THE COFFEE MARKET &

STARBUCKS

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Recent Capital Markets Activity
Cofee Industry Overview
Company Considerations
Share price performance
Recent Corporate Actions
Operating Performance
Valuation
Trade Idea
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This presentation evaluates the consumer services industry in which Starbucks (SBUX)
operates.

In this analysis, I have identied the fundamental drivers of the cofee industry and
company; to evaluate the intrinsic price of SBUXs shares using a fully integrated nancial
statements forecast model and discounted cash ow valuation.

I have observed the following key valuation drivers with respect to the companys operating
performance and documented assumptions for SBUX growth:
Growth of revenues in traditional markets and existing stores: Americas unit growth is likely
to rise. SBUX is increasing its performance in the US by designing all of its bakery, lunch and
evening initiatives to optimize revenues throughout the day.
SBUX expanding to new markets: China retail opportunity is very attractive. Year-1 cash-on-cash
returns of 67% are almost double the U.S. in its nascent stage, with portfolio returns >100%.
With a total unit opportunity of 12K in China, a sustained runway of annual 30%+ co-owned
unit growth is expected.
Innovations: SBUX is expanding its product ofering beyond ready-to-drink-cofee through
beverage innovations and new acquisitions (Teavana, La Boulange). The new mobile app
platform is also a key contributor to current and ongoing comp momentum.


CAPITAL MARKETS
OVERVIEW
Investor Sentiment Quotes
The recent unprecedented weather has afected both the 2014-15 and the
2015-16 crops () even under the most optimistic scenario, we expect a
second consecutive cofee market decit. (Volcafe Ltd)
Foolish investors should strongly consider initiating positions in Starbucks
right now, because I believe its long-term potential is far greater than that of
any other company in the industry (Joseph Solitro, former nancial analyst
at Capital Guardian LLC)
Starbucks is quickly making an impact in grocery stores with the sale of
packaged cofee, Starbucks Refreshers, and even Oprah-branded Chai Tea.
These initiatives, combined with the ongoing changes to Starbucks' menu
oferings, outline a diverse set of growth drivers that leave little reason to
doubt that Starbucks will continue to drive earnings-per-share growth of
15%. (Brian Shaw, former nancial analyst at Atlantic Financial)

Investor Sentiment Quotes
It used to be possible to be a global brand by dominating the US market.
Thats changing rapidly. Now you have to be number one in Asia. (Melanie
McShane, strategist at Wolf Olins)
The opportunity is absolutely in India and China, but Ive seen opportunities
all over the world. (Troy Alstead, Starbucks chief nancial ofcer)
India is a very slow market, and unlike China Starbucks probably understand
that here it will take a lot of time. (Pinakiranjan Mishra, head of retail and
consumer goods for India at Ernst & Young)
Starbucks is a symbolic representative of unrened food culture. (Rui
Chenggang, presenter at CCTV)
Starbucks stock is still reasonable in light of the powerful global brand,
growth opportunities and innovation. In other words, the pros outweigh the
cons on the stock. (Tom Taulli, InvestorPlace Writer)
COFFEE INDUSTRY
OVERVIEW
Cofee Industry Overview
(consumption and production)
Steady growth i n worl d producti on,
interspersed with periodic falls
Expansion of niche value markets in
t r adi t i onal cons umi ng count r i es /
Consi derabl e potenti al i n exporti ng
countries (although per capita consumption
levels are still low)/ Growing demand from
emerging markets
Rise in costs of cofee production inputs,
particularly fertilizers and labour
World cofee production by region
Production costs in exporting countries World cofee consumption by market

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Brazilian drought will afect both the
2014-15 and 2015-16 crop seasons
Production has a much weaker
inuence on price than availability or
stocks
Starbucks bias to hedge its cofee
exposure 12-18 months into the future
means the company should benet
from favourable input prices
Seasonal Surplus/ Decit
Supply and demand ratios Cofee price forecasts
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Cofee Industry Overview
(prices and production)
1965-1989 1990-2012
Global Availability/
Consumption
1.81 1.50
World Production/
Consumption
1.02 1.00
World Stocks/
Consumption
0.80 0.50
Competitive Landscape US Restaurant
Brands
COMPANY
CONSIDERATIONS
Key Company Considerations
Starbucks grew revenues in 2013 thanks to growth in comparable-store sales,
openings of 853 new stores and a series of new initiatives.

