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For: Consumer

Product strategy
Professionals

US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013


To 2017
by denee Carrington, January 16, 2013

Key TaKeaWays
Mobile payments adoption Will Be Fueled By Unprecedented Growth
in proximity payments
US mobile payments are expected to reach $90 billion in 2017. In that time,
proximity payments will grow from the smallest of three mobile payment
categories to nearly half of all mobile payments and will reach $41 billion. Lower
barriers to adoption, increased convenience, and early entrants striving for scale
will be important drivers of growth.
despite Growth in peer-To-peer payments, Mobile Remittances Will
lag Behind
Mobile remittances will exceed $4 billion over the next five years. Mobile peer-topeer payments will make up more than 90% of the mobile remittance category but
will be hampered by its economics. Future growth will be realized in cross-border
remittances, which are ripe for disruption, and in the rapidly evolving area of
mobile bill pay.
consumers adopt Mobile payments When its clearly Better Than The
next Best alternative
Mobile remote payments are currently 90% of the mobile payments category
and will continue to grow. The growth of mobile proximity payments, mobile
remittances, and mobile remote payments hinges this reality -- each must deliver
a better, more convenient option to consumers than the next best payment
alternative for a given purchase at a given time.

Forrester research, inc., 60 acorn Park drive, Cambridge, ma 02140 usa


tel: +1 617.613.6000 | Fax: +1 617.613.5000 | www.forrester.com

For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

January 16, 2013

US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017


US Mobile Payments Will Reach $90 Billion By 2017
by Denee Carrington
with Sarah Rotman Epps, Carlton A. Doty, Susan Huynh, Colin Campbell, and
Andia Vokshi

Why Read This Report


Innovation and competitive disruption in mobile payments continued at an accelerated pace throughout
2012, but consumer adoption lagged behind the industry hype. Over the next five years, US consumers
will adopt mobile payments at an accelerating rate, reaching $90 billion by the end of 2017. This report
outlines the drivers of three distinct mobile payments categories and will serve as an essential tool for
product strategists at companies that accept or facilitate payments as they prepare for the business impacts
that broader trial and acceptance of mobile payments will bring.

Table Of Contents

Notes & Resources

2 Mobile Payments Growth Will Accelerate,


Reaching $90 Billion By 2017

Data from the Forrester Research Mobile


Payments Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US) was
used in this report.

Proximity Payments Will Reach $41 Billion In


2017, With Growth Beginning In 2014
Peer-To-Peer Payments Dominate Mobile
Remittances, With Bill Payment On The Rise
Mobile Remote Payments Will Top $45 Billion,
Reflecting Todays Untapped Potential
WHAT IT MEANS

8 Adoption Occurs When Mobile Payments


Offer A Better Alternative
9 Supplemental Material

Related Research Documents


US Mobile Retail Forecast, 2012 To 2017
January 16, 2013
The State of Retailing Online 2012:
Investments In Mobile And Tablet Commerce
September 25, 2012
NFC: What Lies Beyond Contactless
Payments
August 2, 2012
Why The Digital Wallet Wars Matter
August 2, 2012

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For Consumer Product Strategy Professionals

US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017

mobile payments growth will accelerate, reaching $90 billion by 2017


Mobile payments have caught the attention and imagination of industry insiders, venture capital
investors, innovative new entrants, and the larger payments industry incumbents. To date,
however, retailer investment and consumer participation have been nascent.1 But we see that
changing: During the next five years, Forrester expects that mobile payments will move toward
the mainstream. By the end of 2017, US mobile users will spend $90B via mobile payments, a 48%
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the $12.8 billion spent in 2012 (see Figure 1).
Forrester defines a mobile payment as:
A transaction in which the transfer of funds is initiated using a mobile phone excluding the
voice function of the device.2
Forrester segments mobile payments into three categories: 1) mobile proximity payments; 2) mobile
peer-to-peer (P2P) and remittances; and 3) mobile remote commerce, or mCommerce.3 In 2012,
mCommerce represented more than 90% of the total mobile payments. While all three categories
will realize healthy growth, mobile proximity payments will far outpace the growth of mCommerce
and mobile P2P, resulting in a dramatic share shift. By the end of 2017, mCommerce will drop from
90% to 50% share, while proximity payments will jump from 4% to 45% share (see Figure 2).
Figure 1 US Mobile Payments Are Expected To Grow To $90B By 2017
$45,017

