Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

www.elsevier.com/locate/wasman

Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing

urban region with system dynamics modeling
Brian Dyson, Ni-Bin Chang

Department of Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, MSC 213, Kingsville, Tx 78363, USA
Accepted 25 October 2004
Available online 1 January 2005

Abstract
Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation.
Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite
challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insucient budget and unavailable
management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs
intangible. To eectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing
socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fullling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach system dynamics modeling for the prediction of solid
waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development
city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming
one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with ve dierent solid waste generation models
using a system dynamics simulation tool Stella. Research ndings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may
cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.
2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The prediction of municipal solid waste generation
plays an important role in a solid waste management.
Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with
regard to the generation trends facing many fastgrowing regions is quite challenging. In addition to population growth and migration, underlying economic
development, household size, employment changes,
and the impact of waste recycling would inuence the
solid waste generation interactively. The development
of a reliable model for predicting the aggregate impact

Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 361 5933898 (o)/4553179 (c).

E-mail address: nchang@even.tamuk.edu (N.-B. Chang).

0956-053X/$ - see front matter 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2004.10.005

of economic trend, population changes, and recycling

impact on solid waste generation would be a useful advance in the practice of solid waste management.
Traditional forecasting methods for solid waste generation frequently count on the demographic and socioeconomic factors on a per-capita basis. The per-capita
coecients may be taken as xed over time or they
may be projected to change with time. Grossman et al.
(1974) extended such considerations by including the effects of population, income level, and the dwelling unit
size in a linear regression model. Niessen and Alsobrook
(1972) conducted similar estimates by providing some
other extensive variables characterizing waste generation. But dynamic properties in the process of solid
waste generation cannot be fully characterized in those
model formulations. Econometric forecasting, one of

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B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

the alternatives to static models, is an approach in

which the future forecasts are derived from current forecasts of the independent variables themselves (Chang
et al., 1993). It covers part of the dynamic features in
forecasting analysis. When recycling impact is phenomenal, intervention analysis may account for the varying
trends of solid waste generation under uncertainty
(Chang and Lin, 1997). Such an analysis creates profound impacts in dealing with the possible structure
change of solid waste generation trends in metropolitan
regions. To implement those traditional statistical forecasting methods, however, it would require collecting
thorough socioeconomic and environmental information before the forecasting analysis can be performed.
In many cases, municipalities might not have sucient
budget and management capacity to maintain a complete database of solid waste quantity and quality in
support of such needs on a long-term basis.
Most traditional statistical forecasting models, such
as the geometry average method, saturation curve
method, least-squares regression method, and the curve
extension method, are designed based on the conguration of semi-empirical mathematical models. The structure of these models is simply an expression of
cause-eect or an illustration of trend extension in order
to verify the inherent systematic features that are recognized as related to the observed database. In light of the
evolution of structured or semi-structured forecasting
techniques, the synergy of fuzzy forecasting and grey dynamic modeling is viewed as a promising approach for
handling forecasting issues under uncertainty. The grey
dynamic model was developed earlier simply to resolve
the data scarcity issue (Deng, 1982). It is particularly designed for handling situations in which only limited data
are available for forecasting practice and system environments are not well-dened or fully understood. In
conjunction with fuzzy regression analysis, a revised dynamic forecasting method grey fuzzy dynamic modeling that is suitable for the situation when only very
limited samples are available for forecasting practice,
was demonstrated to handle the dynamic prediction
analysis of municipal solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy (Chen and Chang, 2000).
When the database is not sucient to support traditional statistical forecasting analyses yet ample enough
to run several grey dynamic models with dierent natures, there is a need to integrate those separate dynamic
eorts as a whole that may be able to account for the
interrelationships among relevant dynamic features
inuential for municipal solid waste generation. Such
concatenation enables us to explore the interactions
among a variety of socio-economic, environmental,
and managerial factors when we still have to handle
the data scarcity issue. This study presents a new approach system dynamic modeling for the prediction
of municipal solid waste generation in an urban area

based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact

on sustainable development city wide, the practical
implementation was accessed by a case study in the city
of San Antonio, Texas (USA), which is one of the fastgrowing regions in North America. It presents various
trends of municipal solid waste generation associated
with ve dierent solid waste generation models using
a system dynamics simulation tool Stella. Discrepancies embedded in the prediction matrix based on those
models may provide obvious clues in a form of interval
number to address possible ranges of uncertainty in municipal solid waste generation.