SBUX increased its performance in existing stores and in the US by designing all
of its bakery, lunch and evening initiatives (wine, beer, and shareable small
plates) to optimise revenues throughout the day.
The company is expanding in new markets: in particular China, India and Korea.

The acquisitions of Teavana and Evolution Fresh expanded Starbucks ofering
beyond ready-to-drink cofee, giving tea (cf. Oprah-branded Chai Tea) and juice
options to customers. Benchmark product quality and price also increased with
its new range of La Boulange products.
The company updated its mobile app platform, enabling customers to pull up
their card by shaking their mobile device and transmit discretionary tips to
servers via smartphone.
The company sits on solid fundamentals. A one-time litigation charge resulted in
negative free cash ow of $1.7 billion; however, minus this charge, growth in free
cash ow would have increased y-o-y.

Share Price Performance vs
Competitors (Last 12 Months)
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Starbucks Dunkin's Brands Krispy Kreme Chipotle
Starbucks Financial Forecasts
EBIT & Margin (14-18)
Prot & Margin (14-18) Sales & Growth (14-18)
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The opening of new stores, diversication of
products on sale, the amelioration of margins
and the average augmentation of products
quality and prices explain the global revenues
growth
Movements in cofee prices imply Starbucks
could realize $350 million+ in cost savings in
FY14 and FY15
Channel Development (Teavana, La Boulange) is
a high-margin wild care for growth.

Key Financial Metrics - Gearing
Starbucks Corp.'s debt-to-equity ratio
deteriorated signicantly from 2012 to
2013, since the company paid $2.76 billion
in litigation charges to settle a dispute
with Kraft over cofee distribution.
This cyclical cash decit was unique and
Starbucks should pay down long-term
debt outstanding during FY14.
Given Starbucks robust gearing position,
there is signicant debt capacity to
reduce cost of capital or deploy through
further acquisitions
Net Debt / EBITDA
Net Debt / (Cash)
-1276
1288
1343
1473
1735
2192
2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
-4.31
0.36
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0.35
2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Headline Operational Metrics
The Americas represent the most important
operating region with 74% of total sales.
In Europe margins were negative due to:
Higher occupancy costs
Less productive stores
Economic uncertainty.
China is now a core market for Starbucks. In
2013, it was a record year for the region, where
they opened 317 stores - with the highest
regional prot margin across all divisions. The
rest of Asia shows much promise including
South Korea and India.
Sales performance
EBIT Margins Opened stores 2012-213

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Acquisition History
Since 1999, SBUX has acquired 7 businesses with $912.3 million total cumulative revenues.
SBUXs strategy has been to gradually expand the product line and gain control of the input costs and
supply chain needed to gain the most prot from that expansion.
This has provided SBUX rapid cost savings and the addition of installed base and channels which has
created signicant cross-sell/up-sell opportunities.
M&A Transaction History
Date Target Description Deal
1999 Tazo Tea tea & herbal tea manufacturer and distributor $8.1m
2003 Seattle Cofee Company specialty cofee retailer and wholesaler based in
Seattle
$72m
2005 Ethos Water brand of bottled water with a social mission of
"helping children get clean water."
$8m
2008 Cofee Equipment
Company
Seattle-based manufacturer of cofee equipment $74.2m
2011 Evolution Fresh American-based company producing fruit juices, fruit
smoothies, gourmet soups, salads and signature
bowls
$30m
2012 Teavana specialty tea and tea accessory retailer based in
Atlanta
$620m
2012 La Boulange French Bakery $100m
TRADE IDEA
Valuation Considerations
To evaluate the fundamental value of Starbucks
shares, I have built a 5-year discounted cash ow
forecast for FY14-18E, incorporating my key
assumptions about the future potential of the
company.

