Jan Burger Financial Model - Assumptions

Jan Burger Level Assumptions

General Assumptions
1. Capex. for new store will be started 2 quarters prior the opening quarter of the stores
2. Capex. for new office will be started one quarter prior to the opening quarter
3. Other asset are assumed to remain same as current balance sheet till 2019
4. No interest is being paid on the loan from holding company
5. No repayment is done to holding company till 2019, no dividend is distributed till 2019
6. Delivery service is assumed to be started from Q1 2016
7. All the expenses per store are assumed to increase by inflation every year
8. Rent expense, utility expense, maintenance, admin and overhead expense is taken
by using average of last 6 months

Number based assumptions

Average sales per store per day
Inflation (YoY till 2019)
Annual sales growth
Food cost as % of sales
Paper cost as % of sales
No. of stores per regional manager
No. of stores per area manager
Marketing expense as % of sales
No. of stores per store accountant
No. of stores per corporate office
No. of days of payable
No. of days of inventory
Increase in average sales due to new product launch
Increase in average sales due to delivery service
Average store ticket size in Q1 2014
Sales Cohert Matrix
Quarter
1st quarter
2nd quarter
3rd quarter and beyond

Delivery Calculation Assumptions

General Assumptions
Delivery service is assumed to be started from Q1 2016
Numbers based Assumptions
Average ticket size (Q4 2014)
Average opening hours of a store
No. of delivery orders as % of total orders in 2016
Annual Increase in delivery orders
No. of delivery orders in peak hour as % of avg. delivery order
Max no. of order delivery per driver per hour
Monthly salary of a driver

Avg. vehicle price

Useful life of vehicle
Avg. maintenance cost per vehicle per quarter as % total cost
Avg. petrol expense per vehicle per day
Increase in average sales due to delivery service

Factory Level Assumptions

General Assumptions
1. Warehouse rent is taken by calculating average of 6 warehouse
2. Accrued expense is assumed to remain same as current balance sheet till 2019
3. Other assets are assumed to remain same as current balance sheet till 2019
4. No repayment of debt is done till 2019
5. Capex. start for factory is three quarter before of opening quarter
6. Capex. start for warehouse is one quarter before of opening quarter
7. All the expenses per store are assumed to increase by inflation every year
8. Rent expense, utility expense, maintenance, admin and overhead expense is taken
by using average of last 6 months

Number based assumptions

5200 Riyal
3%
5%
38.9%
2.60%
15
5
1%
15
100
30
7
5%
5%
31.5

Cohert factor
0.8
0.9
1

31.5 riyal
12
15%
3%
200%
5
4000 Riyal

No. of stores per factory

Factory gross margin
Cost of food & paper as % of cost of sales of stores
No. of days of payable
No. of days of inventory
No. of stores per warehouse
Useful life of production machine
Useful life of constructions

25000 Riyal
10 Years
5%
20 Riyal
5%

200
5%
83%
30
60
100
10
20