WILSON PERKINS ALLEN OPINION RESEARCH

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Washington, DC 20003
405.286.6500
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WPA ID: 14-421

IWF_LA SENATE BRUSHFIRE STUDY_MQ_141125.DOCX

U.S. SENATE
LIKELY RUNOFF VOTERS
NOVEMBER 24-25, 2014

SAMPLE:
n=502 Likely Runoff Voters
MoE=4.4%
NO CODE/ASK ALL QUESTIONS
INTRODUCTION: Good evening. May I please speak with NAME FROM FILE? My name is ____________ and I'm
calling from WPA Research, a national public opinion firm. This evening we're conducting a short scientific survey in
Louisiana and we'd like to get your opinions. Were not selling anything and your responses will be completely
confidential.
1.

First, are you or any member of your immediate family a member of the news media, a Public Relations
company, or an active participant with any political campaign?
1.
2.

2.

Yes ........................................................................................................ TERMINATE

No/All other .....................................................................................................100%

As you may know, after no candidate received fifty percent of the vote in the primary election there will be a
runoff election for U.S. Senate on December 6th. Early voting has started for that December 6th runoff
election. If you have already voted in the December runoff election please let me know. If you have yet to
vote in the December runoff election please rate your likelihood to vote in the runoff election for U.S. Senate
and various state and local offices on a scale from zero to nine. Zero means you definitely won't vote in this
runoff election, five means you might or might not vote in the runoff election and nine means you will
definitely vote in the runoff election..
0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.

Zero...................................................................................................... TERMINATE
One ...................................................................................................... TERMINATE
Two ...................................................................................................... TERMINATE
Three.................................................................................................... TERMINATE
Four...................................................................................................... TERMINATE
Five ..................................................................................................................... 2%
Six ....................................................................................................................... 0%
Seven .................................................................................................................. 1%
Eight .................................................................................................................... 2%
Nine .................................................................................................................. 85%
DK/Refused ........................................................................................ TERMINATE
Already Voted ................................................................................................... 10%

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

Page 2 of 9

Now I am going to read you a list of names of people active in politics. After I read each one, please tell me if you
have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person. If I read you one you have never heard of, just tell me
and well move on to the next person.
IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK:
And, would you say you have a VERY (favorable/unfavorable) impression of that person, or just SOMEWHAT?
The (first/next) one isRANDOMIZE
Total
Fav

Very
Fav
1.

Somewhat
Fav
2.

No
Opinion
DNR
3.

Never
heard of
4.

Somewhat
Unfav
5.

Very
Unfav
6.

Total
Unfav

3.

Bill Cassidy

56%

35%

21%

8%

2%

9%

25%

34%

4.

Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew)

36%

26%

10%

5%

2%

10%

47%

57%

Now thinking about those people again, I am going to read a list of names and for each one please tell me if you
think of that person as ROTATE TOP-TO-BOTTOM, BOTTOM-TO-TOP a conservative, a moderate, or a liberal in their
political beliefs.
IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL ASK:
And would you say (choice) is VERY (conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)?
The (first/next) one isRANDOMIZE
Total
Conservative

Very
Conservative
1.

Somewhat
Conservative
2.

Moderate
3.

DK/Ref
DNR
4.

Somewhat
Liberal
5.

Very
Liberal
6.

Total
Liberal

IF Q3: 1-3 OR 5-6 ASK Q5:

n=490
5.
Bill Cassidy

61%

35%

26%

16%

14%

5%

5%

10%

IF Q4: 1-3 OR 5-6 ASK Q6:

n=493
6.
Mary Landrieu
(Lan-drew)

10%

6%

4%

16%

10%

16%

48%

64%

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

Page 3 of 9

As you may know, after no candidate received fifty percent of the vote in the primary election there will be a run-off
election on December 6th.
7.

IF Q2=5-9 ASK If the runoff election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote
RANDOMIZE
IF Q2=11 ASK: In the runoff election for U.S. Senate, for whom did you vote
DO NOT ASK PROBES CODE AS DEFINITELY (CHOICE)
IF Q2=11 AND REFUSED, ASK
I know your ballot is secret, but your responses are very important to this study which will help us understand
how people make decisions in elections. Your responses are completely confidential. Will you please
reconsider telling me for whom you voted? REPEAT CANDIDATES
Bill Cassidy, the Republican
or
Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew), the Democrat
IF CASSIDY/LANDRIEU, ASK:
And would you DEFINITELY vote for (choice) or just PROBABLY?
IF UNDECIDED/NOT SURE, ASK
If you had to choose today, who would you lean toward (repeat candidates)?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

TOTAL CASSIDY
TOTAL LANDRIEU

57%
33%

Definitely Cassidy
Probably Cassidy
Lean Cassidy
Hard Undecided/DK/Refused DNR
Lean Landrieu
Probably Landrieu
Definitely Landrieu

53%
2%
1%
10%
<1%
2%
31%

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

Page 4 of 9

And now thinking a little more about the candidates for U.S. Senate
ROTATE Q8-Q10 AND Q11-Q13 AS BLOCKS
8.
Would you say what you have seen, read, or heard recently about Bill Cassidy has given you a ROTATE more
or less END ROTATION favorable impression of him, or have you not heard much about Bill Cassidy recently?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE

TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE

26%
29%

Much more favorable

Somewhat more favorable
Havent seen, read, or heard much
DK/Refused DNR
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable

15%
11%
30%
15%
12%
18%

IF Q8:1-2 OR 5-6, ASK Q9-Q10

n=278
9.
And, can you tell me what you remember specifically seeing, reading or hearing about Bill Cassidy?
SEE VERBATIM RESPONSES
10.

