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Pathways to Low Carbon Shipping
- Abatement Potential Towards 2050
Research and Innovation, Position Paper 14 - 2012
Contact details:
Prepared by: Eide, M., Chryssakis, C., Alvik, S., Endresen, .
Contact: Magnus.strandmyr.eide@dnv.com
Research and
Innovation in
DNV
This is
DNV
The objective of strategic research
is through new knowledge and
services to enable long term
innovation and business growth in
support of the overall strategy of
DNV. Such research is carried out
in selected areas that are believed
to be of particular signicance
for DNV in the future. A Position
Paper from DNV Research and
Innovation is intended to highlight
ndings from our research
programmes.
DNV is a global provider of services
for managing risk. Established
in 1864, DNV is an independent
foundation with the purpose of
safeguarding life, property, and the
environment. DNV comprises 300
ofces in 100 countries with 9,000
employees. Our vision is to create
a global impact towards ensuring a
safe and sustainable future.
In 2009, DNV published Pathways to Low Carbon Shipping that demonstrated
a cost-effective potential for reducing CO
2
emissions by 15 % on the existing
world shipping eet and by 30 % on of the predicted global eet in 2030. In
this latest study, DNV has used a new probabilistic model to analyse pathways
towards 2050.
In addition to those measures analysed in the 2009 study, the potential uptake
of a wide range of alternative fuels is modelled. The results demonstrate that
with uptake of operational and technical measures, as well as biofuels and LNG,
the cost-effective CO
2
reduction potential in 2050 is around 50 % of baseline
emissions, indicating stabilisation of emissions from world shipping at present
levels.
The results show LNG could be important part of the fuel mix in 2050 based on
cost-effectiveness considerations. However, this study shows that for shipping to
provide a substantial contribution to a 2C pathway, a regulatory or nancial
incentive for biofuel is one alterative, but that nuclear power in large ships
could also cut emissions drastically in a cost-effective way.
Summary
4
IN JUNE 2009, DNV published the rst version of Pathways
to Low Carbon Shipping
1
, which considers possible approaches
for reducing CO
2
emissions from the world shipping eet.
The main nding was that, on the existing eet, shipping
has the potential to cut CO
2
emissions by up to 15 % in a
cost-effective way. Extending the perspective into the future,
the second Pathways study
2
, published in December 2009,
demonstrated a cost-effective potential for cutting emissions
in the eet by 30 % in year 2030 by applying 24 technical and
operational measures, as well as liqueed natural gas (LNG).
Since 2009, DNV has not only moved the Pathways results
into the academic literature
3,4,
but has also worked to
demonstrate the practical applications of many CO
2

reduction options in concrete concept designs, such as the
Triality and the Quantum, and on-board a sailing vessel
in the Fellowship project. Additionally, DNV has recently
presented results on probable technology uptake towards
2020
5,6,
covering additional technologies such as scrubbers
for SOx reduction and hybrid propulsion.
In this third Pathways study, our perspective is directed
towards 2050, and we apply a probabilistic Monte Carlo
modelling approach to provide a better handling of
uncertainty in future CO
2
estimates and the cost-effective
abatement potentials. The work builds on a long line of DNV
contributions to the scientic foundation for understanding
past, present, and future emissions from shipping and their
impacts
7
. In addition to the 24 measures from the earlier
Pathways studies, we also simulate the uptake of a wider
range of alternative marine fuels for new ships up to 2050;
biofuels, LNG, and nuclear. For discussion of the likelihood
of achieving such potentials, see Box below.
The new DNV Pathways model allows us to assess how new
energy market realities and climate change incentives might
impact the likelihood of a transition away from the current
marine fuel mix that is dominated by Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)
and Marine Diesel Oil (MGO).
Such an energy transition has previously only been studied
to a limited extent for the shipping sector. For other
sectors, including the transport sector in general
8
, studies
have suggested that alternative fuels may challenge the
dominance of oil in the rst half of this century. History has
shown that the maritime sector can be quick to adopt new
fuels, should the right incentives be in place; in the age of
the steamships, in the short decade between 1914 and 1922,
the percentage of vessels using oil rather than coal in their
boilers increased from 3 % to 24 %
9
. As in the 1920ies the
main driver for such a shift today is fuel price and energy
efciency. However, additional drivers such as regulation
on SOx and CO
2
are now inuencing the decision process.
