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Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 and ratified it in 2002, but was not on
track to meet its legally binding targets mainly because of expanding bitumen production
from oil sands. It later rejected the terms of the treaty to avoid purchasing carbon credits.
The United Nations, sponsor these climate talks, wanted Canada to remain a member of
the Kyoto regime. At the 2011 Durban meeting, Archbishop Desmond Tutu called on
Canada to show leadership on climate talks. The inability of Canada to significantly
reduce its carbon dioxide emissions shows how dependent modern societies are on fossil
fuels and the difficulty of finding cleaner and cheaper sources of energy. Carbon dioxide
has been demonstrated to be the main culprit behind global warming and since the
industrial revolution global temperatures have risen three quarters of a degree. The
increase in mean global temperature will reduce the prosperity of all regions of Canada
by affecting human health, infrastructure, economy and physical geography.

British Columbias salmon fish stocks are at risk. As new climates develop, major
loses in ocean habitats are likely to occur for all salmon species. Salmon are generally a
cold water fish and prefer to live between the temperature ranges of 7C to 20C. It has
been observed that salmon have sharp thermal limits in the oceans because the fishs
growth is maximized at lower temperatures as food is reduced. With global ocean
temperatures expected to rise in the future with the greatest warming expected in winter
and high latitudes it will change the fishs behaviour. There are two options for the fish
to mitigate rising ocean temperature: migrate to deep waters which are cooler or migrate
north to the Bearing Straight. It is observed that salmon are surface oriented so most
likely their range will shift to the Bearing Straight outside of Canadian waters. Large
areas of the North Pacific may warm past current thermal limits for much of the year
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reducing their ocean habitat and severely hurt the fishing industry in British Columbia
which is worth $330 million and employs more than 25,000 employees.
Furthermore with climate change British Columbias forestry industry is expected
to lose valuable timber reserves to forest fires and pests. The average temperature has
risen by 0.7C in British Columbia and rainfall in inland areas are expected to decrease as
temperatures rise even more. High temperatures cause more weather extremes such as
lightening storms. With dry wood being the fuel available for forest fires, they are
expected to destroy an area 25-50% larger than present and affect the forests value for
wildlife habitats, timber, recreation, and through smoke human health. Drought effects
young trees the most, and reduces decomposition processes, leading to a build-up of
organic matter on the forest floor which fuels bigger forest fires. A warming temperature
will most definitely increase insects and pathogens as seen with the chestnut blight that
almost eliminated chestnut trees and the woolly adelgid which caused vast die off of
Fraser firs. These disturbances are cascading; droughts often weaken tree vigour leading
to insect infestations by compromising tree defences. Mountain pine beetle epidemic has
spread to more than four million hectares caused by lack of low winter minimum
temperatures, which would normally reduce the population of insect pest by killing the
larvae. Pine beetle do not occur in northern areas because of the cold climate but it is
anticipated that under global warming, former climatically hostile environments will
become climatically benign, allowing them to significantly expand its range northward,
and also toward higher elevation. This massive destruction of British Columbias forests
will hurt both the provinces tourism and forestry industry which employs 127,000 and
46,000 respectively.
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In Western Canada, risks of droughts are increased as global temperatures rise.
Computational models have shown that there would be regional wetting and drying.
Regions that receive ample rain such as Central Canada and the Maritimes will be getting
wetter, while dry regions such as Western Canada will be getting drier. Most parts of
Eurasia, Africa, Canada, Alaska and eastern Australia have become drier from 1950 to
2002, but the largest drying effect occurred over Central Asia and Western Canada.
Droughts are not the only problem facing Western Canada; with higher temperatures the
soil will become less fertile over time as well. Organic carbon in soil decreases as the
temperature rises because it promotes decomposition processes (this leads to more carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere as well). One would think that a higher concentration of carbon
dioxide would increase photosynthesis to replenish the lost carbon from the soil but this
is only occurs in warmer climates. Less agricultural production would have global
repercussions as Western Canada is a major exporter of canola and wheat; global food
prices which are already high will rise much more.
The melting of permafrost will cause road degradation, ruin pipelines and
runways in the Northern Territories by developing cracks, potholes and depressing road
pavements. The Arctic at the end of the 21
st
Century is expected to warm by 5-7C, twice
the global average. One extreme example of the severity of global warming for the Inuit
occurred in July 200 when 52 Inuit hunters were marooned on top of a breakaway piece
of ice when the bearing broke off and these events will become more common as the
temperature warms further. Global warming has changed wind patterns hurting Inuit who
depend on traditional knowledge to hunt. Reduced snow accumulation, combined with
stronger winds have compacted the snow and has made it more difficult to construct
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igloos used as temporary emergency shelters. In the Nunavut community of Arctic Bay,
unusually high summer rainfall triggered a mudslide the first ever in living memory.
