Tel.

(662) 949-1000
Fax: (662) 949-1030
www.scbs.com
The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein reflect
our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only. It is not to be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy
any securities. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. We or our associates may have an interest in the companies mentioned therein.


Broiler exports looking at an upcycle
Skies bright for 2H14 through 2015
Fall in corn and soybean prices to be fully felt in 1Q15
BUY. Upgrade target price to Bt20, based on 2015 PER at 12x
Very good outlook for 2H14 through 2015. We have raised our assumption for
quarterly broiler exports in 2H14 by 11% to 7,200 tons from 6,500 tons, as exports to
Japan and Malaysia are exceeding initial expectations. Part of this is a switch of orders
from Japans McDonalds to Thailand from China. Broken down, we expect Japan to
take 4,000 tons or 55% of total volume, with Europe taking 2,000 tons, Malaysia 800
tons, and the remainder going to Hong Kong and Singapore. GFPT itself will enjoy
increasing orders from Asia while subsidiary GFN (49%) will get the orders from Europe.
Export price is stable at US$4,400-4,500/ton. Although there will be a price drop locally
in 3Q14 because of the 10-day vegetarian festival, GFPT expects to maintain a good
margin since prices for feed raw materials, notably corn, have fallen sharply.
Corn and soybean meal prices down on higher supply. Good weather has pushed
forecasts for US corn and soybean crops up to record high levels and this has pushed
prices down. Corn prices have fallen 29.5% from peak in May to a four-year low on
expectation of a huge harvest and soybean meal price has come down 22.9% from
peak in June. Output in Europe, South America and the Black Sea region is also
expected to be strong. Feed mills and meat producers will enjoy the benefit from
these price drops from 1Q15.
Strong Japan export market. GFPT expects 2014 to be a good year for broiler
exports and hopes to increase export volume 10-20% to 2,000-2,200 tons per month
(~25,000 tons in 2014) from 1,800 tons per month or 22,500 tons last year. Behind this
is the increase in exports to Japan of 1,000 tons per month to 4,000 tons per month
after 1Q14; the Japan market is believed to be stronger than the EU.
We BUY and raise target price to Bt20, based on 2015 PER of 12x. The outlook for
chicken exports 2H14 through 2015 is outstanding. First, the sharp fall in corn and
soybean prices will improve spread. Second, Japan as a whole will be taking more
chicken, not just Japan McDonalds. Finally, there is room to explore the Russia market.
We estimate GFPTs profit at Bt570-620mn in 3Q14 and almost Bt500mn in 4Q14. It
also plans to expand capacity by 10% yearly. This supports a raise in 2014F net profit
growth to 32% from 26%. It is now trading at a PER of 9.9x in 2015. We raise target
price from Bt18 to Bt20 (rolling from 11x 2015 PER to 12x2015 PER).
Forecasts and valuation
Year to 31 Dec Unit 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Revenue (Btmn) 15,370 16,699 20,136 21,570 23,749
EBITDA (Btmn) 1,163 2,383 2,895 3,038 3,183
Core profit (Btmn) 41 1,504 1,996 2,108 2,258
Reported profit (Btmn) 41 1,504 1,996 2,108 2,258
Core EPS (Bt) 0.03 1.20 1.59 1.68 1.80
DPS (Bt) 0.00 0.35 0.48 0.50 0.54
P/E, core (x) 509.8 13.8 10.4 9.9 9.2
EPS growth, core (%) (96.6) 3,582.7 32.7 5.6 7.1
P/BV, core (x) 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8
ROE (%) 0.7 22.7 24.7 22.2 20.5
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 2.1 2.9 3.0 3.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.6 11.0 9.1 8.7 8.3
Source: SCBS Investment Research

COMPANY UPDATE
GFPT PLC

Tuesday, August 19, 2014
BUY
Stock Data
Last close (Aug 18) (Bt) 16.60
12-m target price (Bt) 20.00
Upside (Downside) to TP (%) 20.48
Mkt cap (Btbn) 20.81
Mkt cap (US$mn) 654