Mobile remote commerce


Mobile proximity
Mobile remittances

$38,653

$32,038
$40,812
$27,659

$25,001
$18,162

$15,785

$11,579
$549
2012

$709

2013

$1,061

$3,782 $1,787

$1,250

2014

$2,445
2015

$3,253
2016

$4,222
2017

(in millions)
Note: does not include purchases made on a tablet device
Source: Forrester Research Mobile Payments Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US)
89161

2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

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January 16, 2013

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US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017

Figure 2 A Dramatic Share Shift Will Occur As Mobile Proximity Payments Outpace mCommerce
Distribution of mobile payments spending by type
90%

89%

82%

64%

56%

50%

Mobile remote commerce


Mobile proximity
Mobile remittances
45%

40%
31%

12%
4%
6%
2012

5%
6%
2013

6%
2014

5%
2015

5%
2016

5%
2017

Note: does not include purchases made on a tablet device


Source: Forrester Research Mobile Payments Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US)
89161

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

Proximity Payments Will Reach $41 Billion In 2017, With Growth Beginning In 2014
Mobile proximity payments is currently the smallest of the three mobile payment categories, but
we expect it to be the fastest-growing segment, increasing from $549 million in 2012 to $41 billion
in 2017, an aggressive 137% CAGR. Although proximity payments will gain momentum each year,
Forrester expects adoption to have the greatest acceleration in the 2014 to 2015 time frame. Why
2014? Because it will take time for proximity payment solutions to:

Reduce barriers to entry for early adopters. Historically, in-store contactless payments

have suffered from the classic chicken-or-egg standoff, with merchants waiting for consumer
adoption and vice versa, but we are headed toward a truce. 2013 will be a year of testing and
learning. Product strategists will continue to refine their offerings to deliver meaningful benefits
that outweigh the associated costs for early adopters (both merchants and consumers). There
will be even more mobile payment options available, including offerings from payment industry
incumbents such as banks, networks, and retailers. Early adopters will begin to trial one or
more solutions with relatively low barriers to entry and challenge the products to deliver a better
experience than simply swiping a card or paying cash.

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US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017

Increase convenience and deliver clear consumer benefits. Very few consumers have actually

made an in-store purchase using mobile proximity payments, but a growing number are open
to doing so. In 2012, 36% of online consumers with mobile phones said they were open to using
proximity payments (see Figure 3). We expect the fastest growth to be with lower-cost purchases
and in contexts where mobile proximity payments offer greater efficiency and convenience
over other methods of payments, such as: 1) an alternative to cash transactions such as vending,
parking, transit, and smaller retail transactions; 2) in restaurants quick service, fast casual,
and casual dining where customers frequently have to wait in line or wait at the table to pay;
and 3) with tier-one retailers that have integrated access to coupons, offers, and rewards into the
payment experience.4

Demonstrate that early implementations can scale. As more merchants with scale (e.g.,

Starbucks), accept mobile payment solutions that are easy for consumers to adopt (e.g., Square),
it will create momentum for broader acceptance of proximity payments among their peers and
usage among consumers. Meanwhile, the merchant acceptance of Near Field Communications
(NFC)-based proximity payments will begin ramping up. As a growing number of merchants
seek to modernize their point-of-sale (POS) systems, many driven by the Europay, MasterCard,
and Visa (EMV) acceptance mandate, NFC-based mobile payment acceptance will increase.5
In the 2012 Shop.org survey conducted by Forrester Research, 36% of IT executives surveyed
reported that they already have implemented or have plans to implement in-store mobile
payments such as Google Wallet by the end of 2013, and 42% reported that they already have
implemented or have plans to implement PayPal (see Figure 4).

Figure 3 Consumers Show Growing Interest In Mobile Proximity Payments, But Actual Use Is Low
How interested are you in paying for merchandise in a physical retailer store using your cell phone
instead of cash or a debit/credit card (e.g., by tapping cell phone at the point of sale)?
(Responses on a scale of 1 [not interested] to 5 [very interested])

Already
use this
2%

36% of US consumers
are open to in-store
mobile payment.

