Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 22 September 2014

Political and security risk updates


These briefings are produced by Bradburys Global Risk Partners in collaboration
ith Open Briefing.
Africa: !ibyan parliament re"ects prime minister#s ne cabinet as conflict idens to
key institutions$
Aericas: %&ulture funds# increase pressure on 'rgentina amid unresol(ed
so(ereign debt case$
Asia and Pacific: )hina and *ndia sign multiple trade and in(estment agreements
despite ongoing border conflict$
!urope: +kraine signs association deal ith ,uropean +nion and grants limited self-
go(ernance to separatist regions$
"iddle !ast: +.-brokered peace deal announced beteen /emen0s ri(al Shi0ite
1outhis and Sunni-led go(ernment$
Polar regions: 2ussian fighter "ets and bombers enter +S air defence identification
3one off 'laska$
'frica
#ibyan parliaent re$ects prie inister%s new cabinet as conflict widens to key
institutions
On 14 September5 !ibya0s elected parliament re"ected the ne 16-member cabinet
named the pre(ious day by Prime 7inister 'bdullah al-Thinni after eeks of
deliberations o(er the country#s political future$ The 1ouse of 2epresentati(es
ordered the prime minister to put forard a cabinet of 10 members or less$ The
re"ection further eakens al-Thinni#s position after his go(ernment as forced to
flee from Tripoli hen rebels sei3ed the capital last month$
Three years after the o(erthro of 7uammar 8addafi5 !ibya is dominated by
fighting di(ided along se(eral tribal5 ideological and geographical lines$ 'l-Thinni5
acting prime minister since 7arch 20145 originally stood don folloing elections in
9une5 but as reappointed by the ne parliament in early September$ 1oe(er5 no
orking from the eastern city of Tobruk5 his go(ernment has failed to impose order$
)lashes beteen armed groups ha(e incapacitated operations at the country#s
largest refinery in :aiya5 in addition to the ,l Sharara oil field in the 7ur3u; <esert$
The shutdon is a huge issue for the !ibyan go(ernment5 as the facilities supply fuel
commodities to the capital and the rest of estern !ibya$
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)oncerns o(er !ibya0s future and the risk of further fighting beteen rebels are hitting the country0s
economic life5 "ust as the !ibyan oil industry began to re(i(e o(er the course of the summer after ma"or
eastern oil ports reopened folloing the end of a rebel blockade$ The di(isions are no threatening to
reach the country0s central bank5 after the 1ouse of 2epresentati(es dismissed its go(ernor o(er
allegations that he as siding ith the ri(al assembly5 8eneral .ational )ongress5 re-established by an
alliance led from 7israta in northest !ibya$ The conflict is increasingly idening to !ibya0s key
institutions5 causing greater instability and posing risks to the country0s long-term cohesion$
Other de'elopents
(e'en doctors and $ournalists supporting an !bola awareness capaign were found dead in the
)*+r+kor+ region of southeast Guinea. They had been reported missing on 16 September folloing an
attack by local residents ho belie(ed that the campaigners ere intent on spreading the deadly (irus as
opposed to creating aareness$ 2ural areas of the country5 particularly the 8uin=e >oresti?re region5
continue to oppose the go(ernment#s efforts to combat and raise aareness of the (irus5 and often meet
aid orkers and campaigners ith hostility and distrust$ The recent killings follo an attack on 24 'ugust
on medical orkers ho had been deployed to a local market area to spray chemical sanitiser to pre(ent
the spread of the (irus$ *n its first emergency meeting on a public health crisis5 the +. Security )ouncil
declared the ,bola outbreak in @est 'frica a threat to peace and security$ Secretary-8eneral Ban Ai-moon
announced that the +. ill deploy a 7ission for ,bola ,mergency 2esponse B+.7,,2C to stop the
outbreak5 treat those infected and preser(e stability in the affected countries$ The international
