Management of big projects that consist of large number of activities number of activities pose complex problems in planning, scheduling and control i ll h th ti iti h t b especially when the activities have to be performed in a specified technological sequence CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT (Programme Evaluation & Review T h i ) f l id f ffi i t j t Technique) are useful aids for efficient project management h diff i h i h h bl d h They differ in their approach to the problem and the solution technique Critical Path Method (CPM) Critical Path Method (CPM) Assumes that activity times are proportional to the amount of resources allocated to them By changing the level of resources the activity times and project completion ti b i d time can be varied It does not incorporate uncertainty in job p y j times and assumes prior experience with similar projects from which the relationship between resources and job relationship between resources and job times are available Critical Path Method (CPM) CPM then evaluates the trade_off Critical Path Method (CPM) _ between project cost and project completion time It is mostly used in construction/production projects where there is prior experience in handling similar projects handling similar projects Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Technique (PERT) PERT incorporates uncertainty in activity times in its analysis It determines the probability of p y completion of various stages by specified deadlines It also calculates the expected time to complete the project Because of its ability to handle uncertainties in job times, PERT is mostly used in research and development used in research and development projects Analysis by CPM/PERT Analysis by CPM/PERT Uses the network formulation to t th j t ti iti d th i represent the project activities and their ordering relations Network Formulation: Network Formulation: Arcs/Lines in the network represent individual jobs in the project Nodes represent specific points in time which mark the completion of one or more jobs in the project j p j Nodes are generally called Events Direction on the arc/line is used to / represent the job sequence C 1 2 3 A B 5 1 2 3 Start Completion 4 3 It is assumed that any job directed towards a node must be completed b f j b di d f h before any job directed away from that node can begin Example 1 Example 1 Consider 7 jobs A, B, C, D, E, F & G with j , , , , , the following job sequence: b d Job A precedes B & C Jobs C & D precede E Job B precedes D Job B precedes D Jobs E & F precede G Example 1 Network Formulation Example 1 Network Formulation Job A is not preceded by any Job, thus, it is the starting Job Job A precedes B & C 2 4 Start C B 1 A 3 B Example 1 Network Formulation J b B d D Example 1 Network Formulation Job B precedes D 2 4 Start C B D 1 A 3 B D Example 1 Network Formulation Example 1 Network Formulation 2 4 5 Start C E B D 1 A 3 B D Jobs C and D precede E (Since Jobs C & D precede a job, it is expected that they will be completed together) Example 1 Network Formulation Example 1 Network Formulation F 2 4 5 6 Start Completion C E G B D 1 A 3 B D Jobs E and F precede G Job F is not preceded by any Job, thus, it can start right in the beginning Example 2 Example 2 Consider a project with five jobs A, B, C, p j j , , , D & E with following job sequence: Job A precedes C and D Job B precedes D Job C and D precede E The completion time for A B C D & E are 3 The completion time for A, B, C, D & E are 3, 1, 4, 2, 5 days respectively. 