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Nuclear power in constant decline since 1996, see these 6 charts
Brad Plumer | Vox.com
Nuclear power is slowly going out of style. Back in 1996, atomic energy supplied 17.6 percent of the worlds
electricity. Today thats down to just 10.8 percent and it could drop even further in the years ahead.
Thats according to the World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2014, which charts the rise and fall of nuclear power
over time.
The upshot is that significantly fewer nuclear reactors are in operation today than was the case in 2010 in large
part due to the shutdown of 48 reactors in Japan after the Fukushima disaster. On the flip side, only China currently
has plans to massively ramp up reactor construction. And new reactors in many countries, from Finland to Vietnam,
are falling victim to delays and cost overruns.
Thats not encouraging news for efforts to tackle global warming. The proportion of energy that the world gets from
carbon-free sources has stagnated since 1999 in part because of the nuclear industrys struggles. And the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that reducing emissions will be significantly more expensive
if nuclear powers not available.
Here are six key charts from the report:
1) Nuclear energy production has been falling since 2005
Nuclear electricity generation kept rising during the 1990s until it hit a peak of 2,660 terrawatt-hours in 2005. But then
it started falling and generated just 2,359 Twh of electricity in 2013.
Whats more, nuclear power has been eclipsed by other energy sources particularly coal and natural gas. Back in
1996, nuclear power provided 17.6 percent of the worlds electricity. Today, thats down to around 10.8 percent.
2) There are 388 nuclear reactors in operation down from 438 a decade ago
The biggest reason for that drop is due to the long-term reactor outages in Japan after Fukushima. Japan has 48
nuclear reactors, but only 2 have generated electricity since 2013, and none have produced any electricity since last
fall.
That could conceivably change in the future Japans nuclear regulators are currently inspecting 17 reactors and
have declared two plants in compliance with upgraded safety rules. But its not clear how many reactors will actually
restart, since nuclear power still faces sizable public opposition in Japan.
Meanwhile, Germany is in the process of phasing out its nuclear power program in the wake of Fukushima. The
country closed 8 of its nuclear reactors in 2011, and has plans to shut down the remaining 9 between 2015 and 2022.
(In the meantime, old-fashioned coal is making a comeback in Germany.)
The United States has also seen the early retirement of 5 nuclear reactors since 2012 in Florida, Wisconsin,
Vermont, and two in California. Some of those reactors were simply too pricey to keep open in the face of rising
maintenance costs and competition from cheap natural gas and wind power.
3) Only 31 countries are operating nuclear power plants
The United States still generates more electricity from nuclear power than any country in the world about twice as
much as France.
Those are absolute figures. As a percentage of electricity, however, France wins this, getting roughly 75 percent of its
electricity from nuclear. Belgium, Slovakia, and Hungary also get about half their power from nuclear. (The United
States gets just 19 percent of its electricity from nuclear a consequence of the fact that the country is huge.)
Note that most countries are generating less electricity from nuclear than they have at their historical peak
particularly Germany and Japan.
4) There were 67 reactors under construction in 2014 but delays are a problem
The chart above shows the number of reactors under construction worldwide. The number has grown since 2005
and reached 67 in 2014. Thats way below the peak in the 1970s and 1980s.
Its also worth noting that this number can mask many of the difficulties in building new reactors. Eight of those
reactors have been under construction for more than 20 years including the US Watts Bar Unit 2 project in
Tennessee, which began in 1972, was stalled for years and then restarted recently, missed a deadline in 2012, and is
hoping to get connected to the grid by 2015.
All told, the report notes that 49 of those reactors under construction have met with significant delays, ranging from
several months to several years. Nuclear reactors are expensive and take a long time to build. They can face all sorts
of obstacles in the meantime from cost overruns to complex licensing processes to regulatory hurdles to popular
opposition (the latter recently blocked construction of two reactors in Taiwan).
Past experience shows that simply having an order for a reactor, or even having a nuclear plant at an advanced
stage of construction, is no guarantee for grid connection and power production, the report notes.
5) Just 14 countries have plans to build new nuclear reactors
The report notes that four-fifths of new construction is taking place in Asia and Eastern Europe. China is the only
country on a nuclear reactor building spree, with plans to build 28 new units by 2018.
A few countries, including France and Finland and China, are working on next generation reactors with higher
efficiency and advanced safety systems. So far, however, those projects are bogged down in delays and overruns
the Olkiluoto project in Finland is three times over budget and 9 years late, while the Flamanville project in France is
4 years late. Chinas two next-generation Taishan plants have run into fewer problems, but theyre expected to be
more than a year late and wont be online until at least 2015.
6) Without further action, nuclear power could vanish in 50 years
The chart above shows how long the worlds existing reactors are likely to last in the decades ahead. By 2059, most
of them are likely to be retired. That means, unless the world goes on a frenzy of new construction, nuclear power will
nearly vanish by mid-century.
Heres how the authors figure: Without new construction, the average age of the worlds nuclear reactors has now
reached 28.5 years. Many reactors may shut down once they hit 40 years, although some will likely get extended for
longer than that (at a cost of $1 billion or more).
It all depends on the country. In the United States, many reactors were initially licensed to last 40 years, although they
can apply for a 20-year extension and, so far, 72 of the 100 existing reactors have received government
permission to keep operating for 60 years.
Eventually, however, all of the worlds current reactors will have to retire as the chart above shows, the report pegs
this date at sometime in the 2050s. That means the world will have to build around 394 additional reactors between
now and then just to maintain existing capacity. And if nuclear power is to expand above current levels, wed have to
build more than that.
Thats a daunting task. A variety of reports on climate change have suggested that a major increase in carbon-free
nuclear power will be crucial to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and avoid drastic temperature increases.
But, right now, the world isnt even building enough reactors to maintain existing capacity let alone ramping up.