However, in this study, the fuel price and energy efciency
is governing the uptake of technologies and fuels towards
2050.
In this study we particularly focus on:
Pathways towards 2050 (Figure 1)
Abatement potential in 2050 (Figure 2)
Contribution of alternative fuels and other measures
on CO
2
abatement potential in 2050, and associated
variability due to fuel price uncertainties (Figure 3)
Energy mix in 2050, based on 200 individual model
runs and associated variability due to fuel price
uncertainties (Figure 4)
The results are produced by the DNV Pathways model,
building on DNVs own foresight and technology outlook,
as well as experience gained from energy efciency studies
that DNV has undertaken with individual ship-owners.
Introduction
5
THE UPDATED DNV Pathways model facilitates assessment
of future emissions pathways considering individual ships
in the world eet. Of the 24 different measures analysed, 16
are considered technical measures and 8 are operational.
The 4 most relevant alternative fuel types for ships in the
period 2012-2050 have been modelled. In the modelling,
an average CO
2
reduction relative to HFO or MDO has
been assumed
10
:
LNG; 20 % reduction
Biofuels; 50 % reduction
Nuclear; 100 % reduction
These reductions are for tank-to-propeller emissions, except
for biofuels where we use well-to-propeller estimates
11
. The
contribution of well-to-tank emissions for the other fuels is
not expected to signicantly affect the results of this work.
In the model, the measures and fuels are applied to the
world shipping eet in order to investigate the future
abatement potentials. In the DNV Pathways model, which
is rooted in the second IMO GHG
12
study, the world eet
has been divided into 59 segments. These 59 segments
represent the major ship types that constitute the world
eet
13
, such as Suezmax tankers.
Each of these segments has been modelled separately with
regard to:
operational assumptions
the applicability and reduction potential of each
measure
the cost of each measure and fuel option
the year when available measures and fuels are phased
in, and maximum uptake rate
As our model covers 59 different segments, the cost
and reduction effects of the different measures vary
signicantly from one segment to another. The measures
are only included for the ship types for which they are
applicable. Also, a technical maximum uptake rate is
applied for each segment. This rate reects the potential
when only technical issues are considered, and with no
consideration of political developments, non-technical
barriers, and social acceptance. See also box below.
The baseline pathways are calculated taking into account
world eet growth until 2050, simulating scrapping and
building of ships from year to year. This baseline provides
reference levels for assessing the effect of abatement
measures. A range of baselines are developed, using both
high- and low growth rates
14
, through a Monte Carlo
approach in which repeated random sampling of input
values is used to compute our results.
The DNV Pathways Model
6
What is a realistic reduction potential?
This study has estimated the potential reduction in the
world eets CO
2
emissions, if a set of available measures
and alternative fuels are implemented. The aim of the study
has been to identify the maximum obtainable cost-effective
emission reduction potential in 2050.
It is difcult to predict the uptake of these measures and
fuels towards 2050. In addition to cost issues, there are many
other barriers to uptake. These are related to issues such
as technical complexity and training, and also to industry
practice and internal company organisational issues. Recent
research
15
into barriers indicates that technical measures
appear to have higher barriers than operational measures.
Less mature technologies also appear to be more difcult
to implement. Funding of more large scale demonstration
projects could speed up the uptake.
In view of the known barriers to uptake, it is realised that
the abatement potentials do not directly reect emission
reductions that are realistic. In other words, the aim of this
study is NOT to produce likely or expected developments
for CO
2
emissions, but rather to prove what could be
achieved by implementing known technology.
Furthermore, the objective of this study is to assess the
reduction potential for the eet, i.e., the potential for
implementing technical and operational measures, as
well as alternative fuels. IMO has already mandated the
introduction of new energy efciency standards for new
ships, chiey the Energy Efciency Design Index (EEDI
16
),
and the Ship Energy Efciency Management Plan (SEEMP).
Inclusion of market-based instruments (MBI) is being
debated. As such policy options are not, in themselves, ways
of reducing emissions, but rather means of tapping into the
abatement potentials inherent physical measures, they are
not included in this study, and our baseline emissions are
calculated without considering the impact of policy.
The fuel uptake on new ships to the eet is then
determined on a yearly basis towards 2050. The uptake
rates of alternative fuels are determined by the cost of the
alternative relative to HFO/MDO. The high uncertainty
in fuel price projections is accounted for by using a Monte
Carlo approach. Hence, time series for fuel costs of HFO/
MDO, LNG, biofuel and nuclear are drawn from their
respective probability distributions (based on forecasts
reported by the International Energy Agency and the
US Energy Information Administration and others
17,18
).
