that can reduce adverse and enhance beneficial impacts of climate change. Greater and more rapid climate change would ADAPTATION ADAPTATION Greater and more rapid climate change would pose greater challenges for adaptation. Lower levels of future GHG concentrations will make the adaptation challenge easier. 1.10 Climate change will shift demand and supply of water Allocations across users must change given new demand and supply If new marginal values are not equated, damages can be large WATER ADAPTATION WATER ADAPTATION Lack of basic information Insufficient monitoring and observation systems Settlements in vulnerable areas Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework Lack of capacity DIFFICULTIES IN ADAPTATION DIFFICULTIES IN ADAPTATION Lack of capacity Low income Adaptation to climate change Adaptation to climate change requires.. requires.. Science based knowledge Resilient development policies Behavioral change Appropriate institutions and regulatory Appropriate institutions and regulatory mechanisms Adequate economic resources and instruments Regional & international cooperation Need to determine demand for water by use (urban, industrial, mining, farming) Aggregate demand functions Equate aggregate demand with supply Water allocation inefficient if marginal value varies across users Optimal allocation equates marginal Evaluating Water Impacts Evaluating Water Impacts Optimal allocation equates marginal values Often critical to both managed and natural systems Human activity influences both systems Example: Agriculture Example: Wetlands Water Resources Water Resources A Critical V&A Sector A Critical V&A Sector Natural Systems External Pressure State of System Little Control of processes Managed Systems External Pressure Product, good or service Process Control services Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation Water Supply Water Supply Construction/modification of physical infrastructure Canal linings Closed conduits instead of open channels Integrating separate reservoirs into a single Integrating separate reservoirs into a single system Reservoirs/hydroplants/delivery systems Raising dam wall height Increasing canal size Removing sediment from reservoirs for more storage Interbasin water transfers Adaptive management of existing water supply systems Change operating rules Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply Physically integrate reservoir operation Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation Water Supply Water Supply(continued) (continued) Physically integrate reservoir operation system Coordinate supply/demand Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation Water Supply Water Supply (continued) (continued) Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology Domestic Municipal and in-home re-use Leak repair Rainwater collection for nonpotable uses Low flow appliances Dual supply systems (potable and nonpotable) Dual supply systems (potable and nonpotable) Agricultural Irrigation timing and efficiency Lining of canals, closed conduits Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent High value/low water use crops Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application irrigation systems Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation Water Supply (continued) Water Supply (continued) Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology (continued) Industrial Water re-use and recycling Closed cycle and/or air cooling More efficient hydropower turbines Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers Energy (hydropower) Reservoir re-operation Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat) Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations Low head run of the river hydropower Market/price-driven transfers to other activities Using water price to shift water use between sectors Tools in Water Resource Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies V&A Studies Hydrologic models (physical processes) Simulate river basin hydrologic processes Examples water balance, rainfall-runoff, lake simulation, stream water quality models Water resource models (physical and management) management) Simulate current and future supply/demand of system Operating rules and policies Environmental impacts Hydroelectric production Decision support systems (DSS) for policy interaction Economic models Macroeconomic Multiple sectors of the economy General equilibrium all markets are in equilibrium Sectoral level Single market or closely related markets (e.g., agriculture) Firm level Tools in Water Resource Tools in Water Resource V&A Studies (continued) V&A Studies (continued) Firm level Farm-level model (linear programming approach) Microsimulation Precipitation amount Global average increase Marked regional differences Precipitation frequency and intensity Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al., 2003) Evaporation and transpiration Increase total evaporation Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere interactions Hydrologic Implications of Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change Climate Change interactions Changes in runoff Despite global precipitation increases, areas of substantial runoff decrease Coastal zones Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers Severe storm-surge flooding Water quality Lower flows could lead to higher Hydrologic Implications of Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change (continued) Climate Change (continued) Lower flows could lead to higher contaminant concentrations Higher flows could lead to greater leaching and sediment transport What Problems Are What Problems Are We Trying to Address? We Trying to Address? Water planning (daily, weekly, monthly, annual) Local and regional Municipal and industrial Ecosystems Reservoir storage Competing demand Competing demand Operation of infrastructure and hydraulics (daily and sub-daily) Dam and reservoir operation Canal control Hydropower optimization Flood and floodplain inundation Water quantity Water for agriculture Water for nature The Water Resource Sector The Water Resource Sector Waters Trade Waters Trade--Off Landscape Off Landscape Water quantity Water quality Seasonality of flow Regulation Domestic water Water for industry Water for recreation Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or streamflow But an evaluation of the potential impacts of global warming on the goods and services provided by freshwater systems Water Resources from Water Resources from a Services Perspective a Services Perspective Extractable;DirectUse;IndirectUse
Recre- ation, aesth. beauty Trans -port
Power gener.
Nutr. cycl- ing Regen. of soil fertility
Water for ag., urban, indust.
Har- vest. biota
Flood/ drought mitig. Water purifi- cation
Ero- sion con- trol
Habitat / biodi- versity Upper Rivers
Recre- ation, aesth. beauty Trans -port
Power gener.
Nutr. cycl- ing Regen. of soil fertility
Water for ag., urban, indust.
Har- vest. biota
Flood/ drought mitig. Water purifi- cation
Ero- sion con- trol
Habitat / biodi- versity Upper Rivers
Bay Delta Lower Rivers
Bay Delta Lower Rivers Freshwater Ecosystem Services Freshwater Ecosystem Services
Standard Test Method For Determination of The Proportion of Phases in Portland Cement and Portland-Cement Clinker Using Xray Powder Diffraction Analysis