Bloomberg code GFPT TB
Reuters code GFPT.BK
Risk rating M
Mkt cap (%) SET 0.15
Sector % SET 0.56
Shares issued (mn) 1,254
Par value (Bt) 1
12-m high / low (Bt) 16.6 / 8.4
Avg. daily 6m (US$mn) 1.86
Foreign limit / actual (%) 49 / 19
Free float (%) 44.0
Dividend policy (%) 50
Price Performance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
A
u
g
-
1
2
O
c
t
-
1
2
D
e
c
-
1
2
F
e
b
-
1
3
A
p
r
-
1
3
J
u
n
-
1
3
A
u
g
-
1
3
O
c
t
-
1
3
D
e
c
-
1
3
F
e
b
-
1
4
A
p
r
-
1
4
J
u
n
-
1
4
A
u
g
-
1
4
GFPT Stock Price
GFPT Rel. to SET (rebased)
Stock Price (Bt)
Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research
Share performance
1M 3M 12M
Absolute 16.9 23.9 75.7
Relative to SET 16.6 13.3 59.3
Source: SET, SCBS Investment Research

Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai
Securities Fundamental
Investment Analyst
(66-2) 949-1033
vajiralux.sanglerdsillapachai@scb.co.th

GFPT Plc Tuesday, August 19, 2014


2

Financial statement
Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn)
FY December 31 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Total revenue 15,370 16,699 20,136 21,570 23,749
Cost of goods sold 14,374 14,418 17,136 18,333 20,210
Gross profit 996 2,281 3,000 3,238 3,539
SG&A 1,005 1,097 1,299 1,391 1,521
Other income 281 312 290 285 255
Interest expense 147 186 154 159 150
Pre-tax profit 124 1,310 1,838 1,972 2,123
Corporate tax 1 13 175 185 184
Equity a/c profits (74) 221 347 335 333
Minority interests (8) (14) (14) (14) (14)
Core profit 41 1,504 1,996 2,108 2,258
Extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 41 1,504 1,996 2,108 2,258
EBITDA 1,163 2,383 2,895 3,038 3,183
Core EPS (Bt) 0.03 1.20 1.59 1.68 1.80
Net EPS (Bt) 0.03 1.20 1.59 1.68 1.80
DPS (Bt) 0.00 0.35 0.48 0.50 0.54
Profit and Loss Statement (Btmn)
FY December 31 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Total revenue 4,083 4,376 4,404 4,016 4,498
Cost of goods sold 3,631 3,580 3,691 3,435 3,842
Gross profit 452 797 713 582 656
SG&A 261 264 321 264 281
Other income 91 47 70 53 56
Interest expense (48) (43) (43) (38) (39)
Pre-tax profit 234 536 419 333 392
Corporate tax (8) 1 0 (12) (14)
Equity a/c profits 63 78 51 82 80
Minority interests (3) (6) (4) (3) (5)
Core profit 302 607 465 424 481
Extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 302 607 465 424 481
EBITDA 589 813 679 602 663
Core EPS (Bt) 0.24 0.48 0.37 0.34 0.38
Net EPS (Bt) 0.24 0.48 0.37 0.34 0.38
Balance Sheet (Btmn)
FY December 31 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Total current assets 5,476 4,646 8,110 10,187 13,254
Total fixed assets 7,713 8,082 6,971 7,380 7,400
Total assets 13,189 13,103 15,480 17,992 21,104
Total loans 5,693 2,127 2,591 3,500 6,815
Total current liabilities 4,655 5,076 6,008 7,015 8,524
Total long-term liabilities 2,594 570 610 630 650
Total liabilities 7,249 5,645 6,617 7,644 9,174
Paid-up capital 1,254 1,254 1,254 1,254 1,254
Total equity 5,940 7,458 8,863 10,348 11,930
BVPS (Bt) 4.82 5.88 6.99 8.17 9.43
Balance Sheet (Btmn)
FY December 31 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Total current assets 4,371 4,583 4,646 4,979 4,848
Total fixed assets 8,026 8,269 8,457 8,647 8,912
Total assets 12,397 12,852 13,103 13,626 13,759
Total loans 2,315 4,323 2,047 4,181 3,572
Total current liabilities 5,490 5,348 5,076 3,269 3,071
Total long-term liabilities 560 544 570 2,554 2,840
Total liabilities 6,050 5,891 5,645 5,823 5,912
Paid-up capital 1,254 1,254 1,254 1,254 1,254
Total equity 6,347 6,960 7,458 7,803 7,848
BVPS (Bt) 5.06 5.55 5.95 6.22 6.26
Cash Flow Statement (Btmn)
FY December 31 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Pretax profit 50 1,530 2,185 2,307 2,456
Depreciation and amortization 892 888 903 907 910
Operting cash flow (84) 3,057 1,303 3,384 2,767
Investing cash flow (1,991) (1,292) (925) (925) (925)
Financing cash flow 2,230 (1,752) 301 (94) 687
Net cash flow 104 28 491 2,167 2,330
Main Assumptions
FY December 31 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Broiler export (ton) 18,600 22,500 26,000 28,500 28,500
Broiler domestic (ton) 66,500 59,600 62,500 65,000 66,000
Cooked Chicken Price (US$/ton) 4,400 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,400
Animal feed (ton) 543,600 527,900 620,000 660,000 660,000
Equity Sharing: GFN + Mckey(Btmn) (74) 221 347 335 333

