the polling company, inc.

/WomanTrend
Survey of 400 LVs of Virginias Tenth Congressional District
October 2014
1
TO: Citizens United Political Victory Fund

FROM: Kellyanne Conway, President & CEO
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend

DATE: October 20, 2014

RE: VA-10 Survey of 404 Likely Voters: Analysis

Overview
With roughly two weeks left until Election Day, Del. Barbara Comstock finds herself poised to
succeed retiring Rep. Frank Wolf in Congress. Comstock, who has been steadily increasing in
recent polls, hits the 50% mark in this telephone survey of 404 likely voters in Virginia-10. At
51%, Comstock leads Democratic nominee John Foust by 16% (51% - 35%), with third party
candidates taking a combined 4% and 10% saying they are firmly undecided or dont know.

Foust can be expected to gain votes, as he is underperforming what a generic Democrat should
take in this District. Still, the headwinds are against him. Comstock also enjoys a +10%
favorability rating (46% - 36%), while John Fousts is more split and at (33% - 34%). Foust is also
less well-known at this late stage.

One thing that wont help that is the DCCCs recent cancellation of its $2.8 million buy meant to
boost Foust
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, suggesting that they have lost faith in Fousts ability to win as well. Foust, a self-
funder, is on his own.

Comstocks lead is further evidence that the so-called war on women has run its course.
Comstock performs better among women than men, despite Fousts main line of attack against
Comstock that she is an anti-woman woman. Yet he is losing among women. Those women
may be especially animated about Fousts attack on Barbara Comstock that she has never had a
real job, despite her accomplishments as a self-made small businesswoman who put herself
through law school at night while raising young children at home.

Data Analysis
Comstock is better known, and regarded more favorably than Foust.

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings Comparison
TOTAL
FAVORABLE
TOTAL
UNFAVORABLE
HEARD OF, NO
OPINION
NEVER HEARD
OF
BARBARA
COMSTOCK
46% 36% 13% 4%
JOHN FOUST 33% 34% 19% 10%


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Roll Call: http://bit.ly/1s0x2xu

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend
Survey of 400 LVs of Virginias Tenth Congressional District
October 2014
2
Beyond her overall favorability, Comstock also enjoys positive favorability among both genders
(48%-32% among men, 44% - 40% among women) except for women over the age of 45 (44%
favorable, 45% unfavorable).

Comstock also has strong favorability ratings in all of the regions of the district, while being
most favored in the West region (53% - 32%).

The Republican also enjoys a
lead in favorability among
Independent voters. Among
them her favorability rating is
49% to 32%, while 15% have
heard of her but have no
opinion.

However, among the 8% of
those voters who are undecided
as to whom they will vote for on
November 4, they have an
unfavorable view of Comstock
by 31% - 26%. Another 29% of undecided voters have heard of her, but have not formed an
opinion yet.

John Fousts image is -3% among men (34% favorable, 37% unfavorable), while an equal
number of women are favorable and unfavorable (34%) of the Democrat candidate.

By age, Foust is seen as favorable only among those 45-54 (30% favorable, 29% unfavorable)
and those 55-64 (45% favorable, 35% unfavorable). All other age groups are unfavorable
toward Foust, with those 35-44 unfavorable toward him by 6 points (32% favorable, 38%
unfavorable).














48%
44%
32%
40%
13%
12%
4%
3%
MEN WOMEN
TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE
HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF
Barbara Comstock Image
16%
66%
20%
58%
2%
34%
17% 17%
18%
7%
11%
17%
COMSTOCK VOTERS FOUST VOTERS UNDECIDEDS
TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE
HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF
John Foust Image

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend
Survey of 400 LVs of Virginias Tenth Congressional District
October 2014
3

By race, Foust has a slightly more unfavorable than favorable image among whites (34%
favorable, 36% unfavorable), and is nearly twice as unliked as liked among Asians (15%
favorable, 27% unfavorable).


Barbara Comstock at 51%; 10% still undecided or dont know with two weeks to go.
Comstock garners a majority of voters (51%) as well as a 16% lead over her Democratic rival
John Foust. It should be noted that a generic Democrat could be expected to receive more than
40% of the vote come Election Day. Even with a lackluster campaign, Foust may still meet this
threshold with 8% of likely voters remaining undecided.





Barbara Comstock also holds a strong lead among every age group, except those 55-64 where
she trails Foust by 10% (49% - 39%). Although the youth have been a strong cohort for
Democratic candidates in recent times, Comstock is winning their votes by 47% - 32%.

Among the political parties, Comstock wins 89% of Republicans, nearly half of Independents
(49%), and almost one-in-five Democrats (19%).
51%
35%
2%
1% 1%
COMSTOCK FOUST BLAIS REDPATH EICKHOLT
59%
35%
53%
35%
COMSTOCK FOUST
MEN WOMEN
If the election for U.S. Congress were tomorrow, would you
vote for Republican Barbara Comstock, Democrat John Foust,
Libertarian Bill Redpath, Green Party Dianne Blais, or
Independent Bill Eickholt?

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend
Survey of 400 LVs of Virginias Tenth Congressional District
October 2014
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Methodology Statement
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend conducted a telephone survey of 404 likely voters of Virginias
10
th
Congressional District from October 17-18, 2014. Surveys were conducted using live interviewers at
a Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility. The margin is +/- 4.9% at the 95%
confidence level. Quotas were used to ensure proper representation of age, gender, race, region, and
party self-identification; the results were weighted slightly based on party self-identification.

19%
73%
49%
28%
89%
2%
COMSTOCK FOUST
DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS
WHO ARE THE UNDECIDED VOTERS?
Those who have never heard of Barbara Comstock (26%)
Those who have heard of Barbara Comstock, but have no
opinion of her (18%)
Those identifying as political Independents (17%)
Those who have never heard of John Foust (14%)
Residents of the Prince William/Manassas and West regions
(12%)