Alabama Statewide Flash Poll

Conducted Monday, July 7 & Tuesday, July 8

N = 314,492 / n = 821
MoE = +/- 3.42% at 95% Confidence Interval
CLIENT: None; For Media Release
Republican Primary Runoff Election July 15, 2014
PRIMARY RESULTS
Head-to-Head (Governor)
05/30 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results
MoE +/- 2.81 %

Bentley 80.7%
George 5.1%
Starkey 5.3%
Undecided 8.9%


Bentley 89.3%
George 5.8%
Starkey 4.9%
Difference


Bentley 8.6%
George 0.7%
Starkey -0.4%
NOTE: This race was not much of a surprise, but it was impressive to be able to
tag challengers George and Starkey within one point. As is usually seen in races,
especially blowout ones, the undecideds break toward the most well-known, well-
liked candidate. This occurred in the governors race.

We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Head-to-Head (Lt. Governor)
05/30 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results
MoE +/- 2.81 %

Ivey 53.5%
Cooke 29.8%
Undecided 16.9%
* Margin 23.5%


Ivey 61.7%
Cooke 38.3%

* Margin 23.4%
Difference


Ivey 8.4%
Cooke 8.5%

* Margin -0.1%
NOTE: It was interesting to see undecided voters spilt evenly between Ivey and
Cooke. We polled this race at a 23.5% margin and were only 0.1% off of the final
results.

We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333.

* MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Head-to-Head (Secretary of State)
05/30 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results
MoE +/- 2.81 %

McKinney 20.6%
Merrill 19.3%
Perdue 17.1%
Undecided 43.0%
* Margin 1.3%


McKinney 38.1%
Merrill 39.9%
Perdue 22.0%

* Margin 1.7%
Difference


McKinney 17.5%
Merrill 20.6%
Perdue 4.9%

* Margin -3.0%
NOTE: Undecided voters have to go somewhere, which explains the difference
between the poll numbers and the 06/03 results. Whats important to note is the
accuracy of the projected margin, especially in a race with high undecided voters
several days out.

We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333.

* MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Head-to-Head (PSC Place 2)
05/30 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results
MoE +/- 2.81 %

Beeker 22.7%
Dunn 13.4%
Barbee 11.6%
Brown 7.2%
Undecided 45.2%
* Margin 9.3%


Beeker 39.0%
Dunn 32.5%
Barbee 15.9%
Brown 12.6%

* Margin 6.5%
Difference


Beeker 16.3%
Dunn 19.1%
Barbee 4.3%
Brown 5.4%

* Margin -2.8%
NOTE: As with the Secretary of State race, this also had very high undecideds
just days out from the election. Our polled margin between Beeker and Dunn
ended up being within the margin of error of the final results.

We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333.

* MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.
PRIMARY RESULTS
Head-to-Head (Auditor)
05/30 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results
MoE +/- 2.81 %

Zeigler 23.7%
Peterson 16.5%
Thompson 9.8%
Sealy 5.3%
Undecided 44.7%
* Margin 7.2%


Zeigler 47.1%
Peterson 24.3%
Thompson 18.6%
Sealy 10.0%

* Margin 22.8%
Difference


Zeigler 23.4%
Peterson 7.8%
Thompson 8.8%
Sealy 4.7%

* Margin 15.6%
NOTE: Out of all the races polled on 05/30, this one was the furthest off.
However, we did get the candidate order correct. Zeiglers residual name ID along
with Petersons negatives and the lack of familiarity of the other two candidates
led a huge number of undecided voters to vote for Zeigler.

We projected turnout at 414,102 and it ended up being 433,333.

* MARGIN = the spread between the top two candidates.
RUNOFF POLLING
Secretary of State
McKinney,
23.0%
Merrill,
24.2%
Undec,
52.8%
MARGIN DIFFERENCE: 1.4%

RUNOFF POLLING
SoS Crosstabs
McKinney Merrill Undec
% of AL
BHM 18.6 30.7 50.7
35.9
HSV 16.5 23.1 60.4
23.5
MGM 54.1 19.0 26.8
14.2
MOB 15.6 16.2 68.2
13.9
OTHER 20.5 22.1 57.3
12.5
Media Markets
McKinney Merrill Undec
% of AL
18-34 39.1 17.7 43.1
3.2
35-49 22.1 25.6 52.2
14.1
50-64 23.4 22.0 52.2
33.3
65+ 21.9 25.6 52.5
49.4
Age Ranges
*
* Based on historical trends, the lower the
turnout, the older the participant base.

