P2JW35502D-0-R00500-2--------XA 12/21/2009 EE,MW,NY,SW,WE

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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Monday, December 21, 2009 R5

POLITICS

BackWhereWeStarted
Boththe Leftand theRightHadTheirMoments,But the Decade Started and Ended With a Polarized Nation
Political Pulse
WHAT WE BELIEVED Poll respondents who identified with each party and ideology

DEMOCRATS
Moderate Liberal Conservative

40%

PCT. IDENTIFYING
AS DEMOCRAT
20
1999
34%
2004 33%
2009 35% ’09
’00

REPUBLICANS
Moderate Liberal Conservative
70%

PCT. IDENTIFYING
AS REPUBLICAN
1999
27%
Associated Press

GOP Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.), right, looks on as his rival in the 2008 election, President Barack Obama,
meets with members of Congress to discuss immigration this summer at the White House in Washington.
By Gerald F. Seib
America’s politics have gone
on a wild, full-circle ride over the
past decade—a journey that has
left Americans just as divided as
they were at the outset, but
more cynical than before.
For a brief period after the ter-
rorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, it
appeared the decade would turn
out quite differently. In the wake
of that searing national trauma,
political divides were bridged,
ideological differences faded,
and a sense of genuine biparti-
sanship took hold.
But divisions soon reap-
peared. By some measures,
America’s two major parties are
now more polarized than ever,
and voters harbor deep doubts
about government’s ability to
solve basic problems. “However
bad we thought partisan polar-
ization was in the late 1990s,”
says William Galston, a political
scientist at the Brookings Institu-
tion, “it’s worse now.”
A Twisting Path
Perhaps the political system
is simply suffering from whip-
lash, for few spans in recent
American history have produced
as many hairpin turns along the
political highway. If the 1960s
were about Democratic domi-
nance, and the 1980s about Re-
publican resurgence, the past 10
years have been a period of
swings between the two.
The decade dawned with the
remarkable 2000 presidential
election, which proved the two
parties so evenly balanced that
the Supreme Court had to decide
the outcome.
That election, of course, was
settled in favor of Republican
George W. Bush, who had to deal
with a Congress virtually equally
divided between the two parties.
He promised to be a “uniter, not
a divider,” and for a time seemed
to be that. A landmark education
2004
30%
2009
23%
’09 0
’00
TS
INDEPENDENCons
Moderate ervative
Liberal
bill was passed because the con- who knew how to make deals.
servative president and a liberal Thus, a historic, $787 billion eco- 50%
icon, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, nomic-stimulus package passed
came together. early this year with exactly three
The 9/11 attacks pulled the Republican votes in all of Con- PCT. IDENTIFYING
country as well as its leaders gress. An equally historic piece AS INDEPENDENT
closer still. Democrats and Re- of legislation, the health-care 1999
publicans alike praised Presi- overhaul now working through 34%
dent Bush’s resolute response, Congress, may well pass with no 2004 10
30%
as well as his quick military in- Republican votes at all. 2009
cursion in Afghanistan. As that picture suggests, 36%
’00 ’09
Mr. Bush’s response to the when political power is balanced
age of terror, in turn, gave an so finely between the two par-
enormous political boost to his ties, they fight all the harder for
Republican party, helping usher every small advantage. That
in a period of Republican domi- leads them to jockey nonstop, HOW WE SAW OUR LEADERS Respondents’ views in a recent WSJ/ABC News poll
nance that had pundits speculat- which makes them less inclined Most respected Least respected
ing about the emergence of a to compromise—and more in-
long-term GOP majority. clined to punish those within Top 5
But the increasingly unpopu- their ranks willing to do so.
lar war in Iraq began to unravel “Politics 20 years ago was 28% Barack Obama George W. Bush 33%
that notion. By 2006, Democrats about the art of compromise,”
had stormed back to take control says Kenneth Duberstein, White
of both houses of Congress. Two House chief of staff for Republi-
years later, a collapsing economy
completed the public’s turn away
can Ronald Reagan. “Now com-
promise is a four-letter word be-
27% Colin Powell Dick Cheney 27%
from the Republicans. Barack cause it’s all about campaigning.”
Obama led a Democratic rout in In both parties, the ranks of
the 2008 election, becoming the moderates in the middle have
first presidential candidate of dwindled over the decade. Analy- 21% Bill Clinton Al Gore 19%
that party to win an outright ma- ses of congressional voting pat-
jority of the popular vote in 32 terns by Keith Poole, a political
years. Democratic majorities in scientist at the University of Cali-
both the House and Senate grew. fornia at San Diego, has found 17% George W. Bush Barack Obama 19%
Pundits promptly switched that the two parties are more po-
to speculation about a long-term larized than anytime since the
Democratic majority. But just Civil War. In the Senate, Mr.
one year later, such predictions Poole has found, there now is lit-
seem equally misplaced. Popular- erally no ideological overlap be- 14% Hillary Clinton Sarah Palin 16%
ity ratings of both the Demo- tween the two parties; the most
cratic president and the Demo- liberal Republican has a more
cratic Congress are sliding down- conservative voting pattern
ward. It seems inevitable that than does the most conservative 13% John McCain Bill Clinton 14%
Democrats will lose seats next Democrat.
year, in the first election of the Many voters appear to be re-
new decade, bringing the parties acting to the partisan divide by
back closer to where they
started: near parity.
turning away from both parties.
In the latest Wall Street Jour-
13% Sarah Palin Hillary Clinton 10%
nal/NBC News poll, 42% of those
The Excluded Middle surveyed identify themselves as
What seems to have been lost politically independent, up from
along the way is the ability of the 34% 10 years ago. 9% Dick Cheney Joe Biden 9%
two parties to find ways to com- Perhaps more telling: As the
promise—a result, perhaps, of decade ends, almost one in three
the disappearance of leaders say they “almost never” trust the
such as the late Sen. Kennedy, government to do the right thing. 8% Al Gore John McCain 5%

