Contact:

Tom Swiss
(773) 485-9477
January 26, 2015

Emanuel Maintains Commanding Lead

Mayor holds 10-point lead over Garcia head-to-head
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, an independent polling company, is conducting weekly polls for the Mayor
of Chicago. Respondents are selected by random sampling to match Municipal Election turnout ratios
(see Methodology).
January 24, 2015 n= 950

Rahm Emanuel

375

39.5%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

171

18.0%

Willie Wilson

105

11.1%

Robert Bob Fioretti

71

7.5%

William Dock Walls

17

1.8%

211

22.2%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.24% at 95% Confidence Interval

January 17, 2015 n= 1,010

Rahm Emanuel

384

38.0%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

166

16.4%

Willie Wilson

107

10.6%

Robert Bob Fioretti

68

6.7%

William Dock Walls

15

1.5%

270

26.7%

Undecided

Margin of Error +/- 3.15% at 95% Confidence Interval

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 1



ANALYSIS
There is little question Rahm Emanuel will lead the February 24, 2015 Municipal Election. The only
question is whether he can avoid an April 7, 2015 run-off against Jesus Chuy Garcia. Emanuel will need
to get 50% of the undecided voters to avoid a run-off. If Emanuel is forced into an April 7th run-off, he
has a commanding 10-point lead over Garcia.
January 24, 2015 n= 725

Rahm Emanuel

398

54.9%

Jesus Chuy Garcia

327

45.1%

Margin of Error +/- 3.71% at 95% Confidence Interval

The African American community has been upset most of the school closings occurred in their
community. In a breakdown of the 211 respondents in the 8 Wards (6-9, 17, 21, 24, and 34) with an
African American population of 90% or more, only a third favor Emanuel. This 34% stands in marked
contrast to his 59% black support in 2011. Nearly 1 in 3 black voters remain undecided. If millionaire
Wilson or CTU-supported Garcia start gaining more traction, Emanuel will face a run-off with Garcia.
African American Wards (Jan. 17th poll)
Emanuel
Wilson
Garcia
Fioretti
Walls
Undecided

72
48
19
7
2
63

34.1%
22.7%
9.0%
3.3%
1.0%
29.9%

Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still much room for further
development in this race. The final order wont change but it remains to be seen if Emanuels under-
funded opponents can drag him under the 50% mark.


Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 2


METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of
the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10%
voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns

CROSSTABS January 17th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

468
542

46%
54%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
96
9.5%
Age 31 - 45
281
27.8%
Age 46 - 64
357
35.4%
Age 65 plus
275
27.3%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7

Ward 26
10
Ward 27
22
Ward 28
31
Ward 29
20
Ward 30
7
Ward 31
6
Ward 32
22

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 3

20
15
33
29
30
31
20


Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

23
34
8
19
8
13
19
8
16
21
30
45
23
29
10
15
18
14

Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

15
36
15
11
16
17
19
16
22
21
14
18
17
17
30
34
24
19

CROSSTABS January 24th Poll
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

444
506

47%
53%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
79
8.3%
Age 31 - 45
262
27.6%
Age 46 - 64
353
37.2%
Age 65 plus
255
26.9%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 4



Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25

13
20
39
30
29
29
22
41
27
7
11
12
13
8
10
9
17
18
30
16
26
6
15
18
6

Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50

9
19
30
21
11
15
20
11
25
9
6
22
13
17
22
18
19
26
17
22
29
27
35
18
16

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161 Page 5