organisation called for a 20-fold increase in assistance5 ith critical needs totalling almost D1 billion$
On 1, (epteber- "uhaed .brahi- assistant chief of township di'ision of the !ast district of
"andera- /enya- died fro in$uries he recei'ed when attackers fired shots and threw hand grenades
as he arri'ed back at his residence in the e'ening. .o entity has yet claimed responsibility$ 8o(ernor 'li
2oba speculated that the attack could not be blamed on clan fighting5 as the assistant chief did not come
from either of the clans that ha(e been fighting in 7andera$ *t is thought that the attackers are likely
members of the al-Shabaab *slamist eEtremist group5 hich has targeted officials in similar attacks in
7andera$
On the radar
The 0)1- 02P( and "P1R opposition parties plan to rally on &, (epteber in /inshasa- the
capital of <emocratic 2epublic of the )ongo$
On &3 (epteber- a fraework report is due on peace- security and cooperation in the
2eocratic Republic of 1ongo- together ith a report on the stabilisation mission in the country
B7O.+S)OC$
Tensions are rising between Botswana4s go'ernent and 1hinese businesses o'er large
building pro$ects as the election campaign heats up$
A new food crisis is looing in (oalia for 156-666 people displaced by the continuing
fighting beteen go(ernment forces5 supported by 'frican +nion forces5 and al-Shabaab
militants$

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'mericas
78ulture funds% increase pressure on Argentina aid unresol'ed so'ereign debt case
The 'rgentine pesos reached an alarming lo point on 1F September5 as it plunged against the +S dollar
in the country#s informal eEchange market5 pushed by rate speculation$ The dramatic depreciation of the
national currency in the black market as triggered by reneed concerns o(er the sol(ency of the
'rgentine state amid the unresol(ed legal dispute beteen the go(ernment and ,lliott 7anagement
)orporation5 a hedge fund that specialises in speculation on distressed debt$ The so-called %(ulture funds#
ha(e pursued the 'rgentine go(ernment in +S courts for o(er a decade to claim for full repayment on
purchased defaulted debt in 2001$ *n a ruling earlier this year5 the funds succeeded in blocking interest
payments on 'rgentine bonds abroad until they recei(e full compensation for their share of the purchased
debt5 pushing the country into a technical default$ 1oe(er5 'rgentine President )ristina >ernGnde3 de
Airchner has staunchly refused to compromise ith the %(ultures#5 and so the funds use other means to
pressure the go(ernment into complying ith the ruling$ To that end5 ,lliott 7anagement )orporation has
notably contracted 'lbright Stonebridge 8roup5 a consulting group led by former +S Secretary of State
7adeleine 'lbright5 former .ational Security 'd(isor Samuel Berger and former )ommerce Secretary
)arlos 8utierre35 to negotiate ith the go(ernment$
The increased pressure applied by the hedge funds on the 'rgentine state has radicalised the
go(ernment#s discourse$ This as recently highlighted in the threats issued by 'rgentine#s foreign
minister5 1=ctor Timerman5 against the current +S interim ambassador to 'rgentina5 Ae(in Sulli(an5 after
the +S diplomat arned o(er the negati(e potential conse;uences of not respecting the latest legal
ruling$ O(er the past year5 >ernGnde3#s political party5 the >ront for &ictory B>P&C5 has increasingly turned
the 'rgentine legal dispute ith the %(ulture funds# into a political struggle to bolster its support base$ 's
a result5 >ernGnde3#s appro(al rating has surged in recent months in spite of the country#s poor economic
performance and the problem of rampant inflation$ >urthermore5 the radicalisation of the go(ernment#s
populist rhetoric has strengthened the country#s atypical presidential system5 hich is underscored by the
influence eEerted by >ernGnde3 and her family$ 's such5 for the (ery first time5 on 1H September5
>ernGnde3#s son5 7aEimo Airchner5 ga(e a public speech in the capital5 Buenos 'ires5 before 405000