On a DCF basis, the company is intrinsically
valued at $83.7. Starbucks shares are currently
trading on the NASDAQ Capital Market $78.86
per share (6%).

Tax rate 32%
Cost of debt: 4.7%
Long-term growth
rate
1.8%
Cost of equity: 10.5%
WACC: 10.3%
2013 negative free cash ow of $1.7 billion is the result of a one-time litigation
charge. Minus this charge, growth in free cash ow would have increased. So
we should not overweight this factor in the company valuation.

Given (i) industry-leading comp momentum and cash-on-cash returns, (ii)
accelerating U.S. unit growth, (iii) an outsized international opportunity
(particularly China) and (iv) multiple drivers of medium-to-long term CPG
growth that altogether I believe in an OUTPERFORM rating and $84 price
target.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Financial Year (Dec. Year end) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Terminal Period
Total Turnover 14,892 16,338 18,072 19,782 21,575 23,551
growth (%) 9.7% 10.6% 9.5% 9.1% 9.2%

EBIT -325 2,859 3,488 3,956 4,531 5,181
margin (%) -2.2% 17.5% 19.3% 20.0% 21.0% 22.0%

Depreciation & Amortisation 621.4 736.1 792.3 859.4 934.8 1,017.5

Tax @ 32.0% 104.1 (914.9) (1116.1) (1266.1) (1449.9) (1658.0)
Capital Expenditure (1151.2) 980.3 1084.3 1186.9 1294.5 1413.1
Capex/Sales (%) 7.7% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0% -6.0%

Working Capital 0.0 (588.9) (126.4) (109.8) (123.2) (137.5)
Working Capital / Sales (%) 0.0% 3.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

Free Cash Flow 1,551.3 1,111.1 1,953.4 2,253.1 2,598.0 2,990.2 2,990.2

Discount Factor 0.9064 0.8216 0.7447 0.6750 0.6119 0.6119

Terminal Value 35,485

Present Value 1,007.1 1,604.9 1,677.9 1,753.7 1,829.6 21,712
Enterprise Value (m) 65,071
Net Debt as at (Dec 2013) 1299.4
Market Capitalisation (m) 63,771
No. Shares (m) 762
Share Price ($) 83.7