1 2 4 5 Start A C E 5 4 3 3 Completion 5 4 3 B 1 D 2 0 Dummy job Dummy job Dummy job Doesnt really exist in the project It i t id d bt i th j b 3 Dummy job Dummy job It is necessary to avoid any doubt in the job sequence Completion time is always zero In this network event 3 represent the completion of job In this network event 3 represent the completion of job B and dummy job Since the dummy job is completed as soon as A is l t d t 3 ti ll fl t th l ti f completed, event 3 essentially reflects the completion of jobs A and B Rules (About dummy job) Rules (About dummy job) Each activity is represented by one and l only one arc Each activity must be identified by two distinct end nodes end nodes 1 2 A B A 3 B 2 1 OR B 1 3 A 2 B Rules Rules To maintain the correct precedence To maintain the correct precedence relationships, the following questions must be answered as each activity is added to the network: What activities must immediately precede the current activity? y What activities must follow the current activity? h i i i l What activities must occur concurrently with the current activity? Rules Rules Consider the following segment of a project: Consider the following segment of a project: Activity C starts immediately after A and B have been completed have been completed. Activity E starts after B only has been completed. A C 2 A C 3 A C 2 E B 2 B E Incorrect Correct In the Project Management Problem If the completion time of all the activities and their technological sequence are known It is called a Simplified Problem In such a problem we need to In such a problem, we need to Determine the minimum time in which the Determine the minimum time in which the project can be completed Identify the critical jobs which can cause Identify the critical jobs which can cause delay in the project completion Simplified Project Management Problem can be formulated as a LPP can be formulated as a LPP 1 2 4 5 A C E 5 4 3 3 5 4 3 B 1 D 2 0 Let us consider Example 2 f f 3 Let t i be time of occurrence of event i, where i 1 2 5 i = 1, 2, ., 5 t 1 = Start of the project t 5 t 1 = Time of completion of project and t 5 t 1 = Time of completion of project and objective is to minimize this duration LP Formulation LP Formulation Minimize Z = t 5 - t 1 Subject to t 2 - t 1 3 t - t 1 Constraints show that the Constraints show that the time time t 3 - t 1 1 t 3 t 2 0 t 4 t 2 4 Constraints show that the Constraints show that the time time available for completing available for completing a job a job should be should be time required to time required to complete complete that job that job t 4 t 3 2 t 5 t 4 5 t i 0 complete complete that job that job i This can be solved by simplex method Set t 1 = 0 and chose the values of t i as small as possible to satisfy the constraints possible to satisfy the constraints t 1 = 0, t 2 = 3, t 3 = 3, t 4 = 7, t 5 = 12; Z = t Z = t 55 -- tt 1 1 = 12 days = 12 days We can also identify critical jobs in the process We need to identify those constraints that will be satisfied as equations in the optimal will be satisfied as equations in the optimal solution, and the jobs corresponding to those constraints are the critical jobs Example t 2 t 1 3 Satisfied as Equation; Critical itical - Job A t t 1 Not satisfied t 3 t 1 1 Not satisfied t 4 t 2 4 Satisfied as Equation; Critical itical - Job C t 4 t 3 2 Not satisfied t t 5 Satisfied as Equation; Critical itical - Job E t 5 t 4 5 Satisfied as Equation; Critical itical - Job E Critical Path Th th i th j t t k ti th The path in the project network connecting the starting event and the ending event such that it passes through the critical jobs is called a critical path Fi di iti l th i t k i 1 2 4 5 Finding a critical path in a network is equivalent to finding the longest path longest path For a large project, the number of constraints may be too many for handling as LPP A direct approach is available to solve such problems A direct approach is available to solve such problems using Network Analysis Solution by Network Analysis Solution by Network Analysis Earliest time Earliest time of node j, U j , is the earliest time t hi h t j at which event j can occur Event j can occur as soon as all the jobs directed towards node j are completed 1 A towards node j are completed e. g., j occurs as soon as A, B and C are completed The earliest time of node j is given by 2 j B A The earliest time of node j is given by U j = Max (U 1 + t 1j ; U 2 + t 2j ; U 3 + t 3j ) t 1j , t 2j and t 3j are completion times of jobs A, B and C 3 C General