From HALT Results

From HALT Results

To An Accurate
To An Accurate
Field MTBF
Field MTBF
Estimate
Estimate
Harry McLean
Advanced Energy Industries
January, 2010
hmclean46@msn.com
This material is protected by the copyright laws of USA.
Any reproduction of this material is prohibited by law.
Mike Silverman
Ops A La Carte
January, 2010
mikes@opsalacarte.com
Speakers Biography
Harry McLean
Member of Technical Staff
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
Over 20 years direct involvement with techniques
Credentials:
BSEE Northeastern University in Boston.
Invented HASA process at HP for DeskJet Printers. Advances made at AT&T.
Authored papers on reliability and facilities engineering.
Republished book HALT, HASS & HASA Explained in 2009 through ASQ.
Holds four reliability patents. This is the fifth one.
Has taught HALT & HASS for last 15 years in US and Brazil in Portuguese.
Held various positions during 25 year career at HP.
Managed Reliability Engineering & Quality Systems at AT&T Wireless for 5+
years and 3 years at Xantrex Technology in British Columbia, Canada.
Have we ever wanted to use the HALT data to
estimate AFR and we were
Told it couldnt be done
Frustrated by your lack of data
Lacking the bandwidth to develop a model
Other impediments?
A Few Questions
Historical
Began thinking about this in late 1990s.
Began developing a model in 2000.
Stopped shortly thereafter.
Development restarted with new approach in 2005.
Demoed model to 3 engineers in 2008.
Obtained validation data from others late 2008.
Presentation at IEEE/ASTR October 2008.
Validation in 2009.
Available through Ops A La Carte (408) 472-3889.
We will discuss a high level concept of the mathematical model
but will NOT discuss its details as it will be patent pending.
Some Background
Highly Accelerated Life Testing (HALT) is a
great reliability process used for quickly finding
failure mechanisms in a hardware product.
In many cases, there is a need to know the
MTBF or Actual field Failure Rate (AFR) of a
product in the field (customer requirement).
When this is the situation, most people turn to
Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT).
5
Is there a better way?
What is the AFR Estimator
It is a patent pending Excel-based mathe-
matical model that, when provided with the
appropriate HALT and product information, will
accurately estimate the products field AFR or
Actual field Failure Rate.
Three acceleration models are used, linear,
exponential, and quadratic.
The model will also provide HASS or HASA
time to detect a shift in the desired outgoing
failure rate.
The AFR Estimator has been validated on
almost thirty products from diverse design
environments and manufacturers.
6
Recommendation:
Obtain HALT, HASS, & HASA Explained
It is highly recommended that you have a copy
of, HALT, HASS, & HASA Explained, and use
it as a reference when performing HALT, HASS,
or HASA. This is the best source when
performing any of these on a product, and
following the book will ensure that the stressing
process will be properly done and that the
calculator will provide excellent results.
7
HALT, HASS, and HASA Explained Harry McLean at ASQ.org or Amazon.com
Complete at least one HALT observing:
The need for a sample size of at least three, preferably four units.
Model can accommodate 1 to 6.
Realize that HALT sample sizes of three or less will dramatically affect the
ability to detect product defects and hence, the statistical confidence is
likewise, impacted.
Performing HALT at each phase of Product Development Process.
HALT Product Operational Response Limits are required.
Ten minute (or greater but consistent) dwells for thermal and
vibration.
Including rapid thermal and combined environments. (Accounted
for but not used as user inputs to model.)
Continued
To Maximize Use of the Model
To Maximize Use of the Model
Test product throughout. Include power cycling. Use a
robust test protocol.
All issues are corrected at least up to Guard Band Limits
(beyond, preferably).
Timely corrective actions are verified in HALT.
The units for HALT are the same configuration as field ones.
All interfaces, even if tested on another design, must be re
HALTd.
The end use environment is the same as HALT tested one.
Clarification: Load, thermal, product duty cycle, AC power, etc.
are all to be considered when applying a HALT qualified unit in a
different application.
Access to MTBF estimate
Guard Band, Spec & End Use
New End Use
Prod Spec
End Use
Linear Acceleration
Two other acceleration models are used in the estimation
equation.