Key Financial Ratios
FY December 31 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F
Gross margin (%) 6.5 13.7 14.0 14.0 13.9
Operating margin (%) (0.1) 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.4
EBITDA margin (%) 7.6 14.3 13.9 13.4 13.0
EBIT margin (%) 1.3 10.3 10.7 10.3 10.2
Net profit margin (%) 0.3 9.0 9.0 8.7 8.6
ROE (%) 0.7 22.7 20.7 18.3 17.1
ROA (%) 0.4 11.4 11.7 10.3 9.5
Net D/E (x) 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
Payout Ratio (%) 0.0 29.2 30.0 30.0 30.0
PBV Band Chart
0
5
10
15
20
25
J
a
n
-
0
4
J
u
l
-
0
4
J
a
n
-
0
5
J
u
l
-
0
5
J
a
n
-
0
6
J
u
l
-
0
6
J
a
n
-
0
7
J
u
l
-
0
7
J
a
n
-
0
8
J
u
l
-
0
8
J
a
n
-
0
9
J
u
l
-
0
9
J
a
n
-
1
0
J
u
l
-
1
0
J
a
n
-
1
1
J
u
l
-
1
1
J
a
n
-
1
2
J
u
l
-
1
2
J
a
n
-
1
3
J
u
l
-
1
3
J
a
n
-
1
4
J
u
l
-
1
4
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
3.0x
Price (Bt) PBV Band GFPT
2.5x

12-Month Cumulative directors trade 12 Month cumulative chg in foreign ownership versus cumulative
chg in SET index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
S
e
p
-
1
3
O
c
t
-
1
3
N
o
v
-
1
3
D
e
c
-
1
3
J
a
n
-
1
4
F
e
b
-
1
4
M
a
r
-
1
4
A
p
r
-
1
4
M
a
y
-
1
4
J
u
n
-
1
4
J
u
l
-
1
4
A
u
g
-
1
4
'
0
0
0

S
h
a
r
e
s
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
B
t
/
S
h
a
r
e
Cumulative Net Buy/Sell Avg. Price
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
A
u
g
-
1
3
S
e
p
-
1
3
O
c
t
-
1
3
N
o
v
-
1
3
D
e
c
-
1
3
J
a
n
-
1
4
F
e
b
-
1
4
M
a
r
-
1
4
A
p
r
-
1
4
M
a
y
-
1
4
J
u
n
-
1
4
J
u
l
-
1
4
A
u
g
-
1
4
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0% Cumulative SET (LHS)
Cumulative GFPT (RHS)
Cumulative Change in SET index
Cumulative Change in Foreign
Ownership
Source: SEC Source: SCBS Investment Research