APPENDIX
Starbucks Income Statement
Starbucks Hist. Hist. Hist Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Income Statement 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18
Net Sales 11,700.4 13,299.5 14,892.2 16,337.6 18,072.0 19,782.2 21,575.4 23,551.3
COGS 4,915.5 5,813.3 6,382.3 6,739.3 7,292.1 7,912.9 8,522.3 9,185.0
SG&A 5,056.4 5,488.8 8,835.3 6,739.3 7,292.1 7,912.9 8,522.3 9,185.0
EBIT 1,728.5 1,997.4 (325.4) 2,859.1 3,487.9 3,956.4 4,530.8 5,181.3
Depreciation&Amortization 523.3 550.3 621.4 736.1 792.3 859.4 934.8 1,017.5
Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 2,251.8 2,547.7 296.0 3,595.2 4,280.2 4,815.9 5,465.6 6,198.8
Non-recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest Income 115.9 94.4 123.6 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest Expense (33.3) (32.7) (28.1) 58.2 65.8 70.4 80.2 98.2
Prot before taxes 1,811.1 2,059.1 (229.9) 2,813.8 3,422.1 3,886.0 4,450.6 5,083.1
Taxes 563.1 674.4 (238.7) 1,547.6 1,882.2 2,137.3 2,447.8 2,795.7
Prot after tax 1,248.0 1,384.7 8.8 1,266.2 1,540.0 1,748.7 2,002.8 2,287.4
Net earnings attribut. to nncontr. Interests
2.3 0.9 0.5
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Net income 1,245.7 1,383.8 8.3 1,265.2 1,539.0 1,747.7 2,001.8 2,286.4
Shareholder information
Basic weighted average shares outstanding 748.3 754.4 749.3
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding 769.7 773.0 762.3 770.0 770.0 770.0 770.0 770.0
Diluted earnings per share $1.62 $1.79 $0.01 $1.64 $2.00 $2.27 $2.60 $2.97
Dividends per share $0.56 $0.72 $0.89 $1.11 $1.39 $1.74 $2.17 $2.72
Dividends 419.0 543.2 666.9 856.6 1,070.8 1,338.5 1,673.1 2,091.4
Starbucks Balance Sheet
Starbucks Hist. Hist. Hist. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Balance Sheet 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents 1,148.1 1,188.6 2,575.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sales, maturities and calls
Accounts receivable 386.5 485.9 561.4 571.8 632.5 692.4 755.1 824.3
Inventories 965.8 1,241.5 1,111.2 1,179.4 1,276.1 1,384.8 1,491.4 1,607.4
Other current assets 1,294.5 1,283.6 1,223.1 1,633.8 1,807.2 1,978.2 2,157.5 2,355.1
Total current assets 3,794.9 4,199.6 5,471.4 3,384.9 3,715.8 4,055.4 4,404.1 4,786.8
Non-current assets
Net PP&E 2,355.0 2,658.9 3,200.5 3,444.6 3,736.7 4,064.2 4,423.9 4,819.5
Goodwill 321.6 399.1 862.9 862.9 862.9 862.9 862.9 862.9
Other intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other assets 888.9 961.6 1,981.9 1,470.4 1,626.5 1,780.4 1,941.8 2,119.6
Total assets 7,360.4 8,219.2 11,516.7 9,162.9 9,941.9 10,762.8 11,632.7 12,588.8
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Short term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,288.4 1,342.7 1,473.4 1,735.3 2,192.0
Accounts payable and accruals 2,075.8 2,209.8 2,593.2 2,493.5 2,698.1 2,927.8 3,153.2 3,398.4
Accrued litigation charge 0.0 0.0 2,784.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total current liabilities 2,075.8 2,209.8 5,377.3 3,782.0 4,040.8 4,401.2 4,888.6 5,590.4
Non-current liabilities
Total long-term debt 549.5 549.6 1,299.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other long-term liabilities 347.8 345.3 357.7 490.1 542.2 593.5 647.3 706.5
Total liabilities 2,973.1 3,104.7 7,034.4 4,272.1 4,583.0 4,994.7 5,535.9 6,296.9
Equity
Common stock 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Retained earnings 4,297.4 5,046.2 4,130.3 4,538.9 5,007.0 5,416.3 5,745.0 5,940.0
Treasury stock 86.8 62.1 349.1 349.1 349.1 349.1 349.1 349.1
Noncontrolling interests 2.4 5.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Total equity 4,387.3 5,114.5 4,482.3 4,890.8 5,358.9 5,768.2 6,096.9 6,291.9
Total Liab.& Equity 7,360.4 8,219.2 11,516.7 9,162.9 9,941.9 10,762.8 11,632.7 12,588.8
Balance? OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
Starbucks Cash Flow Statement
Starbucks Hist. Hist. Hist. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Cash Flow Statement 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18
Net Income 1248.0 1384.7 8.8 1265.2 1539.0 1747.7 2001.8 2286.4
Depreciation 550.0 580.6 655.6 736.1 792.3 859.4 934.8 1017.5
Amortisation 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in OWC 166.4 189.0 (1016.9) (3373.0) (126.4) (109.8) (123.2) (137.5)
Change in other assets -306.0 -488.5 249.2 511.5 (156.1) (153.9) (161.4) (177.8)
Change in other liabilities -46.0 84.5 227.5 132.4 52.0 51.3 53.8 59.3
Litigation charge 0.0 0.0 2784.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash from Operating Activities 1612.4 1750.3 2908.3 -727.8 2100.8 2394.7 2705.7 3047.8