3
14%

1 and 2
64%

4 and 5
20%

Base: 3,842 US online adults 18+ (online monthly or more) with mobile phones
Source: North American Technographics Retail Online Survey, Q2 2012 (US)
89161

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US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017

Figure 4 Proximity Payments Are Becoming A Priority For Many Retailers, But Acceptance Still Lags
What priority do mobile payment systems have in your overall
development list and budget this year?
Mobile payments
are not on the
development list
or in the budget
for 2012
33%

High priority
26%

Medium priority
16%
Low priority
26%
Inyour brick-and-mortar stores, what type of payments have you either already implemented
or are considering implementing later this year?
Already in
all stores

Implemented
in some stores

Pilot phase

Will implement
in 2012

93%
3%

Branded
credit cards

Alternative (e.g.,
Google Wallet)

No plans at
this time
2%

Traditional bank
credit cards

PayPal

Will implement
in 2013

71%

5%

3%
24%

3%
13% 5%
3%

8%

13%

58%

3%
11% 5%

14%

65%

Base: 43 retail IT executives


(percentages may not total 100 because of rounding)
Source: The State of Retailing Online 2012, a Shop.org research survey conducted by Forrester Research
89161

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

Peer-To-Peer Payments Dominate Mobile Remittances, With Bill Payment On The Rise
In 2012, consumers spent $709M in mobile remittances.6 Ninety-eight percent of this spend was
domestic P2P payments. Although far less hyped than proximity payments, consumers mobile
P2P spend exceeded their mobile proximity spend in 2012. This pattern will repeat in 2013, but
by 2014 proximity payment growth will far outpace mobile remittance growth. Over the next five
years, mobile remittances will grow at a 43% CAGR to reach $4.2 billion in 2017. We attribute this
relatively lackluster growth in mobile remittances to:

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Lack of ROI in mobile P2P payments. Mobile P2P will approach $4 billion in 2017, but will

exist mainly as pathway for engagement. Mobile P2P is one of the earliest forms of mobile
payments. The use case for immediately sending money to another person instead of using
cash, writing a check, or waiting to get online is easily relatable. Despite this, the tech archives
are full of failed P2P solutions (even Yahoo had an online P2P service at one time).7 Mobile P2P
providers (such as Dwolla, PayPal, and Venmo) that have had the greatest staying power rely
on other sources of revenue to fund their consumer P2P service. Many banks have developed
P2P services as a means to deepen customer engagement by consolidating their financial
transactions. We expect to see few new competitors in this space, except those that, like Chirpify,
use P2P as a pathway to engagement leading to larger commerce opportunities.

Underdeveloped cross-border mobile remittances. The US is the largest international remitter,


yet outbound mobile remittance spend will continue to be a small fraction of the total market.
In 2010, US consumers sent $51 billion internationally, a $2 billion year-over-year (YOY)
increase despite a weak economy.8 Outbound mobile cross-border remittances were expected to
reach only $14 million in 2012 and will reach only $290 million by 2017. Even with a stronger
US economy, we expect new remittance regulations effective in 2013 to temporarily dampen
short-term growth.9 A longer view shows that the international remittance market is ripe for
disruption and that mobile will be a key element of growth. The options to send international
remittances can be very expensive and inconvenient, typically requiring in-person transactions.
Companies such as Xoom are solving for this by providing lower-cost and more-convenient
alternatives where consumers can send money online or via mobile app. As mobile money
services such as these expand and continue to offer secure and cost-effective international
remittances options (especially in Latin America, India, and China, the geographies that receive
the majority of US outbound remittances), consumers will flock to the convenience and access
that mobile money transfer services can deliver.

Nascent mobile bill-pay capabilities. Forty-nine million consumers, or 17% of total mobile

subscribers, will use mobile bill-pay services by 2017, up from 18 million users in 2012.10
Future growth is tied to bank and biller capabilities as they enable their online bill-pay services
in the mobile channel. Vendors servicing both groups are answering the call. Recent product
introductions include MiTek Systems Mobile Photo Bill Pay service for financial institutions
and Online Resources Corporation (ORCC) Mobile Browser Bill Pay solution for billers. As
biller capabilities improve and mobile banking features and usage increase, well see greater
adoption of mobile bill payment among consumers who value the anytime, anywhere
convenience that mobile delivers.