The irregular surface created by thawing of ice-rich permafrost is known as thermokarst
terrain. Thermokarst subsidence occurs when the energy balance at the earths surface is
modified such that heat flux to subsurface layers increases, resulting in thawing of ice-
rich layers and subsidence of ground surface. Thermokarst can have severe effects on
engineered structures such as houses, and in many cases can render them unusable.
Lyme disease affects more than 20,000 people a year in the United States. Its
found in highest levels in north-eastern states. Under moderate global warming scenarios
postulated by 2020s, the projected range of the tick carrying the disease will reach the
most heavily populated part of Ontario (South of Georgian Bay in Lake Huron), Quebec
south of Quebec city, all of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, much of New
Brunswick and Southern Manitoba. I. scapularis populations are already established in
the Carolinian Forests of southern Ontario and these forests are also likely to spread
northwards with climate change. The pace of northward spreading of these forests is not
likely to be limiting on the spread of I. scapularis, which are clearly capable of surviving
in the coniferous woodlands of Nova Scotia and perhaps northern Ontario. Central
Canadian prairies would become drier with climate change but would not support I.
scapularis even if temperature conditions become suitable. Changes in rainfall with
climate change are very likely to affect the survival of tick populations by affecting
activity of host-seeking ticks. Rainfall is not included in current models because they
remain to be quantified for I. scapularis, but clearly, within the projected ranges, I.
scapularis could only establish where habitat and rainfall make for adequate levels of
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moisture. Since the population of Central Canada is larger than north eastern United
States, it can be reasonably estimated that more than 20,000 Canadians a year will be
infected with the disease per year putting a large pressure on the health system.
Global warming will affect the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence water transportation
system in contradictory ways. There will be two fold impacts, lower water levels leading
to reduced draft (during the year the water level variability is 1.8 meters and this
fluctuation will increase), but also reduced ice cover leading to a greatly extended
navigation system. The mitigation measures of the past, primarily channel and harbour
dredging are likely to be the first line of defence in the future, but the long term solution
is to curb greenhouse gases. As the waterway supports more than 30,000 jobs, any
disturbance will impact Central Canadas economy, especially the steel sector.
The most sensitive coastal regions are several parts of Maritime Provinces and a
large part of Beaufort Sea coast. Modern retreat rates of unconsolidated coastal cliffs in
Nova Scotia average 0.5 m per year and more rapid unconsolidated cliff-retreat rates (10
m/a) occur on Beaufort Sea Coasts where ice is present in sediments. Retreat of frozen
and ice laden coastal bluffs can be very rapid (more than 10 meters in a single storm)
because the strength of the materials is lost due to thawing of permafrost. Higher water
level causes increased erosion of cliffs by shifting the locus of wave breaking higher up
the profile, so future sea level rise would probably result in increased erosion on coasts
with cliffs, particularly unconsolidated cliffs. Low-lying areas are subject to inundation
by high tides and storm surges, and the susceptibility to these events will increase as sea
level rises. Large areas susceptible to flooding occur in the Bay of Fundy, where
agricultural land enclosed by dykes is progressively getting lower in relation to the tidal
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forces. Most of the Canadian coast (67%) falls into the low-sensitivity category, 30% is
moderately sensitive and 3% is highly sensitive, but the Beaufort Sea coast of the Yukon
and the Northwest Territories is the largest area of high sensitivity in the Arctic on
account of presently rising sea level and the presence of low coasts with marshes, lagoons,
spits and barriers islands, and extensive permafrost and ground ice. Pacific coasts have
low sensitivity overall, mainly due to the preponderance of high, rocky, fjord coasts.
However, there are pockets of high sensitivity and impacts would include the danger of
overtopping of dykes, leading to flooding of the Richmond area of the Fraser Delta, and
increased erosion of unconsolidated cliffs of Vancouver. In Nova Scotias coast much
of it highly sensitive to future sea-level rise is experiencing extensive construction of
properties on land in scenic locations. Many properties will be in hazard zones in a few
decades and thus property value will decrease further adding to the economic stagnation
already facing the region.
Sea level rise induce beach erosion and the rate of erosion is about two orders of
magnitude greater than the rate of sea level rise. Sea level rise is ultimately responsible
for long-term beach erosion not storms. After Hurricane Alicia recovery was 100
percent after about ten years. This would dramatically raise the insurance costs of
thousands of Canadians who reside close to sea beaches, not to say the loss of property
value and leisure spots.
The only solution to global warming is to use energy which does not generate
carbon dioxide. An alternative to using coal for power plants would be to use biomass.