For each segment, in each model realization, and in
every year, the most cost-effective fuel is selected (HFO/
MDO is selected by default if alternative fuels are not cost
effective).
Lastly, having determined the fuel for each ship in each
model run, the model assesses the cost-effectiveness of
technical and operational abatement measures individually
for each ship in the eet. Measures that are cost-effective
(i.e., have a marginal cost below USD 0/t CO
2
) are then
applied to the ships. In the model, the uptake of alternative
fuels on existing ships has not been included, nor have
new ships been allowed to convert to alternative fuels after
their year of build.
7
IN THE FOLLOWING, we investigate the different pathways,
or emission development trajectories, towards 2050
produced by the model. We then examine the emission
reduction potential in the year 2050 more closely, also
studying variability in the individual model realizations.
The results from the second Pathways study demonstrated
that emissions in 2030 could be stabilised at present
levels using only cost-effective technical and operational
measures. The emission trajectories shown in Figure 1
demonstrate that this level of emissions can be sustained,
and even lowered, towards 2030, if the uptake of cost-
effective alternative fuels is included. The results show that
there are large cost-effective potentials for CO
2
reduction.
As shown in the previous Pathways study, this potential
is achieved by a wide range of cost-effective measures,
some of which are easily implemented, i.e., they can be
considered to be low-hanging fruit.
Following the trajectories into 2050, Figure 1 shows that
while the baseline pathways will result in our emissions
doubling by 2050, we could keep the emissions stable,
applying only cost-effective measures and fuels, even
without including the controversial nuclear option in the
mix. However, if we are to reduce the emissions considerably
from todays level, nuclear can be a signicant contributor,
as shown in Figure 1.
Results
Figure 1: Baseline emissions (grey) vs. emissions including cost-effective uptake of alternative fuels. Blue sector shows potentials including uptake
of nuclear, biofuel and LNG, as well as technical and operational measures. The yellow sector shows the same potential, but excludes nuclear. The
achievable emission levels are illustrated, displaying the maximum, minimum, 25% and 75% percentiles of 200 model realizations; the dark shaded
area covers the central 50% of the model runs.
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
C
O
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e
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(
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)
8
Additional reductions can also be achieved without
nuclear. However, this requires progressingwe beyond
cost-effective solutions. Focusing on the potentials in 2050,
Figure 2 shows what could be achieved by inclusion of
more costly fuels or measures, allowing for all alternative
fuels or only some of them.
Figure 2 (left yellow bar) shows that with cost-effective
uptake of measures, as well as LNG and biofuels, the
CO
2
emissions in 2050 lie between a lower bound of 46
% of baseline, and an upper bound of 68 % of baseline
emissions. Furthermore, half the model realization
emissions occur in the narrow band between 50 % and
57 % of baseline. Allowing for more expensive measures
by increasing the uptake criterion lowers the emissions
further, although not signicantly.
However, in order to limit global temperature increases
to 2C, stabilizing emissions at present levels will be
insufcient. For this target to be achieved, global emissions
in 2050 must be lowered to 40 % of present levels or
below
19
. In this context, shipping emissions alone, if left
unabated, would represent at least 10 % of total global
emissions in 2050. Even if shipping emissions in 2050 were
halved, as seen in Figure 1, the relative share of global
emissions contributed by shipping would still be double
todays gure. Thus, if emission levels from shipping in
2050 are to be consistent with a global 2C stabilization
target, then reductions beyond those which can be cost-
effectively achieved by measures, LNG and biofuels will be
necessary. Figure 2 shows that this is achievable by at least
two pathways; either through allowing nuclear power, or
by providing nancial incentives for biofuel.
Allowing nuclear power as an option lowers the emissions
in a cost-effective manner to 15 % of baseline in the most
extreme case (lower bound in the gure), although most
of the model realizations give emissions of around 30 %
of baseline. At higher marginal cost, even lower emissions
levels are achievable.
Figure 2 (green bars) also shows that when only biofuel is
allowed as the alternative to HFO/MDO, the emissions can
still be lowered substantially if higher marginal costs are
accepted. At a marginal cost threshold of USD 100/t CO
2
,
the model shows a lower bound on the emissions below
30 % of baseline, i.e., reduction in emissions by 70 %.
