Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690

Geography: Nevada Sponsor:

Data Collected: 09/29/2014 - 10/01/2014 Las Vegas Review-Journal ()
Release Date: 10/02/2014
Percentages
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690 - Page 1 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com
In NV, One Month To 2014 General Elex, Ballot Question 3 Could Go Either Way; Fierce Fight in Contests for Sec'y of State & Atty General: A month until votes are counted in the Nevada
2014 general election, Ballot Question 3, which would impose a 2% margin tax on certain businesses, is backed by Democrats and opposed by Republicans, with Independents playing a decisive
role, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for the Las Vegas Review J ournal. Today, "No" leads "Yes" 40% to 37%. This is well within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error,
and especially so given that 23% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they are not certain how they will vote on Ballot Question 3. Republicans oppose Q3 by 30 points. Democrats support Q3 by 34
points. Independents are the determining factor, and they oppose Q3 by 30 points. Lower-income voters support Q3. Upper-income voters oppose Q3. Men oppose. Women split. If "Yes" wins, it
will be because traditional Democratic constituencies are under-counted in this survey. Opposition to ballot measures --- having nothing to do with Nevada and nothing in particular to do with
Question 3 --- typically increases as Election Day approaches. Q3 supporters have their work cut out. In the contest for the open seat of Secretary of State, Republican Barbara Cegavske and
Democrat Kate Marshall are effectively even today, 43% for Cegavske, 42% for Marshall. Cegavske's nominal 1-point advantage may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be
reported as a tie. The candidates truly are battling for each last vote: neither candidate reaches 50% among males, females, the young, the old, whites, blacks, Hispanics, independents or
moderates. 5% of voters tell SurveyUSA they will choose "None of these candidates in the contest." 10% more are undecided in the race. Either candidate could win, and a close finish would not be
an upset regardless of the top vote getter. In the contest for the open seat of Attorney General of Nevada, Democrat Ross Miller has a razor-thin 5 point advantage over Republican Adam Laxalt,
44% to 39%. Here, 7% of voters choose Independent American Party candidate J onathan J . Hansen, who seriously confounds any calculus of the contest. If Miller wins, it will be thanks to
moderate voters: he leads among self-described moderates by 17 points. If Laxalt overtakes, it may be because of a Republican "wave" that some foresee coast-to-coast in 2014. In the contest for
for the open seat of Lieutenant Governor of Nevada, Republican Mark Hutchison today defeats Democrat Lucy Flores 47% to 35%. Independent American candidate Mark Little gets 6% of the
vote. 3% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will vote for "None of these candidates." Hutchison leads by 19 points among men. Twice as many Democrats cross-over and vote Republican as do
Republicans who cross-over and vote Democratic. Moderates break for the Republican, a bad sign for any Democrat. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this
research: SurveyUSA interviewed 875 state of Nevada adults 09/29/14 through 10/01/14. Of the adults, 753 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 569 were determined by SurveyUSA
to be likely to vote on or before 11/04/14. Early voting begins 10/18/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of
likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a
questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
1
Nevadans will vote on Question 3, which would create a two percent margin tax on Nevada businesses. The money fromthe two percent tax would fund public schools. On Question 3,
are you ... certain to vote yes, which would create the two percent margin tax? Are you certain to vote no? Or are you not certain howyou will vote on Question 3?
569 Likely Voters
All
Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Hispani Party Affiliation
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Other Hispani Republi Democr Indepen
Yes 37% 35% 38% 50% 40% 29% 24% 45% 27% 40% 45% 23% 43% 25% 55% 22%
No 40% 48% 32% 34% 39% 45% 44% 36% 45% 38% 38% 49% 39% 55% 21% 52%
Not Certain 23% 18% 29% 16% 21% 26% 32% 18% 28% 22% 17% 28% 18% 21% 23% 26%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 53% 47% 28% 24% 28% 20% 51% 49% 71% 8% 21% 15% 35% 41% 23%
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690
Geography: Nevada Sponsor:
Data Collected: 09/29/2014 - 10/01/2014 Las Vegas Review-Journal ()
Release Date: 10/02/2014
Percentages
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690 - Page 2 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com
1
Nevadans will vote on Question 3, which would create a two percent margin tax on Nevada businesses. The money fromthe two percent tax would fund public schools. On Question 3,
are you ... certain to vote yes, which would create the two percent margin tax? Are you certain to vote no? Or are you not certain howyou will vote on Question 3?
