For release: Wednesday, August 6, 2014 6:30 PM EDT
Foreign Policy Concerns, the President, and the Midterm Elections July 29-August 4, 2014
In the ongoing disputes between Israel and the Palestinians, most Americans sympathize with Israel (54%), though many (47%) blame both sides for the recent outbreak of violence between Israel and Hamas.
56% of Americans now view Russia as either an enemy (22%) or unfriendly (34%) to the U.S. Few Americans think new sanctions against Russia will be very effective in curbing that countrys actions in Ukraine.
President Obamas approval rating on foreign policy remains low (36%) and few approve of his handling of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians (33%) or relations with Russia (38%). His overall job approval is 41% - nearly the same as last month.
50% of Americans think the President has strong qualities of leadership, though 47% think he does not.
54% of Americans disapprove of the lawsuit filed against the President by House Republicans, although views are split along partisan lines.
Israel and Hamas
After four weeks of fighting in the Gaza Strip, most Americans side with Israel in their ongoing disputes with the Palestinians. 54% of Americans say they sympathize more with Israel, while just 16% sympathize more with the Palestinians.
Israel and the Palestinians: Who Do You Sympathize With More? Now 8/2002 Israel 54% 47% Palestinians 16 12 Both/Neither (vol.) 17 20
But Americans dont necessarily think the U.S. should get involved. 59% of Americans think the U.S. does not have a responsibility to try to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. A decade ago, Americans were more divided when it came to the U.S.s responsibility in this matter.
Does the U.S. Have a Responsibility for Solving the Israel-Palestinian Conflict? Total 8/2002 Yes 35% 47% No 59 46
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As for the most recent outbreak of violence, more Americans blame Hamas than Israel for the recent fighting that has erupted. 34% think Hamas is most to blame, while just 6% lay most of the blame on Israel. However, even more 47% - think both sides are equally to blame.
Most Republicans (54%) lay the blame on Hamas, while Democrats and independents are more likely to blame both sides equally.
Who is Most to Blame for the Fighting Between Israel and Hamas? Total Reps Dems Inds Hamas 34% 54% 24% 32% Israel 6 2 10 6 Both equally 47 35 55 48
The Conflict between Russia and Ukraine
Meanwhile, the U.S. has taken diplomatic action against Russia in the wake of the downing of a Malaysian Airlines passenger plane last month by Russian separatists in Ukraine. The U.S. has joined the European Union in enacting further economic sanctions against Russia, though most Americans are skeptical that these sanctions will have much effect. Just 7% think these sanctions will be very effective in changing Russias actions in Ukraine, while 31% think they will be somewhat effective. Most think sanctions will be either not very (31%) or not at all (23%) effective.
Sanctions Against Russia Will Be Total Reps Dems Inds Very effective 7% 6% 10% 6% Somewhat effective 31 26 46 25 Not very effective 31 36 24 33 Not at all effective 23 26 13 26
Americans continue to view Russia cautiously. Today, 36% of Americans think of Russia as either an ally or friendly to the U.S. -- down from 42% in March. 56% now see Russia as either unfriendly or an enemy. As recently as 2007, 68% viewed Russia as either friendly (58%) or as an ally (10%).
Do You Consider Russia? Now 3/2014 6/2007 2/2003 An ally 7% 7% 10% 20% Friendly, but not an ally 29 35 58 60
Total Friendly 36% 42% 68% 80%
Unfriendly, not enemy 34 33 18 8 An enemy 22 18 6 4
Total Not Friendly 56 51 24 12
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Assessing the Presidents Job Performance
Americans are critical of how President Obama has been responding to these two military conflicts. The President receives net negative ratings for his handling of both Russia and the fighting in Gaza, as well as his handling of foreign policy overall.
President Obamas Ratings on Foreign Policy Approve Disapprove Overall foreign policy 36% 48
Relations with Russia 38% 44 Situation between Israel and Palestinians 33% 50
The Presidents approval ratings on other key issues remain more negative than positive. 40% of Americans approve and 54% disapprove of how Mr. Obama is handling the economy, only slightly better than the 36% who approve of his handling of foreign policy. Just 31% of Americans approve of how President Obama is handling immigration an all-time low for his presidency.
President Obamas Job Ratings on the Issues ------------- Now -------------- ----------- June --------------- Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Economy 40% 54 41% 54 Foreign policy 36% 48 36% 58 Immigration 31% 57 35% 56
Overall, President Obama continues to hold a negative job approval rating. 41% of Americans approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as President while 50% disapprove, numbers that have changed little since earlier in the year.
Americans are divided as to whether or not President Obama is a strong leader: 50% think he has strong qualities of leadership, while 47% think he does not. Positive assessment of the President on this measure has declined gradually over the course of his presidency.
Does Barack Obama Have Strong Qualities of Leadership? Now 3/2014 9/2013 9/2011 6/2010 8/2009 Yes 50% 53% 58% 57% 62% 73% No 47 45 39 39 35 25
More specifically, though 52% have at least some confidence in President Obamas ability to handle an international crisis, just 25% say they have a lot of confidence down 14 percentage points from last September, but similar to views in March.