supporters of !a )Gmpora I a radical political youth organisation affiliated ith the >P&$
The ongoing legal dispute constitutes a lucrati(e political platform for >ernGnde3$ The increasing pressure
eEerted by the hedge funds has therefore resulted in the go(ernment adopting a more radical posture
instead of a more conciliatory one$ >olloing the 'rgentine congress appro(al of a ne >oreign <ebt
Payment Bill on 14 September5 a ne la ill enter into force that ould technically allo the
go(ernment to pay its foreign-currency denominated bonds locally or in >rance$ 1oe(er5 it is unlikely
that such la ould comply ith the +S ruling5 and seems to ser(e a more political purpose$

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Other de'elopents
On 1, (epteber- a arch organised by !cuador%s largest union- the 0nited :ront of ;orkers- ended
with clashes between protesters and police in the streets of the capital- <uito$ The march mobilised
indigenous peoples5 students and pensioners in protests against se(eral labour policies promoted by
President 2afael )orrea#s go(ernment$ The protests represent one of the greatest public demonstrations
under the )orrea go(ernment in years$ On 1J September5 further clashes ere reported5 and some union
leaders threatened to organise a nationide strike$
A=uiles G>e* "art?ne*- one of the brothers of (er'ando G>e*- leader of the /nights Teplar%s
drug cartel- was found dead on 1@ (epteber at his pri(ate residence in !G3aro )Grdenas5 7ichoacGn
state5 7eEico$ 7artine3 as found dead ith a gunshot ound to the mouth in a suspected suicide5
though authorities ha(e commenced an in(estigation$ The Anights Templar#s is a 7eEican drug cartel that
has taken hold in the 7ichoacGn region o(er the past decade$ 1oe(er5 since 20125 local ci(il militias ha(e
fought back against the cartel5 and succeeded in occupying its stronghold5 'pat3ingGn$ *n 20145 the
go(ernment of President ,nri;ue PeKa .ieto agreed to legalise most ci(il militias as %rural guards#$ *n spite
of se(eral setbacks5 the Anights Templar continues to control se(eral (illages in the region5 and their
leader 8Lme3 remains at large$
2o*ens of people were arrested during the e'iction of people fro an occupied building in Bra*il%s
econoic centre- (Ao Paulo- on 13 (epteber. The e(iction from an old hotel hosting o(er 200 families
turned (iolent as police officers clashed ith the e(icted inhabitants in the centre of the city$ The police
ha(e been accused of using eEcessi(e force5 but the criticism has so far been re"ected by the head of the
operation$ The lack of affordable housing in SMo Paulo has become a se(ere problem in recent years5 ith
groups claiming the occupation of abandoned buildings is in response to the housing crisis$
On the radar
0ruguay%s general election is scheduled for &3 October.
8ene*uelan go'ernent has eBtended the night closure of its border with 1olobia for an
additional three months$
Peru4s regional and unicipal elections are on C October.
1ustos staff in Argentina are to strike between &9 and &D (epteber. Operations at border
crossing and airports to be affected$

Open Briefing | C
'sia and Pacific
1hina and .ndia sign ultiple trade and in'estent agreeents despite ongoing border conflict
)hinese President Ni 9inping arri(ed in 'hmedabad5 *ndia5 on 1F September5 beginning his three-day (isit
ith *ndian Prime 7inister .arendra 7odi$ <uring the meetings in <elhi and 'hmedabad5 the to leaders
signed at least 12 agreements on bilateral in(estment and trade$ One of the deals included D20 billion
)hinese in(estment in *ndian infrastructure pro"ects o(er the neEt fi(e years5 hich ill largely address
*ndia#s outdated railay system$ *n addition5 )hina also agreed to help *ndia establish industrial parks in
8u"arat and 7aharashtra$ The to leaders also discussed "oint space eEploration and ci(il nuclear
cooperation$ ,arlier this month5 9apan also eEpressed interest in accelerating nuclear cooperation ith
*ndia$ )hina and *ndia "oin the +nited States5 >rance5 and 2ussia in pursuit of in(estment in *ndia#s nuclear