Overview of Equations
HALT AFR:
AFR, (MTBF*Factor
1
, Thermal Range*Factor
2
, Vib-
ration*Factor
3
, Vibration Table*Factor
4
, Sample Size
*Factor
5
)
Confidence Limits:

2
from Semi E10 (based on HALT AFR & HALT sample
size)
Days for Detectable Shift in AFR (HASS):
n = (Z

+Z

)
2
*p*(1-p)/d
2
and Days = n/Sample Size
Limitations of the Model
The model has not been validated on mechanical
designs.
The estimate is as good as the test protocol used in
HALT and other reliability tests. HALT does not
capture every possible design defect, i.e., humidity
related issues, field operation beyond Guard Band
limits, some wear-out mechanisms, etc.
The units in HALT need to be tested with a protocol that
sufficiently tests the product in each stress environment. A
recommended starting point is 75% test coverage.
Why Use the AFR Estimator
HALT takes a few days to run and to implement its
corrective action(s), and even if its a bit longer, this time
would be far less than waiting for an RDT to run and to
implement its corrective action(s).
It can be a huge time and cost saver. Consider life test for new
technologies or existing part/design in a different application but
not to accurately estimate AFR.
Higher HALT limits equate to lower AFR, this tool can accurately
estimate the field AFR before launching the product.
Stress levels in the Prod Env Table are highly recommended for
HALT. These can assure the product should exceed customer
expectations and for accurate forecasting of warranty expenses.
Seven to ten simple data points (most coming from HALT), the AFR
Estimator can provide accurate field AFR instantaneously and 90%
statistical confidence limits based on HALT sample size and AFR.
14
Why Use the AFR Estimator
For HASS or HASA:
Will you perform HASS or HASA (Yes=1, No=0),
The Daily Sample Size is the number of units that will be
subjected to the HASS or HASA process in a twenty-four hour
shift.
If the HASS or HASA process control chart varies dramatically from
shift to shift, then use an eight hour shift sample size until the control
variables are under statistical control.
The Detectable Shift in AFR is the delta between the outgoing
AFR and the detectable shift in outgoing quality (from HASS or
HASA) that you wish to detect. For example, if the product
baseline AFR is 4% and the worst case AFR is 10%, the
Detectable Shift value is to be 6 (6%).
15
Published
Spec, C
Level Application Guard Band, C
0 to +40 1 Consumer -30 to +80
0 to +50 2 Hi-end Consumer -30 to +100
-10 to +50 3 Hi Performance -40 to +110
-20 to +50 4 Critical Application -50 to +110
-25 to +65 5 Sheltered -50 to +110
-40 to +85 6 All Outdoor -65 to +110
Product Type & Guard Band
Product Environment & Level
HALT Chamber
What was the chamber used for the HALT?
In HASS or HASA, one will need to normalize the
vibration data you must be consistent.
