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Anhui Conch Cement (914.HK/HK$23): HOLD
3Q08 Results Short of Expectation
Wei LUO, luowei@cicc.com.cn (SFC CE Ref: AIR591)
Xue GUAN, guanxue@cicc.com.cn
Tel: (8621) 5879 6226
October 22, 2008
Event:
Anhui Conch Cement released its 3Q08 results: operating income Rmb6.478bn (up 40.3% YoY), net profits Rmb704mn (up
13.3% YoY), and EPS Rmb0.4 (up 0.5% YoY). Over 1~3Q08: operating income Rmb16.675bn (up 28.6% YoY), net profits
Rmb2.018bn (up 34.3% YoY), and EPS Rmb1.14 (up 19.1% YoY).
Our comments:
3Q08 results are 18% below expectations, mainly because gross margin was squeezed by unexpectedly slow cement price
growth and strong cost growth in 3Q. Coal prices remained high in the third quarter despite a decline since late September. The
company’s 3Q gross profit fell by Rmb6 YoY to only Rmb60/tonne, and its gross margin shrank 6.4ppt YoY to merely 24.5%.
Cement and clinker sales grew 22% YoY to 26.50mn tonnes in 3Q and 16% YoY (10mn tonnes) to 71.50mn tonnes in 1~3Q08.
The company is expected to launch 16 production lines in 2008, increasing its theoretical cement production capacity by
14.60mn tonnes. Ten of these lines with be in eastern China (Anhui and Jiangxi), four in central China (Hubei and Hunan), and
two in southern China (Guangxi).
This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy
or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of
companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China
International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of
unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission.
Breaking Events
Financial data improved significantly. The company repaid some debts after the successful follow-on offering. Its long-term
and short-term borrowing balances declined Rmb1.6bn and Rmb1.0bn from 1H08 levels, respectively. The debt/asset ratio fell
further to 39.8%, the net gearing ratio declined to 26%, and the interest coverage ratio reached 5.69x. Cash net inflow was
Rmb4.03bn in 1~3Q and the ending cash balance was Rmb5.44bn.
Gloomy 4Q08 results outlook: The sharp property investment slowdown has negatively affected the real estate industry,
putting downward pressure on demand in southern and eastern markets. We expect the company’s cement prices to fall in 4Q.
Although coal prices are expected to decline as well, we believe cement prices may fall faster than cost, eroding the company’s
4Q08 gross profit YoY.
Declining cement industry climate: Leading indicators suggest a sharp decline in 2009 property and industrial investment
growth. As a result, cement demand growth is expected to slow to 6% in 2008 and 4.8% in 2009. Cement prices and industry
profitability may decline in 2009 and the first half of the year may be the toughest period. However, the cement industry may
start to recover in 2H08 if the government introduces forceful supportive policies over the next nine months, real estate demand
recovers, property development investment growth stabilizes, and infrastructure spending rises.
Earnings forecast and HOLD rating maintained on H-share with target price of HK$30: As the 3Q bottom line is below
expectations, the company’s full-year earnings are quite likely to fall short of expectations as well. However, we believe it
offers long-term investment value since the company is an industry leader with the most competent management, the best cost
control, and strong risk resilience among peers. It can benefit from industry consolidation during the down-cycle. Although we
believe the cement industry’s fundamentals are unlikely to turn around in the next nine months, policy easing on the real estate
industry and infrastructure investment may shorten the industry down-cycle and provide a boost to the stock price. Investors
should keep an eye out for possible rebounds stimulated by policy developments.
340
(Rmb/tonne)
300
260
220
00- 00- 01- 01- 02- 02- 03- 03- 04- 04- 05- 05- 06- 06- 07- 07- 08- 08-
01 07 01 07 01 07 01 07 01 07 01 07 01 07 01 07 01 07
This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy
or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of
companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China
International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of
unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission.
Breaking Events
This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy
or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of
companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China
International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of
unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission.