form U j = Max (U i + t ij ) i represents all arcs (i, j) Earliest time of last node gives the earliest time of project completion Example 2 Example 2 1 2 4 5 A C E 5 4 3 3 5 4 3 B 1 D 2 0 U j can be calculated as follows U 1 = 0 3 1 U 2 = U 1 + t 12 = 3 U 3 = Max(U 1 + t 13 ; U 2 + t 23 ) = Max (1,3) = 3 U 4 = Max(U 2 + t 24 ; U 3 + t 34 ) = Max (7,5) = 7 U 5 = U 4 + t 45 = 7+5 = 12 Hence, the minimum duration of project is 12 days days However, in this process, critical jobs are not identified We need to calculate Latest time of an event Latest time of node i, V i , is the latest time , i , at which event i can occur without delaying the project beyond its earliest time 7 F The project will not be delayed if the three jobs F, G, & H are completed by V 7 , V 8 & V 9 8 i G F H This is possible if V i = min [V 7 t i7 ; V 8 t i8 ; V 9 t i9 ] 9 H General form V i = min [V j t ij ] V i = min [V j t ij ] Where j represent all nodes for which arc (i, j) exists Example 2 1 2 4 5 A C E 5 4 3 3 5 4 3 B 1 D 2 0 To calculate the latest time of the events, We set the latest time of the last event equal to its 3 We set the latest time of the last event equal to its earliest time and work backwards V 5 = U 5 = 12 V 4 = V 5 t 45 = 7 V 3 = V 4 t 34 = 5 V 2 = min [( V 4 t 24 ) ; (V 3 t 23 )] = min [3,5] = 3 V 1 = min [( V 2 t 12 ) ; (V 3 t 13 )] = min [0,4] = 0 Example 2 The EARLIEST and LATEST Times are represented p in the network as follows: (0 0) (3 3) (7 7) (12 12) 1 2 4 5 A C E 5 4 3 D (0, 0) (3, 3) (7, 7) (12, 12) 3 B 1 2 0 (3, 5) The difference between the latest time and earliest ti f t i ll d th l k ti f th t time of an event is called the slack time of that event Slack time denotes how much delay can be tolerated in Slack time denotes how much delay can be tolerated in reaching that event without delaying the project completion date For the problem slack time of various events is For the problem, slack time of various events is 1 0 2 0 3 2 Those events that have zero slack time are critical events 3 2 4 0 5 0 Critical Path is a path such that the jobs on this path have zero slack time 11 2 4 5 AA C C EE 5 4 3 Summary of the Results of Network Analysis Network Analysis Event Earliest time Latest time Slack time Remark 1 0 0 0 Critical 2 3 3 0 Critical 3 3 5 2 Non- critical 4 7 7 0 Critical 5 12 12 0 Critical Project Schedule Project Schedule i j J i j t ij U i V j Earliest occurrence time of i Latest occurrence time of j Completion time of J For J Earliest starting time = U i Latest starting time = V j t ij j j Earliest finish time = U i + t ij Latest finish time = V j (0 0) (3, 3) (7, 7) (12, 12) 1 2 4 5 A C E 5 4 3 B D 2 (0, 0) ( , ) ( , ) (12, 12) 3 B 1 2 (3, 5) Project Schedule of Example 2 Project Schedule of Example 2 11 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 J ob Expected duration Earliest start Latest Start Earliest finish Latest finish Slack time Remarks (days) U (6)-(2) (3)+(2) V (6)-(5) (days) U i (6) (2) (3)+(2) V j (6) (5) A 3 0 0 3 3 0 Critical B 1 0 4 1 5 4 Noncritical B 1 0 4 1 5 4 Noncritical C 4 3 3 7 7 0 Critical D 2 3 5 5 7 2 Noncritical E 5 7 7 12 12 0 Critical Exercise Problem Exercise Problem Consider a project consisting of nine jobs with the following precedence relationship and time g p p estimates J ob Predecessor Time (days) A - 15 A 15 B - 10 C A, B 10 D A, B 10 E B 5 E B 5 F D, E 5 G C, F 20 H D, E 10 H D, E 10 I G, H 15 Draw the project network Determine the earliest completion time of the project Determine the earliest completion time of the project Prepare the project schedule Identify the critical path Project network Project network 1 3 A 5 C 6 G 7 I (0,0) (15,15) (30,30) (50,50) (65,65) 1 3 15 5 10 6 20 7 15 B 10 D 10 H 10 0 F 5 2 4 E 5 10 10 10 (25 25) (10,15) (25,25) Slack time 1 =0 ; 2 =5 ; 3 =0 ; 4 =0 ; 5 =0 ; 6 =0; 7 =0 Critical Path 1 = 0 ; 2 = 5 ; 3 = 0 ; 4 = 0 ; 5 = 0 ; 6 = 0; 7 = 0 1 3 A 15 4 D 10 5 F 5 6 G 20 7 I 15
Hunter and Schmidt 1998 The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 85 Years of Research Findings