energy sector$ ,arlier this month5 *ndia finalised a deal ith 'ustralia to purchase increased ;uantities of
uranium fuel$
@hilst Ni and 7odi ere engaged in negotiations5 tensions remained high in the northeastern region of
*ndia-controlled Aashmir$ >rom October to .o(ember 1J625 *ndia and )hina fought a brief border ar in
the region$ 'lthough the )hinese on control o(er the 'ksai )hin5 the region remains contested$ *ndian
media ha(e recently been reporting on alleged incursions into *ndian-claimed territory$ On 10 September5
*ndian soldiers and members of the *ndo-Tibetan Border Police reported that at least 200 )hinese People#s
!iberation 'rmy soldiers and at least 12 hea(y-duty (ehicles and construction e;uipment entered *ndian
territory$ They reportedly ere constructing a temporary road5 about to kilometres in length$ *ndian
troops reportedly confronted the )hinese soldiers5 but the incident did not lead to (iolence$ *ndian troops
reportedly later destroyed the )hinese-built road$
*n addition to the ele(ated tensions on the disputed *ndia-)hina border5 the *ndian president5 Pranab
7ukher"ee5 signed se(eral deals in 1anoi5 &ietnam5 ith &ietnamese President Truong Tan Sang$ The deals
included defence procurement5 air transportation and5 most notably5 oil and gas eEploration$ The to
parties signed a letter of intent for a "oint (enture beteen state oil companies O.8) &idesh and Petro
&ietnam to begin eEploration and de(elopment of to oil blocks off &ietnam#s coast$ )hinese officials
ha(e stated that they do not recognise the deal5 as it takes place in hat )hina considers its territorial
aters$ <espite recent de(elopments5 it is (ery unlikely that such conflict ill disrupt economic relations
beteen )hina and *ndia$ The to leaders acknoledged the need to resol(e border disputes and further
deepen economic relations$ 2elations ith *ndia are an important part of )hina#s international strategy in
the 'sia-Pacific5 and such disagreements regarding the line of control in the disputed territory are unlikely
to derail ma"or in(estment deals$

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Other de'elopents
The 0( (enate ared ser'ices coittee released a report on 1, (epteber accusing 1hinese
hackers of penetrating the 0( Transportation 1oand ETRA)(1O"F ser'er network on at least &6
occasions. T2'.S)O7 is the unified command that manages the global transportation of +S military
e;uipment and personnel$ 'mong the more serious hacking incidents5 one reportedly resulted in the loss
of sensiti(e military documents5 flight plans and the login information of numerous employees and
contractors$ 'll of the attacks are belie(ed to ha(e been affiliated ith the )hinese military$ The ma"ority
of the attacks targeted systems operated by contracted go(ernment employees5 likely ith less
sophisticated defence systems against digital attacks$ *n 7ay 20145 the +S "ustice department indicted fi(e
People#s !iberation 'rmy employees on charges of hacking into computers operated by se(eral large +S
companies$ <espite the report#s findings5 such attacks at the present le(el of se(erity are unlikely to
significantly alter +S-)hina relations$
Australian police arrested 1C suspected terrorists in (ydney on 1D (epteber. 'ustralian authorities
reported that more than 400 officers participated in o(er 20 raids5 hich led to the arrests of se(eral
indi(iduals allegedly affiliated ith the *slamic State B*SC$ 'ccording to 'ustralian intelligence5 the suspects
had been planning to carry out acts of terrorism in 'ustralia5 including the abduction and beheading of
members of the public$ 't least one of the 1O arrested has already been charged ith terrorism offences$
'uthorities also conducted searches in Brisbane$ ,arlier in September 20145 to indi(iduals ere arrested
in Brisbane and accused of allegedly recruiting and pro(iding financial backing to terrorist groups
operating in Syria$ 'dditionally5 'ustralia has recently5 for the first time since 200H5 ele(ated its terror
