OECD says Industrialized Economies to Recover in Next Year

A new report predicts the United States and other industrialized

economies could bounce back faster than previously predicted next year,
with Asia driving the recovery. Our correspondent has more for VOA on
the latest assessment by the Paris-based Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development. The Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development finally had some good news to deliver to
industrialized nations emerging from their worst economic crisis in half
a century.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.5 percent in 2013 and 2.8
percent in 2014 - after contracting 2.5 percent this year.
The Japanese economy is also expected to bounce back to positive
growth of 1.8 percent next year, after shrinking 5.3 percent in 2012. The
16 European Union countries sharing the euro currency will grow more
modestly, at 0.9 percent in 2013 and 1.7 percent the following year.
By contrast, China's economy is expected to grow a strong 9 percent
next year, and 9.3 percent in 2013, powering the world rebound.
Overall, the OECD revised its assessment upward for world growth at
3.4 percent in 2013, compared to the 2.3 percent it predicted in June. But
the news is not all good. The OECD's chief economist Jorgen Elmeskov
says unemployment in the 30-member group will remain high.
"In countries like the United States, where there has been a massive
labor shakeout over the past year or two, there we have unemployment
responding rapidly to recovery, and unemployment coming down
relatively soon," said Jorgen Elmeskov. "But in other countries where
enterprises have been hoarding labor, there we would not expect
unemployment to respond to the recovery any time soon and therefore
unemployment goes on rising."
Even in the United States, unemployment will be at 9.9 percent next
year, before dropping slightly in 2012. The OECD predicts the jobless
rate in the eurozone will be higher - up to 10.8 percent by 2013.Many
OECD members are also saddled with high government debt, partly due
to massive economic-stimulus measures.

Organizaia pentru Cooperare i Dezvoltare Economic susine c

economiile industrializate se vor recupera/stabiliza anul viitor
Un nou raport prezice c Statele Unite i alte economii
industrializate i-ar putea reveni /stabiliza mai repede dect s-a anticipat
anul viitor, iar Asia este lider n acest proces de recuperare.
Corespondentul nostru are mai mult informaie pentru Vocea Americii
despre cea mai recent evaluare efectuat de Organizaia pentru
Cooperare i Dezvoltare Economic cu sediul la Paris. OCDE a avut
nite veti bune pentru naiunile industrializate ce a fost cauzat de cea
mai grav criz economic de jumtate de secol .
Economia SUA urmeaz sa creasca cu 2,5% n 2013 i cu 2,8 % n
2014 - dup contractarea/o scdere de 2,5 % n acest an.
Economia Japoniei, de asemenea, urmeaz sa i revin napoi la o
cretere pozitiv de 1,8% anul viitor , dup o scdere cu 5,3% n 2012 .
Cele 16 de ri ale Uniunii Europene care au moneda unic euro va
crete mai puin, adic pn la 0,9% n 2013 i 1,7% anul urmtor .
n schimb , economia Chinei urmeaz sa creasca puternic cu 9 la sut
anul viitor , i cu 9,3 la sut n 2013 normaliznd aceast situaie. n
general, OCDE a afirmat c economia mondial va crete ascendent la
3,4 %n 201 , n comparaie cu 2,3% ce a prezis n luna iunie. Dar nu
toate vetile sunt mbucurtoare. Seful departamentului economic
din cadrul OCDE, Jorgen Elmeskov spune c omajul n grupul de 30
de membri va rmne ridicat.
"n rile precum Statele Unite, unde s-a nregistrat o reducere
masiv a locurilor munc in ultimul an sau doi , omajul rspunde
rapid la recuperare , i nivelului omajul scade relativ repede", a
declarat Jorgen Elmesko. " Dar, n alte ri n care ntreprinderile au
pstrat locurile de munc, nu ne ateptm ca omajul s se recupereze
prea curnd i , prin urmare, omajul continu s creasc. "
Chiar i n Statele Unite , omajul va fi de 9,9% anul viitor, nainte
de a scdea uor n 2012. OCDE estimeaz c rata omajului n zona
euro va fi mai mare - de pn la 10,8% ctre anul 2013. Foarte mul i
memberi ai OCDE sunt de asemenea, mpovrai cu datorii publice
foarte mari, cauzate parial de msurie masive de stimulare economic.