569 Likely Voters
All
Ideology Education Income Region Cell Phone / Lan
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Conser Modera Liberal High Sc Some C 4-year <$40K $40K - >$80K Las Ve Rest of Washo Rest of Cell Ph Landlin
Yes 37% 20% 35% 69% 47% 41% 29% 44% 44% 28% 24% 46% 30% 34% 62% 28%
No 40% 55% 40% 18% 35% 39% 44% 32% 36% 47% 55% 33% 38% 44% 25% 46%
Not Certain 23% 25% 25% 13% 18% 20% 27% 24% 20% 26% 20% 22% 32% 22% 13% 27%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 36% 42% 17% 16% 36% 47% 28% 37% 35% 23% 47% 16% 14% 26% 74%
2
Nevada will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Mark Hutchison? Democrat Lucy
Flores? Or Independent American party candidate Mike Little?
569 Likely Voters
All
Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Hispani Party Affiliation
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Other Hispani Republi Democr Indepen
Mark Hutchison (R) 47% 53% 39% 51% 42% 45% 48% 47% 46% 49% 41% 42% 48% 82% 16% 46%
Lucy Flores (D) 35% 34% 37% 31% 40% 31% 40% 36% 35% 36% 48% 28% 31% 7% 70% 17%
Mike Little (IAP) 6% 4% 9% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 0% 8% 7% 2% 1% 22%
None Of These Candidates 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 1% 3% 3% 3% 1% 5% 8% 4% 2% 5%
Undecided 9% 5% 13% 8% 6% 14% 5% 7% 10% 6% 9% 17% 6% 6% 11% 10%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 53% 47% 28% 24% 28% 20% 51% 49% 71% 8% 21% 15% 35% 41% 23%
2
Nevada will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Mark Hutchison? Democrat Lucy
Flores? Or Independent American party candidate Mike Little?
569 Likely Voters
All
Ideology Education Income Region Cell Phone / Lan
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Conser Modera Liberal High Sc Some C 4-year <$40K $40K - >$80K Las Ve Rest of Washo Rest of Cell Ph Landlin
Mark Hutchison (R) 47% 65% 48% 9% 51% 45% 46% 38% 45% 54% 55% 40% 47% 53% 46% 47%
Lucy Flores (D) 35% 14% 36% 83% 34% 37% 35% 37% 44% 28% 32% 36% 45% 24% 40% 34%
Mike Little (IAP) 6% 6% 7% 3% 4% 5% 8% 10% 3% 5% 5% 7% 3% 10% 1% 8%
None Of These Candidates 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 5% 2% 2% 6% 2% 4%
Undecided 9% 12% 6% 3% 8% 9% 9% 11% 6% 11% 2% 15% 2% 7% 12% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 36% 42% 17% 16% 36% 47% 28% 37% 35% 23% 47% 16% 14% 26% 74%
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690
Geography: Nevada Sponsor:
Data Collected: 09/29/2014 - 10/01/2014 Las Vegas Review-Journal ()
Release Date: 10/02/2014
Percentages
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690 - Page 3 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com
3
Nevada will also elect a Secretary of State. If the election for Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Barbara Cegavske? Or Democrat Kate
Marshall?