alert le(el to high$ 'ustralia has agreed to send military forces to "oin a groing international coalition to
counter the *slamic State$ On 22 September5 the *slamic State released a (ideo in hich their spokesman
7uhammad al-'dnani urged *S folloers to kill ci(ilians in the @est5 including 'ustralia$
"alaysian authorities ha'e tightened security easures after four 1hinese 0ighurs were arrested in
.ndonesia on 1D (epteber. The indi(iduals arrested are suspected of maintaining links to the *slamic
State and the ,ast Turkmenistan *slamic 7o(ement$ The indi(iduals reportedly tra(elled through 7alaysia
using fraudulent Turkish passports purchased in Thailand$ ' specialised di(ision of the *ndonesian police
arrested se(en indi(iduals on suspected terrorist acti(ities in Poso5 *ndonesia$ ' local source indicated that
the suspects ere likely planning to "oin a terrorist organisation in Sulaesi$ This region is reportedly
home to a number of radical groups ith links to the *slamic State$ *t is belie(ed that approEimately 100
*ndonesians and beteen O0 and 100 )hinese indi(iduals are in Syria and *ra; fighting for *S$
On the radar
Thailand%s finance inistry is eBpected to un'eil a new far subsidy schee neEt month$
"ebers of Gapan%s ruling party- the #iberal 2eocratic Party- are eBpected to engage in
bilateral talks with ebers of the 1hinese go'ernent as early as October$
Pakistan is eBpected to nae the new head of its intelligence ser'ice- the .nterH(er'ices
.ntelligence E.(.F- this eek$
Gapanese and 0( trade officials will eet this week to discuss the Trans-Pacific Partnership and
eEpanding bilateral trade$
Open Briefing | ,
,urope
0kraine signs association deal with !uropean 0nion and grants liited selfHgo'ernance to separatist
regions
On 16 September5 the +krainian and ,uropean parliaments ratified the ,+ association deal I a political and
economic agreement beteen +kraine and ,+ member states$ 1oe(er5 folloing pressure from 2ussia5
+kraine and the ,uropean +nion agreed to delay applying free-trade rules$ The +krainian parliament also
appro(ed a la that grants special status to separatists regions in eastern +kraine5 including !ugansk and
<onetsk$ +nder the ne la5 the separatist regions ill ha(e limited self-rule for a three-year period$
+krainian deputies also passed a second la that offers amnesty to rebels ho ha(e fought against
+krainian forces in recent months$ Separately5 +krainian President Petro Poroshenko (isited the +nited
States5 and called for additional military assistance from the @est during a "oint session of the +S
)ongress$
The association agreement recently signed ith the ,+ as the same deal that the former +krainian
president5 &iktor /anuko(ich5 pulled out from signing in .o(ember 201H I the act that set off +kraine#s
current crisis$ 1oe(er5 last eek5 the ,+ and +kraine agreed to postpone the key part of the association
agreement I the loering of trade barriers beteen +kraine and ,+ member states I until early 2016$ The
decision as made folloing threats by the Aremlin that 2ussia ould block +krainian imports if the free-
trade rules ere applied$ 2ussia is concerned because by signing the free-trade rules +kraine ould be
pulled out of the ,urasian ,conomic +nion I an economic union5 beteen 2ussia5 Belarus5 Aa3akhstan and
'rmenia5 built to ri(al the ,uropean +nion$
Aie( is seeking to appease the rebels in order to ensure that the ceasefire in eastern +kraine continues to
hold$ 'lthough the ceasefire has held since O September5 both sides ha(e (iolated the peace plan5 and on
1O September5 four ci(ilians ere killed during clashes beteen go(ernment forces and rebels$ 1oe(er5
calls from Poroshenko to +S )ongressmen that +kraine needs military assistance5 rather than the non-
lethal e;uipment that President Barack Obama has so far committed to5 indicate that Aie( may be
anticipating a potential end to the ceasefire$ There is also additional concern in the @est that 2ussia may
be looking to further inter(ene in the country5 after President &ladimir Putin allegedly threatened
