You are on page 1of 27

ADRESSING THE CLIMATE ADRESSING THE CLIMATE

CHANGE THREAT CHANGE THREAT CHANGE THREAT CHANGE THREAT


Mitigation/Adaptation options
During the last century, the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases and their
radiative forcing have continued to rise as a
result of human activities.
Global average surface temperatures have
increased by about 0.6 C.
Global average sea level has risen and ocean
heat content has increased.
The balance of evidence suggests a
discernable human influence on global
climate (IPCC, SAR, 1995)
Pre-industrial
level: 280 ppm
Current level:
360 ppm
Level in 2100:
Our Atmosphere is Changing Our Atmosphere is Changing
discernable human influence on global
climate (IPCC, SAR, 1995)
There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over the last
50 years is attributable to human activities
(IPCC, TAR, 2001)
CO2 Concentrations and Global Average
Temperatures Will Continue to Rise
1.2
Level in 2100:
~700 ppm with
large uncertainty
Source: IPCC, 2001
Climate Changes and Impacts Climate Changes and Impacts
Wildfire
Flood
Drought
New diseases
Heat waves
Not enough water
Too much water
Hot water
Not enough snowpack
In-migration
Heat waves
Big storms
Coastal erosion
Landslides
No fish
Wetland loss
In-migration
Rising sea levels
Ocean temperatures
Ocean pH
Habitat changes