2. Methodology
The method of system thinking has been used for over
30 years (Forrester, 1961). It provides us with eective
tools for better understanding those large-scale complex management problems. System dynamics, being designed based on system thinking, is a well-established
methodology for studying and managing complex feedback systems. It requires constructing the unique causal
loop diagrams or stock and ow diagram to form a
system dynamics model for applications. Relevant work
of how to develop system dynamics models can be found
in the literature (Forrester, 1961, 1968; Randers, 1980;
Richardson and Pugh, 1981; Mohapatra, 1994).
To build a system dynamics model, one should identify a problem and develop a dynamic hypothesis
explaining the cause of the problem. The mode formulation is normally designed to test a computer simulation
model with regard to alternative policies in the problem.
Simulation runs in a system dynamics model is governed
entirely by the passage of time. Such a time-step simulation analysis takes a number of simulation steps along
the timeframe to update the status of system variables
of concern as a result of system activities. When the initial conditions are assigned for those variables, which
denote the state of the system, the model may start to
produce the related consequences for those system variables based on the initiation of action and the ow of
information.
System dynamics modeling has been used to address
practically every sort of feedback system, including business systems (Sterman, 2000), ecological systems (Grant
et al., 1997), social-economic systems (Forrester, 1969,
1971; Meadows, 1973), agricultural systems (Qu and
Barney, 1998; Saysel et al., 2002), political decisionmaking systems (Nail et al., 1992), and environmental
systems (Vizayakumar and Mohapatra, 1991, 1993; Vezjak et al., 1998; Ford, 1999; Wood and Shelley, 1999;
Abbott and Stanley, 1999; Deaton and Winebrake,
2000; Guo et al., 2001). In terms of environmental concerns, the application matrix has covered several issues,

B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

including environmental impact analysis of coalelds

(Vizayakumar and Mohapatra, 1991, 1993), lake eutrophication assessment (Vezjak, 1998), pesticide control
(Ford, 1999), wetland metal balance (Wood and Shelley,
1999), groundwater recharge (Abbott and Stanley,
1999), lake watershed management (Guo et al., 2001),
river pollution control (Deaton and Winebrake, 2000),
and solid waste management (Mashayekhi, 1993; Sudhir
et al., 1997; Karavezyris et al., 2002). Within the solid
waste management regime, Mashayekhi (1993) explored
a dynamic analysis for analyzing the transition in the
New York State solid waste system. Sudhir et al.
(1997) further employed a system dynamics model to
capture the dynamic nature of interactions among the
various components in the urban solid waste management system, and Karavezyris et al. (2002) developed a
methodology to incorporate qualitative variables such
as voluntary recycling participation and regulation impact quantitatively. The model provides a platform for
examination of various structural and policy alternatives
for sustainable solid waste management. More applications in dierent topical areas can be found in System
Dynamics Review (Abbott and Stanley, 1999).
Most computer simulation applications using system
dynamics models rely on the use of the software Vensim and Stella, in which the mechanisms of system
dynamics can be handled by a user-friendly interface.
These model development procedures are designed
based on a visualization process that allows model
builders to conceptualize, document, simulate, and analyze models of dynamic systems. They oer a exible
way for building a variety of simulation models from
causal loops or stock and ow. The dynamic relationships between the elements, including variables, parameters, and their linkages, can be created onto the
interface using user-friendly visual tools. The feedback
loops associated with these employed variables can be
visualized at every step throughout the modeling process. Simulation runs are carried out entirely along the
prescribed timeline. At the end, some designated system
variables of interest are brought up to date for demonstration and policy evaluation.
While dynamic systems models may of necessity be
complex, their complexity is achieved through combinations of simpler sub-models linked to simulate the
system in question. These sub-models are themselves
dynamic systems models exhibiting specic systems
behaviors such as linear, exponential, and logistic
growth or decay, overshoot and collapse, and oscillation (Deaton and Winebrake, 2000). In the present
study, the dynamic models presented characterize solid
waste generation as exhibiting the behavior of linear
growth. In these models the concept of feedback within
the system is not explored due to the diculty of linking waste generation per se directly back to consumption activities.