By itself, biomass power is not economical, but with carbon credits it will more than
offset the costs. In the fields of Western Canada, most straw is left to rot, but this
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uncollected straw can be used to generate almost 2000 MW of electricity. Chipping costs
are $2.00 28.78 per dry tonne and overall costs are $1200/ KW for biomass and $850
/KW for coal. The primary reason for this price discrepancy is most biomass reactors are
demonstration units and require higher capital coast (40-50% higher than comparable
coal plants), other reasons include higher mass flow rates of solid fuel, lower flame
temperature and more ash. The ash could be used to as a natural fertilizer and spread on
fields.
There are also vast untapped hydroelectric potential in Quebec (44,000
Megawatts) and British Columbia (33,000 Megawatts) which would provide energy
without carbon dioxide emissions. One has to be sure that all vegetation has been cleared
beforehand in the lakes that will form behind dams since these lakes form methane gas
which is twenty times more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Alberta itself has
over 10,000 Megawatts of potential hydroelectric capacity that could be tapped for use in
the oil sands instead of burning natural gas. For example in situ underground technique of
oil production mixes steam with the bitumen to extract the latter. The steam is injected
into a long horizontal well. Eventually, the liquefied bitumen separates from the sand and
flows down into a second well several meters below the first, where it is collected and
pumped to the surface. The steam injection process uses much less water but more energy
than near-surface mining, so it generates less wastewater but more carbon dioxide per
barrel. To drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the steam could be generated from
electrically boiling water. Bitumen is hydrogen poor so hydrogen gas is generated from
natural gas to upgrade bitumen to have a carbon to hydrogen ratio of two to one. A
cleaner method of hydrogen generation would be to electrolyse water.
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Saskatchewan and Ontario have uranium reserves of over half a million tonnes
which could be used to again generate vast quantities of emissions free electricity. For
example a 1000 MW nuclear reactor requires 100 tons of uranium per five year cycle; if
Canada utilizes the reserves for a hundred years, then there is enough uranium for 250
1000MW nuclear reactors which would double Canadas current generation capacity.
Canada by itself can do very little to stop global warming since it only emits only
two percent of all global carbon dioxide. The only solution is an international consensus
to reduce emissions. The first agreement on greenhouse gas emissions was reached at the
Rio Environmental Summit meeting in 1992; each developed country was to voluntarily
ensure that its carbon dioxide emission rate in 2000 would be no greater than that in 1990.
This target was met, in fact, by very few countries, by 2000, most were emitting well
above their targets. The second agreement was reached in negotiations held in Kyoto,
Japan, in 1997. Thirty-nine industrialized nations agreed to decrease their collective
carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 5.2 % by 2008-2012, compared to 1990 levels.
Emissions by developing countries were not controlled by the Kyoto Accord, since they
had not been significant players in emitting greenhouse gases in the past. By 2005, a
global reduction greater than that required by the Kyoto agreement had been achieved
mostly because countries in the former Soviet bloc had reduced their emissions by a large
amount as a result of the partial collapse of their economies. Japan and the European
Union were expected to meet their reduction targets, but the United States, Canada,
Australia and several other countries have greatly exceed their original targets. Rather
than utilizing a procedure in which countries have carbon dioxide emission targets that
are negotiated at international meetings, schemes should be discussed that are based upon
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allocation that could be traded between (or within) countries on the open market. The
question of how national carbon dioxide allocations can be made fairly in order to initiate
the free market carbon dioxide emission cap-and-trade scheme on a world-wide basis is a
perplexing one. In the simplest case, each country would be assigned an allocation based
strictly upon its current population. For example, if it was concluded that the current
average annual emission of one tonne of carbon as carbon dioxide per capita could be
sustained indefinitely, then this quantity would be allocated to a country for each of its
residents. An immediate consequence of a per capita allocation method would be the
annual transfer of substantial funds from all developed countries to developing and
underdeveloped counties, since most developed countries all exceed one-tonne average
by factors ranging from two to five times. The chance of implementing this scheme is
slim since it would cause a rise in electricity rates for developed countries. One
alternative allocation scheme is based upon how much energy is required for industrial
production by a country and how efficiently it uses energy. Thus a countrys carbon
dioxide allocation would be directly proportional to its GDP.
Canadians today faces a paradox, on the one hand, there exists the slight
possibility that doubling or quadrupling the carbon dioxide concentrations will have
much less of an effect than predictions, and the efforts taken to prevent such an increase
would represent an economic burden. If the predictions of scientists who model the
Earths climate turn out to be realistic, but we do nothing to prevent further build-up of
greenhouse gases, both present and future generations of Canadians prosperity will
decline. The precautionary principle should be invoked because the costs of inactions will
be very high.