Review for Midterm Examination

Notes about the Examination:

- Time and date: 4:00 ~ 5:20 pm, Wednesday 10/22/2014
- Location: the class-meeting room
- Close books and notes
- A double-sided 8.5x11 cheat sheet is allowed
- Necessary tables will be provided
- Please bring a simple calculator with you to the exam
- Homework 1-3, Chapters 1-4
- To prepare for the exam, please review lecture notes, textbook, and your homework

Chapter 2: Probability
Conditional Probability of B given A is
) (
) (
) | (
A P
B A P
A B P

= .

Multiplication Rule:
) ( ) | ( ) ( A P A B P B A P =

Law of Total Probability:
) ' ( ) ' | ( ) ( ) | (
) ' ( ) ( ) (
A P A B P A P A B P
B A P B A P B P
+ =
+ =

Independence:
Two events A and B are independent if and only if
) ( ) ( ) ( B P A P B A P = .

Bayes' Theorem:
Let E
1
,E
2
,,E
k
be a collection of events which partition S. Let B be an event, P(B) =0. Then, for
any event E
j
, j=1,2,,k
) ( ) | ( ) ( ) | (
) ( ) | (
) | (
1 1 k k
j j
j
E P E B P E P E B P
E P E B P
B E P
+ +
= .
Example 1: (Conditional probability) (Review solutions in your class notes)
The head size and grip size are determined for randomly selected tennis racket purchaser at a
certain sporting goods store. We are given the data in the table below.
Grip Size (inches)
4 3/8 4 4 5/8
Head size Midsize .10 .20 .15
Oversized .20 .15 .20
a) What is the probability a mid-sized racket was purchased given a 4.5 inch grip was
purchased?
b) What is the probability a 4.5 inch grip was purchased given a mid-sized racket was
purchased?

Example 2: (Independence) (Review solutions in your class notes)
It is known that 30% of a certain companys washing machines require service while under
warranty, whereas only 10% of its dryers need such service. These are two independent events.
If someone purchases both a washer and a dryer made by this company,
a) What is the probability that both machines need warranty service?
b) What is the probability that neither machine needs service?

Example 3: (Bayes theorem) (Review solutions in your class notes)
Incidence of a rare disease: Only 1 in 1000 adults is afflicted with a rare disease for which a
diagnostic test has been developed. The test is such that, when an individual actually has the
disease, a positive result will occur 99% of the time, while an individual without the disease will
show a positive test result only 2% of the time. If a randomly selected individual is tested and
the result is positive, what is the probability that the individual has the disease?

More Practice Problems:

2-20
2-47
2-77
2-83
2-91
2-101
2-171

Chapter 3: Discrete Random Variable and Probability Distributions

Probability mass function (pmf) for a discrete random variable X is a function f given by
f(x) = P(X = x).

Cumulative distribution function (cdf) for a discrete r.v. X with density f(x), is defined by
( ) ( ) ( )
i
i
x x
F x P X x f x
s
= s =

.
Expected value (or the mean) of X is written as E[X] (or
X
) and is calculated as:

Variance of X, denoted V[X], or o
2


2 2 2 2 2 2 2
[ ] [( ) ] ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ]
x D x D
V X E X X f x x f x E X E X o
e e
= = = = =


Bernoulli Trials:
1. A series of n independent trials
2. Each trial has two outcomes, Success or Failure
3. The probability of success for a trial is p, 0<p<1, and is identical for all trials

Binomial Distribution
The number of successes in n Bernoulli trials, X, follows a binomial distribution.
If X~ Binomial(n, p)
f(x) = F(x) =

Mean and Variance:
E[X] = np V[X] = np(1-p)

Geometric Distribution
The number of trials until the first success, X, follows a geometric distribution.
If X~ Geometric( p)

f(x) = F(x) =

Mean and Variance:
2 2
1 (1 )
[ ] , [ ]
p q
E X V X
p p p

= = =

Negative Binomial Distribution
The number of trials until r success, X, follows a negative binomial distribution.

e e
= = =
D x D x
x X xP x xf X E ) ( ) ( ] [
If X~ Negative Binomial( r, p)

f(x) = F(x) =

Mean and Variance:
2
(1 )
[ ] , [ ]
r r p
E X V X
p p

= =
Hypergeometric Distribution
A random sample of size n is chosen from N items (the population), n s N, sampled without
replacement. Each item is either a success or a failure, and there are k successes in the
population. X is the number of successes in the sample, and follows a hypergeometric
distribution.
number of ways to select
successes and failures
from the population
( )
number of possible outcomes
in the experiment
where max(0 min
x
K N K n- x
x n x
P X x
N
n
,n-(N - K)) x (n,K)
| || |
| |

\ .\ .
= = =
| |
|
\ .
s s


Mean and Variance:
[ ] , [ ]
1
K K N K N n
E X n V X n
N N N N
| | | || || |
= =
| | | |

\ . \ .\ .\ .

