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Knowledge of Science
Source: http://zapatopi.net/lordkelvin.html
Image of Lord Kelvin is in the public domain.
Quick Check
Quick Check
Section A
Incidence and Prevalence
Incidence
Incidence Proportion
Incidence
per 1,000
1,000
Number of persons
at risk of developing
the disease during
that period of time
10
Incidence Proportion
Incidence proportion
A measure of risk
Example: number of sick people who ate egg salad
divided by the total number of people who ate egg salad
at a luncheon (time duration is implied)
Cumulative incidence
Example: number of people who have ever had asthma
divided by total number of people who were asked the
question about ever having asthma
Attack rate
Same as incidence proportion and often used in a disease
outbreak
It implies rate but is not actually a rate
11
Incidence Rate
13
Prevalence
Prevalence
per 1,000
Number of cases
of disease present
in the population at
a specified time
x 1,000
Number of persons
in the population
at that specified time
About Prevalence
Prevalence is a proportion
It measures the extent (amount) of the event (disease) in the
population in a specified time
The numerator includes both new and existing cases of
disease
Time is a descriptor of the measure but is not a part of the
denominator (does not use person-time)
Sometimes, the term prevalence rate is used even though it
is a proportion
Example: prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in Botswana in 2003
= 37.3%
Source: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/hea_hiv_aid_adu_pre_rat&int=-1
15
17
JAN
2004
May
Disease developed
July
Sept
Cured
Died
Nov
DEC
2004
Continued
18
Incidence/Prevalence
Incidences of Disease
Prevalence
Community Population
19
Incidence/Prevalence
Prevalence
Incidence/Prevalence
Prevalence
250
Prostate
200
150
Lung
100
50
Urinary bladder
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
22
250
200
150
Breast
100
Colon and rectum
50
Lung
Uterine corpus
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
Ovary
23
Cancer Prevalence
Source: http://cancercontrol.cancer.gov/ocs/prevalence/index.html
24
Prevalence of Characteristics
25
30
20
Women
10
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1995
1994
1992
1990
1985
1983
1979
1974
1965
Year
Redesign of survey in 1997 may affect trends.
Source: National Health Interview Survey, 19652001, National Center for Health Statistics, CDC, 2003.
26
50
40
30
20
10
2002
2000
1999
1998
Year
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
Source: Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System CD-ROM (19841995, 19961997, 1998, 1999) and Public Use
Data Tape (2000, 2002), National Centers for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention 1997, 1999, 2000, 2000, 2001, 2003.
27
28
Population
Point Prevalence
per 1,000
High SES
100
1,000
100
Low SES
60
1,000
60
29
Incidence
Average Duration
High SES
100
4/year
25 years
Low SES
60
20/year
3 years
30
Review Questions
31
Section B
Sources of Morbidity Data
33
34
35
36
4
NY Criteria
3
ARA Criteria
Male
Source: O'Sullivan & Cathcart, Ann Intern Med, 76:573, 1972.
Female
37
38
39
No.
Circumcised
37
Not circumcised
19
Total
56
29.2
Not
circumcised
No.
47
84
43.8
89
108
56.2
192
100.0
No.
136
Total
70.8
40
No.
Circumcised
282
5
Not circumcised
Total
287
36.3
Not
circumcised
No.
37
319
40.4
466
471
59.6
790
100.0
No.
503
Total
63.7
41
42
Census Definition/Data
Estimated Spanish Ancestry Population in New Mexico, Based on a
1970 U.S. Census (According to Which Census Definition Is Used)
Definition Used
Estimated Population
Birth and parentage
40,173
Spanish language
379,723
Spanish surname
324,248
Spanish origin
308,340
Spanish heritage
407,286
43
44
70
60
50
Corrected
40
30
20
Uncorrected
10
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
Year
Hysterectomy = removal of uterus
Source: Lyon and Gardner
45
Section C
Indices of Mortality
About Mortality
48
49
A) Cerebral hemorrhage
B) Nephritis
C) Cirrhosis of liver
51
ICD-9
Heart diseases
Malignant neoplasms
Cerebrovascular diseases
COPD
5. Accidents
6. Pneumonia and influenza
7. Diabetes
8. HIV
9. Suicide
10. Chronic liver disease and
cirrhosis
ICD-10
1. Heart diseases
2. Malignant neoplasms
3. Cerebrovascular diseases
4. Chronic lower respiratory
diseases
5. Accidents
6. Diabetes
7. Influenza and pneumonia
8. Alzheimers disease
9. HIV
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide)
52
53
Quick Check
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr53/nvsr53_15.pdf
54
557000
600000
577000
510000
500000
443000
400000
382000
311000
300000
268000
211000
200000
158000
118000
100000
41000
65000
85000
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
00
Years
55
Mortality Rate
56
20 deaths
from all causes in one year
x 1,000
12,000 persons in the
population at midyear
58
x 1,000
59
60
61
80
60
Stomach
40
Prostate
Colon and rectum
20
Pancrea
s
2000
1995
1990
1985
1975
1970
1965
Liver
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
Leukemia
1980
62
80
60
40
Uterus
20
Breast
Colon and rectum
Stomach
Ovary
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
Pancreas
63
64
18
Case fatality rate from X =
20
= 0.9 or 90%
65
Proportionate Mortality
Proportionate mortality
from cardiovascular
diseases in the U.S.
in 2000
66
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All Ages
<1
514
Heart Disease
2534
4554
6574
85+
Mortality rate
from all causes
Proportionate
mortality from heart
disease
30/1,000
15/1,000
10%
20%
Mortality rate
from heart disease
68
Mortality rate
from all causes
Proportionate
mortality from heart
disease
Mortality rate
from heart disease
30/1,000
15/1,000
10%
20%
3/1,000
3/1,000
69
Mortality rate
from all causes
Proportionate
mortality from heart
disease
20/1,000
10/1,000
30%
30%
Mortality rate
from heart disease
70
Mortality rate
from all causes
Proportionate
mortality from heart
disease
Mortality rate
from heart disease
20/1,000
10/1,000
30%
30%
6/1,000
3/1,000
71
72
73
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00016649.htm
74
Review Questions
75