671

3. Case study
3.1. Overview of the study area
NAFTA is a comprehensive trade agreement that improves virtually all aspects of doing business within
North America after being implemented on January 1,
1994. Tremendous economic growth along the USMexico border region has been observed since then. Growth
associated with population increases in Mexico (the
Maquiladoras), and in the US (the river corridor along
Laredo, McAllen, and Brownsville) very recently due
to NAFTA related activities is apparent in the Rio
Grande/Rio Bravo region. Active economic activities
due to the impact of NAFTA have been fast extended
from the USMexico border region to the Harlingen,
San Antonio, and Corpus Christi areas in Texas. In
1995, due to the increasing trend of municipal solid
waste generation, the City of San Antonio implemented
a voluntary recycling program to help reduce the
amount of waste being landlled; thus extending the life
of the landlls. Revenue generated from the sale of recycled material would be expected to oset the operating
costs. However, due to poor participation from the city
residents, not enough income was generated to justify
the continued operation of the recycling program. Ending the program, however, would shorten the lifespan of
the landlls; therefore the City is considering building a
material recovery facility (MRF) to continue the recycling program without requiring the support of the city
residents.
For solid waste collection purposes, the City of San
Antonio is divided into four service areas (see Fig. 1);
Northloop, Northwest, Southcentral and Southeast.
Solid waste is collected in each service area and sent to

Fig. 1. City of San Antonio service centers, landlls, and transfer

station.

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B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

a service center in that area. From the service center, the

waste is transferred to three landlls/transfer stations.
With the implementation of a material recycling facility
some or all of the collected solid waste would be rst
routed from a service center or community drop-o station to the MRF where mechanical separation of recyclable material would ensue. Remaining unrecyclable
material would then be routed to the landlls. Two potential locations for siting the proposed MRF are indicated in Fig. 1. To plan the capacity of the MRF, it is
necessary to perform an accurate estimation of the
amount of solid waste to be generated in the City of
San Antonio by the year 2010 (i.e., the target year in
planning).
3.2. System complexity
Simulation of municipal solid waste generation is
predicated based on the contributing factors of population growth, household income, people per household, and economic activity. Dennison et al. (1995)
found that waste generation on a per capita basis is
inversely related to household size. Sudhir et al.
(1997) described the links between these parameters
and municipal solid waste generation as follows: economic activity and population growth aect household
income and household income impacts per capita
waste generation; and higher income households tend
to produce higher amounts of waste (Sudhir et al.,
1997). But it is believed that higher income households
tend to achieve higher participation rates of recycling.
For example, Saltzman et al. (1993) found a positive
relationship with rising income and newspaper recy-

Table 2
Employment growth in San Antonio after NAFTA implementation
(BLS, 2003)
Year

Employment (jobs)

Growth (%)

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

640,537
668,235
668,646
696,192
712,224
728,379
743,056

4.32
0.06
4.12
2.30
2.27
2.02

Average growth (%)

2.52

cling and Schultz et al. (1995) in a review article cite

numerous studies reporting a signicant positive
relationship between rising income and increased
recycling eort. The situation could be further complicated if there is a recycling program underway that is
mandated by law or regulation. Considering interactions among a number of related social, economic,
Table 3
Increase in exports to NAFTA partners (NAFTA, 2000)
Year

NAFTA exports (millions)

Growth (%)

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

$24,675
$29,379
$28,794
$34,545
$40,706
$46,654
$52,096

19.06
1.99
19.97
17.83
14.61
11.66

Average growth (%)

13.53

Table 1
US Census data for San Antonio allocated into solid waste collection service centers
Population count

Median income H/hold

Avg capita/H

Tonnes count

1980 Census SF-3 by census tract

Northloop service center
Northwest service center
Southcentral service center
Southeast service center
Total population

232,177
144,791
232,550
176,505
786,023

$18,734
$16,461
$9436
$10,194

$39,150
$34,400
$19,719
$21,303

2.71
3.13
3.61
3.10

38,745
45,665
37,362
33,211
154,983

1990 Census SF-3 by census tract

Northloop service center
Northwest service center
Southcentral service center
Southeast service center
Total population

