Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OBJETIVO:
-
UBICACIN:
ESTACION:
UDIMA
DEPARTAMENTO
Cajamarca:
LATITUD (S)
06 48'
TIPO:
Meteorolgica
PROVINCIA:
Santa Cruz
LONGITUD (W):
79 05'
PARAMETRO:
Precipitacin mxima 24 hr
DISTRITO:
Catache
Gumbel
LogNormal
LogPearson Tipo III
A su vez se realiz el ajuste por el mtodo de Chi cuadrado y, haciendo uso de una hoja de
clculo de Excel, por el mtodo Smirnov Kolgomorov.
Estadsticas bsicas:
Nivel e significancia: 5%
Probabilidad de no excedencia.
Formula de Weibull.
DISTRIBUCIN GUMBEL
Precipitaciones calculadas:
DISTRIBUCIN LOGNORMAL
Precipitaciones calculadas:
Observacin: Las tres funciones de probabilidad se ajustan a los datos analizados, por ello es
requerido el anlisis por el mtodo de Smirnov Kolgomorov para hallar a cual se ajustan mejor
los datos para luego proceder al clculo de la precipitacin de diseo.
ID
Precipitacin x (mm)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
48.80
18.70
19.70
30.00
32.00
34.00
60.00
90.00
51.00
21.00
24.00
37.00
49.00
86.00
36.00
29.00
43.00
36.00
48.10
31.00
27.00
36.00
40.00
45.00
46.00
32.00
43.00
28.00
43.50
43.50
42.00
46.00
30.00
48.00
43.00
74.00
36.30
52.50
Total
y
Sy =
Cs=
Mximo =
Minimo =
Precipitacin
ajustada * (mm)
55.14
21.13
22.26
33.90
36.16
38.42
67.80
101.70
57.63
23.73
27.12
41.81
55.37
97.18
40.68
32.77
48.59
40.68
54.35
35.03
30.51
40.68
45.20
50.85
51.98
36.16
48.59
31.64
49.16
49.16
47.46
51.98
33.90
54.24
48.59
83.62
41.02
59.33
1580.100
41.582
15.792
1.403
90.0
18.7
* Precipitacin maxima en 24 horas afectada por un factor de correccin de 1,13 (OM M , 1994).
Ordenado
21.13
22.26
23.73
27.12
30.51
31.64
32.77
33.90
33.90
35.03
36.16
36.16
38.42
40.68
40.68
40.68
41.02
41.81
45.20
47.46
48.59
48.59
48.59
49.16
49.16
50.85
51.98
51.98
54.24
54.35
55.14
55.37
57.63
59.33
67.80
83.62
97.18
101.70
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
Total
Pp (mm)
Ln(Pp)
3.051
3.103
3.167
3.300
3.418
3.454
3.490
3.523
3.523
3.556
3.588
3.588
3.649
3.706
3.706
3.706
3.714
3.733
3.811
3.860
3.883
3.883
3.883
3.895
3.895
3.929
3.951
3.951
3.993
3.995
4.010
4.014
4.054
4.083
4.217
4.426
4.577
4.622
143.91
3.79
Sy =
0.3555
21.1
22.3
23.7
27.1
30.5
31.6
32.8
33.9
33.9
35.0
36.2
36.2
38.4
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0
41.8
45.2
47.5
48.6
48.6
48.6
49.2
49.2
50.9
52.0
52.0
54.2
54.4
55.1
55.4
57.6
59.3
67.8
83.6
97.2
101.7
Y=ln(X)
Z=(Y-Ymedia)/YD.S.