Tom Daschle, led Senate for Democrats 3% Joe Biden Colin Powell 1%
Two major themes have politically defined the past decade.
The most pervasive has been national security, including post-9/11; war
in Afghanistan and Iraq; intelligence gathering, the search for terrorists
and the treatment of prisoners. WHAT CONCERNED US* 1999 2009

jobs/economy 55%
The decade has also been consumed by calls for reform from the eco-
nomic and fiscal crises, energy and climate, taxes, immigration, health care Top five issues
and the search for equal rights in the gay community.
35% education
health care 40%
respondents
Media and technology have revolutionized American politics. The Inter- picked in WSJ/ABC 28% health care
net and cable programming have had an extraordinary influence on com- News polls
munication, fund-raising, organization and, ultimately, who gets elected
21% Social Security deficit/government spending 34%
Getty Images

and what gets passed. 17% the economy Iraq/Afghanistan 27%

A disconcerting trend is the erosion of the ‘middle,’ including political 17% moral decline national security 23%
moderates, the increasing difficulty in finding middle ground and the per-
centage of those in the middle class.
Another will be the continued globalization of all issues and the growing interdependence in governance on
the economy, energy, climate and nuclear proliferation.
WHO DONATED THE MOST† Largest political givers of the decade
—Mr. Daschle, former Democratic senator from South Dakota,
was majority leader from 2001 to 2003. To Democrats To Republicans
$35M ActBlue AT&T $18M
(fund-raising organization)

Bill Frist, led Senate for Republicans $25M American Fed. of State, County National Association $11M
The decade saw a dramatic cultural shift in how we view developmen- and Municipal Employees of Realtors
tal assistance around the world, led by the seemingly unlikely figures of
rock star Bono and George Bush. Developmental assistance defined by $20M Int’l Brotherhood of Elec. Workers United Parcel Service $10M
blind grants and hard power were replaced with accountability, economic
sustainability and the “soft power” of health and education.
This tectonic shift has been institutionalized by new creations such as $19M Service Employees Int’l Union Nat’l Auto Dealers Assoc. $10M
the Millennium Challenge Corporation, a transformative government en-
tity whose mission is to lift people out of poverty globally. The American
$17M Laborers Union Nat’l Beer Wholesalers Assoc. $10M
Bloomberg News

taxpayer understands smart investments in developing countries, where

transparency, measurements of results, sound economic principles and
democratic principles are preconditions to successful investment. Rather
than us giving people money and telling them how to do it, assistance be-
comes a partnership with the recipients. This is the new way of thinking
*In 1999, question was which issues will be the most important ‘in voting in next year's election for
about giving aid. Congress’; in 2009, question was which issue ‘should be the top priority for the federal government.’
The next decade will see continued broadening of developmental assistance, with the Obama administra- †Figures are for contributions from employee and political action committees to candidates,
tion’s commitment to invest in health systems and maternal and child health. parties and leadership PACs
—Mr. Frist, former Republican senator from Tennessee, Sources: Pew Research Center (party ID, ideology); WSJ/NBC News telephone polls
(top issues, most/least respected figures); Center for Responsive Politics (donors)
was majority leader from 2003 to 2007.
Randy Yeip/The Wall Street Journal

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