569 Likely Voters
All
Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Hispani Party Affiliation
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Other Hispani Republi Democr Indepen
Barbara Cegavske (R) 43% 45% 41% 44% 42% 42% 45% 43% 43% 43% 42% 45% 37% 74% 13% 47%
Kate Marshall (D) 42% 39% 45% 37% 42% 44% 45% 39% 44% 41% 49% 40% 34% 9% 79% 26%
None Of These Candidates 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 1% 7% 10% 3% 2% 11%
Undecided 10% 12% 8% 15% 12% 9% 5% 13% 7% 11% 8% 8% 19% 13% 6% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 53% 47% 28% 24% 28% 20% 51% 49% 71% 8% 21% 15% 35% 41% 23%
3
Nevada will also elect a Secretary of State. If the election for Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Barbara Cegavske? Or Democrat Kate
Marshall?
569 Likely Voters
All
Ideology Education Income Region Cell Phone / Lan
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Conser Modera Liberal High Sc Some C 4-year <$40K $40K - >$80K Las Ve Rest of Washo Rest of Cell Ph Landlin
Barbara Cegavske (R) 43% 66% 42% 9% 41% 42% 44% 34% 41% 48% 55% 37% 35% 54% 33% 47%
Kate Marshall (D) 42% 20% 46% 83% 39% 41% 44% 45% 45% 40% 34% 42% 60% 31% 43% 41%
None Of These Candidates 5% 5% 2% 5% 6% 4% 4% 5% 3% 6% 8% 4% 2% 6% 1% 6%
Undecided 10% 9% 10% 3% 15% 12% 7% 16% 12% 6% 3% 17% 3% 8% 23% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 36% 42% 17% 16% 36% 47% 28% 37% 35% 23% 47% 16% 14% 26% 74%
4
Nevada will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican AdamPaul Laxalt? Democrat Ross
Miller? Or Independent American Party candidate J onathan J . Hansen?
569 Likely Voters
All
Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Hispani Party Affiliation
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Other Hispani Republi Democr Indepen
Adam Paul Laxalt (R) 39% 41% 38% 43% 32% 39% 44% 38% 41% 41% 19% 42% 37% 72% 14% 37%
Ross Miller (D) 44% 39% 49% 37% 48% 45% 46% 42% 46% 44% 50% 40% 31% 14% 79% 25%
J onathan J . Hansen (IAP) 7% 10% 5% 6% 10% 9% 4% 8% 7% 6% 23% 7% 8% 3% 2% 23%
None Of These Candidates 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 0% 4%
Undecided 8% 9% 7% 13% 9% 6% 3% 11% 5% 8% 7% 9% 22% 10% 5% 11%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 53% 47% 28% 24% 28% 20% 51% 49% 71% 8% 21% 15% 35% 41% 23%
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690
Geography: Nevada Sponsor:
Data Collected: 09/29/2014 - 10/01/2014 Las Vegas Review-Journal ()
Release Date: 10/02/2014
Percentages
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21690 - Page 4 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com
4
Nevada will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican AdamPaul Laxalt? Democrat Ross
Miller? Or Independent American Party candidate J onathan J . Hansen?
569 Likely Voters
All
Ideology Education Income Region Cell Phone / Lan
Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.2% Conser Modera Liberal High Sc Some C 4-year <$40K $40K - >$80K Las Ve Rest of Washo Rest of Cell Ph Landlin
Adam Paul Laxalt (R) 39% 63% 34% 12% 43% 32% 45% 36% 32% 48% 43% 33% 36% 59% 31% 42%
Ross Miller (D) 44% 22% 51% 80% 38% 45% 44% 42% 49% 42% 37% 48% 57% 26% 49% 42%
J onathan J . Hansen (IAP) 7% 7% 9% 5% 4% 12% 5% 11% 7% 5% 16% 5% 3% 5% 2% 9%
None Of These Candidates 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 0% 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 0% 2%
Undecided 8% 8% 5% 2% 12% 9% 5% 8% 11% 5% 3% 12% 3% 8% 19% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 36% 42% 17% 16% 36% 47% 28% 37% 35% 23% 47% 16% 14% 26% 74%
Statement of Methodology: About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit
Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster's report includes the geography that was surveyed; the
date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were
weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results
would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete
accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home
telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the
manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors. Research methodology, questionnaire
design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ . This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.