P(x)
0.026
0.051
0.077
0.103
0.128
0.154
0.179
0.205
0.231
0.256
0.282
0.308
0.333
0.359
0.385
0.410
0.436
0.462
0.487
0.513
0.538
0.564
0.590
0.615
0.641
0.667
0.692
0.718
0.744
0.769
0.795
0.821
0.846
0.872
0.897
0.923
0.949
0.974
Z
-2.071
-1.924
-1.745
-1.369
-1.038
-0.936
-0.837
-0.742
-0.742
-0.649
-0.560
-0.560
-0.389
-0.229
-0.229
-0.229
-0.205
-0.152
0.068
0.205
0.271
0.271
0.271
0.304
0.304
0.399
0.461
0.461
0.580
0.586
0.627
0.638
0.751
0.833
1.208
1.798
2.221
2.349
F(Z)
0.019
0.027
0.041
0.085
0.150
0.175
0.201
0.229
0.229
0.258
0.288
0.288
0.348
0.410
0.410
0.410
0.419
0.440
0.527
0.581
0.607
0.607
0.607
0.619
0.619
0.655
0.678
0.678
0.719
0.721
0.735
0.738
0.774
0.797
0.886
0.964
0.987
0.991
max =
= F(z) - P(x)
0.006
0.024
0.036
0.017
0.021
0.021
0.022
0.024
0.002
0.002
0.006
0.020
0.015
0.051
0.025
0.001
0.017
0.022
0.040
0.068
0.068
0.043
0.017
0.004
0.022
0.012
0.015
0.040
0.024
0.048
0.060
0.082
0.072
0.074
0.011
0.041
0.038
0.016
0.082
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
Total
Pp (mm)
21.1
22.3
23.7
27.1
30.5
31.6
32.8
33.9
33.9
35.0
36.2
36.2
38.4
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0
41.8
45.2
47.5
48.6
48.6
48.6
49.2
49.2
50.9
52.0
52.0
54.2
54.4
55.1
55.4
57.6
59.3
67.8
83.6
97.2
101.7
62.50
1.64
Sy =
Cs =
0.1544
0.166
Log(Pp)
1.325
1.348
1.375
1.433
1.484
1.500
1.515
1.530
1.530
1.544
1.558
1.558
1.585
1.609
1.609
1.609
1.613
1.621
1.655
1.676
1.687
1.687
1.687
1.692
1.692
1.706
1.716
1.716
1.734
1.735
1.741
1.743
1.761
1.773
1.831
1.922
1.988
2.007
P(x)
0.026
0.051
0.077
0.103
0.128
0.154
0.179
0.205
0.231
0.256
0.282
0.308
0.333
0.359
0.385
0.410
0.436
0.462
0.487
0.513
0.538
0.564
0.590
0.615
0.641
0.667
0.692
0.718
0.744
0.769
0.795
0.821
0.846
0.872
0.897
0.923
0.949
0.974
K
-2.071
-1.924
-1.745
-1.369
-1.038
-0.936
-0.837
-0.742
-0.742
-0.649
-0.560
-0.560
-0.389
-0.229
-0.229
-0.229
-0.205
-0.152
0.068
0.205
0.271
0.271
0.271
0.304
0.304
0.399
0.461
0.461
0.580
0.586
0.627
0.638
0.751
0.833
1.208
1.798
2.221
2.349
F(z)
0.019
0.028
0.040
0.084
0.154
0.179
0.204
0.239
0.239
0.273
0.305
0.305
0.368
0.426
0.426
0.426
0.435
0.455
0.533
0.581
0.604
0.604
0.604
0.616
0.616
0.649
0.670
0.670
0.712
0.714
0.728
0.732
0.772
0.800
0.881
0.959
0.983
0.987
max =
= F(z) - P(x)
0.0069
0.0229
0.0367
0.0186
0.0260
0.0251
0.0248
0.0340
0.0084
0.0164
0.0234
0.0023
0.0344
0.0675
0.0418
0.0162
0.0009
0.0069
0.0460
0.0682
0.0657
0.0401
0.0144
0.0001
0.0255
0.0179
0.0219
0.0476
0.0314
0.0550
0.0665
0.0881
0.0744
0.0717
0.0167
0.0359
0.0339
0.0124
0.088
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
Total
Pp (mm)
21.1
22.3
23.7
27.1
30.5
31.6
32.8
33.9
33.9
35.0
36.2
36.2
38.4
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0
41.8
45.2
47.5
48.6
48.6
48.6
49.2
49.2
50.9
52.0
52.0
54.2
54.4
55.1
55.4
57.6
59.3
67.8
83.6
97.2
101.7
P(x)
0.026
0.051
0.077
0.103
0.128
0.154
0.179
0.205
