Professional Documents
Culture Documents
27/01/2015
The future is dark for National bank of Greece. It is steadily going down. It attempted a
short-term reversal before the elections, but the pattern was not triggered. The bearish
energy should now dominate. The stock is doomed to make new lows in the coming
months. It should be in need of a bailout...
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Alpha Bank is steadily losing its shareholders. It has not yet broken below support at
0.39, but it is set to do so. The target will be at 0.2, half the support, 1/4 of the recent
peak at 0.8.
Greek 10-year yields are in a rounding bottom. The pattern is slow to form, but once the
neckline is passed, it sky-rockets. The neckline stands at 12.35%. Chances are that we
will test the level to check whether it holds or not. This is how long European Finance
Ministers have to negotiate with Tsipras...
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Can Italy, Spain, and other European countries survive the Greek write-down?
The FSTE MIB put/call ratio is not yet at its all-time low. It is below 0.7 though, meaning
that there are many more calls than puts being traded. This is a sign of optimism. When
the put/call ratio reaches an extreme low, it is a sign that optimism has turned into
complacency. We may have a few more days before this happens, but we are already
very stretched.
The Put/Call ratio for the Eurostoxx 50 is not yet below 1, but very close to. This
situation may last just a few more days, but it is very stretched too.
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The implied volatility of the Eurostoxx 50 has been falling since the ECB meeting. It is not
yet at its support though. It should be able to fall back to 17.8% in the coming weeks.
The Greek insolvency may not affect European stocks too badly in the immediate future.
If you are long the Stoxx 600, we advise you to use a short stop-loss. 368.48 appears on
intraday chart and can be used to protect profits.
If you are not long yet, it is wise to be patient, or to be ready to use the same very tight
stop-loss. Indeed, the support that could be tested in case of a small panic is 351, the
previous major resistance. It is very far away.
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