Poroshenko that 2ussia could send troops to Aie( in to days$ 1oe(er5 it is unlikely that the comments
ha(e any substance5 as Putin is also rumoured to ha(e mentioned in(asion of 2iga5 &ilnius5 Tallinn5 @arsa
and Bucharest I all capitals of .'TO-member countries$
Other de'elopents
On 1, (epteber- the (wedish (ocial 2eocrats called for centreHright parties to $oin together to
pre'ent the farHright (weden 2eocrats fro forcing a new election. The Social <emocrats fell short
of inning a ma"ority in the recent elections5 inning 4H$FP of the (ote$ The far-right and anti-immigrant
Seden <emocrats on 1HP of the (ote I a sufficient amount to block the passing of the go(ernment#s
budget$ The leader of Seden <emocrats5 9immie 'kesson5 reported that the party as considering
supporting an alternati(e budget to the one proposed by the go(ernment$ 'll Sedish parliamentary
parties ha(e ruled out orking ith the Seden <emocrats$ 1oe(er5 traditionally all parliamentary
parties submit a budget to parliament5 and so far the outgoing four-party 'lliance5 hich had been in
poer for the last eight years5 has insisted that it ill be submitting its on budget$
Open Briefing | D
Russia%s in'estigati'e coittee placed the billionaire 8ladiir Ie'tushenko' under house arrest on
13 (epteber folloing the committee#s announcement that /e(tushenko( as under in(estigation for
money-laundering$ /e(tushenko( is the ma"ority shareholder and chairman of the '>A Sistema
conglomerate5 hich ons 2ussia#s largest mobile operator5 7TS5 and a controlling stake in oil company
Bashneft$ On 1F September5 folloing the announcement of /e(tushenko(#s arrest5 shares in Sistema fell
by 1FP$ /e(tushenko( as released from house arrest after three days$ The committee reports directly to
2ussian President &ladimir Putin5 and it is possible that /e(tushenko is being targeted5 as the state-oned
oil company 2osneft is seeking to gain control of Bashneft$ 'nother possibility is that /e(tushenko( is
being made an eEample of as a arning to other oligarchs unhappy ith Putin because of the economic
impact of @estern sanctions folloing 2ussia#s anneEation of )rimea and in(ol(ement in eastern +kraine$
On 1, (epteber- /oso'an authorities arrested 1C indi'iduals during an operation targeting
ebers of the .slaic (tate. !ocal media reported that se(eral imams had been detained5 including the
head of the 8rand 7os;ue in Pristina$ 'uthorities carried out the operations in Pristina5 Pri3ren and the
flashpoint ton 7itro(ica$ 'uthorities reported that the arrests had been made folloing threats5 and
declined to publish the names of those arrested citing national security$
On the radar
0( (ecretary of 1oerce Penny Prit*ker will 'isit 0kraine this week to discuss reforms to
stabilise +kraine#s economy and attract in(estment$
Polish President Bronislaw /oorowski will 'isit the 0nited )ations in )ew Iork neEt eek$
Air :rance pilots affiliated to the (PA: and ()P# unions to eBtend their strike until 26
September$
7iddle ,ast
0)Hbrokered peace deal announced between Ieen4s ri'al (hi4ite Jouthis and (unniHled go'ernent
' +.-brokered peace deal beteen /emen#s 1outhis and the Sunni-led go(ernment as announced on 20
September$ The truce has been agreed folloing the escalation of (iolence ithin the country in recent
eeks I the orst seen since authoritarian ruler 'li 'bdullah Saleh as deposed in 2012$ 1outhi rebels5
based in the country0s north5 ha(e ad(anced their control of strategic tons leading to the capital5 Sanaa5
here protests ha(e raged for the past se(eral months$ )lashes beteen 1outhi and /emeni armed forces
ha(e increased5 resulting in the deaths of hundreds$ The +.-brokered agreement has been reached
folloing the re"ection of a number of go(ernmental o(ertures proposed by President 'bdrabuh 7ansur
1adi in the hope of restoring stability to the hea(ily-troubled state$
Politically5 the challenge remains to balance the demands of the 1outhi hile maintaining the country0s