308,511
210,494
239,102
177,827
935,933

$32,589
$28,445
$15,921
$17,381

$42,937
$37,477
$20,976
$22,900

2.31
2.60
3.14
2.57

56,756
66,890
54,728
48,648
227,021

2000 Census SF-3 by census tract

Northloop service center
Northwest service center
Southcentral service center
Southeast service center
Total population

411,417
290,135
259,969
183,125
1,144,646

$48,791
$43,156
$25,477
$27,428

$48,791
$43,156
$25,477
$27,428

2.55
2.83
3.45
2.92

74,620
87,945
71,955
63,960
298,478

CPI-2000

a
Normalized income level based on US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, DC 20212 Consumer Price Index 2000,
average.

B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

Converter
Stock

Flow 1

Flow 2

Fig. 2. Stella diagram showing stocks, ows and converters.

Table 4
Simulation models used to estimate the solid waste generation in 2010
(tonnes/year)
Models

Driving factor in generation/service center

1
2
3
4
5

Total income per service center

People per household
Historical amount generated
Income per household
Population

673

environmental, managerial, geographical, and regulatory factors may further compound such an understanding. They are complex not only because all
factors are simultaneously involved and aected by
each other but because they dynamically occur over
time.
To develop a predictive statistical regression model
for the four service center areas we will have to rely
on the historical population and income data provided
by the US Census for the years, 1980, 1990, and 2000
only. However, statistical issues, specically a small degree of freedom, prohibits trying to include more than
two explanatory variables in the model due to the scarcity of datasets. With no other reliable databases available in this case it requires employing a system
dynamics model to project the amount of waste generated up to the year 2010 so as to help analyze the implications of dierent MRF site selection alternatives in the
near future.

Tons per Income per Service Center

Tons per Income per Service Center Rate

Tons per Service Center

Tons
Tons Recycled per Service Center

Income Per Service Center Rate

Income per Service Center

Population per Household

NAFTA Income Growth Rate

Population per Service Center

Income per Household

NAFTA Employment Grow Rate

Fig. 3. Generalized form of model 1 used to simulate tonnes generated by income per service center.

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B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

People per House per Service Center

Tonsper Service Center

People per House Rate

NAFTA Employment Growth Rate

Tons Recycled per Service Center
Tons per People per House

Tons per People per House Rate

Tons

Fig. 4. Generalized form of model 2 used to simulate tonnes generated by people per household.

Tons per Service Center

Tons Recycled per service Center

Tons Rate

Fig. 5. Generalized form of model 3 used to simulate tonnes generated by historical amount generated.

3.3. Data collection and analysis

Population and average people per household data
for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000 were collected by census tract from the US Census Bureau (Census, 2003).

The city of San Antonio allocated the census tracts to

the appropriate service center. Data for median household income was likewise allocated yielding values for
population, median household income, and people per
household according to each of the four service center

Income per Household per Service Center

Tons per Service Center

Income per Household Rate

Tons Recycled per Service Center

NAFTA Income Growth Rate

Tons per Income per Household

Tons per Income per Household Rate

Tons

Fig. 6. Generalized form of model 4 used to simulate tonnes generated by income per household.

B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

675

Population per Service Center

Tons per Service Center

Population Rate

NAFTA Employment Growth Rate

Tons per Population

Tons Recycled per Service Center

Tons per Population Rate

Tons

Fig. 7. Generalized form of model 5 used to simulate tonnes generated by population.

Table 5
Simulation results for municipal solid waste generation in San Antonio (tonnes/year)
Model

Northeast

Southeast

Southcentral

Northwest

Total

Base case
1
2
3
4
5
Range
Disparity

93,833
88,238
90,761
92,550
96,481
127,912
88,238127,912
39,674

65,355
93,483
77,825
79,333
82,875
80,208
77,82593,483
15,658

75,058
89,319
87,984
89,251
93,224
91,773
75,05893,224
18,139

113,449
95,085
105,379
109,077
113,748
108,316
95,085113,748
18,663

347,675
366,125
361,949
370,210
386,328
408,209
361,949408,209
46,260

regions (BLS, 2003). Per capita income and population

growth in Texas were further predicted based on the
increasing trend of economic growth due to the impact
of NAFTA (NAFTA (2000)) and related employment
growth (BLS, 2003).
Plotting the data indicated a linear relationship with
time. A linear trend was t to the data using the least

squares method by simple linear regression analysis.