Breaking Events
H share
Anhui Conch HKD 23 13.6 11.1 12.4 3.4 1.4 1.3 9.2 5.3 6.0 25.4% 12.3% 10.3%
CNBM HKD 3.63 8.3 4.6 4.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 9.7 8.4 7.0 12.4% 17.1% 14.4%
Sinoma HKD 2.8 16.1 11.0 7.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.0 3.7 2.1 8.7% 12.0% 17.1%
H share Average 13.6 11.0 7.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 9.2 5.3 6.0 12.4% 12.3% 14.4%
Europe
Cemex SAB de CV USD 7.9 2.6 3.7 3.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 n.a n.a n.a 15.7% 9.3% 9.8%
Holcim CHF 68.4 6.9 7.7 7.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 5.0 5.7 5.6 14.0% 11.8% 11.1%
HeidelbergCement AG EUR 67.71 5.4 7.1 6.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 8.8 6.5 6.3 21.6% 14.0% 13.2%
Lafarge SA EUR 56.55 6.0 5.4 5.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 7.2 6.0 5.6 15.1% 14.4% 14.1%
Europe Average 5.7 6.2 5.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 7.2 6.0 5.6 15.4% 12.9% 12.1%
India
ACC Ltd INR 476 6.5 7.5 8.6 2.1 1.8 1.6 3.6 4.2 4.6 33.0% 24.2% 18.6%
Grasim Industries INR 1224.9 6.4 4.6 4.6 1.7 1.2 1.0 5.2 3.6 3.6 26.9% 26.9% 21.1%
India Cements INR 90.45 4.7 3.5 3.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 5.8 3.4 3.2 24.3% 26.1% 18.9%
Shree Cement INR 477 4.9 n.a 3.8 2.6 n.a 1.7 4.4 n.a 3.0 54.3% n.a 44.6%
Ultra Tech Cement INR 372.8 5.9 4.6 4.7 2.8 1.7 1.3 4.7 3.4 3.4 47.3% 37.2% 27.3%
Adelaide Brighton AUD 2.65 12.9 11.7 10.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 8.3 7.4 6.6 17.0% 17.8% 19.6%
India Average 6.2 4.6 4.6 2.2 1.7 1.4 5.0 3.6 3.5 29.9% 26.1% 20.4%
Fiber glass
Asahi Glass JPY 659 10.6 7.6 6.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 4.1 3.8 3.7 7.4% 10.0% 11.2%
Nitto Boseki JPY 151 8.2 6.5 9.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.0 3.5 6.2% 7.6% 5.2%
Saint-Gobain EUR 29.05 5.1 5.4 5.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 14.3% 12.6% 11.2%
Average 8.2 6.5 6.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 4.1 3.8 3.7 7.4% 10.0% 11.2%
Engineering services
China Sinoma Intl Engineeri CNY 46.05 30.4 19.1 12.9 7.9 6.3 4.7 4.9 3.5 1.8 25.8% 32.9% 36.0%
FLSmidth DKK 214.25 8.6 6.2 4.8 2.8 2.1 1.5 6.0 4.2 3.3 32.2% 33.2% 32.4%
Average 19.5 12.7 8.8 5.3 4.2 3.1 5.5 3.8 2.6 29.0% 33.0% 34.2%
This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy
or sell the securities mentioned. China International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities of
companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China
International Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited. Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of
unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC’s written permission.
Beijing
China International Capital Corporation Limited China International Capital Corporation Limited
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1 Jianguomenwai Avenue 1st Floor, Capital Tower
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Beijing, 100022
Tel: (8610) 6505-1166
Fax: (8610) 6505-1156 Tel: (8610) 8567-9238
Fax: (8610) 8567-9169
Shanghai
China International Capital Corporation Limited China International Capital Corporation Limited
Shanghai Branch Shanghai Middle Huaihai Road Securities Trading Branch
32nd Floor, Azia Center B1-B2, Century Autobus Tower
1233 Lujiazui Ring Road 398 Middle Huaihai Road
Shanghai, 200120 Shanghai, 200020
Hong Kong
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(Hong Kong) Limited Hong Kong Securities Limited
29th Floor, One International Finance Centre 29th Floor, One International Finance Centre
1 Harbour View Street 1 Harbour View Street
Central Hong Kong Central Hong Kong
Shenzhen
China International Capital Corporation China International Capital Corporation Limited
Hong Kong Asset Management Limited Shenzhen Fuhua 1st Road Securities Trading Branch
29th Floor, One International Finance Centre 107 & 201, Annex Bldg, Shenzhen Duty Free Commercial Tower
1 Harbour View Street 6 Fuhua 1st Road
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This report is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete.
This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. China
International Capital Corporation Limited and others associated with it (CICC) may have positions in, and may effect
transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment
banking services for those companies. This report may also be made available in Hong Kong by China International
Capital Corporation (Hong Kong) Limited and/or China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited.
Copyright of this report belongs to CICC. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication, release or
quotation by any institution or individual is prohibited without CICC's written permission.