Deflation returns to the Japanese economy

Deflation has returned to the Japanese economy for the first time since 2006,
the government has warned. The Cabinet Office said the falling prices could hurt
the recovery of the economy, which left recession in the second quarter of this
year. The government's announcement came as the Japanese central bank kept
interest rates on hold at 0.1%. The Bank of Japan said the Japanese economy was
continuing to be helped by policy measures at home and abroad. Japan's economy
grew by 4.8% in the July-September period - the second consecutive quarter of
growth.
The Cabinet Office said in a statement that "Japan is in a mild deflationary
situation". Keisuke Tsumura, parliamentary secretary of the Cabinet Office, said
the government would now work with the central bank to tackle the situation, but
that no plans had yet been decided. "We have no specific ideas in mind at the
moment," he said. "It will depend on how discussions develop in the
future."Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said the situation was a concern. "The
recent price falls are not right, and worrisome," he said. "This is one of the major
policy issues right now."

Deflation is, as it sounds, the opposite of inflation,

meaning that the general level of prices in a country is falling. Declining prices
might sound like good news for consumers, but in fact this is bad for everyone. As
people wait for prices to fall still further before buying consumer goods, it leads to
a vicious circle of decreased spending and increased unemployment. Japan has a
history of struggling with deflation. The 1990s are often referred to as Japan's "lost
decade" because of its 10-year struggle with falling prices. It followed a collapse in
prices in the housing market and the stock market at the end of the 1980s. The
central bank was criticised for not acting fast enough to cut interest rates.

Deflaia revine la economia japonez

Guvernul a avertizat c eflaie a revenit la economia japonez pentru prima dat
din.ncepnd cu anul 2006. Cabinet Office/Cabinetul Minitrilor a declarat c
scderea preurilor ar putea afecta redresarea economiei , care a provocat recesiune
n al doilea trimestru al acestui an . Guvernul a anunat acest lucru pentru c banca
centrala japoneza a meninut ratele dobnzilor la 0,1 %. Banca Japoniei a
declarat c economia japonez a continuat s fie ajutat de msuri politice pe
teritoriul acesteia i n strintate. Economia Japoniei a crescut cu 4,8% n perioada
iulie-septembrie cel de-al doilea trimestru consecutiv de cretere.
Cabinet Office/Cabinetul Minitrilor a declarat c " Japonia se afl ntr-o
situaie deflaionist usoara/moderat " . Keisuke Tsumura, este secretarul
parlamentar al Cabinetului ,de Mintri a declarat c guvernul colabora cu banca
central pentru a remedia situaia, dar nu a fost nc facut nici un plan pentru
aceasta. " Nu avem idei exacte n minte n acest moment ", a spus el . " Aceasta va
depinde de discuiile ce vor avea loc n viitor." Ministrul de finante Hirohisa Fujii a
declarat c situatia este ngrijorare. " Scderile recente ale preurilor nu sunt
corecte , si ingrijoratoare ", a spus el . "Aceasta este una dintre problemele cele
majore n domeniul politic la moment. " Deflaia este opusul inflaiei , ceea ce
nseamn c nivelul general al preurilor ntr-o ar este n scdere. Preurile n
scdere ar putea fi o veste bun pentru consumatori, dar , de fapt, acest lucru este
ru pentru toat lumea . Pe masura ce oamenii a teapt ca pre urile s scad i mai
mult inainte de a cumpara bunuri de larg consum, conduce la un cerc vicios de
scdere a cheltuielilor i creterea omajului. Japonia s-a confruntat cu deflaia.
Anii 1990 reprezint pentru Japonia un " deceniu pierdut " din cauza luptei sale de
scderea preurilor de ce a durat 10 ani . A urmat prbuirea/scderea pre urilor de
pe piaa imobiliar i piata de capital la sfritul anilor 1980 . Banca central a fost
criticat pentru c nu acioneaz suficient de rapid pentru a reduce ratele dobnzilor.