The values of population, median income per household, population per household, and tonnes of waste
collected were regressed individually versus time for
the three US Census periods of 1980, 1990, and 2000
(see Table 1). Also tested were the calculated relationships of income per service center, tonnes of waste

140.000
120.000
Tonnes

100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0
2000
Northloop

2002

2004

Northwest

2006
Southcentral

2008

2010

Southeast

Fig. 8. Solid waste generation simulation as a function of population (model 5).

B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

Tonnes

676

100.000
90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
2000
Northloop

2002

2004

Northwest

2006
Southcentral

2008

2010

Southeast

Fig. 9. Simulation of tonnes generated based on income per service center region (model 1).

Table 6
Income per service center model simulation results at 2010
Income per service center

Northloop

Southeast

Southcentral

Northwest

Total

Total tonnes generated

Total population
Median household income
Total tonnes recycled

88,238
501,037
$53,611
6177

93,483
186,435
$30,486
6252

89,319
273,679
$28,357
6656

95,085
362,805
$47,536
6544

366,125
1,323,956
$159,990
25,629

generated normalized to income, tonnes generated per

capita, tonnes generated per household income, and tonnes generated per household population. With only three
data points, normality is not assumed nor is causality
sought but rather an indication of trend by goodness
of t. In all cases r2 values ranged from 0.89 to 0.99 except for the population per household relationship (r2
range is 0.110.31). The slope of the regressed line was
used as the annual growth rate in the model. NAFTArelated rate converters were developed by determining:
(1) the average rate of increase in employment growth
factored into the population growth rate (see Tables 2
and 3) the average rate of increase in sales from exports
to NAFTA partners factored into the income per sector
growth rate (see Table 3).
3.4. System dynamics modeling
The software package Stella was used to perform
the simulations, which is iconographic software using
basic building blocks such as stocks, ows, and converters (see Fig. 2) that are intuitively assembled to simulate
the dynamic processes of a system. Stocks represent the
accounting of a system component, either spatially or
temporally (i.e., population, waste generated); ows
are the rate at which the component ows in or out of
the stock; and converters modify rates of change and
unit conversions.
Solid waste generation simulation was performed for
each service sector in this study. The predicted amount

of waste generated was simulated using ve models.

Each model simulated solid waste generation (tonnes/
year) as a function of the various factors previously
mentioned (see Table 4). For this simulation, tonnes
generated are represented as a product of two stocks,
rate of generation is a ow, and the economic eect of
NAFTA is shown as a converter. Figs. 37 illustrate
the generalized form of the model used to estimate waste
generation. Each model was run for all service centers
with a time step of 1 year.
For each model, the ratio of tonnes generated to the
driving factor (i.e., population) was established for each
period of record (1980, 1990, and 2000), and regressed
to nd the growth rate for the ratio. This was done to
establish the eect on waste generation due to the factor
in question. Year 2000 values were taken for initial values in the stocks and used to project results yearly until
the year 2010. Total tonnes generated were calculated by
multiplying Tonnes per Population by Population. A
yearly recycling rate was developed by comparing tonnes recycled vs. tonnes of waste collected from the years
19952002 and multiplied by the simulated amount of
tonnes generated to estimate the amount of waste recycled under current conditions.
3.5. Results and discussions
The simulated results for waste generation in the
year 2010 for the four service centers are shown in
Table 5. The estimated amount of waste generation

B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

POPULATION

POPULATION vs. YEAR

600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0

NLSC
NWSC
SCSC
SESC
1980

(a)

1990
2000
YEAR

2010

Population

INCOME

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME VS. YEAR

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

NLSC
NWSC
SCSC
SESC
1980

PERSONS/HOUSEHOLD

(b)

1990
2000
YEAR

2010

Median household in come

HOUSEHOLD VS. YEAR

4
NLSC

NWSC

SCSC

SESC

0
1980

1990

2000

2010

YEAR

(c)

