Jacksonville Crucial to Rick Scotts Re-election

Components of 2014 Rick Scott Vote for Governor in Duval County

Jacksonville University Social Science Research Center

The Democratic and Republican percentage totals for the past two Florida governors race were remarkably similar statewide:
2010 48% Scott (R)/47% Sink (D)
2014 49% Scott (R)/48% Crist (D)
But Jacksonville proved crucial to Scotts 2014 victory:
2010 51% Scott (R)/46% Sink (D)
2014 54% Scott (R)/41% Crist (D)
Scott ran 3 percentage points higher in Jacksonville than the rest of the state in 2010 (48% vs. 51%) but that spread increased to 5
percentage points by 2014 (49% vs. 54%). Similarly, his Democratic opponent, Alex Sink ran 1 percentage point lower in
Jacksonville than the rest of the state in 2010 but Charlie Crist was 7 percentage points lower in Jacksonville than the rest of
Florida. The maps above illustrate the distribution of two-party support across Jacksonville in 2014 for the major candidates.
These are the same mapsthe map on the left presents a clearer picture while the right one contains geographic markers to help
identify areas. The data for these precinct-level maps were extracted from the online reports by the Supervisor of Elections.

Scotts improved 2014 showing in Jacksonville reflects the greater Republican attention to the area both in terms of candidate
appearances and campaign resources like TV advertising, yard signs and mailers. The Crist campaign focused primarily on south
Florida and his lack of support in Jacksonville is a consequence. Statewide, Republican affiliated groups spent about twice as
much as Democratic ones on the campaign for governor.
The party distribution of the vote for governor in 2014 was similar to the presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The urban core
of the city was heavily Democratic but it becomes progressively Republican as one moves out from the center.
An interesting parallel can be seen in the outcome of the proposed Medical Marijuana Amendment to the Florida Constitution:

The precincts voting most heavily for Crist also tended to have the greatest support for the proposed amendment. It was more
popular among Democrats than Republicans and blacks supported it more than whites. According to the statewide Exit Polls,
71% of Democrats voted Yes compared to 40% of Republicans and 65% of Independents; 69% of blacks supported the
proposed amendment compared to 56% of whites and 60% of Hispanics. Of course age was the largest factor in the support
differential: all age groups under 65 supported the measure by more than the 60% threshold necessary for passage but the seniors
only voted 38% Yes. All together the amendment only garnerd 58% statewide.