This indicates that with suitable regulatory and nancial
incentives (e.g. CO
2
pricing), biofuel can be a signicant
contributor to CO
2
reductions in shipping, almost
matching the reductions achieved by allowing nuclear.
9
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
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(
%
)
0 50 100
Biofuel
0 50 100
Biofuel and LNG
0 50 100
Nuclear, Biofuel and LNG
Figure 2: CO
2
emissions relative to baseline for the world shipping eet in 2050, allowing for various alternative fuels. For each allowed fuel option, the
uptake criterion is set at 0, 50 and 100 USD/t CO
2
. The emission levels are displaying for the maximum, minimum, 25 % and 75 % percentiles of 200
model realizations. The colour areas cover the middle 50 % of the model runs. The left-hand yellow bar and the left-hand blue bar in this graph are also
shown in Figure 1 (for 2050).
10
Variability between the individual model realizations lying
between the upper and lower bounds shown in Figure 1
and Figure 2 was studied for 2050. Figure 3 shows the CO
2

emissions relative to the respective baseline emissions
for all the 200 individual model realizations, with uptake
criterion USD 0/t CO
2
, and biofuels and LNG included
as alternatives to the oil-based fuels. Also shown is the
percentage of reductions achieved by new fuels (dark bars),
while the light bars illustrate the percentage reductions
achieved by technical and operational reduction measures
in addition to any fuel impact. The model realizations
with the highest emission reduction are on the left (lower
bound in Figures 1 and 2), where use of alternative fuels is
responsible for approximately one third of the reductions.
To the right (upper bound in Figures 1 and 2), can be
observed several realizations where the CO
2
cuts are
accomplished by technical and operational measures
alone; i.e., there is no uptake of alternative fuels. The
variability in the results is due to various combinations of
fuel prices, leading to different decisions with regards to
uptake of alternative fuels and of CO
2
abatement measures.
Key Challenges for the Alternative Fuels
20
LNG
Strict regulations on NOx and SOx emissions, combined
with a more competitive gas price, will drive the uptake of
gas as a marine fuel. One challenge for shipping is that LNG
tanks typically require 2 to 3 times more space than a fuel
oil tank. Since natural gas must be stored either liqueed or
compressed, these storage tanks are also more expensive.
Based on recent experience, the new-build cost of LNG-fuelled
ships is between 10 and 15 % higher than for equivalent
diesel-fuelled ships. Although LNG bunkering infrastructure
is currently very limited, a signicant increase in the number
of bunkering terminals is expected in the coming decades,
especially within ECAs (Emission Control Areas).
Biofuel
The most promising biofuels for ships are biodiesel and crude
plant oil. Biodiesel is most suitable for replacing marine
distillate, and plant oil is suitable for replacing residual
fuels. In principle, existing diesel engines can run on biofuel
blends. Challenges with biofuel include fuel instability,
corrosion, susceptibility to microbial growth, and poor cold
ow properties. Although these technical challenges can be
resolved, widespread use of biofuel in shipping will depend
on price, other incentives, and availability in sufcient
volumes. Breakthroughs in production methods, enabling use
of previously untapped feedstock and avoiding competition
with food production, are expected.
Nuclear
Nuclear power plants have no greenhouse gas emissions
during operation and are especially well-suited to ships with
slowly varying power demands. Although several hundred
nuclear-powered navy vessels exist, few nuclear-powered
merchant ships have been built. Commercial nuclear ships
would have to run on low enriched uranium, and land-based
prototypes offer a compact reactor (comparable to large
marine diesel engines). The main barriers to nuclear shipping
are related to uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear material,
decommissioning and storage of radioactive waste, the
signicant investment costs, and societal acceptance.
11
Figure 3: CO
2
emissions relative to baseline for 200 individual runs in 2050 (blue line). Share of total reduction from baseline achieved by new fuels (dark
bars). Share of total reduction from baseline achieved by technical and operational reduction measures (light bars). The uptake criterion is USD 0/t, with
only biofuels and LNG allowed as alternatives to HFO/MDO. This corresponds to the yellow results in Figure 1. The 200 realizations have been ranged by
decreasing absolute levels of emission reductions, ordered from left to right.
