Joint Vienna Institute August 5 - 16, 2013 L-1: Scope and Role of QNA Reproductions of this material or any parts of it should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source Lecture Outline What is QNA? What is QNA? Scope of QNA Role and uses of QNA Time-series oriented data Timeliness vs. Reliability f The Need for Revisions IMF Statistics Department JVI/QNA/L1 : 2 2 What is Quarterly National Accounts? System of integrated quarterly time series System of integrated quarterly time series coordinated through a consistent accounting framework (SNA) In principle cover the entire sequence of accounts and balance sheets in the 1993 SNA Adopt the same principles, definitions and structure as th l ti l t (ANA) the annual national accounts (ANA) Usually less complete than ANA because of data availability, time, and resource constraints Provided on a timely basis (SDDS requirement: 3-month) JVI/QNA/L1 : 3 IMF Statistics Department Scope of QNA Basic compilation Basic compilation At current prices and in volume terms: GDP by the production approach GDP by the expenditure approach At current prices: GDP by the income approach GDP by the income approach Gross National Income (GNI) Gross Saving JVI/QNA/L1 : 4 IMF Statistics Department 3 Scope of QNA Advanced compilation Advanced compilation Seasonally adjusted GDP, in addition to the original data very valuable for users Full sequence of quarterly accounts by institutional sector Balance sheets JVI/QNA/L1 : 5 IMF Statistics Department Role of QNA Provide a picture of the current economic Provide a picture of the current economic development that is More timely than ANA, More comprehensive than short-term statistics To meet this purpose, QNA should be Timely e y Accurate/Reliable Comprehensive Consistent Detailed JVI/QNA/L1 : 6 IMF Statistics Department 4 Role of Quarterly National Accounts Monitoring Business Cycles - Quarterly versus Annual Data Annual data mask short term economic developments 5800 6000 6200 6400 6600 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 5200 5400 5600 1300 1350 1400 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 quarterly GDP (left hand scale) annual GDP (right hand scale) JVI/QNA/L1 : 7 IMF Statistics Department Uses of QNA QNA are used for: QNA are used for: Early identification of changes in trends Timely implementation of economic policies Macro-economic forecasts, including early estimates of annual accounts Framework for business cycle analysis Econometric modeling, including studies of seasonal patterns Price and volume decomposition of nominal growth JVI/QNA/L1 : 8 IMF Statistics Department 5 Time-series oriented data Definition: a set of measurements on a given Definition: a set of measurements on a given phenomenon over consecutive, equally spaced periods of time, which facilitates: identification of underlying trend and turning points allows different periods to be compared (growth rates) Requirements q Consistency over time of concepts and measurement Ordered observations dependent through time JVI/QNA/L1 : 9 IMF Statistics Department Time-series oriented data Discrete periods such as months and quarters Discrete periods such as months and quarters January, February, March, ; Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 Cumulative data do not constitute time series January, JanuaryFebruary, JanuaryMarch e.g. they do not allow Aprils performance to be compared with Januarys Should cover a sufficient number of years minimum 5 years for time series procedures (e.g. seasonal adjustment) JVI/QNA/L1 : 10 IMF Statistics Department 6 Time-series oriented data Should facilitate analysis of the development over Should facilitate analysis of the development over time in a flexible manner The change from the same period in the previous year (with s number of seasons in a year): 1 100 t t s I I | |
| \ . The change from the previous period (period-to-period growth rate): 1 1 100 t t I I | |
| \ . JVI/QNA/L1 : 11 IMF Statistics Department Time-series oriented data Decomposition of time series Decomposition of time series TC t long-term trend and cyclical movements S t seasonal effects t t t t Y TC S I = + + t I t irregular component Most QNA users are interested in seasonally adjusted series, i.e. series from which the seasonal component has been appropriately removed JVI/QNA/L1 : 12 IMF Statistics Department 7 Seasonality in QNA Identification of Turning Points Identification of Turning Points Unadjusted QNA series 106.0 110.0 114.0 94.0 98.0 102.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 JVI/QNA/L1 : 13 IMF Statistics Department Seasonality in QNA Identification of Turning Points Identification of Turning Points Seasonally adjusted QNA series 106.0 110.0 114.0 94.0 98.0 102.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 JVI/QNA/L1 : 14 IMF Statistics Department 8 Seasonality in QNA Identification of Turning Points Identification of Turning Points Seasonally adjusted series 106.0 110.0 114.0 94.0 98.0 102.0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 JVI/QNA/L1 : 15 IMF Statistics Department Timeliness vs Reliability: the Need for Revisions Data collection takes time Data collection takes time Data compilation takes time Collection of comprehensive and reliable data is costly Trade-off between timeliness, comprehensiveness and reliability and reliability JVI/QNA/L1 : 16 IMF Statistics Department 9 Timeliness vs Reliability: the Need for Revisions A well-balanced solution A well balanced solution Annual accounts Preliminary version (after few months) Revised and final versions (after several years) More accurate, detailed and comprehensive .. but not timely Quarterly accounts More timely but less accurate detailed and comprehensive More timely but less accurate, detailed and comprehensive Flash estimates Coordinated revision of annual and quarterly estimates Clear and transparent revision policy required (GDDS/SDDS requirement) JVI/QNA/L1 : 17 IMF Statistics Department