GFPT Plc Tuesday, August 19, 2014


3



Figure 1: US corn price YTD (US$/bushel) Figure 2: Soybean Meal price YTD (US$/bushel)
Source: www.bisnews.com Source: www.bisnews.com

Figure 3: Better spread of broiler with animal feed to meat ratio at 1.8:1 (Bt/kg)
3.3 3.4
11.6
14.7
12.3
7.8
-0.5
9.1
3.5
8.1
12.1
10.2
12.0
14.3
8.9
13.0
22.6
5.1
6.4
-0.4
3.2
7.0
18.6
3.8
9.9
12.3
12.6
7.9
4.9
14.7
5.3
13.3
7.6 9.0
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1
Q
0
4
2
Q
0
4
3
Q
0
4
4
Q
0
4
1
Q
0
5
2
Q
0
5
3
Q
0
5
4
Q
0
5
1
Q
0
6
2
Q
0
6
3
Q
0
6
4
Q
0
6
1
Q
0
7
2
Q
0
7
3
Q
0
7
4
Q
0
7
1
Q
0
8
2
Q
0
8
3
Q
0
8
4
Q
0
8
1
Q
0
9
2
Q
0
9
3
Q
0
9
4
Q
0
9
1
Q
1
0
2
Q
1
0
3
Q
1
0
4
Q
1
0
1
Q
1
1
2
Q
1
1
3
Q
1
1
4
Q
1
1
1
Q
1
2
2
Q
1
2
3
Q
1
2
4
Q
1
2
1
Q
1
3
2
Q
1
3
3
Q
1
3
4
Q
1
3
1
Q
1
4
A
p
r
-
1
4
M
a
y
-
1
4

Source: Company Data, SCBS Investment Research

Figure 4: Livestock feed ingredients (in brief) Figure 5: Shrimp feed ingredients (in brief)
Corn, 50%
Soybean meal,
25%
fish meal, 10%
Others, 15%

Wheat flour,
30%
soybean meal,
30%
fish meal, 20%
Others, 20%

Source: Company Data, SCBS Investment Research Source: Company Data, SCBS Investment Research

Figure 6: Valuation summary (price as of Aug 18, 2014)
Rating Price Target ETR P/ E (x) EPS growth (%) P/ BV (x) ROE (%) Div. Yield (%) EV/ EBITDA (x)
(Bt/ Sh) (Bt/ Sh) (%) 13A 14F 15F 13A 14F 15F 13A 14F 15F 13A 14F 15F 13A 14F 15F 13A 14F 15F
CPF Buy 29.00 35.0 24.5 n.m. 15.6 10.8 n.m. n.m. 44 1.7 1.6 1.6 (1) 10 15 1.7 3.8 5.5 34.5 12.7 10.6
GFPT Buy 16.60 20.0 23.4 13.8 10.4 9.9 n.m. 33 6 2.8 2.3 2.0 22 22 20 2.1 2.9 3.0 10.6 8.7 7.9
PM Buy 10.60 11.0 8.7 15.6 13.3 12.4 0 17 7 4.6 4.1 3.7 29 28 27 4.7 4.9 5.2 12.2 10.0 9.3
TUF Buy 68.50 80.0 20.3 28.1 14.3 13.5 (33) 97 6 1.8 1.6 1.5 7 12 11 2.2 3.5 3.7 20.2 11.9 11.1
Average 19.2 13.4 11.6 (17) 49 16 2.7 2.4 2.2 14 18 18 2.7 3.8 4.4 19.4 10.8 9.7
Source: SCBS Investment Research