0.231
0.256
0.282
0.308
0.333
0.359
0.385
0.410
0.436
0.462
0.487
0.513
0.538
0.564
0.590
0.615
0.641
0.667
0.692
0.718
0.744
0.769
0.795
0.821
0.846
0.872
0.897
0.923
0.949
0.974
Z
-1.04539
-0.97675
-0.88752
-0.68160
-0.47568
-0.40704
-0.33840
-0.26976
-0.26976
-0.20112
-0.13248
-0.13248
0.00480
0.14208
0.14208
0.14208
0.16267
0.21072
0.41664
0.55392
0.62256
0.62256
0.62256
0.65688
0.65688
0.75984
0.82848
0.82848
0.96576
0.97262
1.02067
1.03440
1.17168
1.27464
1.78944
2.75040
3.57408
3.84864
1785.51
46.99
Sy =
=
=
17.61
16.46
38.34
F(z)
0.058
0.070
0.088
0.138
0.200
0.223
0.246
0.270
0.270
0.294
0.319
0.319
0.370
0.420
0.420
0.420
0.427
0.445
0.517
0.563
0.585
0.585
0.585
0.595
0.595
0.626
0.646
0.646
0.683
0.685
0.697
0.701
0.734
0.756
0.846
0.938
0.972
0.979
max =
(Para N)
= F(z) - P(x)
0.0325
0.0190
0.0112
0.0359
0.0719
0.0688
0.0664
0.0648
0.0391
0.0380
0.0372
0.0116
0.0363
0.0610
0.0354
0.0097
0.0084
0.0167
0.0301
0.0501
0.0463
0.0206
0.0050
0.0200
0.0456
0.0403
0.0462
0.0718
0.0602
0.0841
0.0974
0.1196
0.1126
0.1157
0.0513
0.0150
0.0236
0.0046
0.1196
poblacional
S
n
n=
kT
y n
LogY T LogY
S LogY
Yn =
n =
21.00
0.53
1.07
(De tabla A-8, Pag. 583 del libro Engineering Hydrology de Vctor Ponce, 1989)
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
Total
Pp (mm)
21.1
22.3
23.7
27.1
30.5
31.6
32.8
33.9
33.9
35.0
36.2
36.2
38.4
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0
41.8
45.2
47.5
48.6
48.6
48.6
49.2
49.2
50.9
52.0
52.0
54.2
54.4
55.1
55.4
57.6
59.3
67.8
83.6
97.2
101.7
Y
-1.306
-1.224
-1.117
-0.870
-0.623
-0.541
-0.458
-0.376
-0.376
-0.294
-0.211
-0.211
-0.047
0.118
0.118
0.118
0.143
0.200
0.447
0.612
0.694
0.694
0.694
0.735
0.735
0.859
0.941
0.941
1.105
1.114
1.171
1.188
1.352
1.476
2.093
3.245
4.233
4.562
1785.51
46.99
Sy =
=
=
17.61
13.73
39.06
P(x)
0.026
0.051
0.077
0.103
0.128
0.154
0.179
0.205
0.231
0.256
0.282
0.308
0.333
0.359
0.385
0.410
0.436
0.462
0.487
0.513
0.538
0.564
0.590
0.615
0.641
0.667
0.692
0.718
0.744
0.769
0.795
0.821
0.846
0.872
0.897
0.923
0.949
0.974
(Para N-1)
X 0 . 5772156649
0.033
0.047
0.092
0.155
0.180
0.206
0.233
0.233
0.261
0.291
0.291
0.351
0.411
0.411
0.411
0.420
0.441
0.528
0.581
0.607
0.607
0.607
0.619
0.619
0.655
0.677
0.677
0.718
0.720
0.733
0.737
0.772
0.796
0.884
0.962
0.986
0.990
max =
G( y ) e e
G(Y)
0.025
muestral
= G(Y) - P(x)
0.0007
0.0179
0.0298
0.0106
0.0268
0.0257
0.0262
0.0279
0.0023
0.0051
0.0087
0.0170
0.0173
0.0522
0.0265
0.0009
0.0158
0.0205
0.0404
0.0685
0.0683
0.0427
0.0170
0.0037
0.0219
0.0121
0.0154
0.0411
0.0254
0.0491
0.0614
0.0833
0.0740
0.0761
0.0134
0.0387
0.0369
0.0153
0.0833
Nivel de significancia
mx
crtico
Ajuste
Observacin
Log Normal
0.082
0.221
Bueno
Presenta el menor
0.088
0.221
Bueno
Gumbel
0.120
0.221
Bueno
Gumbel modificado
0.083
0.221
Bueno
Distribucin
* Se concluye que la distribucion que mejor se ajusta a la data es la distribucion Log Normal.