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Mobile Remote Payments Will Top $45 Billion, Reflecting Todays Untapped Potential
mCommerce made up the vast majority of all mobile payments in 2012, reaching an estimated $12B,
more than double the 2011 mCommerce spend. In the first half of 2012, only 12% of online mobile
phone owners said they had used their mobile phones to purchase a product.11 We expect both
the number of mobile shoppers and the average amount spent per shopper to increase, and these
trends already began to bear out during the holiday 2012 shopping season. Forrester predicts that
mCommerce will top $45 billion by 2017, growing at a 31% CAGR, making it the slowest growing
but still the largest mobile payment category.
As consumer trial and confidence in mobile shopping grow, we will see an increase in mobile
shopping products and services that make the experience:

More convenient. One barrier to mobile shopping is the friction involved in the checkout

and payment experience. It can be cumbersome on a mobile device and can impede purchase
conversion, but there are a growing number of mobile payment solutions that intend to
streamline this experience by providing autofill and quick checkout solutions. One such
vendor is Payfone, which has a 1 Touch Checkout experience, similar to Amazon.coms 1-Click
checkout, and securely transfers the mobile shoppers payment credentials from their bank to
the merchant during checkout.

More secure. Sixty percent of online consumers who use mobile payments are concerned

about their privacy and the safety and security of their transactions.12 This is a leading concern
of merchants as well. As mobile payments of all types gain greater adoption, hackers and
fraudsters are beginning to test the bounds of mobile payment products, mobile sites, and apps.
To reassure and protect mobile shoppers, product strategists and mobile commerce providers
are introducing more-robust user and device authentication methods and data encryption
features. New ventures, such as Trustonic (formed by ARM, Gemalto, and Giesecke & Devrient,
all leaders in secure technology) are emerging to create greater trust without increased friction.

More integrated. Todays mobile consumers may bounce between options that include

shopping online, on their mobile phones, and in-store. The larger mobile payment providers are
working to ensure they can meet these consumers payment needs whenever and wherever they
shop. Digital wallet providers such as MasterCards PayPass Wallet service, PayPal, and Visas
V.me are targeting mobile and online shoppers to win trial and adoption of their digital wallets
online, with the intention to transition that digital wallet use to in-person POS use of mobile
proximity payments. Similarly, Google Wallet has now expanded beyond its initial focus on
proximity payments to include eCommerce and mCommerce as well.

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W h at I t M e a n s

adoption occurs when mobile Payments offer a better alternative


Consumers are slow to adopt new methods of payment, even when they offer greater convenience.
This has been true through the adoption of travelers and personal checks, plastic cards, and
alternative online payments. Given the rapid adoption of new mobile technology by todays
consumers, product strategists may expect the rapid adoption of mobile payments as well. But
consumers are not so easily seduced when it comes to payments. Forresters forecast reflects
significant hurdles in the way of growth. Slow ramp-up of merchant acceptance is one of the hurdles,
but not the only one.

Consumers adopt mobile payment when it is clearly better than the next best alternative.
Mobile remote payments are part of the anytime, anywhere context of mobile, supported by
improving mobile commerce experiences that together create a more convenient alternative
to leaving ones couch, waiting to get home or to work, or going into a store. As a result, we
have seen much faster consumer adoption of mCommerce than of proximity payments.
There is no question that lack of merchant acceptance of proximity payments continues to
be a big hurdle, but its not the only one. In most cases, traditional payments for in-person
purchases work so well that mobile proximity payments would lose a head-to-head battle
(cash would be the notable exception, especially when exact change in required) because the
benefit to the consumer simply hasnt been clear.

Value-added services of coupons, loyalty, and e-receipts will be table stakes. Most

proximity payments solutions will exist in the context of mobile digital wallets that include
value-added services such as offers, coupons, loyalty, and e-receipts. Some will have morerobust, automated solutions that will appeal to many consumers. While these services
will help create a reason for consumers to trial proximity payments and perhaps even to
use them for specific shopping occasions, consumers will need more to motivate ongoing,
sustained use and adoption.

