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To: The Grimes Campaign
From: The Mellman Group, Inc.
Re: Grimes Is Tied With McConnell In Kentuckys Senate Race
Date: September 9, 2014
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 800 voters representing the likely 2014 general electorate in Kentucky. Interviews
were conducted by telephone September 4-7, 2014, using a registration-based sample. Both cell and landline phones were contacted by
live interviewers. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.5% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for
subgroups.
Seasons change and so do the holders of U.S. Senate seats. Despite being bludgeoned with millions of dollars in
negative ads issuing from the camp of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, our just completed survey shows
Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Mitch McConnell by 1 point. While the incumbent remains better known,
Grimes is better liked by those who know each. With Grimes now in a position to better keep pace with the
GOPs television onslaught, this race could hardly be closer and will go down to the wire.
Grimes Enjoys A 1-Point Lead
Alison Lundergan Grimes enjoys
a small but impressive lead over
the nearly three decade incumbent
McConnell (43% Grimes, 42%
McConnell, with 15% undecided).
Moreover, Grimes holds an edge
over McConnell in terms of the
proportion saying they support
their preferred candidate
strongly, with 35% supporting
Grimes strongly against only 30%
who support McConnell strongly.
Grimes leads among independents
by 40% to 30%. Whats more,
looking at the vote among those
respondents who know both of the
candidates, Grimes moves out to a
majority and a 9-point lead (50%
Grimes, 41% McConnell, 9%
undecided).
Grimes Has An Image Advantage
Grimes image advantage is manifested in two key summary measures: favorability and job performance. While
McConnell remains better known, on a personal level, Grimes is viewed net-favorably by a 5-point margin
whereas McConnell is net-unfavorable by 5 points. McConnells job performance ratings also stand out for
being strongly negative (32% positive, 61% negative) while assessments of Grimes are much more positive.
The Mellman Group
September 2014
Page 2 of 2
Beneath the surface, Grimes has significant advantages on personal and political attributes that drive voters
decisions on Election Day. Significantly larger percentages believe the phrases will work to create good jobs
(+9) and will protect Social
Security and Medicare (+9)
describe Grimes better than
McConnell. Meanwhile the three
phrases McConnell is most strongly
associated with relative to Grimes
are all negative: opposes raising
the minimum wage (+42), has
been in office too long (+45), and
supports tax breaks for companies
that ship jobs overseas (+33).
Thus, Grimes appeals to voters on
key pocketbook issues.
In short, Grimes narrowly leads
what is an essentially tied race.
Whats more, her advantages in
personal popularity, job
performance, and key image
attributes put Grimes in a strong
position to win in November.
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The Mellman Group, a polling and consulting firm, has helped guide the campaigns of 28 U.S. Senators, 11
Governors and over two dozen Members of Congress. The firm has achieved a reputation for providing winning
strategies and accurate data, even when others are wrong. Most famously, when every other poll showed Leader
Harry Reid losing in 2010, The Mellman Group not only showed him winning, but projected his exact margin of
victory, as documented in a Las Vegas Sun article headlined, How Harry Reids Pollster Got It Right. In 2012
a 538.com analysis by Nate Silver found The Mellman Group to be the nations most accurate campaign pollster,
tied for second most accurate pollster overall and the only pollster exhibiting zero partisan biasa finding which
seeped into popular culture when the Doonesbury cartoon strip also cited the firms accuracy.