democratic transition$ The terms of the agreement are set to include formal representation of 1outhi
ithin the go(ernment0s structure5 potentially destabilising the south$ Southern /emen has embarked
upon a sustained campaign of separatism against the state since its integration under Saleh in 1JJ45 and
harbours many members of al-Qaeda in the 'rabian Peninsula$ 7oreo(er5 folloing the reinstatement of
fuel subsidies earlier in the month5 it remains unclear ho long the impo(erished country ill be able to
financially accommodate the demands of the 1outhi and their domestic sympathisers$

Open Briefing | @
<ue to the economic picture ithin the country5 the state remains hea(ily dependent on o(erseas
in(estment and foreign aidR hoe(er5 the security situation is likely to bring about a reduction in foreign
in(ol(ement$ >urthermore5 the +nited .ations5 hile acti(ely supporting 1adi0s transition5 is unlikely to
increase any financial support to the go(ernment hile opposition rebel groups remain armed$
)on(ersely5 the disarmament of the 1outhi is unlikely to take place ithout the go(ernment first
implementing tangible de(elopments in aarding both political and economic concessions$ 's such5 the
agreement remains fragile5 and (iolence is likely to continue$
Other de'elopents
A roadHside bob killed siB security officials in !gypt4s (inai Peninsula on 13 (epteber. @hilst no
group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack5 Sinai has been a hotbed for *slamic militant groups
supporti(e of the imprisoned former president 7ohammed 7orsi$ The al-Qaeda affiliated 'nsar Beit al-
7a;dis has claimed responsibility for similar attacks against state officials ithin the pro(ince in reprisal
for crackdons on 7orsi supporters$ O(er 15400 people ha(e been left dead folloing the targeting of
groups in the resti(e region in the last year$ 'l-7a;dis militants ha(e been identified among some of the
dead fighting alongside the *slamic States in conflicts in Syria and *ra;$
Afghanistan4s presidential candidates signed a powerHsharing deal on &6 (epteber- ending onths
of political deadHlock. 'shraf 8hani ill be named the country0s president in a ceremony due to take
place this eek$ 2i(al candidate 'bdullah 'bdullah ill either become or ill nominate a chief eEecuti(e
officer ith poers similar to those of prime minister5 as ell as appointing senior positions on terms of
%parity# ith 8hani$ Significantly5 hoe(er5 the results of the electoral commission0s ballot re-count are yet
to be announced5 and the eEact eEtent of 8hani0s support base remains unknon$ @hile the +nited States
has heralded the poer-sharing deal a success for the country5 ithin 'fghanistan the latest appointment
is likely to itness greater disillusionment at the country#s democratic capacity$
The .slaic (tate released 9@ Turkish hostages in .ra= on &6 (epteber- including of a nuber of
diploatic workers and their failies. The hostages had been held capti(e by *S militants ithin
northern *ra; o(er the past three months$ The terms of their release ha(e not been announcedR hoe(er5
Turkish Prime 7inister 'hmet <a(utoglu has stated that no ransom had been paid and the hostages ere
released thanks to a state-led intelligence operation$ Turkey has been reluctant in recent months to "oin
the international coalitions against *S I a position idely speculated to be reflecti(e of the large number
of Turkish hostages held by the group$ 1oe(er5 ith the latest hostage release5 pressure is likely to
mount on Turkey to become a base from hich to launch counter-offensi(es against the *slamic State$
On the radar
.ranian nuclear talks to continue in )ew Iork- ith a proposed deadline for complete
agreement on 24 .o(ember$
(econd round of ceasefire talks eBpected to take place between .srael and :atah and Jaas
in )airo on 24 September$
(epteber Re'olution 2ay in Ieen on &3 (epteber presents an increased risk of terroris
and protest acti'ity.
)ational .ra=i 2ay to be celebrated on 5 October presents increased risk of terrorist acti'ity.