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Confidence in Obamas Handling of an International Crisis Now 3/2014 9/2012 A lot 25% 28% 39% Some 27 25 26 A little 20 18 13 None 27 27 21
Most Americans also dont think the President shares their priorities: 38% think he does, while 56% think he does not. These percentages have changed little since December.
Does Barack Obama Share Your Priorities for the Country? Now 12/2013 1/2012 1/2011 7/2010 7/2009 Yes 38% 38% 44% 42% 48% 62% No 56 58 50 52 48 31
Despite their reservations about the President, more Americans disapprove (54%) than approve (37%) of the lawsuit against President Obama authorized by Republicans in the House of Representatives, which charges that the President exceeded his authority when he delayed a provision of the 2010 health care law.
Not surprisingly, there are partisan differences. Two in three Republicans approve of the lawsuit, while four in five Democrats disapprove. Just over half of independents disapprove.
House Lawsuit Against Obama All Reps Dems Inds Approve 37% 66% 15% 36% Disapprove 54 24 80 53 Dont know 9 10 5 12
Views of the Parties
Americans views of both political parties are negative and nearly match historic lows for this poll. Just 29% of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, down four points from May and just one point above the lowest favorability rating for that party recorded in this poll (in June, 2009). While more - 41% - have a positive impression of the Democratic Party, this percentage is also just one point above the all-time low for the Democratic Party, reached in November 1994.
Views of the Political Parties ------- Republican Party ------ ------- Democratic Party ------ Now 5/2014 6/2009 Now 5/2014 9/1994 Favorable 29% 33% 28% 41% 43% 40% Not favorable 62 58 58 50 50 52
National security is a particular strength for the Republican Party; 46% of Americans say the Republican Party will do a better job on that issue, compared to just 33% who choose the Democrats. Democrats lead as the party that better shares Americans values, and they have a slight edge on immigration. Americans are divided as to which party would do a better job handling the economy.
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Issues: Which Party Will Do a Better Job On? Republican Democratic National security 46% 33 The economy 41% 42 Immigration 38% 41 Sharing your values 38% 45
The Midterm Elections
If the election were held today, the results would look much as they did in June, with Democrats holding a slight edge. But among those who are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, Republicans have a lead.
Generic Ballot: 2014 Congressional Vote (Among registered voters) More enthusiastic Now 6/2014 about voting Republican 37% 39% 47% Democrat 41 42 40 Depends/Not sure 17 16 12
And just over a third of voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in November.
Enthusiasm about Voting in November (Among registered voters) Total Reps Dems Inds More 36% 43% 42% 28% Less 49 43 49 53 The same 12 14 8 14
This years election campaigns have yet to capture the attention of many voters. Just a quarter of voters are currently paying a lot of attention to the campaign.
Attention to the Campaign (Among registered voters) A lot 25% Some 39 Not much 21 None 14
Congress
While Americans are critical of the President, their view of Congress remains even more dismal: just 15% approve of the job they are doing, while 78% disapprove. Large majorities of Republicans (71%), Democrats (82%), and independents (80%) disapprove of how Congress is handling its job.
Job Rating of Congress Now 6/2014 5/2014 1/2014 10/2013 Approve 15% 14% 12% 11% 9% Disapprove 78 78 80 82 85 6
The Direction of the Country
Meanwhile, overall impressions of where the country is headed have grown more negative. Just 25% think the country is headed in the right direction; down five points from May and the
lowest rating since October 2013. 67% think the country is off on the wrong track, including most Republicans (89%) and independents (68%), and a plurality of Democrats (47%).
Direction of the Country Now 5/2014 2/2014 1/2014 10/2013 Right direction 25% 30% 32% 33% 23% Wrong track 67 62 63 61 72
The Economy
The national economy remains the most important issue to Americans: 58% of Americans rate the economy as at least somewhat bad, while just 40% rate it as good.
Condition of the National Economy Now 5/2014 3/2014 1/2014 Good 40% 43% 37% 37% Bad 58 55 61 61
26% think the economy is getting better, though 30% think it is getting worse, and 43% think it is staying the same.
Direction of the National Economy Now 5/2014 3/2014 1/2014 Getting better 26% 30% 26% 31% Getting worse 30 26 30 25 Staying the same 43 42 44 43 _____________________________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone from July 29 - August 4, 2014 among 1,344 adults nationwide. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
Additional interviews were conducted with Hispanics (for use in future analysis), to yield a sample size of 426. The Hispanic oversample consisted of callbacks to Hispanic respondents who had previously completed a survey as part of a random sample, and interviews with respondents whose telephone numbers were likely to fall in high-incidence Hispanic areas on landline exchanges and cell phone rate centers.
The weighting of the Hispanic sample consisted of non-response corrections for the callback numbers (to account for systematic differences between those completing and those not completing the callback interview), and a weighting adjustment to ensure that Hispanics in high-incidence areas were not overrepresented in the data.
