G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP

1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20009
Tel: (202) 234 -5570
Fax: (202) 232 -8134
www.hartresearch.com

MEMORANDUM
TO:

California Latino Legislative Caucus

FROM:

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

DATE:

February 2, 2015

RE:

Recent Statewide Survey about 2016 US Senate Election

From January 27 to 29, 2015, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 600

likely California voters in the June 2016 primary. The survey, which has a margin
of error of 4 percentage points, is representative of a statewide sample by region,
partisanship, and ethnicity.
While the campaign to succeed Senator Boxer is very much in flux, with
the field far from settled, our polling data indicates that a Latino candidate
could mount a strong challenge (in fact, the best-known Latino already
starts in a competitive position), and has the chance to energize an
electorate that is very pro-Democratic.
The following memo presents the key findings:
A plurality of primary voters expresses a preference to elect a Democrat
(48%) over a Republican (40%) in the generic ballot test for US senator.
Latinos in particular have a strong affinity for a Democrat, voting Democratic by an
overwhelming 66% to 20%.
Among the various figures mentioned as candidates (potential or
otherwise) for the US Senate seat, Kamala Harris and Antonio Villaraigosa
have the highest statewide profiles.

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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP

Selected Public Figures Name Recognition
Antonio Villaraigosa

66%

Kamala Harris

62%

Loretta Sanchez

46%

Alex Padilla

41%

Ashley Swearengin

26%

Adam Schiff

25%

Xavier Becerra

25%

By virtue of having the highest name recognition, both Harris and Villaraigosa have
respectable name recognition outside their respective political bases. Harris has
76% name recognition in the San Francisco media market, while three-fifths of
voters in the LA media market recognize her. Villaraigosa is known by more than
four in five voters in the LA media market, while slightly fewer than half the voters
in the San Francisco media market know him.
A hypothetical four-way match-up finds a very competitive situation, with
the lone Republican (Ashley Swearengin) holding a narrow lead over
Kamala Harris, and Antonio Villaraigosa maintaining a competitive
position.

Preference in Four-Way Senate Trial Heat

Undecided
Adam 19%
Schiff
4%

Ashley
Swearengin
31%

Antonio
Villaraigosa
18%

Swearengin
Harris
Villaraigosa
Schiff
Undecided

LA
media
31%
24%
24%
6%
14%

SF
media Latinos
24%
17%
42%
20%
15%
44%
1%
5%
18%
14%

28%
Kamala
Harris

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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP

There are several encouraging poll findings regarding the potential for
Antonio Villaraigosa, or another Latino candidate with the ability to gain
statewide name recognition, to gain support in a primary election that is
fluid.
First, of the candidates named in the previous trial heat, Villaraigosa is the
top second choice in the four-way trial heat for US senator.

Preference in Four-Way Senate Trial Heat,

If First Choice Does Not Run
Antonio
Villaraigosa
26%

Undecided
35%

6%
Ashley
Swearengin

Kamala
Harris
19%
14%
Adam
Schiff

Second, the proportion of Latinos in our survey of primary voters was 17%, which
is a reasonable estimate for a traditional primary election, but far below the
population of voting-age Latinos (38%), the proportion of Latinos who are
registered voters (27%), AND the proportion of Latinos who voted in the 2012
presidential election (22%). There is some indication from our poll that a
viable Latino candidate could generate enthusiasm among this
constituency and even expand its turnout; overall, voters say they would feel
more favorable toward a Latino candidate by 13% (compared with 5% less
favorable), but that result increases to 33% more favorable among Latinos
(higher than, for example, the 27% of women who feel more favorable toward a
woman candidate).
In summary, our poll mirrors other recently released surveys which show Kamala
Harris with a head start among Democratic candidates, but her advantage over her
potential opponents is far from overwhelming given that she has been on the
statewide ballot TWICE since 2010. Given the fluidity that is typical of primary
elections and a constituency that has not voted in strong numbers but has the
potential to be energized, there is real potential here for a credible Latino
candidate.

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