Open Briefing | 16
Polar regions
Russian fighter $ets and bobers enter 0( air defence identification *one off Alaska
SiE 2ussian military planes ere identified and intercepted by to 'laska-based >-22 +S fighter "ets on 1F
September after entering the +S 'ir <efence *dentification :one B'<*:C "ust est of 'laska$ The 2ussian
planes included to fighter "ets5 to long-range bombers and to refuelling planes$ The folloing day5
to 2ussian long-range bombers ere intercepted by )anadian fighter "ets after entering the )anadian
'<*:$ The aerial interceptions ere confirmed by the .orth 'merican 'erospace <efence )ommand
B.O2'<C and +S .orthern )ommand B.O2T1)O7C$
The e(ents illustrate a common occurrence in the region5 ith .O2'< spokesperson !ieutenant )olonel
7ichael 9a3dyk stating that o(er O0 similar interceptions ha(e occurred o(er the past fi(e years$ @hilst
common5 the actions are being taken seriously by .O2'< and .O2T1)O75 especially in light of the fact
that all &igilant ,agle training eEercises beteen 2ussia and .O2'< ere cancelled earlier this month
because of 2ussian actions in +kraine$ +ndoubtedly 2ussian pro(ocations such as these ill garner an
increased amount of attention from military and political officials in the @est5 as ell as the general
public5 due to the current tensions beteen the to parties$
@ith political hostilities still running high5 future actions such as these could easily result in accidents and
miscalculations5 or e(en confrontation beteen 2ussia and .O2'<$ @ithout the ade;uate de-escalation
of hostilities beteen the @est and 2ussia5 military eEercises should be considered as incredibly high risk
due to the (olatile potential of armed aerial interception$
Other de'elopents
The :innish go'ernent has appro'ed plans for a new RussianHdesigned nuclear power plant.
Pro(ided the final appro(al from parliament is secured5 PyhS"oki poer plant is to be built south of Oulu in
northern >inland after the >innish coalition go(ernment appro(ed its plans$ The poer plant has caused
ma"or contro(ersy due to concerns o(er the safety of nuclear poer and political hostilities ith 2ussia5
eEasperated by >inland#s proEimity to 2ussia$ The decision comes only eeks after the >innish
en(ironment minister5 &ille .iinistT5 declared that further energy cooperation ith 2ussia ould be a %step
back# gi(en the importance of reducing energy dependence on 2ussia$
1ountries ha'e agreed to increased scrutiny o'er Gapanese whaling in the (outhern Ocean. '
resolution proposed by .e :ealand at an *nternational @haling )ommission B*@)C meeting on 14
September as passed HO (otes to 20$ The resolution maintains that5 in accordance ith findings declared
earlier in the year by the *nternational )ourt of 9ustice5 %special permits# for scientific research must be
able to "ustify the necessity of killing hales as part of the research$ 9apanese haling in the 'ntarctic
remains a contro(ersial matter5 ith 9apanese intentions to resume haling in the 201O-16 season
amplifying the tensions$

Open Briefing | 11
The 'iceHpresident of Russian stateHowned oil copany Rosneft clais that the copany is capable
of continuing with its Arctic drilling abitions without !BBon"obil. <uring the *nternational
*n(estment >orum 2014 held in Sochi5 2ussia5 o(er the eekend5 2osneft#s state secretary-(ice president5
!arisa Aalanda5 maintained that 2osneft plans to continue orking alone on its Aara Sea drilling pro"ect5
originally embarked upon ith ,EEon7obil as a partner$ 's ,EEon7obil has been forced to cease
operations ith 2osneft in the 'rctic due to sanctions by the +S go(ernment5 2osneft#s future on the
pro"ect had been unclear$
On the radar
The Arctic 1ouncil%s eergency pre'ention- preparedness and response E!PPRF conference to
take place in Arkhangelsk- Russia- beteen 2H and 2O September$


Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www.bradburys.co.uk


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