0%
10%
20%
30%
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Part of CO
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reduction due to Alternative fuels (left axis)
Part of CO
2
reduction due to operational and technical measures (left axis)
CO
2
emissions relative to baseline (right axis)
12
While Figure 3 shows the CO
2
reductions achieved by use
of alternative fuels in 2050, it does not provide information
on the fuel mix. Figure 4 (left) shows the number of ships
in 2050 using HFO/MDO, biofuels, and LNG for each of
the 200 model realizations, while Figure 4 (right) shows
the energy use from HFO/MDO, biofuels and LNG. It can
be seen that the number of ships using LNG and biofuels
is always larger than the share of energy attributable to
the same fuels, indicating that HFO will often remain
the fuel of choice for large ships. It should also be noted
that the model realizations can generally be divided into
two major groups: those dominated by HFO/MDO and
those dominated by LNG. Extensive use of biofuel is more
occasional, and is applied mostly on smaller vessels where
biofuel outperforms MDO.
Figure 4 demonstrates how randomness in fuel prices
translates to very different images of fuel mix and
technology uptake in the future eet. In sum, Figure 4
shows clearly the viability and effect of biofuel is highly
uncertain due to the high uncertainty in oil and gas prices.
It also shows that LNG will likely play an important part in
the 2050 energy mix for shipping.
Figure 4: Number of ships in 2050 using HFO/MDO, biofuel and LNG (Left, in % of total number of ships) and energy use from HFO/MDO, biofuels
and LNG (Right, in % of total energy use). The uptake criterion is USD 0/t CO
2
, with only biofuels and LNG allowed as alternatives to HFO/MDO. This
corresponds to the yellow results in Figure 1. The 200 realizations have been ranged by increasing absolute levels of energy use from HFO/MDO, ordered
from left to right.
0 %
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13
IN ADDITION TO the measures included in this study, it is
assumed that other measures, mostly less cost-efcient, will
be developed. Examples are maritime carbon capture and
storage (MCCS), as well as use of hydrogen as an energy
carrier (from renewables), ballast-free ships, hybrid ships,
extreme speed reductions, and low temperature waste heat
recovery. Several alternative fuels
21
have also been omitted
from this study. Furthermore, DNV foresees that many
new measures will emerge in the next decades, and some
of these may also have a signicant effect before 2050.
Inclusion of such measures could produce alternative
pathways, not covered by this study. It is also recognised
that game changes for the industry could occur, e.g.,
widespread, cheap extraction of unconventional oil and
gas, or breakthroughs in biofuel production technologies.
Should such developments occur, the accuracy of our
projections might be challenged.
It should also be noted that this study calculates the cost-
effectiveness of the measures and alternative fuels relative
to the default fuels uses today; primarily HFO. With the
upcoming fuel sulphur limits, it may well be that the default
fuel for many ships will switch to the more expensive MDO.
This would improve the relative cost effectiveness of the
measures and alternative fuels, and increase the uptake
compared to the results presented herein.
Lastly, the results presented in this study are primarily of
relevance in a policy context. However, the model can
be set up to assess in detail the potential pathways for
individual ships or smaller eets, making it a valuable
modelling framework also for ship owners.
Discussion
14
IN THIS THIRD Pathways study, DNV has analysed the
projected eet towards 2050. The long time horizon
introduces large uncertainties, e.g., in the price and
effect of measures, the rate of uptake of new technologies
and fuels, the eet growth estimates. Additionally, only
measures that are currently known can be included. In
order to assess the potential for alternative marine fuels
and to handle some of the uncertainties, this study uses a
probabilistic approach.
Our baseline pathways show that current CO
2
emissions
will double by 2050 if measures are not introduced.
This corresponds well with the limited number of other
published scenarios
22,23,24.
By inclusion of LNG and
biofuels, as well as technical and operational measures,
the emission levels in 2050 could be kept, cost-effectively,
around 50 % below baseline. These results re-afrm that
there are a range of cost-effective measures available to
shipping, and indicate many low-hanging fruits that could
help to stabilise emissions at present levels.
However, limiting global temperature increases to 2C will
require more than stabilising emissions at present levels.
For this target to be achieved, global emissions in 2050
must be reduced to 40 % of present levels or below. In this
context, shipping emissions alone, if left unabated, would
represent at least 10 % of total global emissions in 2050.