And, can you recall where you read, heard about, or had contact with the Bill Cassidy campaign? Was it
ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES

4.
1.
6.
3.
5.
2.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.

TOTAL PAID MEDIA (Punches 1-5, 9)

TOTAL EARNED MEDIA (Punches 6-8)

89%
27%

Television ad you saw

Mail you received
News coverage of the election
Radio ad you heard
A phone call you received
E-mail you received
Something you read on a blog or news website
Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, or other social media
Someone from the campaign came to my door
Someone from the campaign talked to you at an event or rally
DK/REF DNR

78%
23%
21%
18%
7%
6%
4%
3%
3%
2%
1%

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

11.

Page 5 of 9

Would you say what you have seen, read, or heard recently about Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) has given you a
ROTATE more or less END ROTATION favorable impression of her, or have you not heard much about Mary
Landrieu (Lan-drew) recently?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE

TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE

22%
41%

Much more favorable

Somewhat more favorable
Havent seen, read, or heard much
DK/Refused DNR
Somewhat less favorable
Much less favorable

15%
7%
22%
15%
16%
25%

IF Q11:1-2 OR 5-6, ASK Q12-Q13

n=316
12.
And, can you tell me what you remember specifically seeing, reading or hearing about Mary Landrieu (Landrew)?
SEE VERBATIM RESPONSES
13.

And, can you recall where you read, heard about, or had contact with the Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew)
campaign? Was it ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES

4.
6.
1.
3.
2.
5.
8.
7.
10.
9.
11.

TOTAL PAID MEDIA (Punches 1-5, 9)

TOTAL EARNED MEDIA (Punches 6-8)

84%
38%

Television ad you saw

News coverage of the election
Mail you received
Radio ad you heard
E-mail you received
A phone call you received
Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, or other social media
Something you read on a blog or news website
Someone from the campaign talked to you at an event or rally
Someone from the campaign came to my door
DK/REF DNR

72%
28%
26%
21%
8%
8%
7%
6%
3%
1%
2%

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission

IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

Page 6 of 9

ROTATE Q14 & Q15

14.
Im going to read a description of a television ad that you may or may not have seen in the last few weeks,
and Id like you to tell me whether you remember seeing the ad:
A video recording of Bill Cassidy is playing with the narrator saying, Here is Bill Cassidy trying to sound cool
online talking about the economy. The narrator goes on to say that what Bill Cassidy doesnt tell you is that
he voted against the minimum wage and that he is against enforcing equal pay for women and that we
should turn some Louisiana colleges into prisons. The ad ends with the narrator saying not cool.
PROMPT IF NECESSARY: Do you recall seeing that ad on TV in the last few weeks?
1.
2.
3.
15.

Yes
DK/Refused
No

51%
1%
48%

Im going to read a description of a television ad that you may or may not have seen in the last few weeks,
and Id like you to tell me whether you remember seeing the ad:
An image of Senator Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) appears with the narrator saying she sold Obamacare to us
the Washington way, with false promises and deception and that Obamacares chief architect admits it.
Text appears which says that the Obamacare architect said we passed the law due to the stupidity of the
American voter. Then another image of Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) appears with the narrator saying that she
would still vote for Obamacare again. The narrator closes by saying that After eighteen years in Washington
it is time for Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew) to go.
PROMPT IF NECESSARY: Do you recall seeing that ad on TV in the last few weeks?
1.
2.
3.

Yes
DK/Refused
No

66%
3%
31%

Now, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only.
16.

Party Registration: PRE-CODE

1.
2.
3.

Republican
Independent/Other
Democrat

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

34%
17%
49%

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IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

17.

Page 7 of 9

And, would you say you are a ROTATE Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal END ROTATION in your political
beliefs?
IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL, ASK:
And, would you say you are VERY (conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
18.

TOTAL CONSERVATIVE
TOTAL LIBERAL

54%
12%

Very Conservative
Somewhat Conservative
Moderate
DK/Refused DNR
Somewhat Liberal
Very Liberal

34%
19%
29%
6%
5%
7%

And thinking back to the U.S. Senate Primary in November of 2014, for whom did you vote?
ROTATE FIRST THREE
Bill Cassidy, a Republican
Rob Maness (May-niss), a Republican
Mary Landrieu (Lan-drew), a Democrat
or
someone else
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

19.

40%
14%
32%
4%
4%
6%

Cassidy
Maness
Landrieu
Someone else
Dont Remember/Did not Vote DNR
Refused DNR

Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

White
Hispanic, Mexican, Latino, Spanish
African-American
Asian
Other (specify) _________
Refused DNR

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

68%
<1%
29%
0%
1%
2%

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IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

20.

In what year were you born? RECORD EXACT FOUR DIGIT RESPONSE; RECODE INTO CATEGORIES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

21.

Male
Female

44%
56%

CD 1
CD 2
CD 3
CD 4
CD 5
CD 6

16%
16%
17%
16%
16%
17%

Media Market: PRE-CODE

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

24.

5%
11%
14%
18%
24%
16%
9%
3%

Congressional District: PRE-CODE

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

23.

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75 or over
Refused DNR

Sex: BY OBSERVATION
1.
2.

22.

Page 8 of 9

Alexandria
Baton Rouge
Lafayette
Lake Charles
Monroe El Dorado
New Orleans
Shreveport

6%
22%
13%
7%
10%
31%
12%

Vote History: PRE-CODE

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

0 of 4
1 of 4
2 of 4
3 of 4
4 of 4

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

3%
10%
14%
27%
46%

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IWF/Likely Runoff Voters/1835/8410

25.

Page 9 of 9

Interview Method: PRE-CODE

1.
2.

Cell
Landline

2014 -- Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

25%
75%

Confidential do not copy or distribute without permission