McKinney Merrill Undec
% of AL
Highest 25.3 24.7 49.9
35.9
High 24.1 24.9 50.9
23.5
Medium 19.9 23.3 56.9
14.2
Lowest 11.0 19.3 69.7
13.9
Primary Voting Propensity
RUNOFF POLLING
PSC Place 2
Beeker,
30.8%
Dunn, 22.4%
Undec,
46.8%
MARGIN DIFFERENCE: 8.4%

RUNOFF POLLING
PSC#2 Crosstabs
Beeker Dunn Undec
% of AL
BHM 41.1 21.1 37.8
35.9
HSV 27.3 22.8 49.9
23.5
MGM 25.6 33.0 41.4
14.2
MOB 19.9 14.7 65.3
13.9
OTHER 25.9 21.8 52.3
12.5
Media Markets
Beeker Dunn Undec
% of AL
18-34 22.8 32.3 44.9
3.2
35-49 28.1 21.4 50.4
14.1
50-64 29.9 24.9 45.2
33.3
65+ 32.7 20.4 46.9
49.4
Age Ranges
*
* Based on historical trends, the lower the
turnout, the older the participant base.

Beeker Dunn Undec
% of AL
Highest 33.1 20.4 46.5
35.9
High 32.3 24.4 43.3
23.5
Medium 26.0 22.9 51.0
14.2
Lowest 23.4 23.4 53.2
13.9
Primary Voting Propensity
RUNOFF POLLING
Auditor
Zeigler,
30.5%
Peterson,
21.5%
Undec,
48.0%
MARGIN DIFFERENCE: 9.0%

RUNOFF POLLING
Auditor Crosstabs
Zeigler Peterson Undec
% of AL
BHM 35.6 22.7 41.7
35.9
HSV 25.3 19.1 55.6
23.5
MGM 33.6 21.9 44.5
14.2
MOB 26.1 16.2 57.7
13.9
OTHER 27.5 27.7 44.8
12.5
Media Markets
Zeigler Peterson Undec
% of AL
18-34 21.9 34.3 43.8
3.2
35-49 27.2 22.3 50.5
14.1
50-64 26.5 26.5 47.0
33.3
65+ 34.8 17.1 48.2
49.4
Age Ranges
*
* Based on historical trends, the lower the
turnout, the older the participant base.

Zeigler Peterson Undec
% of AL
Highest 34.3 19.2 46.5
35.9
High 30.7 22.1 47.2
23.5
Medium 24.2 23.5 52.3
14.2
Lowest 25.5 27.0 47.5
13.9
Primary Voting Propensity
RUNOFF POLLING
2016 Presidential Primary
J. Bush,
19.8%
Carson,
12.6%
Christie,
8.8%
Cruz, 5.6%
Jindal, 3.9%
Paul, 10.5%
Perry, 7.2%
Santorum,
5.3%
Walker, 3.6%
Undec,
22.6%
16.3%
40.1%
31.5%
12.1%
All
Most
Some
None
AGREEMENT WITH
Tea Party Views
Demographic Info
Political Ideology
Very Conservative 42.8%
Somewhat Conservative 30.5%
Independent 21.7%
Somewhat Liberal 3.5%
Very Liberal 1.6%
Age Range
18 to 34 3.1%
35 to 49 14.1%
50 to 64 33.2%
65+ 49.5%
Gender
Male 48.7%
Female 51.3%
Media Markets
BHM 32.9%
HSV 23.5%
MGM 14.2%
MOB 13.9%
OTHER 12.5%
Primary
Propensity Zones
Highest 41.7%
High 31.7%
Medium 20.5%
Low 6.0%
For questions or comments related to this flash poll, please contact:
Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner
brent@cygn.al
Cory Brown, Data Strategist
cory@cygn.al
www.cygn.al