Example for Vehicle Inverter/Charger
Field Failure Rate Estimate - % of Failures/Year
Input Matrix Data Verifiy
MTBF (in Hrs) = 56,800 OK Key
Product Thermal (Hot in C) = 80 OK User input
Product Thermal (Cold in C) = -35 OK Calculated
Product Vibration (in Grms) = 17 OK Selection
Prod Published Spec Level (see below) = 3 OK Data Validity
Vibration Table Technology = 2 OK
Number of HALT Samples = 4 OK
HASS or HASA (yes = 1, no = 0) = 0 OK
If HASS or HASA, Daily Sample Size = 1 OK
If HASS or HASA, Detectable Shift in AFR (in %) = 0 OK
Steady State AFR, % (HALT Only) = 3.40
Steady State Field MTBF, Hrs (HALT Only) = 257,513
Lower 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 138,826
Upper 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 529,297
Days to Detect Shift w/ HALT/HASS/HASA (Max) =
Published Spec Level # Guard Band Limits
0 to +40 1 Consumer -30 to +80
0 to +50 2 Hi-end Consumer -30 to +100
-10 to +50 3 Hi Performance -40 to +110
-20 to +50 4 Critical Application -50 to +110
-25 to +65 5 Sheltered -50 to +110
-40 to +85 6 All Outdoor -65 to +110
Example of Office Product
Actual Field AFR = 0.8%
Field Failure Rate Estimate - % of Failures/Year
Input Matrix Data Verifiy
MTBF (in Hrs) = 3,199,090 OK Key
Product Thermal (Hot in C) = 80 OK User input
Product Thermal (Cold in C) = -50 OK Calculated
Product Vibration (in Grms) = 20 OK Selection
Prod Published Spec Level (see below) = 1 OK Data Validity
Vibration Table Technology = 2 OK
Number of HALT Samples = 4 OK
HASS or HASA (yes = 1, no = 0) = 0 OK
If HASS or HASA, Daily Sample Size = 1 OK
If HASS or HASA, Detectable Shift in AFR (in %) = 0 OK
Steady State AFR, % (HALT Only) = 1.35
Steady State Field MTBF, Hrs (HALT Only) = 648,169
Lower 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 349,429
Upper 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 1,332,260
Days to Detect Shift w/ HALT/HASS/HASA (Max) =
Published Spec Level # Guard Band Limits
0 to +40 1 Consumer -30 to +80
0 to +50 2 Hi-end Consumer -30 to +100
-10 to +50 3 Hi Performance -40 to +110
-20 to +50 4 Critical Application -50 to +110
-25 to +65 5 Sheltered -50 to +110
-40 to +85 6 All Outdoor -65 to +110
Two Estimator Examples
High Power Charger Vehicle Power Inverter
Publ i shed Spec Level # Guard Band Li mi ts
0 to +40 1 Consumer -30 to +80
0 to +50 2 Hi-end Consumer -30 to +100
-10 to +50 3 Hi Performance -40 to +110
-20 to +50 4 Critical Application -50 to +110
-25 to +65 5 Sheltered -50 to +110
-40 to +85 6 All Outdoor -65 to +110
Field Fail ure Rate Estimate - % of Failures/Year
Input Matrix Data Veri fiy
MTBF (in Hrs) = 616,200 OK Key
Product Thermal (Hot in C) = 110 OK User input
Product Thermal (Cold in C) = -42 OK Calculated
Product Vibration (in Grms) = 19 OK Selection
Prod Publi shed Spec Level (see below) = 3 OK Data Validity
Vibration Table Technology = 3 OK
Number of HALT Samples = 4 OK
HASS or HASA (yes = 1, no = 0) = 0 OK
If HASS or HASA, Daily Sample Size = 1 OK
If HASS or HASA, Detectable Shift in AFR (in %) = 0 OK
Steady State AFR, % (HALT Only) = 1.28
Steady State Field MTBF, Hrs (HALT Only) = 685,588
Lower 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 369,602
Upper 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 1,409,173
Days to Detect Shift w/ HALT/HASS/HASA (Max) =
Field Failure Rate Estimate - % of Failures/Year
Input Matrix Data Verifiy
MTBF (in Hrs) = 342,100 OK Key
Product Thermal (Hot in C) = 100 OK User input
Product Thermal (Cold in C) = -30 OK Calculated
Product Vibration (in Grms) = 31 OK Selection
Prod Published Spec Level (see below) = 2 OK Data Validity