Rating 2013 Companies with CG Rating
ADVANC, AOT, ASIMAR, BAFS, BANPU, BAY, BBL, BCP, BECL, BKI, BROOK, BTS, CIMBT, CK, CPF, CPN, CSL, DRT, DTAC, EASTW, EGCO, ERW, GRAMMY, HANA, HEMRAJ, ICC, INTUCH, IRPC, IVL, KBANK, KKP, KTB, LPN, MCOT, MINT, NKI, NOBLE, PAP, PG, PHOL, PR, PRANDA, PS, PSL, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, QH,
RATCH, ROBINS, RS, S&J, SAMART, SAMTEL, SAT, SC, SCB, SCC, SCSMG, SE-ED, SIM, SIS, SITHAI, SNC, SPALI, SPI, SSI, SSSC, SVI, SYMC, TCAP, THAI, THCOM, THRE, TIP, TISCO, TKT, TMB, TNITY, TOP, TRC, TRUE, TTW, TVO, UV, VGI, WACOAL
2S, ACAP, AF, AHC, AIT, AKP, AMANAH, AMARIN, AMATA, AP, APCO, APCS, ASIA, ASK, ASP, AYUD, BEC, BFIT, BH, BIGC, BJC, BLA, BMCL, BWG, CCET, CENTEL, CFRESH, CGS, CHOW, CM, CNT, CPALL, CSC, DCC, DELTA, DTC, ECL, EE, EIC, ESSO, FE, FORTH, GBX, GC, GFPT, GL, GLOW, GOLD, GSTEL, GUNKUL,
HMPRO, HTC, IFEC, INET, ITD, JAS, JUBILE, KBS, KCE, KGI, KKC, KSL, KWC, L&E, LANNA, LH, LHBANK, LHK, LIVE, LOXLEY, LRH, LST, MACO, MAJOR, MAKRO, MBK, MBKET, MFC, MFEC, MODERN, MTI, NBC, NCH, NINE, NMG, NSI, NWR, OCC, OFM, OGC, OISHI, PB, PDI, PE, PF, PJW, PM, PPM, PPP, PREB, PRG,
PT, PYLON, QTC, RASA, SABINA, SAMCO, SCCC, SCG, SEAFCO, SFP, SIAM, SINGER, SIRI, SKR, SMT, SNP, SPCG, SPPT, SSF, STANLY, STEC, SUC, SUSCO, SYNTEC, TASCO, TCP, TF, TFD, TFI, THANA, THANI, THIP, TICON, TIPCO, TK, TLUXE, TMILL, TMT, TNL, TOG, TPC, TPCORP, TPIPL, TRT, TRU, TSC, TSTE,
TSTH, TTA, TTCL, TUF, TWFP, TYM, UAC, UMI, UMS, UP, UPOIC, UT, VIBHA, VIH, VNG, VNT, YUASA, ZMICO
A, AAV, AEC, AEONTS, AFC, AGE, AH, AI, AJ, AKR, ALUCON, ANAN, ARIP, AS, BAT-3K, BCH, BEAUTY, BGT, BLAND, BOL, BROCK, BSBM, CHARAN, CHUO, CI, CIG, CITY, CMR, CNS, CPL, CRANE, CSP, CSR, CTW, DEMCO, DNA, DRACO, EA, EARTH, EASON, EMC, EPCO, F&D, FNS, FOCUS, FPI, FSS, GENCO, GFM,
GJS, GLOBAL, HFT, HTECH, HYDRO, IFS, IHL, ILINK, INOX, IRC, IRCP, IT, JMART, JMT, JTS, JUTHA, KASET, KC, KCAR, KDH, KTC, KWH, LALIN, LEE, MATCH, MATI, MBAX, MDX, PRINC, MJD, MK, MOONG, MPIC, MSC, NC, NIPPON, NNCL, NTV, OSK, PAE, PATO, PICO, PL, POST, PRECHA, PRIN, Q-CON, QLT, RCI,
RCL, ROJNA, RPC, SCBLIF, SCP, SENA, SF, SGP, SIMAT, SLC, SMIT, SMK, SOLAR, SPC, SPG, SRICHA, SSC, STA, SUPER, SVOA, SWC, SYNEX, TBSP, TCCC, TEAM, TGCI, TIC, TIES, TIW, TKS, TMC, TMD, TMI, TNDT, TNPC, TOPP, TPA, TPP, TR, TTI, TVD, TVI, TWZ, UBIS, UEC, UOBKH, UPF, UWC, VARO, VTE, WAVE,
WG, WIN, WORK
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of
Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is fromthe perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not base on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. SCB Securities Company Limited does not conformnor certify the accuracy of such survey result.