Household size
TONNES VS. YEAR

100000
Tonnes

from regression analysis in terms of population is also

provided as a base case for the purpose of comparison.
The estimates are listed in order of increasing tonnage.
The last row in Table 5 lists the range of projected values
based on the ve models proposed in system dynamics
modeling. These ve interval numbers constitute a prediction matrix that potentially reects the uncertainties
in decision-making. Model 1 or 2 tends to generate more
lower bounds and model 4 or 5 tends to produce more
upper bounds than the others. The reliability of predicted values obtained from regression analysis is
varying over the dierent service areas. It exhibits a potential of underestimation in the Southeast and Southcentral service areas as compared those with interval
numbers.
The disparity in the extremes of the estimates indicates that it is important to choose the most appropriate
model to prevent over-or under-estimation of tonnage
generated. Models 2, 3, 4, and 5 are functions of single
factors and exhibit similar linear growth patterns such
as in Fig. 8. Model 1 (Tonnes per Income), however,
exhibits slightly dierent behavior (see Fig. 9). While
all the service center regions exhibit waste generation increases, the behavior of the increase is markedly dierent. The change in average number of people per
household is dierent than the other factors that aect
waste generation. Average number of people per household is decreasing over time while all other factors are
increasing. This eect is accounted for in the tonnes
per income model. The only model that incorporates
all of the driving factors of population, people per
household, income per household and economic activity
is model 1; therefore, it best reects the dynamics of the
system.
This analysis thus concluded that model 1 might be
selected as the most appropriate model to reect the system dynamics in solid waste generation. Table 6 lists
model 1 with the simulated amount of waste generated
in 2010 per service center and the amount of simulated
waste recycled under the current recycling system. The
recycled amounts of waste in this simulation will be
viewed as the basic amounts as long as the private recycling market is still active. Fig. 10 summarizes historical
records and predictive results of San Antonio population, income, household size, and waste generation.
The increasing trend is phenomenal in all four aspects.
The greatest increase in population by service center
has and will continue to occur in the Northloop and
Northwest service centers (Fig. 10). Median income
shows a steady increase over time with the ratio relative
to service center remaining the same for all service centers. The average persons per household exhibits some
uctuation over the past twenty years with a slight
decreasing trend evident in the Northloop and Northwest service centers. It is this eect, the decrease in persons per household in the Northloop and Northwest

677

80000

NLSC
NWSC
SCSC
SESC

60000
40000
20000
0
1980

1990

2000

2010

YEAR

(d)

Waste generation

Fig. 10. Summary of San Antonio population, household size and

income, and waste generation: (a) population; (b) median household
income; (c) household size; (d) waste generation.

service centers, that accounts for the relative increase

in solid waste generation in the Southcentral and Southeast service centers in the 2010 projections.

4. Conclusion
In this analysis, system dynamics models were developed for the prediction of solid waste generation in
an urban setting having a high economic growth potential. A case study for the City of San Antonio, Texas

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B. Dyson, N.-B. Chang / Waste Management 25 (2005) 669679

presented its unique solutions based on system dynamics

outputs. Five planning models were considered based on
dierent types of system dynamics models, while the
base case was designed according to a traditional regression analysis. All of the ve planning models were based
on an assumption that the existing recycling pattern
through the private sector will remain in the entire planning horizon. Thus, the system will constantly maintain
a minimum level of recycling accomplishment although
participation in public recycling programs remains inactive. Interactions among several system components
within a prescribed time frame were examined dynamically via the use of software package Stella.
The models simulated ve dierent combinations of
factors that inuence solid waste generation. The disparity in the extremes of the estimates indicates that
it is important to choose the most appropriate model
to prevent over-or under-estimation of tonnage generated. Model 1 was chosen as the representative estimation for this reason as well as its incorporation of all
possible driving factors. But the disparity in the extremes of the estimates indicates that systematic uncertainty embedded in the estimation is inuential. Based
on the historical records and predictive results of San
Antonio population, income, and waste generation, it
can be concluded that the increasing trend is phenomenal in all aspects. The modeling results are directly
useful for associated system planning with regard to
site selection and capacity planning of MRF in the
near future.

Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful for the data reports cited
and used in this analysis as well as the technical and
administrative support from many people in the Environmental Services Department of the City of San Antonio, including Daniel Cardenas, Arturo Alvarez, Pamela
Bransford, David McDaniel, Juana Perez, and Rose
Ryan.

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