Context will be the key to killer apps that achieve consumer preference. Variations in

the purchase experience whether its attended or unattended, involves a quick checkout or
long lines, includes self-service or personalized service, or consists of impulse buys or more
deliberate purchases all can affect the consumers choice of how to complete the purchase
most conveniently and move on. Further, knowing the best funding source for a given
purchase will be attractive to some consumers (e.g., maximizing rewards, available balance,
etc.). As consumers demand better, more-relevant mobile services, mobile payment product
strategists must capture and integrate purchase context and insights about a consumers
alternatives. Products with these killer apps that deliver a more convenient experience,
enabling a consumer to make smarter use of time and money for that purchase, at that
location, and at that moment, will achieve consumer preference and sustained use over time.

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US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017

Supplemental Material
Methodology
As part of the forecast modeling, Forrester develops comprehensive historical and base-year market
size estimates based on a variety of sources, including public financial documents, executive
interviews, Forresters proprietary primary consumer and executive research, and analysis of the
Internet traffic database.
All of Forresters forecasts are designed by a dedicated team of forecasting analysts who build
the models, conduct extensive industry research, and manage the process of formally building
consensus among Forresters analysts. Forecast analysts have backgrounds in investment banking,
management consulting, and market research, where they developed extensive experience with
industry and company forecasting.
For more information on Forresters ForecastView offering, including access to additional details
and metrics not included in this report, please contact us at data@forrester.com.
Forrester conducted the North American Technographics Retail Online Survey, Q2 2012 (US),
an online survey fielded in April 2012 of 4,491 US individuals ages 18 to 88. For results based
on a randomly chosen sample of this size (N = 4,491), there is 95% confidence that the results
have a statistical precision of plus or minus 1.46% of what they would be if the entire population
of US online individuals ages 18 and older had been surveyed. Forrester weighted the data by
age, gender, income, broadband adoption, and region to demographically represent the adult US
online population. The survey sample size, when weighted, was 4,358. (Note: Weighted sample
sizes can be different from the actual number of respondents to account for individuals generally
underrepresented in online panels.) Please note that this was an online survey. Respondents who
participate in online surveys have in general more experience with the Internet and feel more
comfortable transacting online. The data is weighted to be representative for the total online
population on the weighting targets mentioned, but this sample bias may produce results that differ
from Forresters offline benchmark survey. The sample was drawn from members of MarketTools
online panel, and respondents were motivated by receiving points that could be redeemed for a
reward. The sample provided by MarketTools is not a random sample. While individuals have been
randomly sampled from MarketTools panel for this particular survey, they have previously chosen
to take part in the MarketTools online panel.
Shop.org and Forrester Research annually execute an annual study with online retailers regarding
key metrics and areas of focus; this years study focused entirely on mobile commerce and mobile
retail execution. Two surveys were fielded in the late spring and early summer of 2012 and targeted
retail loss-prevention executives and retail CIOs.

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US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017

The Shop.org/Forrester mobile surveys resulted in 43 and 82 complete and partial responses from
retail CIOs and loss prevention executives, respectively, across a variety of industries, including
apparel, footwear, general merchandise, home furnishings, and personal care.
Eighty-three percent of the retail CIOs were from multichannel retailers (more than 50% of sales are
through stores), and 60% were from retailers with more than 200 stores.
Ninety-one percent of the loss prevention executives were from multichannel retailers, and 71%
were from retailers with more than 200 stores.
Endnotes
1

Retailer investment in the mobile channel remains modest as companies struggle to value the ROI around
mobile investments and cautiously navigate many difficult questions, such as unclear objectives, how many
devices to bet on, whether to partner with third parties, whether to develop an app, how to integrate mobile
into store operations, and how to value the impact of mobile on overall sales. For more information, see the
September 25, 2012, The State Of Retailing Online 2012: Investments In Mobile And Tablet Commerce
report.

This forecast covers US consumer mobile payments. It does not include purchases made on a tablet device
or programmable NFC stickers attached to mobile handsets. Source: Forrester Research Mobile Payments
Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US).

