Commentary by J.

Bradley Jansen
November 28, 2005
Lessons from election 2005

As we unbuckle our belts another notch after a family Thanksgiving dinner, it is a

good time to take stock of our reasons for thanks in the public arena as well.
Generally the only time the “conventional wisdom” is right is when acknowledging
that the conventional wisdom is may be conventional but it is rarely wise. The
take on the recent elections is a good case in point.

Democratic partisans have been crowing about the gubernatorial races in Virginia
and New Jersey as harbingers for their coming success in the midterm Congressional
races next year. Also, pundits have used the recent elections as additional proof
that the country has turned against the Bush Administration.

The argument that the election results are a repudiation of the Republicans in
general and President George Bush in particular does not stand up to scrutiny.

First, here are the basic facts: In New Jersey, the Republican nominee for
governor ran a lackluster campaign which thought its strongest closing argument
was to use the opponent’s ex-wife’s personal views of her former spouse. Despite
their best efforts (and being outspent), the Republicans increased their share
vote by two percentage points in the gubernatorial race, and the Democrats dropped
three percentage points from four years earlier. Last year, John Kerry won the
state with 53% in the presidential race against Al Gore’s 56% in 2000. In short,
New Jersey continues trending Republican.

In Virginia, the Democrats hung on to the governorship in a tight race with a

slightly lower percentage of the vote than four years ago. While losing the vote
for lieutenant governor’s office they used to hold and, at this writing, the
attorney general’s race (which stays in the Republican column), the Democrats will
control fewer offices then presently.

Of course, the referenda in California and Ohio provide a more complete picture.
In both states, voters rejected radical plans to alter the system by which the
state would choose its representatives to the U.S. Congress as early as the
elections next year. Instead, voters in these two states chose the status quo
ante. Exactly how the status quo (minus some support for the Democrats) was a
“win” for the minority party and a signal of impending doom for the Republicans is
a lesson in political spin.

A closer look at the vote in Ohio—probably the best political bell weather of any
state—provides a unique insight into our collective political psyche. The four
“Reform Ohio Now” issues promoted by a coalition “working to hold politicians
accountable in Ohio” through a series of constitutional amendments failed two-to-
one statewide (while another unrelated issue passed).

These results belie any delusions that the Democrats had the last presidential
election stolen from them in the state just last year. Working America, a
community affiliate of the AFL-CIO, was the organizational force behind the four
electoral initiatives. Their aim was to fight “for what really matters—good jobs,
affordable health care, world-class education, secure retirements, real homeland
security and more [and to] work against wrong-headed priorities favoring the rich
and corporate special interests over America’s well-being.”

In short, the Republicans should be giving thanks that the country continues
trending its way. More importantly, Republicans should be thankful that their
opposition generally continues peddling stale ideas that are soundly—and rightly—
rejected by the voters. Ohio looks likely to replace the failed tax and spend
governorship of Bob Taft (who is heir to the Taft legacy in name only and makes
the current national Republicans looks like tightwads) with current fellow
Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the bête noire of Democratic
conspiracy theorists. (In the spirit of full disclosure, the first campaign I
ever volunteered for was Blackwell’s race for Congress in 1990.)

Having been born and raised in (old) Taft Republican territory, I am happy that
voters are not just blindly voting in a partisan fashion. At the same time Ohio
voters seem keen to replace an incompetent Republican for governor with a
competent one, they are also prepared to boot out Republican Sen. Mike DeWine (who
preaches fiscal responsibility, limited government and individual rights but does
not vote for it). Democratic challenger Paul Hackett currently leads DeWine in
the polls which should give Democrats something to be thankful for (and increases
their chance of retaking the Senate)—if only their tired failure of an
establishment would allow it.