Guesstimates:

Q1. Estimate the number of hours air conditioners are run in Delhi over a
year.
Total population of New Delhi ~= 1.8 crore.
Neglecting BPL : 30% of 1.8 cr. Therefore, we are left with 1.26 cr.
Now let us assume that the spending power of the city is restricted between 25-60 years of
age.
The percentage of population lying in this segment is: 40% i.e. 0.4*1.26~50 lacs.
Now, we also make an assumption that the male: female ratio is 1:1. Therefore the male
population= 25 lacs.
We will further categorise them income group wise:
Category Low income Middle income High Income Very High Income
Percentage 30% 50% 15% 5%
Population
(lacs)
7.5 12.5 3.75 1.25

The low income group may not afford ACs and is dependent upon coolers/fans.
The middle income group will have 1-2 AC per household.
The High Income group will have 3-4 ACs per household.
The very High Income group will have 7-8 ACs per household.
Total no. of ACs in the households = 1.5*12.5+3.5*3.75+7.5*1.25= 41.25 lacs AC units.
Considering an average of 10 hours that ACs are run in Households, total no. of hours in the
household= 41.25*365=15056.25 million hours.
Now, teens within age group 18-25 living independently,
For males= 20%*12 million = 2.4 million
For females= 20%*12 million= 2.4 million
And assuming on an average, 2 persons share a room = 1.2+1.2= 2.4 million
Considering 50% have AC in their rooms= 1.2 million AC and hours they run their ACs for =
6 hours on an average
Therefore total hours= 1.2*180*6 = 1296 million hours

Now, there are shops, malls, factories and industries where bulbs are used.
Considering the fact, only 10% of the population is involved in shops and retails = 1.8
million
Considering on an average 3-4 people are involved in one shop or retail = 0.5 million
Average AC = 2, therefore total ACs= 1.0 million
Hours they operate in a day= 8 hours
Total hours = 1.0*2*8*180 = 2765 million hours

Malls are quite large in number in New Delhi,
Considering at least 10 malls in each district, so total malls = 110 malls
And each mall has centrally air conditioned system which runs for nearly 12 hours a day
So total number of hours = 12*110*180 = 237600 hours
Industries use ACs in large quantity.
Considering around 5 industries in each district, total industries = 55
Number of ACs in each industries = 50 (considering small scale industries)
Total number of ACs used by an industry ~= 3000 ACs
So total number of AC hours = 3000*180*15 = 8100000 hours
Considering Airports,
Total number of working ac hours = 24 hours in a day
Hours for which centrally air conditioned system operates = 180*24= 4320 hours
Considering Metro,
Total number of working hours- 16 hours
Centrally air conditioned
So total number of working hours = 16*180 = 2880 hours
At Bus stand and railway stations,
No of AC are comparatively low in number, assuming total number of ACs= 50
Hours for which they remain on = 20 hours
Total number of hours = 20*50*180 = 180000 hours
So total number of hours for which AC are on = 15056.25 million hours + 1296 million hours
+ 2765 million hours +237600 hours + 4320 + 2880 + 180000 hours= 19117424800 hours.


Q2. Estimate the number of males who get a haircut in Delhi in 1 day?

Total number of districts in Delhi - 11 districts and at the rate of 20 barber shops per district
we will get 220 barber shops in Delhi.
Assuming average working hours of a Barber shop (7 AM to 9 PM with 1 hour gap)= 13
hours.
At any time in a shop there are on an average 3 chairs. Also, lets assume an average of
waiting customer to be 3.
Average waiting time= 15 mins (precisely the time a customer getting a haircut takes on
average).
Now, 2 of every 3 customers want a haircut.
During peak time, i.e morning 7-10 AM and Evening 6 to 9 PM (i.e. 5 hours) we will have 12
customers per hour in the shop of which 2/3 will get a haircut. Therefore, 8/ hour for 5 hours
of peak time i.e. 40 haircuts.
During the lean period, i.e. 10AM to 6 PM (7 hours, since an hour of lunch excluded) the no
of customers at any time is <4. Therefore, Assuming 6 customers per hour of which 4 get a
haircut. Therefore, total no. of haircuts= 7*4=28.
Total 68 customers per day per barber shop.
Total no. of shops= 220.
Therefore total no. of haircuts= 220*68=14960.

Q3. Estimate the market for Pepsi in India.
Total population of India = 1.3 billion
Now considering 30% of population is below poverty line, so only 70% would be consuming
soft drinks = 70% of 1.3 billion = 0.9 billion
Considering the market is full of competitors, about 30% would be consuming pepsi
depending upon the brand value= 0.3*0.9 billion ~= 0.27 billion
Now considering the income groups 30% would be low income groups, 50% would be
middle income and 20% would be high income groups.

So low income groups = 0.3*0.27 billion = 0.08 billion
Middle income group = 0.5*0.27 billion= 0.14 billion
High income groups = 0.2*0.27 billion= 0.054 billion
Now low income group would be spending on an average around 30 Rs on Pepsi in a week,
therefore market size = 0.08 * 30* 365 = 576 billion/7=83 billion

Middle income group would be spending on an average around 50+30 Rs on Pepsi in a week,
therefore market size= 0.14*80*365 = 584 biilion

High income group would be spending on an average around 130 Rs on Pepsi in a week,
therefore market size= 0.054 * 130* 365/7= 366 billion
Therefore total market size for Pepsi is = 83+584+366=INR 1033 billion i.e. $17.21 billion.