Vibration Table Technology = 2 OK
Number of HALT Samples = 4 OK
HASS or HASA (yes = 1, no = 0) = 0 OK
If HASS or HASA, Daily Sample Size = 1 OK
If HASS or HASA, Detectable Shift in AFR (in %) = 0 OK
Steady State AFR, % (HALT Only) = 1.07
Steady State Field MTBF, Hrs (HALT Only) = 819,629
Lower 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 441,864
Upper 90% HALT Confidence Limit = 1,684,684
Days to Detect Shift w/ HALT/HASS/HASA (Max) =
Validation Table
Cal cul ated HALT Resul ts Tabl e AFR, % Return
Products: MTBF AFR, % Hot Col d Vi b Level Tech HALT Cal c Fi el d Act Rate, %
Display 415,000 2.1 130 -80 28 4 2 0.27 0.21
Outdoor 175,800 5.0 100 -60 28 6 3 1.26 0.75 8.30
Vehicle 143,600 6.1 102 -67 20 6 2 1.35 1.05 2.80
Vehicle 342,100 2.6 100 -30 31 2 2 1.07 0.70 5.60
Outdoor 275,000 3.2 110 -60 17 6 3 1.40 0.30 3.70
Vehicle 157,100 5.6 90 -60 21 2 2 1.17 0.90 10.10
Vehicle 192,500 4.6 90 -60 21 5 2 1.15 1.00 9.80
Vehicle 106,800 8.2 100 -50 13 2 2 2.27 2.20 14.06
Hi Perf 616,200 1.4 110 -42 19 3 3 1.28 1.00
Vehicle 56,800 15.4 80 -35 17 3 2 3.40 3.75
Vehicle 109,800 8.0 105 -35 14 6 2 3.25 4.40 8.40
Office 3,199,090 0.3 80 -50 20 1 2 1.35 0.8 1.4
Telecom (Out) 200,000 4.4 100 -80 28 6 1 0.83 0.5
Telecom 200,000 4.4 83 -82 31 4 1 0.88 0.5
Telecom 200,000 4.4 85 -60 50 4 1 1.21 0.5
Telecom 200,000 4.4 121 -54 21 4 1 1.06 0.5
Telecom 200,000 4.4 102 -72 25 4 1 0.82 0.5
Consumer 70,000 12.5 100 -30 10 1 2 5.31 3.00
Consumer 70,000 12.5 100 -30 16 1 2 3.13 3.00
Consumer 70,000 12.5 90 -30 19 1 2 2.82 2.92
Avionics 17,000 51.6 120 -70 48 4 3 1.18 1.36 1.89
Avionics 32,000 27.4 125 -100 48 4 3 0.39 0.78 1.61
Avionics 14,000 62.6 120 -60 50 4 3 1.87 1.55 2.12
Avionics 18,900 46.4 120 -80 62 4 3 0.89 1.78 2.49
Avionics 20,600 42.6 120 -90 65 4 3 0.57 1.16 2.43
Avionics 14,600 60.0 120 -90 55 4 3 0.81 0.16 0.61
Avionics 71,000 12.3 120 -65 40 4 3 0.86 0.51 1.08
Avionics 11,000 79.7 125 -70 25 4 3 1.34 0.36 2.08
Validation Table Clarification
Products Generic product type.
Calculated MTBF Estimated by Telcordia SR-332, Issue 1,
Parts Stress Method or equivalent tool.
Calculated AFR Actual field Failure Rate from MTBF.
HALT Results Product limitations from HALT.
Level Lookup value of the products published specs.
HALT Calc AFR% Calculated AFR from formula.
Field Actual AFR% Actual field AFR after HALT.
Return Rate, % Product return rate with failed units.
Observations on Validation Table
Outdoor w/275K MTBF HALT vibration is low.
Vehicle w/109.8K MTBF The HALT results are
low.
Consumer Lets see why the large variation
Comparison of Field Results
to Estimate
Guard Band=20Grms
1
st
HALT Vibration was
10Grms, last HALT
reached 19Grms, AFR was
2.82 and Delta -0.10.
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
%DeltaAFRBetweenModel&Field
Details of Large Variance
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
%DeltaAFRBetweenModel&Field
Parameter HALT Guard Band AFR HALT Resul t AFR
Thermal -30C to +100C ----- -30C to +100C -----
Vibration 19Grms ----- 10Grms
Sample Size 4 1.81 3 5.31
Delta 3.50
Work Remaining
More data from others (would like 12 more):
HALT results (final values after corrective actions).
Sample Size
Calculated (estimated) MTBF, if available.
Actual field Failure Rate (AFR).
Field return rate.
Type of product, i.e., internet server, etc.
Published thermal and vibration specs.
If HASS is being done.
Confidence limits. Completed!
Include effects of HASS. Completed!
Prepare for posting to website. Completed!
Patent submittal and grant. Progressing.
Conclusions
The methodology works very well.
Would like more data would you like to help?