Impacts are worse - already more flood and
drought prone and a large share of the
economy is in climate sensitive sectors.
Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of
financial, institutional and technological
capacity and access to knowledge
Impacts disproportionately upon the
poorest countries and the poorest people,
exacerbating inequities in health status and
Developing Countries are the Developing Countries are the
Most Vulnerable to Climate Most Vulnerable to Climate
Change Change
exacerbating inequities in health status and
access to adequate food, clean water and other
resources.
1.4
Two options:
Mitigation to prevent climate change from
happeneing
Adaptation to cope with it
At the begining people were reticent about
adaptation as it may be an incitative for
governments not to take mitigation actions
Adaptation is now the priority
DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
Adaptation is now the priority
Mitigation is defined as any
anthropogenic interventions that can
either reduce the sources of greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions (abatement) or
enhance their sinks (sequestration).
Definitions Definitions
1.6
Need to examine long-run
opportunities for reducing
carbon sources or enhancing
sinks, bearing in mind the
life-times of various
appliances and systems.
Rate of technological change
is closely related to the
lifetime of capital stock.
Nuclear 30 60 years
Coal power 45+ yrs
Hydro 75+ yrs
Buildings 45+++ years
MITIGATION TIME MITIGATION TIME--FRAME FRAME
lifetime of capital stock.
1.7
Motor vehicles 12 20 years
Nuclear 30 60 years
Gas turbines 25+ years
Includes energy demand and supply,
forestry, agriculture, rangelands and
waste management.
Includes analysis of the impact of options
on the macro-economy.
Considers policies and programs that can
encourage adoption of mitigation
MITIGATION MITIGATION
encourage adoption of mitigation
technologies and practices
1.8
Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 Stabilization of atmospheric CO2
will require significant emissions will require significant emissions
reductions reductions
1.9
Source: IPCC
Has the potential to reduce adverse effects of
climate change and can produce ancillary
benefits, but cannot prevent all damages.
Numerous adaptation options have been
identified that can reduce adverse and
enhance beneficial impacts of climate
change.
Greater and more rapid climate change would
ADAPTATION ADAPTATION
Greater and more rapid climate change would
pose greater challenges for adaptation.
Lower levels of future GHG concentrations
will make the adaptation challenge easier.
1.10
Climate change will shift demand and
supply of water
Allocations across users must change
given new demand and supply
If new marginal values are not equated,
damages can be large
WATER ADAPTATION WATER ADAPTATION
Lack of basic information
Insufficient monitoring and observation
systems
Settlements in vulnerable areas
Appropriate political, technological and
institutional framework
Lack of capacity
DIFFICULTIES IN ADAPTATION DIFFICULTIES IN ADAPTATION
Lack of capacity
Low income
Adaptation to climate change Adaptation to climate change
requires.. requires..
Science based knowledge
Resilient development policies
Behavioral change
Appropriate institutions and regulatory Appropriate institutions and regulatory
mechanisms
Adequate economic resources and
instruments
Regional & international cooperation
Need to determine demand for water by
use (urban, industrial, mining, farming)
Aggregate demand functions
Equate aggregate demand with supply
Water allocation inefficient if marginal
value varies across users
Optimal allocation equates marginal
Evaluating Water Impacts Evaluating Water Impacts
Optimal allocation equates marginal
values
Often critical to both managed and
natural systems
Human activity influences both
systems
Example: Agriculture
Example: Wetlands
Water Resources Water Resources
A Critical V&A Sector A Critical V&A Sector
Natural
Systems
External
Pressure
State of System
Little Control
of processes
Managed
Systems
External
Pressure
Product, good
or service
Process Control
services
Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation
Water Supply Water Supply
Construction/modification of physical
infrastructure
Canal linings
Closed conduits instead of open channels
Integrating separate reservoirs into a single Integrating separate reservoirs into a single
system
Reservoirs/hydroplants/delivery systems
Raising dam wall height
Increasing canal size
Removing sediment from reservoirs for more
storage
Interbasin water transfers
Adaptive management of existing
water supply systems
Change operating rules
Use conjunctive surface/groundwater
supply
Physically integrate reservoir operation
Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation
Water Supply Water Supply(continued) (continued)
Physically integrate reservoir operation
system
Coordinate supply/demand
Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation
Water Supply Water Supply (continued) (continued)
Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
Domestic
Municipal and in-home re-use
Leak repair
Rainwater collection for nonpotable uses
Low flow appliances
Dual supply systems (potable and nonpotable) Dual supply systems (potable and nonpotable)
Agricultural
Irrigation timing and efficiency
Lining of canals, closed conduits
Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent
High value/low water use crops
Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision application
irrigation systems
Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain
water
Examples of Adaptation Examples of Adaptation
Water Supply (continued) Water Supply (continued)
Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
(continued)
Industrial
Water re-use and recycling
Closed cycle and/or air cooling
More efficient hydropower turbines
Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers
Energy (hydropower)
Reservoir re-operation
Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)
Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations
Low head run of the river hydropower
Market/price-driven transfers to other activities
Using water price to shift water use between sectors
Tools in Water Resource Tools in Water Resource
V&A Studies V&A Studies
Hydrologic models (physical processes)
Simulate river basin hydrologic processes
Examples water balance, rainfall-runoff, lake
simulation, stream water quality models
Water resource models (physical and
management) management)
Simulate current and future supply/demand of
system
Operating rules and policies
Environmental impacts
Hydroelectric production
Decision support systems (DSS)
for policy interaction
Economic models
Macroeconomic
Multiple sectors of the economy
General equilibrium all markets are in
equilibrium
Sectoral level
Single market or closely related markets
(e.g., agriculture)
Firm level
Tools in Water Resource Tools in Water Resource
V&A Studies (continued) V&A Studies (continued)
Firm level
Farm-level model (linear programming
approach)
Microsimulation
Precipitation amount
Global average increase
Marked regional differences
Precipitation frequency and intensity
Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al., 2003)
Evaporation and transpiration
Increase total evaporation
Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere
interactions
Hydrologic Implications of Hydrologic Implications of
Climate Change Climate Change
interactions
Changes in runoff
Despite global precipitation increases,
areas of substantial runoff decrease
Coastal zones
Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers
Severe storm-surge flooding
Water quality
Lower flows could lead to higher
Hydrologic Implications of Hydrologic Implications of
Climate Change (continued) Climate Change (continued)
Lower flows could lead to higher
contaminant concentrations
Higher flows could lead to greater leaching
and sediment transport
What Problems Are What Problems Are
We Trying to Address? We Trying to Address?
Water planning (daily, weekly, monthly,
annual)
Local and regional
Municipal and industrial
Ecosystems
Reservoir storage
Competing demand Competing demand
Operation of infrastructure and hydraulics
(daily and sub-daily)
Dam and reservoir operation
Canal control
Hydropower optimization
Flood and floodplain inundation
Water quantity
Water for agriculture
Water for nature
The Water Resource Sector The Water Resource Sector
Waters Trade Waters Trade--Off Landscape Off Landscape
Water quantity
Water quality
Seasonality of flow
Regulation
Domestic water
Water for industry
Water for recreation
Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or
streamflow
But an evaluation of the potential impacts
of global warming on the goods and
services provided by freshwater systems
Water Resources from Water Resources from
a Services Perspective a Services Perspective
Extractable;DirectUse;IndirectUse

Recre-
ation,
aesth.
beauty
Trans
-port

Power
gener.

Nutr.
cycl-
ing
Regen.
of soil
fertility

Water
for ag.,
urban,
indust.

Har-
vest.
biota

Flood/
drought
mitig.
Water
purifi-
cation

Ero-
sion
con-
trol

Habitat
/
biodi-
versity
Upper
Rivers

Recre-
ation,
aesth.
beauty
Trans
-port

Power
gener.

Nutr.
cycl-
ing
Regen.
of soil
fertility

Water
for ag.,
urban,
indust.

Har-
vest.
biota

Flood/
drought
mitig.
Water
purifi-
cation

Ero-
sion
con-
trol

Habitat
/
biodi-
versity
Upper
Rivers




























Bay
Delta
Lower
Rivers




























Bay
Delta
Lower
Rivers
Freshwater Ecosystem Services Freshwater Ecosystem Services

You might also like