Ao
1975
Precipitacin
ajustada *
(mm)
Log(Prec.
ajustada)
1.3249
1.3475
1.3753
1.4333
1.4844
1.5002
1.5155
1.5302
1.5302
1.5444
1.5582
1.5582
1.5846
1.6094
1.6094
1.6094
1.6130
1.6213
1.6551
1.6763
1.6865
1.6865
1.6865
1.6916
1.6916
1.7063
1.7158
1.7158
1.7343
1.7352
1.7415
1.7433
1.7606
1.7732
1.8312
1.9223
1.9876
2.0073
2012
21.131
22.261
23.730
27.120
30.510
31.640
32.770
33.900
33.900
35.030
36.160
36.160
38.420
40.680
40.680
40.680
41.019
41.810
45.200
47.460
48.590
48.590
48.590
49.155
49.155
50.850
51.980
51.980
54.240
54.353
55.144
55.370
57.630
59.325
67.800
83.620
97.180
101.700
Promedio
47.0
1.6
Desv. Estndar
17.8
0.2
Coef. Asimetra
Cs
1.4
0.2
Cs/6
k
n
0.2
0.03
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
38
* Precipitacin maxima en 24 horas afectada por un factor de correccin de 1,13 (OM M , 1994).
Log Pp
Precipitacin
Mxima
(mm)
2.146
1.282
1.843
69.60
20
0.050
2.448
1.645
1.899
79.20
50
0.020
2.797
2.054
1.962
91.59
100
0.010
3.035
2.327
2.004
100.91
175
0.006
3.214
2.530
2.035
108.47
500
0.002
3.526
2.879
2.089
122.78
*Usando la metodologa del libro de Hidrologa Aplicada de Ven Te Chow, pag 401
KT
Log Pp
Precipitaci
n Mxima
(mm)
2.146
1.282
1.298
1.845
70.00
20
0.050
2.448
1.645
1.691
1.906
80.50
50
0.020
2.797
2.054
2.142
1.975
94.50
100
0.010
3.035
2.327
2.448
2.023
105.37
175
0.006
3.214
2.530
2.679
2.058
114.38
500
0.002
3.526
2.879
3.081
2.120
131.97
*Usando la metodologa del libro de Hidrologa Aplicada de Ven Te Chow, pag 401-403
1.5031
Precipitaci
n Mxima
(mm)
73.81
20
2.1366
85.11
KT
50
2.9566
99.75
100
3.5710
110.71
175
4.0654
119.53
500
4.9909
136.05
n=
Yn =
=
38
0.5424
1.1363
*De tabla A-8, Pag. 583 del libro Engineering Hydrology - Vctor Ponce,1989
1.3053
Precipitaci
n Mxima
(mm)
70.28
20
1.8668
80.30
KT
50
2.5935
93.27
100
3.1381
102.99
175
3.5763
110.81
500
4.3966
125.44
CONCLUSIONES:
-
Segn los mtodos usados, si bien el mtodo de Chi cuadrado nos mostraba que los
datos se ajustaban a las distribuciones analizadas, su anlisis no fue suficiente para
tener una respuesta nica; por ello se realiz el mtodo de Smirnov Kolgomorov, el
cual nos dio como resultado que los datos se ajustaban mejor a la distribucin Log
normal. Por ello se ve conveniente que el clculo de la precipitacin de diseo sea con
dicha funcin de distribucin.