The Hispanic and non-Hispanic samples were weighted separately to match their groups population characteristics such as gender, age, education, region, marital status and phone use based on recent U.S. Census estimates. The samples were then combined in proportion to their size in the population, and weighted to standard parameters of the total U.S. adult population.
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The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. The margin of error for the sample of Hispanics is 6 pts and 4 pts for Non-Hispanics. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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CBS News National Poll Foreign Policy Concerns, the President, and the Midterm Elections July 29 August 4, 2014
Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
TOTAL RESPONDENTS Total Rep Dem Ind Jun14d % % % % % Approve 41 8 74 36 40 Disapprove 50 86 20 50 54 Don't know/No answer 10 6 6 14 6
Q2. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy?
TOTAL RESPONDENTS Total Rep Dem Ind Jun14d % % % % % Approve 36 8 65 32 36 Disapprove 48 76 24 50 58 Don't know/No answer 16 16 11 18 6 Q5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Q10. How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
TOTAL RESPONDENTS Total Rep Dem Ind May14c % % % % % Very good 3 2 5 2 4 Fairly good 37 26 56 32 39 Fairly bad 34 44 22 37 36 Very bad 24 26 15 28 19 Don't know/No answer 2 1 2 2 2
Q11. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Q20. How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama's ability to handle an international crisis--a lot, some, a little, or none at all?
TOTAL RESPONDENTS Total Rep Dem Ind Mar14c % % % % % A lot 25 5 50 20 28 Some 27 18 30 30 25 A little 20 24 13 21 18 Not at all 27 51 7 27 27 Don't know/No answer 2 2 * 2 1
Q20a. Republicans in the House of Representatives have authorized a lawsuit against Barack Obama on the grounds that he exceeded his authority when he delayed a provision of the 2010 health care law. Do you approve or disapprove of this lawsuit?*
Q21. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2014 election campaign a lot, some, not much or no attention so far?
** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Total Rep Dem Ind Jun14d A lot 25 24 30 22 28 Some 39 44 37 37 37 Not much 21 20 20 23 23 No attention 14 11 13 16 12 Don't know/No answer 1 1 * 2 *
Q22. HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
Q23. If the 2014 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?
Q24. Compared to previous Congressional elections, this year are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? REGISTERED VOTERS Total Rep Dem Ind Jun14d % % % % % More enthusiastic 36 43 42 28 38 Less enthusiastic 49 43 49 53 45 Same (vol.) 12 14 8 14 14 Don't know/No answer 3 1 1 5 2
Q25-26. BLANK
Q27. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to do a better job handling immigration issues?
Q29. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to do a better job handling national security?
Apr06a* Republican Party 46 86 18 43 42 Democratic Party 33 6 66 26 35 Both (vol.) 3 1 4 2 6 Neither (vol.) 8 3 3 13 6 Don't know/No answer 11 5 9 15 11 * Wording change: would do a better job handling a national security crisis?
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Q30. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party comes closer to sharing your values?
TOTAL RESPONDENTS Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Republican Party 38 88 7 34 Democratic Party 45 6 86 40 Both (vol.) 3 1 3 3 Neither (vol.) 7 3 2 11 Don't know/No answer 7 2 2 12
Q31-Q53 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
Q54. Do you consider Russia an ally of the United States, friendly but not an ally, unfriendly, or an enemy of the United States?
Total Rep Dem Ind Mar14c % % % % % Ally 7 6 8 7 7 Friendly but not an ally 29 27 27 31 35 Unfriendly 34 35 38 31 33 Enemy 22 29 19 20 18 Don't know/No answer 9 4 8 11 7
Q55. BLANK
Q56. The United States and Europe have enacted additional sanctions against Russia in response to Russias actions in Ukraine. How effective do you think these sanctions will be in changing Russias actions in Ukraine very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not at all effective?
Very effective 7 6 10 6 Somewhat effective 31 26 46 25 Not very effective 31 36 24 33 Not at all effective 23 26 13 26 Don't know/No answer 8 6 6 10
Q57. In the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, which side do you sympathize with more--Israel or the Palestinians?
Q58. Do you think the U.S. has a responsibility to try to resolve the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, or doesnt the U.S. have this responsibility?
TOTAL RESPONDENTS Total Rep Dem Ind Aug02a* % % % % % U.S. has responsibility 35 38 40 31 47 Not U.S. responsibility 59 58 56 61 46 Don't know/No answer 6 4 4 8 7 *wording change: or isn't that really this country's business?
Q59. How much have you heard or read about the current fighting between Israel and Hamas forces in the Palestinian territory of Gaza a lot, some, or not much?
A lot 44 49 46 41 Some 29 32 27 28 Not much 24 19 25 26 Nothing 2 * 1 4 Don't know/No answer * * * 1
Q60. Who do you think is mostly to blame for the current fighting between Israel and Hamas --mostly Israel, mostly Hamas, or both sides equally?
Israel 6 2 10 6 Hamas 34 54 24 32 Both equally 47 35 55 48 Other nation (vol.) * * * 1 Don't know/No answer 12 9 11 13
Unweighted Weighted Total Respondents 1,344
Total Republicans 307 299 Total Democrats 412 377 Total Independents 625 668