Sales, maturities and calls of investments 430.0 1796.4 1040.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capex 531.9 856.2 1151.2 980.3 1084.3 1186.9 1294.5 1413.1
Others 1027.6 1914.2 1300.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash from Investing Activities -1989.5 -4566.8 -3491.6 -980.3 -1084.3 -1186.9 -1294.5 -1413.1
Change in Common Stock -305.5 -312.5 -340.9 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends -389.5 (513.0) (628.9) (856.6) (1070.8) (1338.5) (1673.1) (2091.4)
Long Term Debt Repayment 0.0 0.0 714.5 (1299.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 87.0 80.0 147.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in Non Controlling Int. 3.1 (3.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash from Financing Activities (608.0) (742.4) (111.6) (2156.1) (1070.8) (1338.5) (1673.1) (2091.4)
Efect of exchange rate -0.8 9.7 -1.8 0 0 0 0 0
Net Cash Flow -985.9 -3549.2 -696.7 (3864.1) (54.3) (130.7) (261.9) (456.6)
Beginning Cash 1164 1148.1 1188.6 2575.7 (1288.4) (1342.7) (1473.4) (1735.3)
Ending Cash 1148.1 1188.6 2575.7 (1288.4) (1342.7) (1473.4) (1735.3) (2192.0)
Starbucks Financial Assumptions
Hist. Hist. Hist. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-16 31-Dec-17 31-Dec-18
Sales growth
13.7% 12.0% 9.7% 10.6% 9.5% 9.1% 9.2%
COGS as % of sales
54.5% 43.7% 42.9% 41.3% 40.4% 40.0% 39.5% 39.0%
Annual depr. as % of previous PPE
23.4% 23.4% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
SG&A as % of sales
43.2% 41.3% 59.3% 41.3% 40.4% 40.0% 39.5% 39.0%
Amortization of other intangibles amount
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-recurring items amount
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Efective tax rate
31.1% 32.8% 103.8% 55.0% 55% 55% 55% 55%
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding
769.7 773.0 762.3 770 770 770 770 770
Dividend per share growth rate
28.6% 23.6% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Accounts receivable as % of sales
3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
Inventories % of COGS
15.1% 21.4% 17.4% 17.50% 17.50% 17.50% 17.50% 17.50%
Other current assets % of sales
11.1% 9.7% 8.2% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Capital expenditures % of sales
4.5% 6.4% 7.7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Other assets % of sales
7.6% 7.2% 13.3% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Accounts payable and accruals % of COGS
32.5% 38.0% 40.6% 37% 37% 37% 37% 37%
Accrued litigation charge % of tax expense
0.0% 0.0% (1166.4%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other long-term liabilities % of sales
3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Common stock amount
0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Share repurchases $ amount (show as positive)
24.7 (287.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loans due for repayment
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other long-term debt repayment
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Short term debt
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Loans due for repayment
4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
Other long-term debt repayment
4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
Cash
1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Starbucks Revenue Forecasts
Operating Prot (EBIT) Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EBIT 1728.5 1997.4 -325.4 2331 2720 2987 3056 3252
EBIT Margin (%) 15% 15% -2% 18% 19% 20% 21.00% 22.00%
EBIT Growth (%) 16% -116% -816% 17% 10% 2% 6%
FINAL REVENUES
FORECAST
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Americas 10,532 11,006 11,501 12,019 12,560
EMEA 1,183 1,207 1,231 1,256 1,281
CAP 1,100 1,320 1,585 1,901 2,282
Other 504 562 620 906 993
Channel 3,018 3,976 4,845 5,493 6,436
Total 16,338 18,072 19,782 21,575 23,551
Starbucks Operating Assumptions


Opened stores
Stores open as of
sept 30, 2012
Opened Closed Net
Stores open as of
sept 29, 2013
Americas
7802 319 -43 276 8078
EMEA
882 34 -63 -29 853
CAP
666 252 -12 240 906
Other segments
14 353 -10 343 357
Worldwide
9364 958 -128 830 10194
Revenues growth
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Americas
8% 8% -10% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%
EMEA
3% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
CAP
22% 15% 27% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Consolidated
8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%



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