If shipping should be required to follow a 2C pathway,
our results show that sufcient reductions are achievable
by at least two pathways. The rst is to allow for nuclear
power; our results show that by following this pathway, the
cost-effective potential in 2050 increases drastically, with
emissions approaching one third of present levels. The
second pathway is to provide substantial regulatory or
nancial incentives for biofuels.
The results also show variation between individual model
realizations. The cost-effective CO
2
reductions that could
be achieved by LNG and biofuels are, at best, one third of
the total reductions. In some realizations, all reductions
are achieved by technical and operational measures,
i.e., alternative fuels are not applied. Investigating the
variability in fuel mix between realizations, the results show
that the number of ships on LNG and biofuel is always
larger than the share of energy attributable to the same
fuels. This indicates that HFO will often remain the fuel
of choice for large ships. However, the results indicate that
LNG will likely play an important part in the 2050 energy
mix for shipping.
While this study does not propose likely or expected
developments for CO
2
emissions in the eet, it does
demonstrate what could be achieved towards 2050 by using
the currently known technologies. However, in order to
capitalise on these potentials, ship-owners, technology
developers and regulators must take action.
Conclusions
15
1 Pathways to Low Carbon Shipping, DNV Memo to the IMO Secretary General,
9
th
June 2009.
2 Pathways to low carbon shipping - Abatement potential towards 2030. DNV
memo released at COP15, December 2009.
3 Eide et al. (2011) Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO
2
emissions.
Maritime Policy & Management.
4 Hoffman et al. (2012) Effect of proposed CO
2
emission reduction scenarios on
capital expenditure, Maritime policy & Management
5 DNV 2011, Technology Outlook 2020.
6 DNV 2012, Shipping 2020. http://www.dnv.com/press_area/press_
releases/2012/dnv_reveals_technology_uptake_towards_2020.asp
7 Dalsren, S., et al., (2009). Update on emissions and environmental impacts
from the international eet. The contribution from major ship types and
ports. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9,2171-2194, 2009.
- Endresen, et al. (2007), A historical reconstruction of ships fuel consumption
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8 IPCC, Chapter 5. IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Chapter 15,
Transport.
9 Endresen, ., et al. (2008) The environmental impacts of increased
international maritime shipping, past trends and future perspectives. OECD
conference, Mexico.
10 DNV report 2012-0719 Lifecycle Assessment of Alternative Fuels for Maritime
Applications.
11 DNV 2012-0719, Lifecycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of
Alternative Fuels for Maritime Applications
12 Buhaug et al. (2009), Second IMO GHG Study 2009. International Maritime
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13 This study considers both the international and domestic eet, but service
vessels (tugs, work boats etc.) and shing vessels are excluded. 88% of CO
2

emissions are covered by this eet.
14 The assumed eet build rates can vary (with uniform distribution) within a
range of 10%, compared to the baseline estimates by Eide et al. (2011).
The baseline estimates include a very moderate eet growth towards 2020 due
to overcapacity, and a return to normal in the following decades.
15 DNV report 2010-1800 Identifying and Overcoming Barriers to the
Implementation of Emission Reduction Measures in Shipping.
16 Experience from recent newbuilding projects suggest that the EEDI has
already impacted on the design of ships. This is because the ships being built
today will compete with the ships to be built in 5, 10 or 15 years, and hence
ships today must meet future standards to remain competitive.
17 DNV report 2011-1663 Maritime Fuel Price Projections to 2035.
18 DNV Report 2010-0324 Nuclear Powered Ships a feasibility study.
19 UNEP (2011). Bridging the emissions Gap A UNEP Synthesis Report.
20 DNV 2011, Technology Outlook 2020
21 DNV report 2011-1449 Alternative Fuels for Maritime Applications.
22 Eyring et al. (2005), Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of
future technologies on scenarios until 2050. Journal of Geophysical Research,
110, D17306.
23 Buhaug et al. (2009), Second IMO GHG Study 2009. International Maritime
Organization (IMO).
24 Eide et al. (2007), Ship emissions of the future. Report for EC QUANTIFY
Project, DNV.
Endnotes
Acknowledgements
We also acknowledge contributions from M. Acciaro, C. Flysand, E. Nyhus and P. Hoffmann. Central components of this work are based on the results
from the Low Carbon Shipping project, funded partly by the Norwegian Research Council, project number 200850/I40.
Det Norske Veritas
NO-1322 Hvik, Norway
Tel: +47 67 57 99 00
www.dnv.com
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