World economies rebound but China set for best growth

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says
growth and recovery are expected in 2012 in just about all world regions. For its 30
member countries, rich nations including the US and UK, it has more than doubled
its growth forecast to 1.9% for next year, from 0.7%. But the OECD warns
developed nations not to expect a smooth ride. It said growth was being "held back
by still substantial headwinds" and would be "modest" for some time. The very
measures that are helping richer nations to recover pose risks to that recovery, the
OECD says. The UK, for example, needed to come up with a concrete plan to ease
concerns about the stability of the public finances, it added.
The OECD said the effectiveness of the UK's asset purchase programme - the
so-called quantitative easing programme - was uncertain. The main danger for rich
countries is unemployment, according to the OECD's economic outlook. In the US,
people are expected to continue to lose their jobs at a faster rate than new ones are
created until sometime in the first part of next year. For the European Union, the
picture is even worse. Unemployment may continue to rise in that region until
2012. A very different economic outlook is forecast for key emerging nations.
China can expect to grow by 10%, India by more than 7%. The other two stand-out
nations are Brazil and Russia. The OECD expects Brazil's economy to rebound and
expand by almost 5% after stagnating this year. Russia is also predicted to see that
kind of economic improvement next year. But its turnaround will be even more
dramatic. This year, it has experienced one of the worst economic slumps in the
world - contracting by almost 9%. But those four so-called Bric countries are not
part of the 30-strong OECD club. The one member nation whose economy should
perform vigorously in 2010 is also an eastern one: South Korea should rebound to
grow by 4.5% in both 2012 and 2013, after ending this year with almost no growth.

Economile globale se redreseaz, dar China a nregistrat cea mai nalt

cretere
Organizaia pentru Cooperare i Dezvoltare Economic ( OECD ), afirm c
creterea i recuperarea (economiei) sunt ateptate n 2012 n aproape toate
regiunile lumii. Cele 30 de state member, naiunile cu nivel na t de dezvoltare,
inclusiv SUA i Marea Britanie , a dublat previziunile de cretere la 1,9% pentru
anul viitor , de la 0,7 % . Dar OCDE avertizeaz rile dezvoltate s nu se a tepte
la o cale fr obstacole. Acesta a spus cretere a fost " inut n loc de anumite
turbulene substaniale " i ar fi " modest" pentru ceva timp. Msurilr care ajut
naiunile bogate s se recupera riscurilor expuse de aceast recuperare, a afirmat
OCDE. Marea Britanie, de exemplu , este nevoie de a ntocmi un plan concret
pentru a uura preocuprile legate de stabilitatea finanelor publice, a adugat
acesta
OCDE a declarat eficacitatea programului de achiziionare a activelor din
Marea Britanie - aa-numitul program de relaxare cantitativ - a fost incert.
Principalul pericol pentru rile bogate este omajul, n funcie de perspectivele
economice al OCDE. n SUA , oamenii urmeaz s-i piard locurile de munc mai
rapid decat pe cele noi ce sunt create n prima parte a anului viitor . Pentru Uniunea
European , situaia este chiar mai dificil. omajul ar putea continua s creasc n
aceast regiune pn n 2012 . O perspectiv economicfoarte diferit este prevzut
pentru naiunile emergente . China urmeaz s creasc cu 10 % , India cu mai mult
de 7 % . Alte dou naiuni sunt Brazilia i Rusia. OECD afirm ca economia
Braziliei urmeaz sa-si revina si sa se extinda cu aproape 5 %, dup stagnarea din
acest an . Pentru Rusia este , a prezis de asemenea, o mbuntire economic
pentru anul viitor . Dar redresare/ntoarcere sa va fi chiar mai spectaculoas. n
acest an , a cunoscut una dintre cele mai grave scaderi economice din lume
contractante/ micorndu-se cu aproape 9 % . Dar cele patru aa - numitele rile
BRIC nu fac parte din cei 30 de membrii ai OCDE . O ar membr a crei
economie ar trebui s cerasc puternic n 2010 este , de asemenea, o ar din est:
Coreea de Sud ar trebui s se redreseze i s creasc cu 4,5% att n 2012 ct i n
2013 , dup ce se ncheie acest an fr a nregsitra aproape nici o cretere .