Poisson Distribution
For a Poisson process,
=expected # of events in an interval (mean arrival rate) and > 0.
X = number of events in a time interval
and X~Poisson()
( ) 0,1, 2,....
!
x
e
P X x x
x

= = =

Mean and Variance:

[ ] , [ ] E X V X = =



Example 1: (Review solutions in your class notes)
Consider a production line for car parts where 10% of the output is defective and must be
scrapped, and the rest is good. Treat a defective part as a success. Suppose you sample 5
parts. What is the probability that exactly 2 of the five parts are defective? Calculate using the
pmf.

Example 2: (Review solutions in your class notes)
Suppose the probability that calls to a customer service call center will not go through is .05.
What is the expected number of calls a customer must make before being connected?

Example 3: (Review solutions in your class notes)
A pediatrician wishes to recruit 5 couples, each of whom is expecting their first child, to
participate in a new natural childbirth regimen. Let p = P(a randomly selected couple agrees to
participate). If p = 0.2, what is the probability that 15 couples must be asked before 5 are found
who agree to participate?

Example 4: (Review solutions in your class notes)
I wish to survey my class on whether they prefer more theory or more applications in the course.
Suppose I have a class of 25 students and I randomly select 5 students to tell me their preference.
Suppose 40% of the class prefers more theory.
a) What is the probability that 2 students of the five surveyed will prefer theory?
b) What is the probability that more than 2 students will prefer applications?

Example 5: (Review solutions in your class notes)
The number of tornadoes in the Midwest closely fits a Poisson distribution. In one 5-million
acre region, a meteorologist has found that annual swaths traced by tornadoes have historically
encompassed an area totaling 500 acres. The annual mean tornado intensity for the region is
=.0001 tornadoes per acre. Consider a city located in this tornado belt having an area of 8000
acres. What is the probability that it will be hit exactly once during the year?

More Practice Problems:
3-51
3-67
3-95
3-119
3-125
3-145
3-167
Chapter 4: Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Probability density function (pdf) of X is a function f(x) such that, for any two numbers a and b
with a s b,
( ) ( )
b
a
P a X b f x dx s s =
}

Cumulative distribution function (cdf) F(x) is defined for every number x by
( ) ( ) ( )
x
F x P X x f u du

= s =
}

Expected value (or the mean) of X is:
[ ] ( ) E X xf x dx

= =
}

Variance of X, denoted V[X], or o
2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2
[ ] [( ) ] ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ] V X E X X f x dx x f x dx E X E X o


= = = = =
} }


Normal distribution X~N(,o
2
)
2
2
( )
2
1
( ) for
2
x
f x e x

o
o t

= < <

E[X] = , V[X] = o
2

If X~ N(,o
2
), then Z=
) 1 , 0 ( ~ N
X
o

.
Notes:
(-z)=1- (z); P(Z>z)=1-P(Z<z); P(z
1
<Z<z
2
) = P(Z< z
2
) - P(Z< z
1
)
Example 1: (Review solutions in your class notes)
A quality characteristic of a product is normally distributed with mean and standard deviation
one. Specifications on the characteristic are 6 < x < 8. A unit that falls within specifications on
this quality characteristic results in a profit of C
0
=1. However, if x < 6 or if x > 8, the profit is 0.
Find the value of that maximizes the expected profit.

Example 2: (Review solutions in your class notes)
Suppose X is the breaking strength (newtons) of a material, and X is normally distributed with
mean 800 newtons and standard deviation of 10 newtons.
a) Suppose we need this material to have breaking strength of at least 772 newtons. What is the
probability that the breaking strength is at least 772 newtons.
b) What is the probability that this material has a breaking strength of at least 772 but not more
than 820?

Example 3: (Review solutions in your class notes)
1) Suppose a machine turns out bolts of mean diameter 1.5 cm and standard deviation of 0.01
cm. If bolts measuring over 1.52 cm are rejected as oversized, what proportion of bolts are
rejected in this way?
2) A machine is used to package sugar in 1 lb. bags. The standard deviation is 0.0025 lbs. To
which mean value should the machine be set so that at least 97% of the pages are over 1 lb.
in mass?

More Practice Problems:
4-7
4-23
4-55
4-69
4-77
4-101
4-103
4-119
4-141