Forrester defines mobile proximity payments as those initiated using a mobile handset at the retail point of
sale in person, both attended (e.g., retail shops) and unattended (e.g., vending, parking, and transit). The
forecast includes both hardware-enabled and non-hardware-enabled technologies, but excludes payments
made through a programmable NFC sticker attached to a mobile handset.
Forrester defines mobile remittances as domestic and cross-border person-to-person funds transfers initiated
using the mobile handset, using either a preloaded application or a browser-based application to initiate,
authenticate, and transfer funds. The forecast includes all transfers that originate from the US. The forecast
excludes bank-to-bank fund transfers and donations made via mobile SMS to charities or campaigns. The
forecast includes mobile bill payment users and user growth but not dollars transacted. Mobile bill payments
are bill payments for utilities or credit cards that are authenticated through a mobile handset.
Forrester defines mobile remote commerce, or mCommerce, as a transaction over a mobile handset
where payment information is captured on the mobile phone for the purchase of products or services (i.e.,
retail products, travel, coupons/deals, and games). It does not include SMS commerce (e.g., donations),
newspaper subscriptions, stock trades, and investments gambling.

Forrester measures a products convenience as the net result of the collective benefits less all of the products
barriers. Convenience with proximity mobile payments can be delivered before the payment, during the
payment, or after the payment and can enrich the consumers commerce experience.

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US Mobile Payments Forecast, 2013 To 2017

When it launched MasterCard PayPass an NFC-based contactless mobile payment technology in the
UK for use on buses, MasterCard shared research showing that UK commuters waste an entire day every
year due to queuing and other payment-related issues. They cite the fact that one in 10 passengers have
missed a bus because they didnt have correct change or were in line to buy a ticket. Source: MasterCard
Helps Bus Passengers Speed Up their Journey Times with Contactless Card Payments, MasterCard press
release, December 12, 2012 (http://newsroom.mastercard.com/press-releases/mastercard-helps-buspassengers-speed-up-their-journey-times-with-contactless-card-payments/).
5

NFC deployment is underway, but widespread usage for payments is still two to three years away. Although
NFC is coming, proximity mobile payments arent waiting, as there are alternatives to NFC that are driving
growth. Consumer NFC handset enablement is underway and will continue with each new upgrade cycle
(except for iOS handsets for now). For more information, see the August 2, 2012, NFC: What Lies Beyond
Contactless Payments report.

The Forrester forecast for mobile remittances includes domestic and cross-border peer-to-peer payments
that originate in the US. Although we consider mobile bill payments to be remittances as well, only
transaction volumes (not dollar volumes) are included in this forecast.

In 2000, Yahoo purchased DotBank.com and launched a P2P service called PayDirect to support its online
auction business. PayDirect was extended to mobile for several years as well, but despite launching within
weeks of PayPal, PayDirect failed to scale and was ultimately shut down.

Source: Migration And Remittances Factbook 2011, The World Bank (http://siteresources.worldbank.
org/INTLAC/Resources/Factbook2011-Ebook.pdf) and Tracy Alloway and Shahien Nasiripour, US
banks warn on money transfer rule, The Financial Times, November 20, 2012 (http://www.ft.com/cms/
s/0/31f18600-1ecc-11e2-b906-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2FJ0domyW).

The Remittance Transfer Rule is an amendment to Regulation E, the Electronic Fund Transfer Act. It is set
to take affect in February 2013 and is intended to create greater disclosure and transparency to consumers
about the total cost of money transfer, including the fees, taxes, and exchange rates. The rule is mandated
by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, formed as an outcome of the Dodd-Frank financial reforms.
Source: Remittance Transfer Rule (Amendment to Regulation E), Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
(http://www.consumerfinance.gov/regulations/final-remittance-rule-amendment-regulation-e/).

10

Source: Forrester Research Mobile Payments Forecast, 2012 To 2017 (US).

11

This data excludes consumers who purchase digital content such as apps and ring tones. Source: North
American Technographics Retail Online Survey, Q2 2012 (US).

12

Source: North American Technographics Online Benchmark Survey (Part 2), Q3 2012 (US, Canada).

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